|
Post by cherokeescot on Jan 27, 2023 2:48:22 GMT -5
Race 8 #1 Famed (5-1) #2 Miss Speedy (20-1) #4 Obligatory (7/5) #7 Maryquitecontrary (5-1) #10 R Adios Jersey (8-1)
Race 9 #3 Pao Alto (8-1) #4 Abaan (5-1) #7 Channel Maker (3-1) #10 Reigning Spirit (20-1) #11 Red Knight (9/2)
Race 10 #1 Miles D (3-1) #4 Octane (20-1) #6 Black Belt (5-1) #9 Endorsed (5-1)
Race11 #3 Wakanaka (5-1) #4 Sweet Enough (20-1) #6 Queen Goddess (9/2) #9 Shantisarra (9/5)
Race 12 #3 Atone (12-1) #4 Hurricane Dream (15-1) #6 Lady Speightspeare (6-1) #10 Ivar (5-2)
Race 13 #4 White Abarrio (10-1) #6 Art Collector (10-1) #8 Get Her Number (15-1) #10 Cyberknife (5-2)
|
|
|
Post by merasmag on Jan 27, 2023 3:32:07 GMT -5
you saw what i posted (i think). a ticket w/o defunded is a losing ticket imo
|
|
tc
UpInClass Member
Posts: 2,111
|
Post by tc on Jan 27, 2023 9:50:55 GMT -5
Good luck all...may the pool swell to astronomical sums and may you have the single winning ticket.
|
|
|
Post by spiderjohn on Jan 27, 2023 10:20:02 GMT -5
If we hit or whiff tomorrow and there is a massive carry-over, I am willing to try again Sunday Who else?
|
|
|
Post by cherokeescot on Jan 27, 2023 10:26:07 GMT -5
Letās roll what we win with our Pick 4 into Sundays Pick 6 . Tony \ Tom \ Spider \ Buehller how about you guys coming up with a Pick 4 ticket for Saturday with 5 horses in each race. Just make sure you include Defunded in the final leg !
|
|
tc
UpInClass Member
Posts: 2,111
|
Post by tc on Jan 27, 2023 11:01:53 GMT -5
Letās roll what we win with our Pick 4 into Sundays Pick 6 . Tony \ Tom \ Spider \ Buehller how about you guys coming up with a Pick 4 ticket for Saturday with 5 horses in each race. Just make sure you include Defunded in the final leg ! Shouldn't we wait until tomorrow to decide the strategy for this wager? If the P6 ticket is still alive after the 1st 2 legs then I suggest trying to hedge with the selections for the P4 rather than making selections as a stand alone wager. If we happen to get knocked out in the 1st 2 legs of the P6 then just run back your P6 selections for the P4 races while adding 1 to each of the 4 runners selected. If this happens, you can add defunded to the last race. If we r still alive in the P6, I suggest our ticket for the P4 includes 1 or 2 singles (which are already covered in the P6) and using the all button (or as close to it as possible) in the remaining 2 or 3 races rather than a 4*5 ticket across 4 legs of the P4. Just my initial thoughts on wagering strategy...which may be as important as the handicapping.
|
|
|
Post by tenfurlongs on Jan 27, 2023 11:21:42 GMT -5
R10- Miles D (1), Mish (3), Black Belt (6), Picking Up Pennies (7), The Reds (10)
R11- Dalika (2), Wakanaka (3), Sweet Enough (4), Queen Goddess (6), Shantisara (9)
R12- Wit (1), Atone (3), Hurricane Dream (4), Lady Speightspeare (6), Ivar (10)
R13- Proxy (1), White Abarrio (4), Defunded (5), Cyberknife (10) only four in here
TW
|
|
|
Post by cherokeescot on Jan 27, 2023 12:17:58 GMT -5
Tony , Iām taking part in the Tampa Bay Gasparilla Pirates parade tomorrow so will be out of pocket most of the day . Happy to transfer the funds today if someone is willing to take on the responsibility . Arrrrrrrrrrrr !
|
|
tc
UpInClass Member
Posts: 2,111
|
Post by tc on Jan 27, 2023 12:24:07 GMT -5
Tony , Iām taking part in the Tampa Bay Gasparilla Pirates parade tomorrow so will be out of pocket most of the day . Happy to transfer the funds today if someone is willing to take on the responsibility . Arrrrrrrrrrrr ! I'd love to take the cash and put the wagers in but being in Canada I can only bet in Canadian dollars on 1 platform, namely HPIbets. I think it would be best if somebody based in the US places the bets as the US-CAN exchange issues and the different takeouts would probably complicate matters. If nobody else is willing to take it on then I suggest we finalize the P4 today and play it as a stand alone wager without regard to hedging and hope for the best.
|
|
tc
UpInClass Member
Posts: 2,111
|
Post by tc on Jan 27, 2023 12:32:34 GMT -5
R10- Miles D (1), Mish (3), Black Belt (6), Picking Up Pennies (7), The Reds (10) R11- Dalika (2), Wakanaka (3), Sweet Enough (4), Queen Goddess (6), Shantisara (9) R12- Wit (1), Atone (3), Hurricane Dream (4), Lady Speightspeare (6), Ivar (10) R13- Proxy (1), White Abarrio (4), Defunded (5), Cyberknife (10) only four in here TW I would add the following for consideration in addition to what Tom posted: r10: #9 Endorsed, #13 Twelve Volt Man r11: #7 Lady Rockstar r12: #5 One More Bid, #7 Speaking Scout, #12 City Man, #13 King Cause r13: #3 Riden with NO POLITICS, #7 Skippylongstocking
|
|
5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,382
|
Post by 5wide on Jan 27, 2023 14:11:34 GMT -5
I Prefer Fire on Time to Miss speedy , but mostly happy with the pics otherwise.
|
|
5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,382
|
Post by 5wide on Jan 27, 2023 14:35:45 GMT -5
Also prefer Defunded to Art collector.
|
|
|
Post by Badactor on Jan 27, 2023 15:06:56 GMT -5
Mike Smith ("Money Mike") is not flying all the way across the country to not win.
This jockey at those prices... just sayin'.
|
|
|
Post by goldandmyrrh on Jan 27, 2023 15:24:00 GMT -5
I'm confused. Are we playing the P6 Saturday or Sunday? Or P4 Saturday then P6 Sunday?
I do think the SatP4-SunP6 strategy is best. We're risking having a sole winner Saturday vs. the reward of what will likely be a 4-5M pool Sun. that has payoffs 3x the size than they are on non-mandatory Saturday to multiple winners. With the higher pool 6x the size. I see the voting is closed and whatever has been decided is fine. I'll have some handicapping picks tonight once I know what races to analyze,
|
|
|
Post by merasmag on Jan 27, 2023 15:48:59 GMT -5
Tony , Iām taking part in the Tampa Bay Gasparilla Pirates parade tomorrow so will be out of pocket most of the day . Happy to transfer the funds today if someone is willing to take on the responsibility . Arrrrrrrrrrrr ! I'd love to take the cash and put the wagers in but being in Canada I can only bet in Canadian dollars on 1 platform, namely HPIbets. I think it would be best if somebody based in the US places the bets as the US-CAN exchange issues and the different takeouts would probably complicate matters. If nobody else is willing to take it on then I suggest we finalize the P4 today and play it as a stand alone wager without regard to hedging and hope for the best. PLEASE bet the p4 as a stand-alone wager and i agree on skippylongstocking...i'm personally playin riden with NO POLITICS to come in last
|
|
|
Post by cherokeescot on Jan 27, 2023 15:53:12 GMT -5
Race 8 #1 Famed (5-1) #2 Miss Speedy (20-1) #4 Obligatory (7/5) #7 Maryquitecontrary (5-1) #5 FIRE ON TIME (20-1) Race 9 #3 Pao Alto (8-1) #4 Abaan (5-1) #7 Channel Maker (3-1) #10 Reigning Spirit (20-1) #11 Red Knight (9/2) Race 10 #1 Miles D (3-1) #4 Octane (20-1) #6 Black Belt (5-1) #9 Endorsed (5-1) Race11 #3 Wakanaka (5-1) #4 Sweet Enough (20-1) #6 Queen Goddess (9/2) #9 Shantisarra (9/5) Race 12 #3 Atone (12-1) #4 Hurricane Dream (15-1) #6 Lady Speightspeare (6-1) #10 Ivar (5-2) Race 13 #4 White Abarrio (10-1) # #8 Get Her Number (15-1) #10 Cyberknife (5-2) #5 DEFUNDED (6-1) Thanks for the input so far . changes Out R Adios Jersey In Fire On Time Out Art Collector In Defunded
|
|
|
Post by cherokeescot on Jan 27, 2023 15:57:49 GMT -5
Posting this for the third time . Can we limit this thread please to the Saturday P6 discussion
posted this elsewhere but will put it here also to make sure everyone sees it.
Here is my suggested betting strategy
20c Rainbow Pick 6 Bet 5 x 5 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 ( aim to include at least one longshot in each race ) 6400 bets @ 0.20 = $1280
50c Late Pick 4 .(Guaranteed $750k) Bet 5 x 5 x 5 x 5. 625 bets @ 0.50 = $312.50
Total raised $1,590 . Total outlay $1592.50. I will contribute the additional $2.50
|
|
|
Post by merasmag on Jan 27, 2023 16:59:47 GMT -5
previously posted elsewhere:
my speed ticket---4,5,7/4,6,7,9/3,4,6,7,9,11/2,3,6/6/2,4,5,7
edit-ok 10f...i'm gonna play THIS-4/4/3,6/3,6/6/5. these are the horselets(TM) we each picked in the end
the one's we picked first round
4,5,7
4,6,7
3,7,9
2,3,6
6
5,7
winner winner chicken dinner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
how much is this? will you play one bev?
|
|
|
Post by merasmag on Jan 27, 2023 17:28:06 GMT -5
omg---i have confused tc and 10f-but we are all so close to each other i will recalculate later just using those we named
|
|
|
Post by phlierfreak on Jan 27, 2023 18:03:23 GMT -5
okay but can you start a thread where we can discuss if a pirate should or shouldnt wear a kilt?
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on Jan 27, 2023 19:44:27 GMT -5
R13- Proxy (1), White Abarrio (4), Defunded (5), Cyberknife (10) only four in here That matches what I would have, but I'm not in the pool. Hope its okay if I have have any thoughtful handicapping contributions to make in pools I am not in. My insights are that The Pegasus winner is usually 4 or 5 years old. That particular historical is pretty potent, like over 60%. Peg winners didn't run really short races in their very first maiden, they start out at 6.5F, not 5.5, not 6.0F----that stat has about a 57-59% potentcy. Other observations for me is that the winner is usually somewhat well-rested. So I made my personal cutoff "anything after Nov 25th 2022" toss from the win spot. (Defunded failed this by a sliver) Left me with Proxy, Cyberknife, and possibly White Abarrio (only because a possible GS specialist) and Defunded (who I still don't think will win...but I can see the reasons you would have to include in an exercise such as this pool with a lot of players. Leaving off one horse in a pool this size would be dumb.) My superfecta LS will be Last Samarai. I have always loved him and he's a 9F specialist. My vote for runs last would be Get Her Number. This one looks like Firenze Fire to me.
|
|
|
Post by merasmag on Jan 27, 2023 19:51:30 GMT -5
agree on last sam-i will do a baffert/dwl eb
|
|
|
Post by spiderjohn on Jan 27, 2023 22:17:37 GMT -5
late p4
10th--#2 Noble Drama #3 Mish #7 Picking Up Pennies #9 Endorsed #12 Prevalence 11th--#2 Dalika #3 Wakanaka #6 Queen Goddess #7 Lady Rocket #9 Shantisara 12th--#1 Wit #6 Lady Speightspeare #7 Speaking Scout #11 Master Piece #12 City Man 13th--#4 White Abarrio #5 Defunded #10 Cyberknife
|
|
5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,382
|
Post by 5wide on Jan 27, 2023 22:40:50 GMT -5
Race 8Ā #1 Famed (5-1) #2 Miss Speedy (20-1) #4 Obligatory (7/5) #7 Maryquitecontrary (5-1) #5 FIRE ON TIME (20-1) Race 9Ā #3 Pao Alto (8-1) #4 Abaan (5-1) #7 Channel Maker (3-1) #10 Reigning Spirit (20-1) #11 Red Knight (9/2) Race 10Ā #1 Miles D (3-1) #4 Octane (20-1) #6 Black Belt (5-1) #9 Endorsed (5-1) Race11Ā #3 Wakanaka (5-1) #4 Sweet Enough (20-1) #6 Queen Goddess (9/2) #9 Shantisarra (9/5) Race 12Ā #3 Atone (12-1) #4 Hurricane Dream (15-1) #6 Lady Speightspeare (6-1) #10 Ivar (5-2) Race 13 #4 White Abarrio (10-1) # #8 Get Her Number (15-1) #10 Cyberknife (5-2) #5 DEFUNDED (6-1)Ā Thanks for the input so far . changesĀ Out R Adios Jersey Ā Ā Ā In Fire On Time Out Art Collector Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā In DefundedĀ Quite happy with this ticket. Good luck to us !!
|
|
|
Post by merasmag on Jan 28, 2023 17:55:34 GMT -5
Race 8 #1 Famed (5-1) #2 Miss Speedy (20-1) #4 Obligatory (7/5) #7 Maryquitecontrary (5-1) #10 R Adios Jersey (8-1) Race 9 #3 Pao Alto (8-1) #4 Abaan (5-1) #7 Channel Maker (3-1) #10 Reigning Spirit (20-1) #11 Red Knight (9/2) Race 10 #1 Miles D (3-1) #4 Octane (20-1) #6 Black Belt (5-1) #9 Endorsed (5-1) Race11 #3 Wakanaka (5-1) #4 Sweet Enough (20-1) #6 Queen Goddess (9/2) #9 Shantisarra (9/5) Race 12 #3 Atone (12-1) #4 Hurricane Dream (15-1) #6 Lady Speightspeare (6-1) #10 Ivar (5-2) Race 13 #4 White Abarrio (10-1) #6 Art Collector (10-1) #8 Get Her Number (15-1) #10 Cyberknife (5-2) Whoops! hope you had a winner bev!
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on Jan 28, 2023 17:57:47 GMT -5
My superfecta LS will be Last Samarai. I have always loved him and he's a 9F specialist. Well I was right about one thing at least. Cherokee nail it with Art Collector. Wow!!
|
|
|
Post by bitowisdom on Jan 29, 2023 11:04:16 GMT -5
Mike Smith ("Money Mike") is not flying all the way across the country to not win. This jockey at those prices... just sayin'. Not really my place to say, but going to anyhow. Mike Smith is a rider. Mike Smith was paid, no doubt, handsomely for his appearance. I never wager on a Jockey. You wager on The ability of the Competing Equine. Betting on Jockeys is a proven road to the poor house. Just saying. I recall the Breeder's Cup and how outside influence from the crowd as opposed to the committee was nil. Initial ticket just goes to show you. NEVER CHANGE YOUR MIND!!. JMHO. Sorry if I ruffle feathers here.
|
|
|
Post by bitowisdom on Jan 29, 2023 11:12:36 GMT -5
Hindsight? Usually brings tears to your eyes. Better to leave it be as history. Another thing we never really learn from, History.
|
|
eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,732
|
Post by eye123 on Jan 29, 2023 11:22:26 GMT -5
The woulda,coulda,shoulda road does no good. It is what it is. Can second guess forever, and for what purpose ? If you're not joining for the fun and friendship then maybe it's not for you. (joint pools) Nice handicapping by everyone. I had fun, and think most others did also. Just a matter of time when everything clicks.
|
|
|
Post by spiderjohn on Jan 29, 2023 11:45:07 GMT -5
I could have definitely had a little more fun....
No quitter here on to the glory today!!
p6 2-4-6-9/3-5/3/1-2-6/1-6/1-2-4-6-8-9-10 =$67.20
|
|