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Post by merasmag on Apr 29, 2023 15:31:07 GMT -5
In the Derby, the back wheel of a longshot in exactas isn't the worst idea. (but you still need to play him to win if you like him). imho u need to keybox a realistic pick with "all" and hope 4 a signer worked with potn |
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Post by spiderjohn on Apr 29, 2023 16:49:02 GMT -5
You can't make a big hit without using big odds runners, and they usually defy normal handicapping logic. So the ALL button comes in to play somewhere in your ticket structure.
At Royal Ascot a few years ago, they installed a few self-betting machines that were close to identical to the machines that I used at Belmont 3 weeks prior.....they had guides in front of them to explain how to use the machines. I stepped up and began to play an 8-runner 10pence trifecta box(cost 33.6pounds). The guide watched me in amazement to learn how to play such a wager. He said "I didn't even know that you could do that!". I was cocky, knowing how to supposedly use the machine, and wasn't paying attention. I hit "repeat" instead of "refund" and ended up with the ticket twice. For some reason(superstition), I kept the 2nd ticket. The race(2nd of the day) was run--I think with 34 or more runners. A 25-1 wins, 30-1 runs 2nd and an 8-1 and 40-1 are in a photo for 3rd.
I tell our party that I think I have it--they start to get crazy and ask who I have in the photo for 3rd. I reply "Believe it or not, I have both of them". Of course, the 8-1 wins a very tight photo for 3rd. I then add the story about how I accidentally have it twice. Tri pays close to 2,000pounds per 10pence wager.
I go to the machine and insert the first ticket--the machine tells me that I have to go to a teller to cash the ticket. I go to a teller and hand her the first ticket. She congratulates me as I hand her the 2nd identical ticket. She runs it through, then tells me that she can't pay me at that time because it was the 2nd race and she didnt have enough cash. She proceeds to write me a receipt for the $$ and tells me to come back after the next race(a few minutes to post) to get paid. I bet 100pounds on the next race, and of course, that horse wins at 9/2. For the first two trifecta tickets, she hands me sealed packets of UK currency, then cashes my next ticket.
I go back to our box, where I am now "that American gambler who hit that big trifecta!". Honestly kept on winning that day, and was very popular for the rest of the week.
Up there with the BIRDSTONE Belmont win + exacta and multiple p3s on that race and a couple of p6s.
Doesnt happen very often, and wont ever happen if you dont play big odds runners.....
I swear a very true story
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Post by merasmag on Apr 29, 2023 17:01:35 GMT -5
i beg to differ. i was STONE COLD on i want revenge...he scratched the morning of the derby
almost everything i had done went out the window BUT i had potn as one of my close other key horselets
lacking time and energy i just said f it and Ekeyboxed potn with all
mine that bird won and i sat o/s the otb waiting to c if they took potn down (they should have)
$1050 signer
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Post by spiderjohn on Apr 29, 2023 18:53:08 GMT -5
Also caught Mine That Bird in the oaks/derby double by ALL buttoning the Derby. Only thing I knew about him was Calvin Borail
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2023 21:17:07 GMT -5
In the Derby, the back wheel of a longshot in exactas isn't the worst idea. (but you still need to play him to win if you like him). Derby is NOT a race I spend a lot on. Too chaos and not enough transparency. So while I truly ENJOY doing the puzzle of the Derby, it's a race where I just pray everyone comes home in one piece and I'm not overly invested in my ticket. When I play it, I play it *cheapo* style $1 trifecta wheels...in this example #1 and #6 would be the 2 horses I like the most. I feel you have to narrow them down. Then I use rest of my $$ for singles on my bomber longshots. trifecta wheels x6 = $102 1-all-6 1-6-all all-1-6 all-6-1 6-1-all 6-all-1 |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2023 21:24:19 GMT -5
So is anyone gonna help me out about reincarnate versus verify my ? earlier in this topic. thanks in advance
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2023 22:17:36 GMT -5
"I'm Legendary, All Legs No Dairy!"
So who are some of my picks?
I will be using Hit Show and Confidence Game on my ticket. Am working on coming up with a total of 6 horses I like, so these are 2.
Rosie Naprvanic: "he just glides over the surface". MySaladDays: "He ain't fast, but he'll be there"
MySaladDays: "oh! 'dem legs,' dem legs, 'dem long long legs"
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Post by merasmag on Apr 29, 2023 22:41:40 GMT -5
wait a second...rosie worked him?
i have been distracted by other life and death matters
butt is she working horselets?
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Post by merasmag on Apr 29, 2023 22:43:16 GMT -5
to this day one of my "friends" says i had charismatic stone cold
to this day i STILL don't remember that
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Post by merasmag on Apr 29, 2023 22:45:26 GMT -5
msd...it is KNOT the length of the legs that count
it is the length of the NOSE
maybe i will graph that out 10 years from now
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 30, 2023 5:35:51 GMT -5
wait a second...rosie worked him? Rosie is an analyst/commentator now. Sort of like Gary Stevens is. Ex-jockeys who are on discussion panels. That was just her observation. Anyway, for rest of my ticket, I'm just going to stick with my 2 favorite aphorisms: 1) Fit Horses Win G1 Racesand/or 2) G1 winners Win G1 Races
Seems logical to think this way and not bang head against wall. On the nose thing, that makes sense for blanket finishes. I prefer a long neck myself. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 30, 2023 5:41:46 GMT -5
Derby/Oaks double looks like a better way to spend my dollars than spreading tons of horses on a KY Derby exotic. The odds on some of the runners in both races are pretty nice!
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 30, 2023 6:08:02 GMT -5
A Tapit colt has yet to win the roses. Know who else has never won a Derby? Horses who win preps at FG. They win preps. The hit exotics in the Derby. But they don't win. I looked and couldn't find one. If Kingsbarns or Jayces Road wins the Derby it will be a historical moment. I am thinking of adding PA bred Angel of Empire to that curse.....even though he did win the AR Derby after winning at FG. I am still thinking him over. AR Derby winners can go any way as you know. I need to correct my post about FG runnersl, specifially LA Derby winners. Only 2 LA Derby horses have won the KY Derby. One was back in 1926 when the race was 1-1/8. The other of course was Grindstone, back in 1996, when the race was 1-1/4. Grindstone was quite a horse, won the LA Derby and came 2nd in the AR Derby. Raced at 5 different tracks that year. He ran 1st or 2nd in all of his 6 races......except that one 6F one at CD (Bashford Manor) which was most likely way too short a distance for him! |
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Post by merasmag on Apr 30, 2023 13:35:10 GMT -5
"On the nose thing, that makes sense for blanket finishes. I prefer a long neck myself."
don't make me re-think my theories!
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Post by merasmag on Apr 30, 2023 13:41:34 GMT -5
So is anyone gonna help me out about reincarnate versus verify my ? earlier in this topic. thanks in advance well...i have jv in the 3jocks contest and haven't cashed a ticket on reincarnate yet does that help? |
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tery
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Post by tery on Apr 30, 2023 14:08:46 GMT -5
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 30, 2023 14:55:27 GMT -5
Welcome to the forum Tery!
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Post by UpInClass on Apr 30, 2023 16:56:37 GMT -5
Thanks for this information! You're welcome, Tery! 😁 Welcome to The Forum. |
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Apr 30, 2023 17:03:11 GMT -5
Thanks for this information! Welcome Tery ! Information is free and plentiful here. (and hopefully can help put a few dollars in your pocket) |
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 1, 2023 10:40:24 GMT -5
Know who else has never won a Derby? Horses who win preps at FG. They win preps. The hit exotics in the Derby. But they don't win. I looked and couldn't find one. If Kingsbarns or Jayces Road wins the Derby it will be a historical moment. I am thinking of adding PA bred Angel of Empire to that curse.....even though he did win the AR Derby after winning at FG. I am still thinking him over. AR Derby winners can go any way as you know. Mandaloun technically "won" after prepping last in the LA Derby in 2021. FG prepped horses have ran quite well in the Derby going back to Funny Cide. Additionally with the change in schedule and distances of their races in recent years we have Revolutionary, Epicenter, Zandon, etc hitting the board so I am not as quick to discount horses running there. |
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 1, 2023 10:55:25 GMT -5
As for the For/Against question, I sit here a couple of hours pre-draw:
Most Likely winner: Angel of Empire/Forte (against Forte with declining speed figures)
Using: Two Phil's (highest fig, win over track), Verifying (pedigree and training well, class at 2, delayed start at 3), and Skinner (gut only)
Tapit Trice or Disarm are the ones I'm most leery of not including at this point. Practical Move fits that bill too as he is a fighter but just not feeling it. Hit Show another I hate to leave out as done nothing wrong, just hasn't done anything overly well. Mage (inexperienced and bad breaks) and Kingsbarn (inexperienced but big pace advantage) are ones I am also against. If any horse were to rebound and run incredibly well at a big number, Rocket Can seems to fit that bill for me. If Confidence Game or Derma Sotogake hit the board, I likley cash nothing. No way I am taking a horse off a 10 week layoff here, nor a horse from overseas, especially one sired by Mind Your Biscuits at low odds.
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on May 1, 2023 14:39:13 GMT -5
1. Hit Show (30-1) AGAINST - ONLY BAD RACE WAS AT CD , #1 POST MEANS HE'LL BE CLOSER THAN I THINK IS OPTIMAL 2. Verifying (15-1) FOR- FROM A TRIP PERSPECTIVE HE SHOULD HAVE A DREAM TRIP3. Two Phil's (12-1) AGAINST- FORTE AND ANGEL OF EMPIRE SEEM TO HAVE THIS ONE COVERED 4. Confidence Game (20-1) AGAINST - MAYBE IF IT RAINS 5. Tapit Trice (5-1) FOR- CAN'T KNOCK THE FORM, TRIP IS THE CONCERN AT LOW ODDS
6. Kingsbarns (12-1) FOR- AGAIN SHOULD HAVEA NICE TRIP , EXPERIENCE A CONCERN , BUT NOT A BIG ONE7. Reincarnate (50-1) AGAINST- HAS DONE NOTHING TO IMPRESS 8. Mage (15-1) UNDER - HAS ABILITY AND GAVE FORTE A SCARE, BUT LACKS EXPERIENCE 9. Skinner (20-1) UNDER - HAS ABILITY , WILLING RUNNER 10. Practical Move (10-1) UNDER- DONE NOTHING WRONG I JUST DON’T THINK HE STAYS THE DISTANCE 11. Disarm (30-1) AGAINST- HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT DESPITE THE BARNS' ENTHUSIASM , MANY OTHERS LOOK BETTER\ 12. Jace's Road (15-1) AGAINST - A PACE FACTOR AT BEST 13. Sun Thunder (30-1) AGAINST - BEATEN BY MANY IN THIS FIELD SEVERAL TIMES 14. Angel of Empire (8-1) FOR - CAN'T KNOCK THE CREDENTIALS, PLAYER15. Forte (3-1) FOR- THE GOLD STANDARD OF CONTENDERS, PLETCHER KNEW HE HAD POINTS , HE WASN'T FULLY CRANKED FOR THE FLA DERBY16. Raise Cain (15-1) AGAINST - MAYBE IF IT RAINS 17. Derma Sotogake (10-1) FOR- HAVE TO RESPECT WHAT THE JAPANESE HORSES ARE ACHIEVING THESE DAYS, BEAT CONTINUAR 3 TIMES18. Rocket Can (15-1) UNDER- ADDS BLINKERS AND MAY HANG ON FOR PIECE 19. Lord Miles (30-1) WTF IS UP WITH THIS HORSE , WHAT CHANGED IN THE WOOD ?, STILL AN AGAINST 20. Continuar (50-1) AGAINST -DS BEAT HIM 3 TIMES, PASS |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 1, 2023 23:49:33 GMT -5
Hey Ozzy I think you read my post wrong. I didn't say discount them from exotic positions. I myself have used them in exotics. I said they don't often win. I also didn't say they couldn't win. Just that, they HAVEN'T.  2 in history.(One was back in 1926 when the race was 1-1/8. The other of course was Grindstone, back in 1996, when the race was 1-1/4.) DQs don't count as a win to me unless I make a wager and win or lose money. That still means you technically ran 2nd, even if you did get the purse money. Max Security ran 1st, we saw it happen. Those of us who had Country House who ran 2nd in reality, just got a windfall of $$ because of a DQ........but we also had to have supported Country House and Tiz the Law enough to capitalize on the wager. I loved Country House for that race, so..... |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 1, 2023 23:52:19 GMT -5
I'm thinking of tossing Two Phils at least in upper part of any ticket, i.e my trifecta. Initially I had liked General Quarters as BMS because he could run on anything. But Two Phil's best races came over 1) sloppy dirt; and 2)synthetic
KY Derby will be dry/fast track/ and not synth. His pedigree looks very synth to me. And he lost ground in the stretch in every route dirt race.
I don't think he's Animal Kingdom. Of course we don't know for sure, since Rivelli has pretty much had him "hidden" over there at Hawthorne (for some reason).
As for Angel of Empire, for the win spot I will let him beat me. That doesn't mean I may not find a spot for him in a superfecta somewhere, but similar to others who won't wager horses from overseas, (I've been "against" Derma Sotograke from the day he hit the board, but I like Continuar), I don't quite trust a PA.bred who has a sire dosage index in the stratosphere (9.00) Never seen a KY Derby winner with that, and don't expect to.
I like John Shirreffs and I don't mind closers, but Skinner is a DEEP closer. He will have to come from way way out of it and I don't think he has the tactical speed to do that unless the race falls apart.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 2, 2023 8:59:29 GMT -5
I'm thinking of tossing Two Phils at least in upper part of any ticket, i.e my trifecta. Initially I had liked General Quarters as BMS because he could run on anything. But Two Phil's best races came over 1) sloppy dirt; and 2)synthetic KY Derby will be dry/fast track/ and not synth. His pedigree looks very synth to me. And he lost ground in the stretch in every route dirt race. I don't think he's Animal Kingdom. Of course we don't know for sure, since Rivelli has pretty much had him "hidden" over there at Hawthorne (for some reason). As for Angel of Empire, for the win spot I will let him beat me. That doesn't mean I may not find a spot for him in a superfecta somewhere, but similar to others who won't wager horses from overseas, (I've been "against" Derma Sotograke from the day he hit the board, but I like Continuar), I don't quite trust a PA.bred who has a sire dosage index in the stratosphere (9.00) Never seen a KY Derby winner with that, and don't expect to. I like John Shirreffs and I don't mind closers, but Skinner is a DEEP closer. He will have to come from way way out of it and I don't think he has the tactical speed to do that unless the race falls apart. A few counter-points, just for discussion purposes. 1) Many feel that CD is kind to horses with turf/synth proclivities. You mentioned Animal Kingdom, in addition Wise Dan won his only dirt grade 1 at CD. Paddy O'Prado and Dullihan both ran very well at CD. Barbaro began as a turf horse. 2 Phils also ran pretty well at the Fairgrounds. 2) Strike the Gold for Zito had a DI of 9.0 going into his Derby. I remember well, many tossing him on that basis. A year or two later his DI was lowered on the basis of someone in his blood lines either being re-classified or elevated in the system. He is not now counted as an exception, but he was at the time the gates opened. Watching Angel's last two races, he was not giving up ground in the last 1/16. 3) I've been leaning to Dermo, then leaning off him, and now I'm leaning back on after watching video of all 8 of his races. He has run on turf, he's run clockwise and counter-clockwise. He's run in large fields, he's run inside and outside. He has a great foundation as a 2 year old, and he's been here longer to acclimate than many/most prior UAE disappointments. 4) I love Shirriffs too but share your concerns about Skinner. |
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 2, 2023 9:47:57 GMT -5
Derma always appears to want to do more in the mornings. Feeling good to my eye, no surprise to me if he runs well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2023 10:08:01 GMT -5
I don't know how you can't go all in in Two Phil's after watching this.
I'd ride Rivelli!
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 2, 2023 10:33:09 GMT -5
Hey Ozzy I think you read my post wrong. I didn't say discount them from exotic positions. I myself have used them in exotics. I said they don't often win. I also didn't say they couldn't win. Just that, they HAVEN'T. 2 in history.(One was back in 1926 when the race was 1-1/8. The other of course was Grindstone, back in 1996, when the race was 1-1/4.) DQs don't count as a win to me unless I make a wager and win or lose money. That still means you technically ran 2nd, even if you did get the purse money. Max Security ran 1st, we saw it happen. Those of us who had Country House who ran 2nd in reality, just got a windfall of $$ because of a DQ........but we also had to have supported Country House and Tiz the Law enough to capitalize on the wager. I loved Country House for that race, so..... I think the main thing is the Fairgrounds in general has changed a good deal over the last decade, particularly post CDI acquisition. The meet used to end in mid-March with horses running another prep prior to the Derby had they ran in the LA Derby. Additionally, the purse money wasn't that great and many didn't use as a winter base. I think that has all changed now with the influx of purse money, a more well defined prep schedule allowing horses to develop in one locale, and extension of the meet. Heck, not that long ago the FL Derby wasn't even a final prep. All roads came through the AK Derby, Wood, Bluegrass, or SA Derby... Many still do but but changing the scheduling and allowing the FL Derby and LA Derby to serve as final preps has really changed the way I look at final preps. I just don't think it is an apples to apples comparison any longer and you cannot discount those utilizing New Orleans as the final stop. Just my two cents. |
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Post by tenfurlongs on May 2, 2023 11:39:55 GMT -5
I don't know how you can't go all in in Two Phil's after watching this. I'd ride Rivelli!  TW |
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