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Post by thomasroulston on Jun 10, 2024 11:40:15 GMT -5
The track layouts at Saratoga and Aqueduct are as near as makes no difference to being identical: The length of the stretch at Saratoga is 1,144 feet, from the finish line to the first turn it is 341 feet - while at Aqueduct, the stretch is 1,155.5 feet long and the distance from the finish line to the first turn is 330 feet.
Furthermore, a 1 3/8-mile dirt race was run at Aqueduct on March 30 - and the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes (formerly the Brooklyn Handicap) will be run at that distance on July 5.
And in 1 3/8-mile dirt races at Aqueduct, there is a run-up of 40 feet before the timer is turned on.
If you "do the math," this means that it is possible to run 1 3/8-mile dirt races at Saratoga with a run-up of 28 feet (by comparison, there is no run-up at all in either 6-furlong dirt races at Pimlico or one-mile dirt races at Gulfstream).
Had this year's race been run at 1 3/8 miles, Dornoch, with his miler's pedigree - no Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in his Dosage Profile - might not have been able to get the extra furlong.
Hopefully NYRA will correct this oversight in time for next year's Belmont.
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 10, 2024 11:46:30 GMT -5
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 10, 2024 11:55:35 GMT -5
Had this year's race been run at 1 3/8 miles, Dornoch, with his miler's pedigree - no Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in his Dosage Profile - might not have been able to get the extra furlong. Unfortunately, dr. Roman only looked at the sire side. Bill Lathrop published Modern Conduit Mares...doing same but for female side of pedigree. Surely you do not think a horse is only genes or even mitochondrial dna from sire only?? DORNOCH had the highest conduit mare stamina profile of any horse in the field. Take a look at Puca, and also the bms of sire and bms of dam, and dont just evaluate one side of a pedigree. While atvit take a look at Summer Squall and trace that back. Most i know who use pedigree know stamina comes from that side, probably about 70% is the theory. I have some of that stuff posted in the SL new bit topic for anyone interested. If you have a sub to ped query i believe thet use tesio power type analysis, but lathrop got a lot of his theory from both roman and tesio |
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Post by Badactor on Jun 10, 2024 12:09:44 GMT -5
Sometimes we get the answers and sometimes we don't. The way it turned out, had the Belmont been run @ Belmont, the extra distance would likely have allowed my Mystik Dan to back up all the way to last place behind TWS & Resilience.
1. Dornoch
2. Mindframe
3. Sierra Leone
4. Honor Marie
5. Antiquarian
6. Protective
7. Seize the Grey
8. Mystik Dan
9. The Wine Steward
10. Resilience
I never like seeing a post go unanswered... so I am sorry about that, mysaladdays. Welcome to the forum, thomasroulston.  I hope you stay and enjoy the contests & conversation! |
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1hooper
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Posts: 7,440
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Post by 1hooper on Jun 10, 2024 12:29:25 GMT -5
If you watch that 3/30 race they could not use the 3 inside gate positions and they used a false inside rail. Not as bad as Wilson Mile chute turn but the best option I believe for Saratoga would be 1 5/8, start before the far turn.
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 10, 2024 12:30:57 GMT -5
Sometimes we get the answers and sometimes we don't. The way it turned out, had the Belmont been run @ Belmont, the extra distance would likely have allowed my Mystik Dan to back up all the way to last place behind TWS & Resilience.
1. Dornoch
2. Mindframe
3. Sierra Leone
4. Honor Marie
5. Antiquarian
6. Protective
7. Seize the Grey
8. Mystik Dan
9. The Wine Steward
10. Resilience
I never like seeing a post go unanswered... so I am sorry about that, mysaladdays. Welcome to the forum, thomasroulston. I hope you stay and enjoy the contests & conversation! Not a big deal, i figure if something gets no replies then maybe not considered worthy of discussion, sort of like parimutuel pools, let the crowd decide.  I really was not offended at all. Was just pointing out that I had been "wondering" the same thing as thomasroulston. I guess i am still wondering why though. Only thing i could think of is that SAR track isnt as wide as AQ, but with only 10 horses entered seems like it would not have been a problem with safety....maybe a bigger field was predicted? |
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Post by vagrant on Jun 10, 2024 13:02:14 GMT -5
Dosage? Really? That shizzle was discredited years ago.
I don't know why they didn't run it at 12 f. Aqueduct did 12 f. when it hosted the Belmont for a few years in the '60s. A mile and a half is so long they could start the horses at Siro's and they'd sort themselves out by the first turn.
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Post by tenofswords on Jun 10, 2024 14:16:25 GMT -5
They started the race on the turn from 1963 through 1967. That was clearly a bad idea.
I am curious, however, why 1 3/8 miles on dirt has never been run at Saratoga - but even 1 5/16 miles would have been better than 1 1/4 miles (on April 10, 1999, at Aqueduct, Gold Star Deputy ran 1 5/16 miles in 2:07 1/5, which is the American record for that distance on dirt. Dornoch probably would have fallen just short of that had Saturday's race been at 1 5/16 miles - but next year's winner might break that record if he gets the chance).
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1hooper
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Posts: 7,440
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Post by 1hooper on Jun 10, 2024 14:39:22 GMT -5
This is what 12F at Aqueduct looks like.
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 7,440
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Post by 1hooper on Jun 10, 2024 15:00:14 GMT -5
"Dosage? Really? That shizzle was discredited years ago".
You sent me to the basement to get some things that Steve personally sent me when he relocated to Costa Rica from Texas.
"Dosage figures describe a pedigree in terms of aptitudinal type".
What you do with that info is up to you.
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Post by vagrant on Jun 10, 2024 15:03:07 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing. I didn't see anything wrong with that set-up. It's not perfect but it gets the job done.
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Post by tenofswords on Jun 10, 2024 15:23:15 GMT -5
Sometimes we get the answers and sometimes we don't. The way it turned out, had the Belmont been run @ Belmont, the extra distance would likely have allowed my Mystik Dan to back up all the way to last place behind TWS & Resilience.
1. Dornoch
2. Mindframe
3. Sierra Leone
4. Honor Marie
5. Antiquarian
6. Protective
7. Seize the Grey
8. Mystik Dan
9. The Wine Steward
10. Resilience
I never like seeing a post go unanswered... so I am sorry about that, mysaladdays. Welcome to the forum, thomasroulston. I hope you stay and enjoy the contests & conversation! Not a big deal, i figure if something gets no replies then maybe not considered worthy of discussion, sort of like parimutuel pools, let the crowd decide. I really was not offended at all. Was just pointing out that I had been "wondering" the same thing as thomasroulston. I guess i am still wondering why though. Only thing i could think of is that SAR track isnt as wide as AQ, but with only 10 horses entered seems like it would not have been a problem with safety....maybe a bigger field was predicted? |
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Post by tenofswords on Jun 10, 2024 15:24:00 GMT -5
Not a big deal, i figure if something gets no replies then maybe not considered worthy of discussion, sort of like parimutuel pools, let the crowd decide. I really was not offended at all. Was just pointing out that I had been "wondering" the same thing as thomasroulston. I guess i am still wondering why though. Only thing i could think of is that SAR track isnt as wide as AQ, but with only 10 horses entered seems like it would not have been a problem with safety....maybe a bigger field was predicted? |
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Post by vagrant on Jun 10, 2024 15:25:10 GMT -5
What i do with that info is ignore it. It doesn't work anymore. E.g.:
ARCANGELO (USA) gr/r. H, 2020 {8-f} DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60 CD = 0.92
High DI, ton of speed points ... he's supposed to be a sprinter, right?
I don't see its utility. 75% of the Derby entrants had DIs between 2.00 and 3.80. Six were exactly 3.00. How does that help a player winnow the field -- especially in light of all the high DI winners since 1998?
Mystik Dan 3.00
Sierra Leone 2.00
Forever Young 3.00
Catching Freedom 5.67
T O Password 1.00
Resilience 3.50
Stronghold 3.00
Honor Marie 3.24
Endlessly 2.60
Dornoch 2.50
Track Phantom 2.20
West Saratoga 3.00
Domestic Product 3.00
Epic Ride 1.40
Fierceness 5.00
Society Man 3.80
Just Steel 4.00
Grand Mo The First 1.22
Catalytic 3.00
Just a Touch 3.57
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Post by tenofswords on Jun 10, 2024 15:27:37 GMT -5
It turns out that the widths of the stretches at AQU and SAR are identical: 100 feet.
AQU's backstretch, however, is wider (110 feet).
I'm so happy I kept pre-1982 copies of the track layouts in the American Racing Manual!
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 10, 2024 16:53:02 GMT -5
What i do with that info is ignore it. It doesn't work anymore. E.g.: ARCANGELO (USA) gr/r. H, 2020 {8-f} DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60 CD = 0.92 High DI, ton of speed points ... he's supposed to be a sprinter, right? I don't see its utility. 75% of the Derby entrants had DIs between 2.00 and 3.80. Six were exactly 3.00. How does that help a player winnow the field -- especially in light of all the high DI winners since 1998? Mystik Dan 3.00 Sierra Leone 2.00 Forever Young 3.00 Catching Freedom 5.67 T O Password 1.00 Resilience 3.50 Stronghold 3.00 Honor Marie 3.24 Endlessly 2.60 Dornoch 2.50 Track Phantom 2.20 West Saratoga 3.00 Domestic Product 3.00 Epic Ride 1.40 Fierceness 5.00 Society Man 3.80 Just Steel 4.00 Grand Mo The First 1.22 Catalytic 3.00 Just a Touch 3.57 I rarely would even think of using the sire side dosage INDEX , esp by itself, so we are in agreement. I dont even khow anyone who would, (or ever did?), at least not in the pedigree capper community. Seems to be a lot of misunderstanding about this though. Just like BSFs dont tell you much about a horse's stamina, but plenty of people use speed figures incorrectly, too. Basically, anyone who does not read charts and watch replays of races, does not do a lot of their own due dilligence, not also learn the jockey and trainer colonies, track bias, as well as look at pedigrees.... and lets any "formula or theory" pick their horses, then horse racing is going to be a bad financial experience for them. Some people dont wish to invest the time or they dont enjoy doing the homework. They are happy to buy pick tips at the track. I will have to ask my friends how beyer, thorograph, the sheets, other big name talking heads, etc. etc did on this Belmont Stakes and the KY DERBY as well. I dont know because i dont tune in to any of that. Mostly because i dont want to be influenced by other thoughts too much. I DO however, have 2 forums i like because i trust certain participants who over the years seem to have good instincts...and because they are interested in international racing as well. This is one of them.  |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 10, 2024 17:17:40 GMT -5
Roman's performance figures, however, were golden. Won many ky derby exotics using those. And family 5 and 8 in the Belmont DOES have a particularly high hit rate...but using that alone would be madness.
Many also use all those "final 3/8, 1/4 stats". I think there was a bloodhorse article on that this year. I tracked those stats on an excel chart for 8 years...by itself it wasn't particulaly potent. No angle by itself comprises due dilligence.
That is why young people do sports betting...its easier
Either you enjoy a complex puzzle and finding the answers in data, or you dont. I think horse players are UNIQUE.....they enjoy the work.
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Post by thomasroulston on Jun 11, 2024 6:13:14 GMT -5
What i do with that info is ignore it. It doesn't work anymore. E.g.: ARCANGELO (USA) gr/r. H, 2020 {8-f} DP = 3-16-5-0-0 (24) DI = 8.60 CD = 0.92 High DI, ton of speed points ... he's supposed to be a sprinter, right? I don't see its utility. 75% of the Derby entrants had DIs between 2.00 and 3.80. Six were exactly 3.00. How does that help a player winnow the field -- especially in light of all the high DI winners since 1998? Mystik Dan 3.00 Sierra Leone 2.00 Forever Young 3.00 Catching Freedom 5.67 T O Password 1.00 Resilience 3.50 Stronghold 3.00 Honor Marie 3.24 Endlessly 2.60 Dornoch 2.50 Track Phantom 2.20 West Saratoga 3.00 Domestic Product 3.00 Epic Ride 1.40 Fierceness 5.00 Society Man 3.80 Just Steel 4.00 Grand Mo The First 1.22 Catalytic 3.00 Just a Touch 3.57 I rarely would even think of using the sire side dosage INDEX , esp by itself, so we are in agreement. I dont even khow anyone who would, (or ever did?), at least not in the pedigree capper community. Seems to be a lot of misunderstanding about this though. Just like BSFs dont tell you much about a horse's stamina, but plenty of people use speed figures incorrectly, too. Basically, anyone who does not read charts and watch replays of races, does not do a lot of their own due dilligence, not also learn the jockey and trainer colonies, track bias, as well as look at pedigrees.... and lets any "formula or theory" pick their horses, then horse racing is going to be a bad financial experience for them. Some people dont wish to invest the time or they dont enjoy doing the homework. They are happy to buy pick tips at the track. I will have to ask my friends how beyer, thorograph, the sheets, other big name talking heads, etc. etc did on this Belmont Stakes and the KY DERBY as well. I dont know because i dont tune in to any of that. Mostly because i dont want to be influenced by other thoughts too much. I DO however, have 2 forums i like because i trust certain participants who over the years seem to have good instincts...and because they are interested in international racing as well. This is one of them. |
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Post by vagrant on Jun 11, 2024 9:51:20 GMT -5
>>>>>I will have to ask my friends how beyer, thorograph, the sheets, other big name talking heads, etc. etc did on this Belmont Stakes
Ellis Starr had Dornoch. Nobody else I read or heard even sniffed it. They mostly glommed onto Sierra Leone. The NY wiseguys were on Resilience.
Kaitlin Free is the only pundit who had Mystik Dan in the Derby. Heck, she gave out the cold tri -- and made a strong argument for all her picks. She's good.
Other than maybe the WNBA, no other sport offer gives women such a huge chance to shine in writing and broadcasting. I love it. Can't think of a bad one. (Wish I could say the same about the guys.) Imo, Maggie Wolfendale is the best sideline reporter in any sport. It's not even close. It might be unfair to compare Maggie to sideline reporters who are restricted to 45-second blurbs, but if you gave them all the same amount of rope, Maggie would use her rope the best.
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 11, 2024 10:25:05 GMT -5
Thanks for filling in the blanks for me, Vagrant. And for yor thoughts about Maggie and Kaitlin.
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,379
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Post by shoes on Jun 11, 2024 14:02:24 GMT -5
I enjoy listening to Christina (Olivares) Blacker, daughter of jockey Frank Olivares and wife of trainer Dan Blacker. She does her homework and gives reasoned opinions.
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Post by vagrant on Jun 11, 2024 14:27:40 GMT -5
Yep. She's very good. I also I like Sara Elbadwi and Caton Bredar. Candace Hare was good before she went to mainstream news TV. Donna Brothers is too sanitized, sterilized and corporatized for my tastes.
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,647
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Post by 5wide on Jun 11, 2024 14:41:15 GMT -5
I enjoy listening to Christina (Olivares) Blacker, daughter of jockey Frank Olivares and wife of trainer Dan Blacker. She does her homework and gives reasoned opinions. Ditto, she's always dropping pertinent bits of info that I otherwise had no way of knowing. |
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 11, 2024 15:01:15 GMT -5
If I have the sound on(usually don’t—mostly noise imo), I listen more to the women—particularly those riding on the track. + most of them are family-connected with trainer experience.
The males are mostly weak—just stabbing cappers who steal whatever info they can, and pass it on as their own work. Granted some are paid to talk and keep the show going and players playing.
I value the opinions here more…..
jmo
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Post by cherokeescot on Jun 11, 2024 15:34:07 GMT -5
The male content took a huge drop in quality when HRTV disappeared into TVG . Really enjoyed listening to Jeff Siegel and Frank Lyons
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Post by vagrant on Jun 11, 2024 21:03:59 GMT -5
Frank Lyons was awesome. Whatever happened to him.
Jeff Siegel is excellent too. Just doesnt have Lyons' personality and accent. No BC Trophy on his mantle either.
Funny though. The Lyons analysis I'll never forget was stupendously, stridently wrong. He said Sakhee had the turfiest turf gait in the history of turf, thus had no chance in the Classic.
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Post by vagrant on Jun 11, 2024 21:11:15 GMT -5
[quote author=" spiderjohn " source="/post/90669/thread" timestamp="1718136075" The males are mostly weak—just stabbing cappers who steal whatever info they can, and pass it on as their own work. So true. I'll catch hell for his but I think Serling is a pretty good picker, which is rare for the XY crowd. Randy Moss isn't always right but he always backs his pick with a cogent argument. Matt Bernier isn't bad. It's not an easy job. |
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 12, 2024 7:03:22 GMT -5
Serling drives me up the wall…. He hates every favorite, then picks some dud who does little…..Shrupp and Carothers are the most irritating(though Matt is occasionally right). Deluca needs to go also.
Moss knows handicapping and Bray can make sense. I used to like Kinchen until he fell into the mess with his partners. Why Maragh now? I liked Bailey Steven’s and Mig… they look at it as riders.
I can’t handle tvg/fanduel and watch the NYRA or cd feeds and honestly play my iPod as background.
Looking forward to skipping it all for a few weeks, though we may have a runner end of month @ CD……
To each their own.,.. do it your way!
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Post by vagrant on Jun 12, 2024 10:33:10 GMT -5
I like Serling's schtick but I can see your point. Carothers is indeed irritating but also pretty good at pulling the occasional rabbit out of his hat. Bray is OK. Maragh was excellent last weekend, imo, but Mig didn't deserve a demotion. Bailey is sort of a master of the obvious. Never liked Stevens. It was apparent too many times that he hadn't done his homework.
Kinchen is a good picker with a good personality. I dig him. What's the "mess with his partners"?
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 12, 2024 10:58:09 GMT -5
Clarification:
I feel like Kinchen has backslid down to the level of his partners and seems to be throwing something out there halfway a lot of the time….
Granted it is tough to have to pick something and sell it every race
A musician friend told me that he realized that often he is really a drink/beer salesman…….same with these heads trying to get people to wager on their platform
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