Congrats to DORNOCH son of Good Magic and Puca

[mysaladdays]

He gave 200%  and not like he didn't have pressure.   Got pressure from StG and then Mindframe, and still managed the win. 

For future reference,  Lowes Family 5 and Family 8 are good for this race, historically.  Dornoch had 14 family 5 and 8 in 5 generations position.  The Conduit belmont winner is Remembrance 5g . Big Brown also family 5g and almost won the Triple Crown. 

(Seize the Grey is an 8h, Family 8 also very powerful for the Belmont). 

Also, Mr Prospector/RAN sireline with Northern Dancer win a lot of these.  I will go back in history to show that in another post. 

Dornoch also had the highest conduit mare stamina of the whole field. 
2021 {5-g} DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 - GSV = 50.85

Conduit Mare Profile 7-8-2-9-8  Speed = 15  Stamina 17 Index 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19

I know people don't believe in this stuff but there is a lot of relevance, only other person I know who like Dornoch is a pedigree / bloodstock friend.  

3 winners Family 5G:  Big Brown was an "almost":
Dornoch 5g 
2005-Afleet Alex-5g-Remembrance

1975-Avatar-5g-Remembrance

1931-Twendy Grand-5g-Remembrance

[mysaladdays]

Here were the conduit mare profiles for all the horses in here. You have probably seen these floating around before.
Dornoch's mare side stamina leaped out. That is why I was not convinced that he would run out of steam.

While people who aren't into the pedigree stuff are only looking at sires, if you go thru history, a horse's stamina influence is in the broodmare sire of the sire, however, the broodmare sire of the DAM is about 70% of the stamina for a horse. (thank you to Bill Lathrop and Tesio!) The theory is that the Dam is the exclusive contributor of mitochondrial DNA.

It often doesn't show up in shorter races but as the distances get longer, it is useful.


Antiquarian
Conduit Mare Profile 6-5-5-6-7 Speed 11 Stamina 13 Index 0.88 Triads = 16-16-18
----
Dornoch 21 phalaris
Conduit Mare Profile 7-8-2-9-8Speed = 15 Stamina 17 Index 0.89 Triads = 17-19-19
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Honor Marie
Conduit Mare Profile 4-3-6-4-9 Speed 7 Stamina 13 Index 0.61 Triads = 13-13-19
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mystik Dan
Conduit Mare Profile 4-5-5-12-0 Speed 9 Stamina 12 Index 1.06 Triads = 14-22-17
----------------------------------------------------
Seize The Grey
Conduit Mare Profile 4-6-4-9-6 Speed 10 Stamina 15 Index = 0.72 Triads = 14-19-19
----------------------------------------------------------------
Sierra Leone
Conduit Mare Profile 5-3-5-6-8 Speed 8 Stamina 14 Index 0.67 Triads = 13-14-19
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Wine Steward
Conduit Mare Profile 7-3-3-5-10 Speed 10 Stamina 15 Index 0.71 Triads = 13-11-18
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mindframe
Conduit Mare Profile 6-6-5-8-3 Speed 12 Stamina 11 Index 1.21 Triads = 17-19-16
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Protective
Conduit Mare Profile 9-6-1-6-6 Speed 15 Stamina 12 Index 1.32 Triads 16-13-13

[1hooper]

www.equineline.com/tdn/pedigree.cfm?tk=SAR&cy=USA&rd=06/08/2024&rn=12&de=D&ref=10978759&pid=4127

[mysaladdays]

For anyone interested in the conduit mare theories (otherwise, just ignore!): It is another TOOL to use along with track performance, figures, etc. 

I could show it better by showing history of all the KY Derbies. You would need a subscription to pedigree query of course. 
I went thru 20+ years of profiles and they always have a high last number in the triads as well.  Often true of the place horse too).   Very few horses will win classic distance races with low numbers in that spot.  Stronghold had 14, Just a Touch only had 16 and Deterministic had 16.   That is why they were not or would not be on my KY Derby ticket and esp. never in the win spot. (although Just a Touch failed 5 other pedigree angles I use so being fair, he was not graded on just this).  Stronghold's track performance was such that I "almost" included him on my ticket, but didn't, but still would have not put him in the win spot. )

Once in a while a horse like Always Dreaming breaks thru, but it is actually rare, as you will see below. 

THere is a lot more to it, like the whole profile, the CD, etc.  which I didn't include in order to make it simpler to understand.  But hopefully you will see "the pattern" here.  It's not really arguable.  The speed part is not that important on the mare conduit, as it is nothing like a speed figure for an race that people are used to looking at.  (For the Belmont I like a low speed number there).  These are for the KY Derby.  (Rarely if ever will you find a winner with a low last triad unless there is something else REMARKABLE in their whole profile which I have not shown here for simplicity sake). 

When people say "this doesn't work" I can show them this. 


Horse - - Speed - Stamina - Triads

Mage 15 -17  17-19-19  (Two Phil's  7-13 15-20-21)
Rich Strike  8-16  14-16-22
Mandaloun  11-12  17-25-18 
Authentic  11-10  20-23-19 
Country House 10-19  13-18-21  (tons of stamina in that one)
Justify 13-15  17-15-19  (Good Magic 11-18   13-19-20)
Always Dreaming 11-13   14-18-16
Nyquist  8-13   15-15-20  (Exaggerator  9-17  13-15-19)
American Pharoah 11-13   15-17-17  (Firing Line  8-15  13-21-20) 
California Chrome  14-16  18-11-19 
Orb 9-15   13-9-17 
I'll Have Another 11-18   13-16-19
Animal Kingdom  7-17   13-20-22
Super Saver 12-14   15-11-17 
Mine That Bird 11-16  15-21-20 
Big Brown 11-15   16-21-20 
Street Sense 10-8   13-21-19 (Hard Spun 10-16  15-23-21)
Barbaro 8-14   13-17-19
Giacomo 10-14    17-20-21 (Closing Argument 10-13   17-14-20)
Smarty Jones 13-16   16-10-19
Funny Cide 10-17  13-17-18
War Emblem 11-13   17-14-19
Monarchos 7-12   13-16-18 
Fusaichi Pegasus 10-16  15-21-21

16 is my cutoff for winners of KY Derby.  They can, however, run ITM.  So that is one of the angles I use to make my "toss from the win spot" when faced  with a 20 horse  field.  Always Dreaming was an outlier. 

Hope this is interssting to a few people..  But again, it takes years to learn to read the whole profile becuase many horses do  have decent stamina and traid figs so there is other stuff to look at .   BUt I haven't seen a KY Derby winner with low triad last number in 20 years except for Always Dreaming. 

[mysaladdays]

Jun 8, 2024 20:29:27 GMT -5 1hooper said:

www.equineline.com/tdn/pedigree.cfm?tk=SAR&cy=USA&rd=06/08/2024&rn=12&de=D&ref=10978759&pid=4127

Dornoch was probably strangled and made to "rate" instead of letting him run free in some of his races.   

My theory on horses is often to "let them run" and we saw that with the horse in the Epsom Derby who lost his rider and "won" the race.   I am against changing a horse's natural style unless it is something that is really going to adversely afffect them,  and entering them in the correct races that suits their running style certainly helps with that (although not always an option!).  

I am still trying to get over my disappointment in how Sierra Leone ran, that was a bad break the way things started for him plus "all the changes".  I usually won't back a horse who has had too many last minute changes.  

[1hooper]

'TDN Rising Star' Puca already produced 2023 GI Kentucky Derby winner Mage and now adds Mage's full-brother Dornoch as another Classic winner. While Puca is believed to be the ninth mare in history to produce two separate winners of two American Classics, she is only the second to produce individual Kentucky Derby and Belmont winners, following the legendary 1885 mare Cinderella, whose Hastings won the 1896 Belmont and whose Plaudit won the 1898 Derby. Only two other mares in modern history have produced two separate American Classic winners: Better Than Honour (Rags to Riches and Jazil, both in the Belmont) and Weekend Surprise (Summer Squall in the Preakness and A.P. Indy in the Belmont).

John Stewart of Resolute Racing, relatively new to the sport, purchased Puca in 2023 from the Case Clay consignment at Keeneland November for $2.9 million post-sale. She produced a full-brother to Mage and Dornoch for Stewart Apr. 4. Both Mage and Dornoch were bred by Robert Clay's Grandview Equine, who originally purchased the former 'TDN Rising Star' for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November sale. Including her first foal, Gunning (Gun Runner), Puca has three stakes performers from the same number of starters. Puca also has the unraced 2-year-old colt Baeza (McKinzie), who sold to Mayberry Farm for $1.2 million at Keeneland September. She was bred back to Good Magic for 2025.

[grandemac]

I don't pretend to understand much of this thread. In fact when I saw the reference to triads I thoght it was referring to the walking plants in the old horror movie. 

Anyway it does seem relevant that Society Man (by Good Magic) won the Matt Winn for Danny Gargan today at Churchill.

[UpInClass]

Sire of Dornoch ~ winner of the 2024 Belmont Stakes
www.pedigreequery.com/dornoch8