UIC Breeders' Cup PK6 Project? (YES!)

[Badactor]

Are we interested in taking a shot at a PK6 score @ Keeneland?

EDIT 10/27: ...and the answer is a resounding YES!

Only $25 for your SHARE of excitement & ROI from UIC BC PK6 Project.

ENJOY THE GAME!

Paypal [e-mail]
Venmo @bev-Hendry
Zelle 215-221-2670

[eye123]

This is something we have not done in a long time. Isn't it about time we do it again ? How great would it be to share in something like this. Best get it set up earlier rather than later. I'd be a part.

[dblakers]

You mean the pick 5. Nobody will be within 7 lengths of Flightline. Might be one of the most talented horses we have ever seen. 

[1hooper]

Some favorites that got beat last year at Del Mar.
Gamine
Jackies Warrior
Letrushka
War Like Goddess
Tarnawa
Essential Quality

[arsignman]

Sept 15, 2022 7:29:16 GMT -5 dblakers said:

You mean the pick 5. Nobody will be within 7 lengths of Flightline. Might be one of the most talented horses we have ever seen. 

All good horses get beat !!

[tc]

I agree it is likely to b a pick 5 and we should probably treat it as such.
Nonetheless I am interested.

[1hooper]

The 2020 Breeders Cup P6 at Keeneland started 17-1, 18-1 and 73-1.
Bring a big bankroll.

[eye123]

If I'm not mistaken, a few years back we went after a mandatory carryover with a bankroll in the thousands.(collected among the members) But then again, that was back then.

[dblakers]

I agree great horses have been beat, but Flightline just seems different. He runs 1:08 for 6F, 1:21 for 7F, 1:33 for a mile, 1:59 for 1 mile 1/4 and he isn't really ever asked in any race on different tracks. The word special is not enough when talking about this horse. When is the last time we seen someone carry their speed like this? Dr. Fager?

[jolyb]

Sept 15, 2022 13:48:26 GMT -5 eye123 said:

,

If I'm not mistaken, a few years back we went after a mandatory carryover with a bankroll in the thousands.(collected among the members) But then again, that was back then.

eye123, if memory serves me, about 8 years ago a UIC effort was made to take down a Gulfstream Park pick 6 on a mandatory payout day that had grown to a record size.  I believe that a UIC pool of around $1,700 or so had been assembled to attack a pick 6 in which each ticket was $0.20 (I could be wrong on that point).  The Gulfstream Park racing secretary wrote conditions that led to each race in the sequence being fully subscribed and the handicapping was extremely challenging.  There were no obvious singles or even doubles.

The greatest difficulty was creating a wager that had a reasonable chance of hitting all 6 winners and still staying within the subscribed bankroll.  When you play a pick 6 the cost of the final bet can escalate very quickly just by adding one additional contender.  A single ticket that goes 3 x 4 x 3 x 4 x 3 x 4 has 1728 possible combinations.  In many BC races, going 3 or even 4 deep doesn't really do an adequate job of covering all of the legitimate contenders, so deciding whom to leave out can be a very tough task. If you start adding picks to go 5 or 6 deep, the total cost soars.  I believe that last year's base bet for the BC pick 6 was $1.

In the Gulfstream effort, the Stephen Christ "A" ,"B" , "C" and "X" approach was used to create multiple tickets in an effort to reduce the overall cost of the bet.  There are lots of software applications available to help manage this task and figure the cost of including or excluding various horses. 

If you can find an absolute standout to single and make the bet a virtual pick 5, that can reduce the cost significantly, but that also means you will be playing the same key horse that "everyone" else will be keying and miss out on the jackpot payoff a winner would receive if that "can't miss" horse doesn't win.

Ironically, in the Gulfstream effort 8 years ago, the day before the mandatory payout was to occur, a single player took down the entire carryover pool of several million dollars and made the UIC effort for the following day impractical.

[1hooper]

Sept 15, 2022 15:39:16 GMT -5 dblakers said:

I agree great horses have been beat, but Flightline just seems different. He runs 1:08 for 6F, 1:21 for 7F, 1:33 for a mile, 1:59 for 1 mile 1/4 and he isn't really ever asked in any race on different tracks. The word special is not enough when talking about this horse. When is the last time we seen someone carry their speed like this? Dr. Fager?

1:08.4 Breeders Cup Sprint
1:21.6 Malibu
1:33.8 Mervyn Leroy
1:46 Woodward
1:56.8* Del Mar Handicap (old configuration) passed the mile in 1:34 flat

[eye123]

jolyb...If I'm not mistaken Bev collected the money on the pool and Warren made out the ticket for the pool we played.(different from the one you mentioned,I think) I remember the process as fun. Something I'd be a part of again.

[goldandmyrrh]

As I recall, we had a UIC pool back in 2014 and 2016 at Gulfstream. 2014 was the year that Dan Borislow took down the P6 for 6 million on the day before mandatory day, in a mysterious 7k wager that was all-all-all-(1-4)-all-all. Our mandatory wager was dead, as was Dan Borislow 7 weeks later of an apparent heart attack. In 2016 with a near 10 million mandatory pool we put in a main ticket and secondary tickets. We lost 1 race? in the sequence that wound up coming back near 100k. I helped put together the wager in a fun joint effort with JolyB, Spider, CherokeeScot, and the general board. I'd be interested in a Breeders Cup p6, maybe we can hit that. I wouldn't be involved in the handicapping, but I enjoy the camaradrie of these UIC joint efforts.

[5wide]

I'm in if we do a group ticket.

[bobtailnag]

Count me in!

[bobtailnag]

Dell, why don't you set a minimum amount of money you think you would need to make a reasonably shot at it. If we don't hit that number but it's with in, say, 20%, I'd be willing to add more to the kitty and I know others would also pony up a little more.

[shoes]

As someone who plays Pick sixes a few times a year (BC, Friday-Sat, Osks and Derby Days, Preakness, Belmont Days and mandatory payout days, (Back when I used to play Santa Anita every weekend I would play pick 6s on just routine days too. I am always interested in the process of putting tickets together. The most I ever put into a ticket was $48 and the typical range is $16-36. With those constraints I have to have some rules: I need a minimum of 2 singles, 3 is better and I need to have at least 2 horses who are long enough odds to make the payoff large. I'll use short priced favorites if I really think they are overwhelmingly the best. This strategy is never going to result in a high 5 figure and up payout (probably) but It's fun and I'm assured of having a lifetimes positive ROI by virtue of Hitting the Derby day pick 6 ending with Orb for $17 k plus On a $12 ticket. I also hit a couple of small ones at Santa Anita for about $900 and $1200, but it's hard.

What we are attempting to do here, and I don't disagree with the premise, is hit a really big one, the kind I am not likely to ever do on my own. Pooling money to increase coverage affords that chance. The problem is that you always going up against far larger syndicates which you can't hope to match.

Another problem in my mind is that utilizing a consensus approach, is always going to be hard, and the compromises made to include multiple peoples top picks is either going to get too expensive or result in hard feelings. I almost think that more than 2 people putting a ticket together is too many. I could be wrong though, I often am. I feel like you need to have ideally 2 key price plays in the sequence and if you lose the bet to some very logical picks, then you ned to be philosophical about it.

Because I very much respect the handicapping talent on this board and the idea of a nice group win and the camaraderie of the effort is appealing, I would definitely contribute funds to a ticket as a pure investor without input on the selections.

[damascus]

Count me in

Damascus

[bobtailnag]

It appears the idea of a group BC Pk6 adventure has come to a screeching halt. IF some are still interested it will require some number of us to carry some of the burden of the organization process. What's the minimum investment needed to join the brotherhood? $25? $50? More? PayPal seems to be the most convenient way. When to send the investments? How about the Monday before the event? Because some might prefer to send a check and that's fine but make sure it's in the hands of the banker by that Monday. If it's going to happen, we have to make it happen.

[bitowisdom]

Ohhhh, Yes. Set up a page and let the investments flow in.

[cherokeescot]

Sept 24, 2022 22:42:54 GMT -5 bobtailnag said:

It appears the idea of a group BC Pk6 adventure has come to a screeching halt. IF some are still interested it will require some number of us to carry some of the burden of the organization process. What's the minimum investment needed to join the brotherhood? $25? $50? More? PayPal seems to be the most convenient way. When to send the investments? How about the Monday before the event? Because some might prefer to send a check and that's fine but make sure it's in the hands of the banker by that Monday. If it's going to happen, we have to make it happen.

What’s a check ?

Seriously , I’m quite happy to handle the cash and place the bets but it’s much easier if payments are done by PayPal, Zelle or Venmo. Let’s make it a minimum $25 a share. If you want to invest $50 you get two shares etc.

[Badactor]

Excellent.. thank you, Mr Hendry!
Whichever way we decide to play BC pk6,
I'm just happy to be part of the group.

Regarding Flightline...
seems a single or play against.
But that's just me. I'm in for $50.
Good morning, Bev... check your PayPal.

[lure]

I am in for 50. Can I use Venmo? Lure

[eye123]

I'll be a part. (amount to be determined) Just a few questions. Is this the two day (Nov 4,5th Friday,Saturday BC PK6) ? Do we have an idea of which races this encompasses ? $1 increment ? Mandatory payout?

[kinley2017]

Sept 15, 2022 13:12:50 GMT -5 1hooper said:

The 2020 Breeders Cup P6 at Keeneland started 17-1, 18-1 and 73-1.
Bring a big bankroll.

I had the 73-1and the 18-1 but not the 17-1 ended up with 4 out of 6 and spent 18 dollars

[bobtailnag]

I'll get in with at least $50.

[ziggy]

Interested.

[ziggy]

A suggestion, anyone putting in $50 if the base is $25 should also get to place a horse in the wager if they choose to. The last mandatory payout I made a suggestion in, the first leg was won by my choice, longest shot in the race. LOL I sucked after that but did give out a nice play. Went off at 27-1. I bet him when he was 80-1 which I couldn't believe. I had a nice write up on why you had to use him and hope you at least took a shot when his odds climbed that high ( best races all 4th from the 1 hole which is where he was. His other races all involved trouble).

[UpInClass]

DEL MAR 2021 $1 Pick 6 Jackpot (8-5-1/3/8/16-10-10-5)

(6 Correct) Paid $513,085.10

KEENELAND 2020 $1 Pick 6 (11-7-15-10-3-9)

(5 correct) 33,393.70 ~ Nobody had 6, is that right??

Reference Only... 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 1 looks like this $1024.
www.americasbestracing.net/gambling-calculator

[Deleted]

i'd be in for at least 25 but would have to pay by check; don't do venmo or paypal and never will