Why Wasn't the Belmont Stakes Run at 1 3/8 Miles?

[shoes]

I try to do my own work, so I'll easily know who to "blame." (the man in the mirror). But I do apply the thoughts of the analysts I like including here and take a second look at interesting thoughts. This has paid off in a huge way twice for me. When I hit the Pick 6 ending in Orb's Derby on a $2 3x1x1x1x1x2 ($12) ticket, the key horse in the sequence was a 10 or 12-1 shot in the first leg who was recommended by UpinClass poster "Boozer Mike." I would not have had the horse without the second look. The other time was pick 4 featuring a 20-1 shot in the first leg on a turf race. In that case, I did like the horse but had dropped him to reduce ticket cost from 18 to 12 until former race announcer Vic Stauffer who was doing occasional analysis at TVG (this was before he went to Oaklawn) recommended him. I put him back on the ticket, and he wins in a tight photo.

Does anyone remember Boozer Mike or have any idea what happened to him?

[tenfurlongs]

Jun 12, 2024 13:20:03 GMT -5 shoes said:

Does anyone remember Boozer Mike or have any idea what happened to him?

Sure do remember him. He used to do the daily recap of the Saratoga contest for a few years, but bailed out and we were blessed by getting his replacement, CherokeeScot. 

Mike was a Jersey-guy, I was friends with him on social media for a while but I haven't been in touch with him for some time. He was/is a fine handicapper. Maybe Propro knows what became of him.




TW

[thomasroulston]

I have one word to say to all this: Mecke.

Sure, Mecke's Dosage Index was 5.22 - but his Dosage Profile was 11-10-5-2-0, thus he was not void on the stamina wing.

Think of it as the equine version of the "One Drop Theory" (Mecke won the Grade 1 Arlington Million and the Grade 3 Mac Diarmida at Gulfstrream, both at a mile and a quarter).

[vagrant]

To which I'd say American Pharoah. DI: 4.33. DP: 2-3-3-0-0.

[mysaladdays]

And to which I say (again) that Dornoch had the highest conduit mare speed and stamina.

But it appears that everyone only wants to apply dosage theories to sire side, only, and then only using the actual INDEX as well (1/4 of the story) ....... despite all the DNA that comes from the mare side  inheritances.

I really don't understand why you guys are taking ONE number, and only on the sire side as well, and telling me you are using a theory "correctly. "   Becuase, well.......you're not. The way you guys are applying sire side dosage AND only looking at the index (DI) itself, is also kinda useless.   

The entire sire side profile (that includes where each BICSP number falls, as well as the CD) also has to be compared and worked with from the entire  conduit mare side profile.  You can't just pick out the INDEX alone and call it a day or say the theories don't work.  (and by the way, I did not give their entire profiles, because the 5 numbers that make up their profile, their CDs, and other stuff, is also important, but I was trying to SIMPLIFY the view to show. "

(And actually having tracked it for 20 years, it's actually not good to have points in the stamina place for The Belmont on the sire side....differnet races require different things to look for.....tonalist had 1 point in that spot but many others, including Arcangelo, didn't.  So you can't go by one spot in a profile anyway......you have to learn to read both sides and make sense of both sides, sire AND mare. ) . 

IF a horse has a lot of sire side speed, you have to find the stamina somewhere.  That is where you start looking at the conduit mare profile.  If a horse is stamina heavy, they ususually don't win the KY Derby, which is a race that does requre some tactical speed, so you have to look at the other side of the sire/dam ......and probably also look at the BMS of the sire, dam, and I also look at the grandsires. 

THat's how I got the trifecta, for instance, in the belmont won by drosselmeyer.  It was clear as day. Both Fly Down and First Dude were going to run well.  API grandsires both of them, too. 

I left the conduit mare rundown here, so you can see it:
upinclass.proboards.com/thread/9880/congrats-dornoch-good-magic-puca

as well as the readings for all the other horses. For sure, I would not be using Mindframe had the race been 12F even if you gave me the $ to bet with.

This was when Bill Lathrop was on forums, we all had Animal Kingdom to win because of his guidance.  He was the author of Modern Conduit Mares.  Book is out of print now.  Website is gone....he aged out.   Interesting topic, for sure.   I might add that George Smiths' assigning GSVs is also part of the story  If you have a sub to pedigree query you most likely can find those too. 
www.pedigreequery.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=30582

Bill was very good at finding the KY Derby and Belmont winners for sure.  On page 3 he talks about his interactions with Dr. Roman who was actually just continuing the work done by Varola. 

The point when a lot of this stopped working is when the ex quarterhorse trainers started taking over, and their horses didn't run to their numbers....at least what I have noticed   But all is just "another tool" to add to one's handicapping.   But please don't take a theory, use it incorrectly, then say  "it never worked!"

[vagrant]

For heavens sake, I didn’t invent dosage and I didn’t cause it to become a laughingstock. All I know is Tom Ainsley quoted in his classic tome a preeminent equine geneticist named Dewey, from the University of Kentucky, who basically said it’s balderdash to look back beyond the grandparents. But certain folks try to read tea leaves going back to the Barb. Nutty.

[propro]

The quarter pole at Saratoga is well back on the turn and there's no chute. Starting gate would have to be on the turn and would be a huge disadvantage to the outer runners.


The gate in the 3/30 race at Aqueduct wasn't squared to the stretch like it would be from a chute. It was angled with a few big issues. The outside runners run farther than the inside runners. The two inside runners had to hustle to keep from slamming into the inner rail before the stretch. The start had a lot of contact as the outer runners angled in early. Only 9 could have run in that race. Maybe they'll limit the Brooklyn to 8 runners and rent the old Northampton Fair starting gate for a race to try to square it up more.

[mysaladdays]

Jun 12, 2024 13:20:03 GMT -5 shoes said:

 I do apply the thoughts of the analysts I like including here and take a second look at interesting thoughts. This has paid off in a huge way twice for me. When I hit the Pick 6 ending in Orb's Derby on a $2 3x1x1x1x1x2 ($12) ticket, the key horse in the sequence was a 10 or 12-1 shot in the first leg who was recommended by UpinClass poster 

$16k for a $12 investment, bet that felt great !   It is always wise to use whatever tools and insights, including insights from others, so you can evaluate your own thinking.  Orb was one kerry thomas gave.  I wasnt crazy about him but his writeup made sense to me.   I  would have had Animal Kingdom anyway 2 yrs before on my own,  but kerry also gave I'll Have Another, who I would not have picked ( except my capping partner insisted we play him as that was his pick a month before the race.) 

I have found acquaintances on forums like this one to be well informed as well.  Wish i had listened to badactor for derby winner for instance.