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Post by cherokeescot on Jun 17, 2021 10:30:25 GMT -5
…and my first bet since the Kentucky Derby 🤑
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 17, 2021 10:44:58 GMT -5
I'm not sure that Stradivarius could have caught the winner even without trouble, but as the race developed, I couldn't understand why on earth Frankie put himself down on the rail. That horse wants to sit in the two or three path with cover, which gives the rider options. Happy for Subjectivist and connections, however; good for Joe Fanning. All the other riders came out of the room and gave him a cheer when he came back to the winner's enclosure, obviously a popular guy.
Rab Havlin won the previous race, Paul Hanagan won the Norfolk, Charlie Bishop won yesterday. Veteran jockeys well represented among the winners.
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 17, 2021 11:39:12 GMT -5
With TRUESHAN out, #12 seemed the best shot, and at a surprising price. At the last minute, I changed my decent #12 win wager to smaller, with a 12/3-4-6/ALL tri pw. Got back enough to cover the loser tri, yet again a blown oppprtunity with a great win price.
I never thought the chalk had much chance as the race developed, with #12 sitting pretty, and 3 4 looming late. Darn 9
Large win wager on #3 in the 2nd……thought he would have been dq’ed here
Sitting even after 3 days—could be a lot better, and definitely a lot worse.
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Post by cherokeescot on Jun 17, 2021 12:18:43 GMT -5
Tom , did you hit the exacta in the last with #30 winning ?
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 17, 2021 12:40:17 GMT -5
Tom , did you hit the exacta in the last with #30 winning ?
No, I really liked Lord Rapscallion (who got fourth), but decided to play Danyah $5 w/p so only a very small profit. That was dumb because I'm trying to give myself the chance make three-figure scores (or more) in every race if possible, picked a bad time to go conservative. Hopefully Subjective treated you well.
TW
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Post by cherokeescot on Jun 17, 2021 12:47:13 GMT -5
He did but it’s all subjective really.
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spanky
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,663
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Post by spanky on Jun 17, 2021 16:00:54 GMT -5
so, that's what trees look like...
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2021 8:21:52 GMT -5
Torrential rains overnight have obviously changed everything as far as the ground is concerned. Now called Heavy. Uncharted waters for many of these.
Albany Stakes: 2- Cachet (7-1) loved soft ground at Newmarket, winning by 5 1/2. 10- Lady Ayresome (20-1) has been progressive in three starts, won last over soft. 13- Sandrine (10-1) defeated subsequent stakes-winner Oscula over the AW in only start, pedigree says conditions may suit. 5- Eve Lodge (20-1) is a tip horse. Supposedly Charlie Fellowes thinks she's the best 2yo filly he's had, and he's had a few.
EX- 2,10,13/2,3,5,6,9,10,11,13 WIN- 5
TW
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Post by cindyloujazz on Jun 18, 2021 8:29:35 GMT -5
Taking a shot in the 1st with #15 Sunstrike. Many of my picks were scratched in other races. Just playing the 5th and 7th after this race. Good luck to all who play today. 😃
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Post by cherokeescot on Jun 18, 2021 8:39:14 GMT -5
Track didn’t look too bad in the opener . Was hoping Hello You would hang on but she ran a strong race . Nice exacta by Tom to start the day .
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2021 9:13:40 GMT -5
Track didn’t look too bad in the opener . Was hoping Hello You would hang on but she ran a strong race . Nice exacta by Tom to start the day .
Thanks. Went back to the well and caught a dollar exacta in the second too. Have to completely re-handicap the 3yo GI sprint now. Good start so far.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2021 9:34:39 GMT -5
Commonwealth Cup: 3- Dragon Symbol (6-1) has been highly progressive over five starts as a 3yo, winning three times on the AW by open lengths, taking a conditions stakes first time on grass, then just missing over heavy ground at Haydock. Oisin Murphy climbs back aboard. I've followed 16- Isabella Giles (20-1) throughout her career. She was a fine two year old, progressing until she met GI company over a mile. Her form hasn't looked quite as good this season, but she'll handle the ground and have the stamina required turning back to 6F. 21- Suesa (9-2) will go off way below her m/l odds. Four-for-four over soft or heavy in France, gets William Buick in the saddle. Underlay, but they only pay out the winning numbers.
EX- 3,16,21/1,3,4,5,13,16,21
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2021 10:07:18 GMT -5
Very surprised at the DQ, that's not how they do it over there. The jockey normally gets days, and they leave the results the same. Dragon Symbol clearly drifted right, herding Campanelle with him, but there was no obvious bumping and Dettori never stopped riding. Boo!
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 18, 2021 10:10:15 GMT -5
I have now vet a runner dq’ed at Royal Ascot. Have been dq’ed pretty much everywhere no Cheap exacta won’t help
Like 2 in the 4th And 11in the 6th
Good luck!
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Post by cherokeescot on Jun 18, 2021 10:11:07 GMT -5
I think the Stewards were being very diplomatic there . If it had been different connections no way would they have put up Campanelle
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2021 10:48:41 GMT -5
Sandringham: Rooting for 6- Create Belief (12-1) for Johnny Murtagh. Progressive over soft ground, looking for more improvement today. 16- Teodolina (15-1) is a very consistent runner which has handled soft/heavy conditions, don't overlook Richard Hannon. #19- Belief (8-1) is a progressive runner for Cheveley Park/Haggas/Fallon, last was a good win, gets a few pounds from the others. 21- Urban Violet (30-1) is in my stable watch, taking a big shot up in class here but may handle conditions better than many.
EX- 6,16,19/1,6,11,16,19,21 W/P- 21
TW
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propro
UpInClass Member
Posts: 921
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Post by propro on Jun 18, 2021 10:49:18 GMT -5
I don't understand what their rules are for dq. I watched Mohaafeth drift in 7 paths yesterday and take Roman Empire's path away twice, including the final death check so Roman wouldn't slam into the rail...and nothing.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2021 11:33:37 GMT -5
Duke Of Edinburgh: Big swing.
EX- 3,4,13/2,3,4,5,6,8,11,12,13
TW
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,719
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Post by eye123 on Jun 18, 2021 11:57:37 GMT -5
Tom....nice handicapping today.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2021 12:11:25 GMT -5
Palace of Hollyrood: smaller swing.
EX- 14,16/2,8,10,12,14,16,20
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2021 15:01:23 GMT -5
Tom....nice handicapping today. Thanks. Two three-figure exactas, one smaller exacta, DQ'd from a smaller exacta, and a $13.20 winner (Create Belief) that I didn't bet straight (dumbass). Good day today, Saturday will tell the tale. Hopefully the ground will dry out a bit (first post 2:30pm there), but have to expect soft at best. TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 19, 2021 7:00:38 GMT -5
The Queen will be in attendance today, and has several runners in with a chance. Heavy ground again. Many scratches, check your sources. Only tip I got was #15- Storm Damage (20-1) in The Jersey Stakes. Impressive AW run in only start, who knows about deep track?
Chesham: 2- Masekela (5-1) won only start at Goodwood on soft ground. Not particularly fast, and drew the one-hole, but at least we know he likes less than good ground. 4- Point Lonsdale (6-5) won going 7F on yielding ground at the Curragh, obvious choice at underlaid price. If there is justice in the world, then 7- Sweeping (12-1) will win for Archie Watson, who got DQd from a GI win yesterday. Second to the highly regarded Dhabab in only start, over good-to-firm, but his grandsire is Pivotal, a potent off-track influence.
2,4,7/1,2,3,4,7,9,10
Jersey: 10- Mutasaabeq (5-1) has been progressive in three starts, won debut on heavy, wasn't beaten badly in Guineas, draws dreaded one-hole. 12- Naval Crown (6-1) always seems to get overshadowed by some other Godolphin star, but he has quietly put together a pretty good race record. Has run okay on soft/heavy before, maybe he moves up today. Drew the 15-hole which will help his chances. 18- Light Refrain (15-1) likes cut in the ground, and was only a length behind Rohaan and Dragon Symbol (DQd yesterday in GI) in GII at Haydock. Daughter of Frankel has a big chance, The Queen's upset special!
EX- 10,12,18/4,9,10,12,13,17,18,19 WIN- 18
Hardwicke: Scratches took some of the luster off this one. 6- Ilaraab (8-1) has been progressive (duh) winning six of seven starts, seasonal debut (beating Raymond Tusk) was best yet, big player. 15- Wonderful Tonight (10-1) (who makes these m/l odds for Brisnet anyways?) clearly relishes deep ground, dual-GI winning filly makes seasonal debut in a tough spot but she may go at 5-1.
EX- 6,15/2,5,6,7,14,15 Exacta- $38.40
Diamond Jubilee: For a GI race, there are a lot of horses entered here that seem better suited for different distnces/different ground conditions, but I guess if you've been pointing to the race you have to go through with it. 2- Dream of Dreams (3-1) had a workmanlike win on reappearance, likes soft, looks to finally get over the hump in this race (second two years in a row). 7- Nahaarr (9-2) has shown his hole card: he likes soft ground. Just missed to Starman last out, and that one scratched seeking firmer ground elsewhere. Worth a win bet at 4-1 or better.
EX- 2,7/1,5,14 Exacta- $55.20
more to follow after coffee...
TW
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Post by cherokeescot on Jun 19, 2021 8:42:15 GMT -5
Was shouting for the Queen’s horse in the opener . That would have been a terrific start to the day with Her Majesty in attendance . Point Lonsdale a worthy winner but not bettable at 3-5 on heavy ground.
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
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Post by eye123 on Jun 19, 2021 8:49:17 GMT -5
Was shouting for the Queen’s horse in the opener . That would have been a terrific start to the day with Her Majesty in attendance . Point Lonsdale a worthy winner but not bettable at 3-5 on heavy ground. The ex with those two was very generous.
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jun 19, 2021 8:58:36 GMT -5
Tom...where are you taking the prices from? Looked yesterday and today......and prices vary depending upon which ADW your looking at.
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
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Post by ozzy on Jun 19, 2021 9:06:12 GMT -5
I’ll take a stab at a few on the closing program:
Tom has already named my pick in the 2nd - Storm Damage- a tip but also a hunch play with storms rolling through last night and today. Musing with Mutadsaabeq, Creative Force, and the Queen’s Light Refrain
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 19, 2021 9:20:49 GMT -5
Tom...where are you taking the prices from? Looked yesterday and today......and prices vary depending upon which ADW your looking at. If you mean the prices for the contest, I'm using the twinspires.com payouts.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 19, 2021 9:28:56 GMT -5
Wokingham: Wide open race. 4- Rohaan (8-1) has form lines thru Creative Force, Saint Lawrence, and Dragon Symbol in his last three races. Picks up some weight today, but ran very well over heavy ground last time. 6- Mr. Lupton (15-1) really seems to go well over soft conditions, just missing in the Ayr Gold Cup after a poor start. Draws the stands side, will be coming from way out of it.
EX- 4,6/1,4,6,14,15,18,24 Exacta- $47.30
Golden Gates: Also fairly wide open. 4- Visualisation (8-1) has been in terrific form on soft ground this year, his last on heavy at the Curragh points him out. 11- King Frankel (7-1) has been frustrating to follow, with a turf record of 6/1-5-0. Handles deep ground, maybe Frankie can sort him out today.
EX- 4,11/2,3,6,9,10,12,17
Queen Alexandra: 2m5f143y to end the meeting. 8- Falcon Eight (5-1) 6yo lightly-raced gelded son of Galileo is 10/4-1-2, clearly has physical issues but runs well when he's right. Took the Chester Cup last time over soft ground, Frankie looking to end the day with a flying dismount. 14- Stratum (5-1) goes for Willie Mullins/Ryan Moore, won the Cesarewitch in 2019, just missed in the Lonsdale Cup (GII) last season.
EX- 8,14/3,4,6,8,14,15,17 Exacta- $359.00
TW
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Post by cherokeescot on Jun 19, 2021 10:36:49 GMT -5
Despite the heavy rain it’s been a very chalky day so far at Royal Ascot. JolyB with three out of three in the contest and seven winners out of 12 is still pretty impressive nevertheless.
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Post by cherokeescot on Jun 19, 2021 11:06:28 GMT -5
Outstanding run by Rohaan to come from last to first in final 2 furlongs. Popular win amongst the UIC community 🤑
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