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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 8, 2022 19:17:33 GMT -5
A few thoughts: 1) Euros will have a decided effect on the outcome of the pk6. Seems hooper, ten furlongs and 5wide have a better grasp than most on the overseas contingent. Could see handing over those races to them for consensus and selections.(seems some outside euro always steps up at a price ) 2) Cherokeescot will place the bets(being banker of course, like you say)...do we have someone here who is good at constructing tickets.(giving weight to the more solid choices...and good at multiple ticket construction ? (pk5 pk6 daily players) 3) Set a date for funds into the pool.( say two, three days out ) that way we have an amount(and easier on the banker) in which choices and ticket construction could begin. (of course not finalized until Saturday) 4) In the past we've tried to get everybody's picks into the tickets. Thinking we limit the handicapping to just a few.(taking ideas...but not committing to them) Suggestion......tournament players Jack,tc,Elk seem most likely here. View Attachment I would recommend adding SpiderJohn to the “Euro “ team given his past success at Royal Ascot , Goodwood , York etc |
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Post by spiderjohn on Oct 10, 2022 11:14:04 GMT -5
Thanx 4 the kind words,Bev……I try to keep up on the top Euro racing, particularly in the UK.
I will get in this, though without knowing which races are involved, this is one tough ticket to put together. What is the projected investment amount?
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 10, 2022 20:35:35 GMT -5
We’re hoping for $1000+ , as Bon Jovi would say “Whoa, we’re halfway there “
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Post by tims70ar on Oct 11, 2022 15:15:27 GMT -5
We’re hoping for $1000+ , as Bon Jovi would say “Whoa, we’re halfway there “ And..............Living on a Prayer !!! |
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 12, 2022 18:51:45 GMT -5
$700 received as of October 12 Badactor $75 TurfEyeJoe $25 Cherokee Scot $100 5 Wide $50 TC $50 TimS 70 AR $50 Otis $50 Ziggy $50 Shoes $50 Bobtailnag $100 SpiderJohn $100 Updated |
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 14, 2022 9:16:45 GMT -5
$850 received as of October 14 Badactor $75 TurfEyeJoe $25 Cherokee Scot $100 5 Wide $50 TC $50 TimS 70 AR $50 Otis $50 Ziggy $50 Shoes $50 Bobtailnag $100 SpiderJohn $100 Updated Bert Convy $50 GeneRayburn $50 SB West $50 updated |
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tc
UpInClass Member
Posts: 2,212
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Post by tc on Oct 14, 2022 18:53:59 GMT -5
Bert Convy $50 GeneRayburn $50 SB West $50 updated I think you are missing arsignman's $25 contribution via Tom's Saratoga contest prizes...I recall seeing something about it in one of the threads. |
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 14, 2022 19:40:23 GMT -5
I’m not missing it if I haven’t received it 🤑
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Post by Badactor on Oct 14, 2022 23:00:04 GMT -5
One day during the covid lockdown.. do you remember those days when there was hardly any traffic and no one was going anywhere and everything was quiet.. it was on one of those days that up the street I heard the sound that only a horse player would recognize.. the sound of a gambler hollering at the television TVG in fact hollering like a crazy person.. this was the sound I heard on that quiet covid day.. a few doors up the street.. that's the day I met Hawaiian Dan. He's not a member of The Forum yet and not really a computer type guy.. he's still busy out in the real world.. anyway like I said, he's a horse degenerate.. just like us. He loves horse racing like a crazy person.. just like us.
Two shares for $50 to Hawaiian Dan.
One share for $25 to Ibetponies.
Thank you again to Mr. Hendry for managing the accounts.
I have a very good feeling about this effort!
Would love to hear everyone's philosophies on Pick 6 plays.. I feel strongly we have to have at least one single to live or die by.. two if we're Brave. I don't want to play to break even. My Philosophy is to swing for the fences in whichever manner we choose to attack the question.. the puzzle.. of the BC Pick 6. Talk to me 'shoes.. how would you go about it?
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 14, 2022 23:36:31 GMT -5
$925 received as of October 15 Badactor $75 TurfEyeJoe $25 Cherokee Scot $100 5 Wide $50 TC $50 TimS 70 AR $50 Otis $50 Ziggy $50 Shoes $50 Bobtailnag $100 SpiderJohn $100 Bert Convy $50 GeneRayburn $50 SB West $50 Hawaiian Dan $50 IBetPonies $25 Updated |
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Post by spiderjohn on Oct 15, 2022 19:11:03 GMT -5
I don’t think that the ticket will include any of the winners from champion’s da @ Ascot today or anything from kEeneland or Belmont this weekend.
Agree?
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 16, 2022 7:12:19 GMT -5
I’m not missing it if I haven’t received it 🤑 I just sent $25 for arsignman and $50 for tenfurlongs. TW |
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 16, 2022 7:17:44 GMT -5
Got it . We have now reached the $1000 mark
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 16, 2022 7:25:12 GMT -5
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,387
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Post by shoes on Oct 16, 2022 7:43:47 GMT -5
One day during the covid lockdown.. do you remember those days when there was hardly any traffic and no one was going anywhere and everything was quiet.. it was on one of those days that up the street I heard the sound that only a horse player would recognize.. the sound of a gambler hollering at the television TVG in fact hollering like a crazy person.. this was the sound I heard on that quiet covid day.. a few doors up the street.. that's the day I met Hawaiian Dan. He's not a member of The Forum yet and not really a computer type guy.. he's still busy out in the real world.. anyway like I said, he's a horse degenerate.. just like us. He loves horse racing like a crazy person.. just like us. Two shares for $50 to Hawaiian Dan. One share for $25 to Ibetponies. Thank you again to Mr. Hendry for managing the accounts. I have a very good feeling about this effort! Would love to hear everyone's philosophies on Pick 6 plays.. I feel strongly we have to have at least one single to live or die by.. two if we're Brave. I don't want to play to break even. My Philosophy is to swing for the fences in whichever manner we choose to attack the question.. the puzzle.. of the BC Pick 6. Talk to me 'shoes.. how would you go about it? Dell, your philosophy on ticket construction is very close to mine. Consensus in each race is not likely to win, and if it does, the pay-out will be disappointing. You need single(s) to allow you to spread in key races that offer multiple long shots in the same race. As I said in the earlier post, this could lead to a miss where many will say, why didn't we use that horse, he really figured? I don't want to be part of a "too many cooks spoil the stew" recipe though, and that is why I want to be a non-voting partner here. No second guessing from me with whatever the team decides. |
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 16, 2022 19:01:16 GMT -5
$1250 as of October 16
Badactor $75
TurfEyeJoe $25
Cherokee Scot $100
5 Wide $50
TC $50
TimS 70 AR $50
Otis $50
Ziggy $50
Shoes $50
Bobtailnag $100
SpiderJohn $100
Bert Convy $50
GeneRayburn $50
SB West $50
Hawaiian Dan $50
IBetPonies $25
Ten Furlongs $50
Arsignman $25
Elk $200
Contest Share Prizes $50 (courtesy of Elk)
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Post by UpInClass on Oct 17, 2022 23:03:18 GMT -5
It's only $25 for a share of the excitement and ROI from our UIC BC PK6 Project!
Get your share this week and play for an additional FREE $25 Share (courtesy elk) this weekend.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 18, 2022 10:22:37 GMT -5
BC P6 Payouts ($1), last ten years:
bold= betting choice rank, j=joint; (beaten favorite if <2-1)
[winners' odds]
2021- $513,085.10 (pool $3,163,839) DMR 11/6 (fast/firm)
3rd, 4th (bf 1-2), 1st, 9th (bf 8-5), 4th, j2nd (bf 9-5)
[9-2, 11-1, 2-1, 50-1, 8-1, 3-1]
2020- $33,393.70 {5 correct} (pool $3,285,407) KEE 11/7 (fast/firm)
9th, 7th (bf 6-5), 14th, 1st, 3rd, j3rd
[18-1, 18-1, 73-1, 1-1, 9-2, 4-1]
2019- $55,668.80 (pool $5,211,517) SA 11/2 (fast/firm)
5th (bf 4-5), 2nd (bf 3-2), 2nd, 3rd (bf 1-1), 1st, 3rd
[13-1, 9-5, 7-2, 9-1, 1-1, 9-2]
2018- $1,853.30 (pool $2,015,956) CD 11/3 (fast/good)
2nd, 2nd (bf 3-2), 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st
[3-1, 5-2, 6-1, 9-5, 4-5, 5-2]
2017- $194,211.80 (pool $2,994,088) DMR 11/4 (fast/firm)
3rd (bf 3-2), 3rd (bf 3-2), 1st, 6th (bf 3-5), 5th (bf 3-2), 2nd
[11-1, 5-1, 5-2, 11-1, 14-1, 5-2]
2016- $146,211.60 (pool $4,053,425) SA 11/5 (fast/firm)
1st, 2nd, 3rd (bf 9-5), 5th, 5th, 2nd (bf 4-5)
[4-1, 9-2, 4-1, 9-1, 12-1, 8-5]
2015- $47,212.20 (pool $3,063,810) KEE 10/31 (fast/good)
4th (bf 4-5), 1st, 3rd, j2nd, 4th (bf 4-5), 1st
[8-1, 8-5, 5-1, 5-1, 6-1, 3-5]
2014- $57,236.00 {5 correct} (pool $3,835,505) SA 11/1 (fast/firm)
4th, 6th (bf 9-5), 3rd (bf 8-5), 10th, 12th, 4th
[7-1, 14-1, 6-1, 19-1, 30-1, 6-1]
2013- $23,758.10 (pool $3,277,813) SA 11/2 (fast/firm)
1st, 5th, 6th (bf 3-2), 1st, 1st, 2nd (bf 8-5)
[5-2, 10-1, 12-1, 5-2, 4-5, 4-1]
2012- $209,622.70 (pool $3,139,314) SA 11/3 (fast/firm)
4th, 1st, 6th, 7th, 1st, 5th (bf 6-5)
[7-1, 6-5, 17-1, 14-1, 9-5, 9-1]
60 races. 32 races with favorites <2-1.
11 winners, 21 non-winners.
TW
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 3,050
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Post by eye123 on Oct 18, 2022 11:29:08 GMT -5
The collecting money part is going pretty well. Still waiting on the "handicapping team" "ticket maker(s) " . If I remember right, it was a mad scramble on these two fronts(in the last minutes) the last time(s) we attempted a pool wager. (This is probably the most important part of the whole group try)
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,960
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Post by docd on Oct 18, 2022 16:47:58 GMT -5
$1250 as of October 16 Badactor $75 TurfEyeJoe $25 Cherokee Scot $100 5 Wide $50 TC $50 TimS 70 AR $50 Otis $50 Ziggy $50 Shoes $50 Bobtailnag $100 SpiderJohn $100 Bert Convy $50 GeneRayburn $50 SB West $50 Hawaiian Dan $50 IBetPonies $25 Ten Furlongs $50 Arsignman $25 Elk $200 Contest Share Prizes $50 (courtesy of Elk)
$50 coming your way from Doc |
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 19, 2022 8:20:08 GMT -5
$1350 as of October 19th
Latest receipts
DocD $50
Maumeeriverangler $50
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 19, 2022 9:23:59 GMT -5
From a discussion about pick-6 wagers in general, and the BC pick-6 more specifically, on another forum (PA.) This will relate to ticket construction primarily.
1) "...In playing a Pick-6 your only initial concern is hitting it....not that you hate a couple favorites or like a couple horses in the sequence, as honestly strong opinions like that will be absolutely detrimental in constructing winning Pick-6 tickets. Basically you probably want to make a rough rundown of the races and determine how well you can narrow down the field and segregate your contendors. Contrary to something I read earlier, playing multiple tickets because you have tiered (A, B, C) your selections should increase one's chances of winning, for the money being played, because you are spreading your money on your picks based on preference. If you only play one ticket every member of each race is being used for the same amount which hardly seems prudent or cost effective.
Anyone can obviously get lucky on a random day where they happen to be right but if you really want to have a chance to be successful over time in the Pick-6 you have to learn how to spend your money wisely to at least optimize your chances of winning for the amount you have bet."
2) "...The whole problem with having a P6 winning (ticket) that is loaded with favorites is that when it happens it belies the fact that it's a rare occurrence and it rewards plays that will very seldom be rewarded over the long run. So looking at the results from the example being used and saying "Wow that's nice that all of those people got a nice return for their small investment" is little more than a charitible comment. The situation falls more squarely into the category of bad plays that win."
3) {"...Personally, I think the idea is to use as many overlays as possible and hook them together as often as possible within the limits of your bankroll. That virtually guarantees that every ticket you play is an overlay. You can also use other high probability underlays and neutral horses on your tickets to improve the probability of cashing the bet, but they should be hooked up with a few overlays to ensure the ticket is at least a marginal overlay.}
'I have a lot of trouble with the whole "overlay" thing as it is usually a nebulous concept at best ( and I am even including myself when I think or say it ) as the trueness of the odds board is pretty strong.
However, more towards the point, I think playing the Pick-6 is about staying alive, or escaping, and not as much about strong opinions. You want to survive as many races as possible to give yourself a chance to make the score when your good opinion happens to roll home.'
4) "...Even if one is able to construct an accurate "fair odds" line, how can one know ahead of time which horses will be overlays and/or underlays in each of the final five legs. Further, even if one's strong opinion is accurate in any single race, that horse may encounter trouble as can any of the horses used in any legs.
So identifying contenders would appear to be less important than isolating losers -- especially logical pool choices -- to determine which cards present greater opportunity for producing payoffs worthy of partnering in order to go sufficiently deep in all legs."
5)
Things to consider going forward.
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Oct 19, 2022 11:17:06 GMT -5
great timing, 10f---I was ready to post something similar, and agree with most above.
your premise 1) pretty much nails it.
In the past, I have mostly used the 1 ticket approach since I usually do this solo. Recently I have only tried the $.20 payout day pools, and have scored there. Multiple tix haven'tworked as well for me, as I seem to have all the winners between the tix, yet am 1 or 2 short on every ticket. I am fine with whatever is decided here.
I do somewhat disagree with eye's premise above that we turn this over to "contest players"(though I greatly respect their abilities), since imo the "contest" approach and the "p6" approach are somewhat opposite in my mind. While we obviously need the live shots, we also must have EVERY winner to get this done. Runners such as NEST could be viewed as a strong single since she might possibly be in a smaller field, and either draw outside or easily get to the outside where her run is very effective. FLIGHTLINE is another strong favorite in the Classic(I assume), though it is his first trip to KY and going the distance vs an international group. I can't see anyone out-finishing the filly, and if the colt holds his form, he will be tough. At KEE wtw jobs should always be considered. IF both of these runners are singled(as many will do), it reduces the wager to a broad ticket p4, where possibly another leg or more can be somewhat reduced.
Fortunately the main 2yo races will be Friday.
As for Euros---Appleby and O'Brien are the main players, and beware of 2nd and 3rd stringers from the O'Brien barn. We will see who else travels.....Moore, Tudhope, Marquand(not sure if Haggas is sending anything) and Frankie will be the riders to watch imo.
I am not concerned with the "overlay underlay" thing since we need every winner regardless.
The team handicapping and constructing will be interesting. We have a lot of sharp players here---however p6 is another animal, especially @ $1 or $2 per.....
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Post by Badactor on Oct 19, 2022 12:10:18 GMT -5
JolyB and propro pick winners.
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Post by Badactor on Oct 19, 2022 12:27:08 GMT -5
AND...
and stay with me now...
and I... badactor... I am...
I am the "CHOTU" of longshots.
This is a great thread. 🐴❤️
I am so glad we're doing this! 😁
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 19, 2022 13:12:46 GMT -5
The actual make-up of the six-race sequence will be important as well. Clearly, the last two legs will be the Turf and the Classic. The other four will probably be some order of: F&M Turf, Sprint, Mile, and Distaff. The Turf Sprint always goes early, the F&M Sprint will have a short field, and the Dirt Mile may not have more than ten either.
The big-player tickets will have all the bases covered, so we won't outfox them just by going 10-deep in one race. Our value might come from covering a few more in races where most people will stop short in order to spread wider, IMO.
F&M Turf- Several from GB and several from Chad Brown; likely have to go deep here. (6)
Sprint- Depending on which horses opt for the Dirt Mile, might be a short leg. (3)
Mile- Barring any additional foreign entrants, could go shorter here. (4)
Distaff- Nest vs. Malathaat. Do most people just go two deep? Single one? Deeper for value? (2)
Turf- Top contenders at least four deep. (5)
Classic- Flightline is 3-5. (?)
6x3x4x2x5x1 = $720 (just to put some numbers to the thing.)
Flightline is a buzzkill on this wager. If there were a pick-5 ending with the Turf, I'd say play that instead, but there isn't as far as I know. So do you just treat the pick-6 as a pick-5?
This year feels like KEE 2015, to be honest:
R6- odds-on fave stumbled badly out of gate, Stephanie's Kitten wins at 8-1.
R7- Runhappy at 8-5.
R8- Tepin logical at 5-1.
R9- Nyquist logical at 5-1.
R10- logical Found at 6-1 beats odds-on Golden Horn.
R11- American Pharoah at 7-10.
Pick-6 paid $47K+.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 19, 2022 13:39:41 GMT -5
I wonder if they would move the Distaff outside the pick-6 due to the anticipated short field (seven ?) If they brought in the more competitive Dirt Mile or Turf Sprint (unlikely), that would be a whole 'nother kettle of fish.
TW
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,652
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Post by 5wide on Oct 19, 2022 13:48:03 GMT -5
Saturday’s Wagering Notes and Guaranteed Pools The 2022 wagering menu will include a new All-Turf Pick 4 on Saturday for races 5, 7, 9 and 11. The four races, in order, are the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Race 5), Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Race 7), FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile (Race 9), and the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Race 11). Saturday’s Ultra Pick 6, late Pick 5 and Super High 5 are mandatory payouts. Also, the Breeders’ Cup will offer a third, middle Pick 5 on Saturday, starting with Race 3. The early Pick 5 will start with Race 1 and the late Pick 5 with Race 8. Last year’s late Pick 5 on Saturday generated a $5.1 million pool while the late Pick 4 offered a $4.3 million pool. www.thelines.com/breeders-cup/#:~:text=The%202022%20wagering%20menu%20will,Cup%20Turf%20(Race%2011). |
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Post by bobtailnag on Oct 19, 2022 14:12:56 GMT -5
If you've ever, or still do, pick 6 numbers in a state lottery to win a hunk of change, this is a whole lot easier than the lotters - and more fun too, and you get to eliminate a lot of "numbers" using a little common sense.
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 19, 2022 15:12:57 GMT -5
Current pot $1,400
Latest receipt
Hooper $50
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