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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 27, 2023 9:44:35 GMT -5
My Derby wagering record speaks for itself...  Despite that, here's my take after having watched the preps replays and looking at pedigrees, human connections. Forte- Likely betting favorite, not sure he'll sustain at 10F being a son of Violence. It'd be fun to see Mike and Vinnie in the winner's circle, but I'll look for a better price on top. Against. Practical Move- Should be forwardly placed, but also not sure about this son of Practical Joke going 10F. Was nearly run down by Skinner going 9F, like that one best of the SA Derby runners. Against. Angel of Empire- Draw a line through the turf try at KD, that was strictly an ill-advised shot at a huge purse. Otherwise, a very progressive colt who is still improving and was visually impressive against the clock and overmatched foes in Arky Derby. Pedigree says no at 10F for this $70K PA-bred, but can't shake the feeling he's going to run big. Prat sticks with him instead of Kingsbarns. For. Tapit Trice- Usually slow from the gate, which could prove a problem in a twenty-horse field, but ought to be finishing well. Progressive colt should relish 10F, breeder Gainesway stayed in for a piece with Mandy Pope (Whisper Hill Farm.) I like the silks, but was that really the best name you could come up with (may not pass the 'Grommet' test  .) For. To be continued... TW |
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 27, 2023 9:59:44 GMT -5
Tenfurlongs, your icon was too small for me to make it out. I take it that is not a moneybag?
FWIW- We have similar thoughts on your first four horses listed. One thing we keep hearing about Tapit Trice is -"he's a Belmont Horse." I get that because of Tapit's sire record vis a vis the Belmont, but If I already think a horse is good enough to win the Belmont, I certainly would not discount him now, for the Derby.
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Apr 27, 2023 12:25:01 GMT -5
A Tapit colt has yet to win the roses. (but Essential Quality 2nd and Tacitus 3rd(thru dq) ran very credible races) Tapit colts have won the Belmont four times. Probably only a matter of time when one gets up at the wire.(at CD) (maybe this year)
Bill Mott interview:
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Post by bobtailnag on Apr 27, 2023 12:26:46 GMT -5
You're in trouble Tom, I put Angel on my top ticket 2 weeks ago. You're only help is if I change my top pick later in the handicapping process.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 27, 2023 18:45:12 GMT -5
Look like good picks to me. Jury still out for me though. I will register my cons. I like it when people poke holes in my horses because it help me. Hope nobody feel insulted when I do that.
Angel of Empire was 70K as a yearling.......but before that he was a $32,000 RNA weanling. All last year I was on the Classic Empire train because I kept thinking he would produce something and it was going to be "his year" and I would have been totally onboard with his progeny. Then, his guys didn't do anything. Then his stud fee was cut in half from what I hear? Maybe he is special. I am not sure yet.
Haven't added Tapit Trice to my picks yet, until post positions are drawn. I feel he needs an outside post so that he can run w/nothing in front of him. When there is a "tank" like him in a race, if he gets behind horses and rider has to stop-n-start him, that would not work out too well, because he takes so long to "get going" in the first place. Try stopping and starting a Mack Truck on a dime. I have him either running 3rd or 6th.
Dunno what to think of Skinner. Only win was a maiden. Does he always hang? Can't seem to make it past 3rd. SA Derby used to be a key race, because Baffert factor. Now, not so sure though I do utterly admire Shirreffs as a horseman. He is getting equipment change i.e, shadow roll for first time.
National Treasure has never won a race. Practical Move has never left California. Practical Move had trouble staying ahead of Mandarin Hero, and Skinner and got tired?
Mandarin Hero was nearly undefeated until this race, but to hear so many "tell it", NAR is a "lesser track". I keep hearing this. Everyone keeps saying NAR is a "lesser track".,........did they look to see just how FEW races on dirt that JRA has for this age group? NAR *is* their dirt track circuit. Saying it's lesser is sort of like shooting at ourselves because US Racing is also "mostly dirt racing". Insulting a circuit where the horses mostly only race on dirt (NAR) just seems odd to me? I am wondering if all of these are just not 10F types ......maybe Preakness for all of them.
One thing I will say, "expensive horses" like $1.3 million, I give extra scrutiny to. (tapit trice). Why? Seems like many of them with the big sale prices are based on future breeding potential because of what’s in their pedigree......, not because they’re necessarily thinking about winning the Kentucky derby.
Other category I give extra scrutiny to: a horse I really like races in a un sanction race on lasix. Then runs graded stakes off it. I wonder Why? Is he a bleeder or is something else is going on? We've only had 2 years of the lasix thing now
All 5 horses last year in the super high five were NEVER LASIXED (in whole career). Not sure why nobody talks about this. Winner of the Belmont, same. This year, harder to figure, as there are many never-lasixed in the field so we have little to go by for comparison.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2023 18:51:17 GMT -5
rarely have i been on 2 prohibitive favorites
this year i am...
no ap so no way to avoid "signers"
might as well just have 50 1$ ebs
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 28, 2023 9:38:57 GMT -5
Tenfurlongs, your icon was too small for me to make it out. I take it that is not a moneybag? FWIW- We have similar thoughts on your first four horses listed. One thing we keep hearing about Tapit Trice is -"he's a Belmont Horse." I get that because of Tapit's sire record vis a vis the Belmont, but If I already think a horse is good enough to win the Belmont, I certainly would not discount him now, for the Derby. Not a moneybag 'shoes. I only used that one because they didn't have a 'bottomless pit' icon.  TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 28, 2023 9:41:38 GMT -5
You're in trouble Tom, I put Angel on my top ticket 2 weeks ago. You're only help is if I change my top pick later in the handicapping process. I'm glad you like him too. I'll probably end up with a main ticket, an alternate ticket, and a saver ticket. He'll probably be the saver. TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 28, 2023 10:52:08 GMT -5
I don't put in the endless hours anymore trying to dissect every angle, it's just one race (sacrilege!) But you can't deny that with twenty horses the payouts can be enormous, so I'll throw some money at it every year. Someone that I respect as a bettor (money manager) taught me that this is the one race where the 'ALL' button can be your best friend. Don't cherry-pick, there's too much chaos afoot. I'll probably still screw it up somehow, you have to admire my consistency  . Two Phil's- Liked both his sire and damsire. General Quarters was the victim of a Leparoux bonehead ride in his Derby, and Hard Spun happened to be born in the same year as Street Sense and Curlin. Not surprised that Two Phil's took to the AW like a champ in the JR Steaks at TP, the Danzig line produces an outsized number of AW winners. Think he reverts to his FG races and will be too close to the sharp end (pace) in this race to offer much down the stretch. He seems like the Ohio or Iowa Derby winner. Against. Lord Miles- Somehow managed to get his nose down in front in the Wood under a 'monkey-with-a-machine-gun' overly aggressive ride by Paco Lopez. Even Irad winces sometimes when he watches Paco. That was a bigly-improved effort (Saffie Joseph, Jr., ladies and gentlemen) in a race where they came home slow despite a glacial pace early. Toss. Against. Derma Sotogake- His win in the UAE Derby was impressive, but that dirt track can really carry frontrunners on the rail. Wonder if jockey Lemaire has ever ridden on CD dirt? Does he try another jailbreak run? Nothing to say he can't win, but also nothing I can hang my hat on either. Against. Kingsbarns- Even more than Angel of Empire, this is the one that makes my Spidey-sense tingle. Sold for $250K at Saratoga as a yearling, then for $800K as a 2yo. Pedigree is purple. Didn't start to breeze until November but hasn't missed a beat since, no gaps on the worktab. Put his foes to sleep and finished strong in 'slow' wire-to-wire LA Derby win, but first two wins were behind hot opening half-miles. Needs to improve again, but no reason he shouldn't, and he may well be sitting 1st, 2nd, or 3rd turning for home. Looking like Jose Ortiz will be getting the mount, scheduled to work him on Saturday. Thinking he'll be double-digit odds, I want some of that. For. To be continued... TW |
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Post by spiderjohn on Apr 28, 2023 14:56:02 GMT -5
Wow 10f
Your senses are right on!
Interesting reading……
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Post by longshot on Apr 28, 2023 15:25:12 GMT -5
Food for thought:
Since 2003 every Derby winner except Giacomo and Mine That Bird and Rich Strike have had at least a 3 “TG Sheet” number in their last race before the Derby and all others but Animal Kingdom had at least a 2 in one of their last two races.45 of 51 horses in the money have had at least a 3 “TG Sheet” number in one of its last 2 races before the Derby. Gun Runner 3rd in 2016,Battle of Midway 3rd in 2017, Golden Soul (2013) are the only 2nd and 3rd place horses not to have at least a 3 in one of their last 2 races before the Derby.
If this holds true this year only Angel of Empire and Forte can win the Derby.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 28, 2023 15:32:39 GMT -5
Raise Cain- Well-beaten in all his runs other than the muddy Gotham. Try the turf after this. Against.
Rocket Can- Burning out his fuse up there again. Barely held on to take the Holy Bull. Has stalled since. Glad Junior has a ride in the Derby. Oh no no no, not the Rocket Can. Against.
Hit Show- Fine pedigree for the West's homebred. Came along slowly last fall, then turned a corner going 9F around two turns. Not sure that he's peaking yet, might be a summer/fall 3yo. Will love the distance. Couldn't beat 50-1 Lord Miles from PP12, not confident in him for this slugfest. We'll talk again before the Jim Dandy. Against.
Confidence Game- For the Zenyatta fanclub. Very well bred, likes CD, and Desormeaux has a knack. Still, claim to fame was winning a sub-par, sloppy edition of the Rebel ten weeks ago. He hits the board, I'll dust it off and move along. Against.
Verifying- The Coolmore Club figured that as long as they are standing Justify as a stallion, they ought to try to get a Derby (Kentucky) horse out of him. The dam was Diva Delite, which really liked the track at TAM. Oh yeah, she also produced Midnight Bisou. $775K later, they have a speed horse for the first Saturday in May. He'll go as far as he can from near the front, wouldn't want to have to pass him if they go slow early. I hope Brad Cox is a great diplomat. For.
Sun Thunder- Nope. Against.
Mage- I worry that it may be too much, too soon with him, but respect the trainer. Another one for the summer/fall. Against.
Disarm- He is similar to Hit Show, only not as good as that one yet. Saratoga calling. Against.
Reincarnate- Needs to come back as a much faster horse. Noticing that Good Magic is turning out some runners, however. Against.
Continuar- Glad he's running, I want to see the hat his trainer chooses for the day. Dude has style, and can train a horse. Can't bet this one though. Against.
Jace's Road- Too slow. Against.
Skinner- Well-bred deep closer will be at the mercy of a pace collapse, which isn't obvious on paper. Still, Shirreffs and Espinoza both know the drill and have the hardware to prove it. May not get there in time, but no way I leave this one out. For.
I'd like to hear what others have in mind, which horses will you be using on your tickets?
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Apr 28, 2023 15:42:46 GMT -5
I love the ALL button in the 3rd spot of trifecta and in Oaks/Derby Double. Redboard alert—- I had a $5 oaks derby double last year with Lukas Secret Oath x All and f’n Rich Strike wins……I had never even looked at or heard of Rich Strike.
Situations like that can become something mathematical …
And putting yourself in the spot for something big to happen
Doesn’t have to happen that often….
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Post by mattcoll on Apr 28, 2023 15:47:52 GMT -5
I also like Verifying, who will not even be 3 yet on Derby Day. He has been beaten by a lot of these already so hopefully he has caught up this spring. Would benefit from an outside post and/or a clean break.
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Post by Badactor on Apr 28, 2023 17:49:38 GMT -5
You see, now we're getting to the good stuff!
Loving it all from Utah... 'cept what you said about my horse.
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Post by spankyupinclass on Apr 28, 2023 21:15:41 GMT -5
I want to see what Large Mack has to say! Has a Canadian horse ever won a Triple Crown race,,,
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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 28, 2023 21:31:35 GMT -5
Northern Dancer 😳 I will let Large Mac (aka TC) mention the other one
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2023 0:03:48 GMT -5
Well I love Hit Show and Confidence Game, but can address that later. (and I will).
You brought up 2 horses I was going to come here and ask you all about.
I am having trouble deciding between Reincarnate and Verifying. Reincarnate certainly looks like a better pedigree to my eye. He's also run ITM in all his 7 races. Of course for 5 of them he was stil with Baffert. But I don't remember him being in his top tier even back then? What gave me an appreciation for him was when I went to the Rebel (In real life I played confidence game). That track wasn't just wet that day...it was deep and muddy. Not the kind of track you can scrape down, roll it or really seal it in any way. It was "up to your ankle" slop. I knew confidence game was a stamina bred, but I was aslo rather impressed that reincarnate ran 3rd in that stuff. It was a very tiring track......not like "sealed wet rolled cement" that you get on G1 days at most tracks when it rains.
I still can't figure out if Verifying HATED the wet or if he just got into that mess of traffic around the turn there where he had no room to even get thru that.
Confidence Game was running 5th/6th most of the way, Verifying was Post #1 and mostly running 3rd, and Reincarnate was running about 9th.......the amount of ground he made up in the stretch was pretty impressive.
Obviously speed fell apart in that race, (though Confidence Game isn't exactly slow, you can see that in his allowance at CD where he beat Rocket Can).
Anyway, I just can't decide between them.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2023 0:13:31 GMT -5
Skinner- Well-bred deep closer will be at the mercy of a pace collapse, which isn't obvious on paper. Still, Shirreffs and Espinoza both know the drill and have the hardware to prove it. May not get there in time, but no way I leave this one out. For. Skinner isn't getting Espinoza. He's getting Juan Hernandez. Flying to CD via Fed Ex on Sunday. Doesn't leave him much time to acclimate, but apparently Shirreffs has been training him out there in CA as if he was going to run in the Derby. Isn't he a deep closer w/out any true tactical speed? Seems like he would need a fast pace. Closers don't bother me but the deep ones, do. All I know is that he runs a good 7F, and I do look at shorter races for perspective. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2023 4:53:44 GMT -5
A Tapit colt has yet to win the roses. Know who else has never won a Derby? Horses who win preps at FG. They win preps. The hit exotics in the Derby. But they don't win. I looked and couldn't find one. If Kingsbarns or Jayces Road wins the Derby it will be a historical moment. I am thinking of adding PA bred Angel of Empire to that curse.....even though he did win the AR Derby after winning at FG. I am still thinking him over. AR Derby winners can go any way as you know. |
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Post by spiderjohn on Apr 29, 2023 6:36:42 GMT -5
Canadian winner = Sunny’s Halo?
Was there for that—did not bet him
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 29, 2023 7:23:10 GMT -5
Skinner- Well-bred deep closer will be at the mercy of a pace collapse, which isn't obvious on paper. Still, Shirreffs and Espinoza both know the drill and have the hardware to prove it. May not get there in time, but no way I leave this one out. For. Skinner isn't getting Espinoza. He's getting Juan Hernandez. Flying to CD via Fed Ex on Sunday. Doesn't leave him much time to acclimate, but apparently Shirreffs has been training him out there in CA as if he was going to run in the Derby. Isn't he a deep closer w/out any true tactical speed? Seems like he would need a fast pace. Closers don't bother me but the deep ones, do. All I know is that he runs a good 7F, and I do look at shorter races for perspective. Wasn't aware of the jockey change, thanks for that. With all due respect to HOFer Espinoza, Hernandez is top dog in CA, riding in great form right now. Jockey upgrade despite unfamiliarity with the horse. Not one I am going to use on top, so that's fine with me. TW |
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 29, 2023 7:26:17 GMT -5
Canadian winner = Sunny’s Halo? Was there for that—did not bet him That was the windiest day I can remember at CD. Played havoc with the infield, things blown every which way. I didn't have him either. |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 29, 2023 8:01:49 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 29, 2023 8:07:07 GMT -5
Seems easy now, but just remember-
2007 Derby
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Curlin
Favorite over 4th choice over 2nd favorite in the wagering: $440.00
Try to hit the Kentucky Derby triple every year, even if it's not your primary wager.
TW
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Apr 29, 2023 9:35:57 GMT -5
Seems easy now, but just remember- "2007 Derby Street Sense Hard Spun Curlin Favorite over 4th choice over 2nd favorite in the wagering: $440.00 Try to hit the Kentucky Derby triple every year, even if it's not your primary wager." Hmmm interesting. Maybe we should take a pool ($342) and take the Japanese runner (Derma) to win with an "all" "all" tri($1). (then the guess work we have of trying to figure out if he's the real deal is done) (Anyone interested in doing this I'll take a piece ) |
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Apr 29, 2023 9:49:30 GMT -5
I don't put in the endless hours anymore trying to dissect every angle, it's just one race (sacrilege!) But you can't deny that with twenty horses the payouts can be enormous, so I'll throw some money at it every year. Someone that I respect as a bettor (money manager) taught me that this is the one race where the 'ALL' button can be your best friend. Don't cherry-pick, there's too much chaos afoot. I'll probably still screw it up somehow, you have to admire my consistency . Two Phil's- Liked both his sire and damsire. General Quarters was the victim of a Leparoux bonehead ride in his Derby, and Hard Spun happened to be born in the same year as Street Sense and Curlin. Not surprised that Two Phil's took to the AW like a champ in the JR Steaks at TP, the Danzig line produces an outsized number of AW winners. Think he reverts to his FG races and will be too close to the sharp end (pace) in this race to offer much down the stretch. He seems like the Ohio or Iowa Derby winner. Against. Lord Miles- Somehow managed to get his nose down in front in the Wood under a 'monkey-with-a-machine-gun' overly aggressive ride by Paco Lopez. Even Irad winces sometimes when he watches Paco. That was a bigly-improved effort (Saffie Joseph, Jr., ladies and gentlemen) in a race where they came home slow despite a glacial pace early. Toss. Against. Derma Sotogake- His win in the UAE Derby was impressive, but that dirt track can really carry frontrunners on the rail. Wonder if jockey Lemaire has ever ridden on CD dirt? Does he try another jailbreak run? Nothing to say he can't win, but also nothing I can hang my hat on either. Against. Kingsbarns- Even more than Angel of Empire, this is the one that makes my Spidey-sense tingle. Sold for $250K at Saratoga as a yearling, then for $800K as a 2yo. Pedigree is purple. Didn't start to breeze until November but hasn't missed a beat since, no gaps on the worktab. Put his foes to sleep and finished strong in 'slow' wire-to-wire LA Derby win, but first two wins were behind hot opening half-miles. Needs to improve again, but no reason he shouldn't, and he may well be sitting 1st, 2nd, or 3rd turning for home. Looking like Jose Ortiz will be getting the mount, scheduled to work him on Saturday. Thinking he'll be double-digit odds, I want some of that. For. To be continued... TW "Wonder if jockey Lemaire has ever ridden on CD dirt?" Think he may have learned (last year) not to run and gun (Crown Pride). Hopefully he will let Verifying have the lead..and let his runner relax a bit. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2023 13:39:03 GMT -5
One thing about Lemaire (which is why I used him in the jockey contest w/out knowing if he would even have a mount): He never makes the same mistake twice. Unfortunately, I'm not a huge fan of Derma Sotogake, although in general I'm a huge fan of Japanese racing and breeding. I think Derma was assissted by the track bias and post position that day, which may have "carried him along"......he was 1 wide most of the race. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2023 13:43:23 GMT -5
Seems easy now, but just remember- "2007 Derby Street Sense Hard Spun Curlin Favorite over 4th choice over 2nd favorite in the wagering: $440.00 Try to hit the Kentucky Derby triple every year, even if it's not your primary wager." Agree! It's a once a year race. I don't have to be right. Plenty of great races on the undercard etc. to play it safe. I go for the gusto in the KY Derby. I usually play my longshots in 2nd place. Got used to doing that playing Oaklawn for 20 years........cuz that's how they come in here, too. |
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Post by shoes on Apr 29, 2023 14:52:21 GMT -5
In the Derby, the back wheel of a longshot in exactas isn't the worst idea. (but you still need to play him to win if you like him).
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