DISCUSSION: Finding Long-Shots!

[Badactor]

Jun 21, 2024 13:29:39 GMT -5 partsnut said:

Long-shot methods would be something that I would love to discuss

Great topic...
I look forward to reading what our UpInClass Players have to share.

[Deleted]

i guess that this will be "that thread" then

[mysaladdays]

I will contribute my thoughts later in the week. Too busy this weekend.

[damascus]

Sometimes its ok to spread......



Jun 15 5:53:37 PM Complete Hawthorne 8 Trifecta $0.50 3,6,10/1-7,9,10/1-7,9,10 $84.00
paid $1,371.95
profit/loss $1,287.95

Track/Race
Hawthorne
Race 8
Bet Type
Trifecta
Runners
3, 6, 10 / 1 - 7, 9, 10 / 1 - 7, 9, 10
Date
June 15, 2024


in all honesty #3 was in no way my top selection. i threw him in as a flyer. Paid $153 to win. in retrospect i am thinking it was a little light on the payoff as 4-5 fave finished out of the money!


3 Lady Atlantic Rishawn Blanche 153.80 50.40 18.40

7 Suporb Luis H. Colon 12.40 7.40

9 Timeless Glory Rachel Slevinsky 6.20

[vagrant]

One way to find good prices is to ignore a horse’s last race. E.g., Fierceness aside, Mystik Dan owned the best Beyer and TG fig in the race … from the Southwest, which sharpies wrote off as a slop-enabled fluke after he was a well-beaten 3rd in the Ark. Derby.

Shopping for longshots is like shopping for used cars. To get a good price, you have to look past some dings and scratches. Too many players overlook dents and gouges grasping for 40-1 shots. And too many pay top dollar for fancy brands and flashy looks, ignoring mechanical issues like paddling and bit-spitting.

We need to shop more often in the middle. At 4-1, Dan’s Ark. Derby is a glaring flaw. At 17-1, it’s a forgivable bounce off a a big fig — a fig that very much fits with those by horses offered at 5-2 and 3-1.

[vagrant]

Shoulda said ignore the last race if it was bad, especially with younger horses. Smart Belmont shoppers saw 18-1 and decided that Dornoch’s last two duds were excusable dents & scratches. 

The proper play — and I suspect the CAWs do this — is to bet the price instead of the horse. We railbirds tend to get overly attached to a horse and ignore his low price, or get overly dismissive and ignore that 17-1 (i.e., 5.5% chance to win) doesn’t reflect the fact the horse is, according to Hoyle, the second-fastest critter in the field.

It’s not all about speed figures. Some folks here might remember the Lemon Drop Kid saga from the old Blood-Horse board. LSS, a few sharpies doped out and linked together certain facts — trainer intent, excellent breeding, improving form — and scored like Wilt at Hershey at 30-1.

Note that LDK’s figs were reasonably competitive and improving. He had showed enough raw talent to make his backstory relevant.

There’s a bottomless supply of these tales. Like Charlie Whittingham showing up in 1986 for his first Kentucky in decades. Ferdinand paid 18-1. Charlie and Shoe each bet $100k to win. The crowd was on Mister Frisky or some such.

Arcangues. 133-1 on an occasionally top-class animal dragged from France to SoCal by the great Andre Fabre, who did not ship 5,000 miles bc he thought he had 0.7% chance to win. In fact, AFTER the race he said, “When this horse is right, he’s as good as any in the world.”

I know, I know. Everything is 20-20 in hindsight. But thinking this way is how you find viable longshots. 



 

[damascus]

I was thinking Dornoch was like Louis Quatorze in ther preakness after running up the track at Churchill. Of course i put it together only after the race....

[propro]

Jun 22, 2024 11:39:21 GMT -5 damascus said:

Sometimes its ok to spread......



Jun 15 5:53:37 PM Complete Hawthorne 8 Trifecta $0.50 3,6,10/1-7,9,10/1-7,9,10 $84.00
paid $1,371.95
profit/loss $1,287.95

Track/Race
Hawthorne
Race 8
Bet Type
Trifecta
Runners
3, 6, 10 / 1 - 7, 9, 10 / 1 - 7, 9, 10
Date
June 15, 2024


in all honesty #3 was in no way my top selection. i threw him in as a flyer. Paid $153 to win. in retrospect i am thinking it was a little light on the payoff as 4-5 fave finished out of the money!


3 Lady Atlantic Rishawn Blanche 153.80 50.40 18.40

7 Suporb Luis H. Colon 12.40 7.40

9 Timeless Glory Rachel Slevinsky 6.20

$30,547 in the pool, 25% takeout means there was between $8 and $9 bet on that winning combination.  Not much you can do about that payout except enjoy the spoils.  Nice one.

[partsnut]

Jun 21, 2024 13:47:58 GMT -5 Badactor said:

Jun 21, 2024 13:29:39 GMT -5 partsnut said:

Long-shot methods would be something that I would love to discuss

Great topic...
I look forward to reading what our UpInClass Players have to share.

Value and/or long-shot play is of great interest to me.

I would be curious see input from those members that are willing to share. Are they using software?  Which products they are using and consider to be the best".

Are there those that are using mechanical plays(angles) and what they consider to be the most prolific and consistent long-shot angles.

As well, input would be welcomed from those that are using data services in their quest for the elusive long-shot or value play?

Please note: it is not my intent to advertise any given product or violate and rules this board may have. Any mentioning of products whether they are considered by the poster

to be good, bad or otherwise is merely their opinion and should be interpreted as such.

[thebobtailnag]

This is a horse that I would bet

Belmont R7. Devils Cay 10/1 6F, Turf

Claimed by a new trainer (Tom Morley) last out who put in a turf race and it was his first turf start. He has usually been a type that likes to get out early but last out he was last out of the gate - could have been intentional but I who knows. He closed well and finished 4th two lengths back. The trainer wins at a 20% rate. BRIS has him #2 on their Prime Power line for this race. If Morley is successful he'll pay a nice price.

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 9:55:22 GMT -5 partsnut said:

Jun 21, 2024 13:47:58 GMT -5 Badactor said:

Great topic...
I look forward to reading what our UpInClass Players have to share.

Value and/or long-shot play is of great interest to me.

I would be curious see input from those members that are willing to share. Are they using software?  Which products they are using and consider to be the best".

Are there those that are using mechanical plays(angles) and what they consider to be the most prolific and consistent long-shot angles.

As well, input would be welcomed from those that are using data services in their quest for the elusive long-shot or value play?

Please note: it is not my intent to advertise any given product or violate and rules this board may have. Any mentioning of products whether they are considered by the poster

to be good, bad or otherwise is merely their opinion and should be interpreted as such.

i thought that was what you meant 
more than "longshots for dummies"
type methods. i went down a rabbit hole
around preakness time reading about
a guy that over years/decades "perfected"
his own code which began out of 
card-counting in vegas. 
u may have thrown me down it.
i'm too poor to invest in any method
that relies on penny profits

[partsnut]

CDX R-6 Is a race of interest for me.

My odds line indicates a hugh overlay on this 2nd lifetime starter.

The horse exhibited early speed in his first outing and then faded.

The trainer does well with maidens.

I would be looking for at least 8-1 odds at the gate.

[partsnut]

merasmag:"i'm too poor to invest in any method

that relies on penny profits"

Penny profits are better then no profit.

[5wide]

The odds are a bit secondary to me. Using angles that have worked for me is what I look for.  The price then determines whether or how you play the horse.

[longshot]

I have a system that I like to use in Maiden races where the horse has had no more than two races lifetime.
You don't find many but when you do the win percent is high and the payoffs are nice. At the just concluded Fair Ground meet I played 19 horses
and 9 won and another 5 ran second. They paid between $11 and $76. The $11 winner had a 24/1 also qualifier that ran second in the race.It was
the only time I have ever found two in a race. It was the last leg of the Pick-4 so you know who I was wanting to win.

I call it an Even Race. I like the running position to stay the same or only have a difference of one in one of the running positions.
For beaten lengths I again don't like to see more than one full length change. I also want them never to be better than fifth at any time.

For other than Maiden I use an EquiSim FV that I have written that Spots possible longshots.

[partsnut]

Jun 24, 2024 11:07:33 GMT -5 longshot said:

I have a system that I like to use in Maiden races where the horse has had no more than two races lifetime.
You don't find many but when you do the win percent is high and the payoffs are nice. At the just concluded Fair Ground meet I played 19 horses
and 9 won and another 5 ran second. They paid between $11 and $76. The $11 winner had a 24/1 also qualifier that ran second in the race.It was
the only time I have ever found two in a race. It was the last leg of the Pick-4 so you know who I was wanting to win.

I call it an Even Race. I like the running position to stay the same or only have a difference of one in one of the running positions.
For beaten lengths I again don't like to see more than one full length change. I also want them never to be better than fifth at any time.

For other than Maiden I use an EquiSim FV that I have written that Spots possible longshots.

I'm assuming this is my friend Keith.

That seems like an excellent angle.

I like your Equisim FV.

Thanks for sharing.

[partsnut]

longshot:

I have a system that I like to use in Maiden races where the horse has had no more than two races lifetime.
You don't find many but when you do the win percent is high and the payoffs are nice. At the just concluded Fair Ground meet I played 19 horses
and 9 won and another 5 ran second. They paid between $11 and $76. The $11 winner had a 24/1 also qualifier that ran second in the race.It was
the only time I have ever found two in a race. It was the last leg of the Pick-4 so you know who I was wanting to win.

I call it an Even Race. I like the running position to stay the same or only have a difference of one in one of the running positions.
For beaten lengths I again don't like to see more than one full length change. I also want them never to be better than fifth at any time.

Would this horse be considered playable with this angle?

[eye123]

longshot angle: Maiden second time around two turns who showed speed (on the lead to the half,3/4 then fades out of the money first try) They seem to carry that speed better second try. (usually at a price)

[docd]

Sometimes you just find them.I don't necessarily look for them,they just pop out.As an example. The race in question that Parts Nuts horse is in,
Ind 7th MSW 3yo F   1M T. I selected a horse in the 4th at B@A  on 6/23 Leading Roll.A FTS going 6 on the turf.One reason I bet him was he's a full to Red Carpet Ready.Things didn't go well and the race was basically lost at the start .#2 Bougie Not Basic 12/1 is a full to Leading Roll ipso facto Red Carpet Ready.I'll ride this hunch again today

GL

.

[Deleted]

this should be interesting
i have money to burn
my offer of lunch
was spurned-YAY!


www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=IND&race=7&param1=1950&param2=3276&param3=1034264

[Deleted]

better than spending it on
overpriced hotdogs

Bet Type Selection Bet Total
EKBKYBX
2
3,5-11
$16.00
EKBKYBX
9
3,5-8,10,11
$14.00
PL
9
$10.00
WN
2,9
$10.00
WP
2
$10.00

[Deleted]

oh well
so much
4 youse'es
methods

[Deleted]

partsnut pls
pm me at your convenience
i'll be out in the am

[partsnut]

Please feel free to email me:

[e-mail]

[mysaladdays]

I would love to see one of our future contests based on $ / bankroll amassed, rather than win/place/show. The latter often requires players to "find the best winner" which often turns out to be chalk, rather than find the value horse who actually does manage to pull off the win.

I just find no motivation to identify chalky horses in a contest unless it is an exotics contest and i can mix with other selections.

It also would allow players to "brush up" on their longshot strategies and put them to work.....practice makes perfect.

I would also probably allow players to use whatever track they wish. Many of us only play certain tracks that may not be popular here or tracks that have large fields, etc.

Longshot by definition may be different for everyone, depending on the makeup of a field, but for me it only includes horses 8-1 ML odds or higher.

[damascus]

I like to follow some under the radar jocks.  Case in point Kelsi Harr and or Kylee Jordan.  i had seen both ride at Oaklawn but now they are also riding at smaller tracks which is where i like them even better.  Harr reminds me of Eddie Delahousaye as she is very good getting horses to run at the end.  She just brought home a $100 winner yesterday at Canterbury, sorry i didnt get that one.  

They dont have high win percentages but a lot of their nonwinners come from races goiung againts the top jocks and due to their not getting the top horses to ride.

Dam

[Badactor]

It takes a particular mindset...
an ability to go 0-fer without flinching.
It's a different way of playing the game.
More than luck, it requires strong handicapping
and commitment to tossing ALL low odds from consideration.

Longshots: You can't hit'em if you don't play'em!

[mysaladdays]

Jun 30, 2024 11:46:45 GMT -5 damascus said:

I like to follow some under the radar jocks.  Case in point Kelsi Harr and or Kylee Jordan.  i had seen both ride at Oaklawn but now they are also riding at smaller tracks which is where i like them even better.  Harr reminds me of Eddie Delahousaye as she is very good getting horses to run at the end.  She just brought home a $100 winner yesterday at Canterbury, sorry i didnt get that one.  

They dont have high win percentages but a lot of their nonwinners come from races goiung againts the top jocks and due to their not getting the top horses to ride.

Dam

Same.  I have won a ton of $ at OP on them and also on certain other rider/jockey combos that when see 'em I play 'em. 

I must be old fashioned, I do all my capping by hand with the card and a cup of coffee in front of me.  And I make sure I can't see the odds.  Or I get the early PPs that don't have odds yet.   That way I am not influenced by the odds.  If the horse(s) I like turn out to be longshots, then all the better. 

For whatever reason I don't trust software to find my horses.   I like the mental workout at my age anyway.  

[mysaladdays]

Also wanted to add, I don't consider "longshots" to be high odds horses.

My largest wins ever were horses who started out at lower odds but went to 40-1 or 63-1 or 75-1 at post. For whatever reason, perhaps due to something before the race, etc. bettors just "get off them", or there is a false favorite in the race (a good place to look). 

Longshots to me, are just horses whose odds are higher than they should be.  

In U.S. racing, playing 20-1 and 30-1 horses aren't actually what I consider good longshot plays (unless in foreign races in huge 12+ fields)  as quite often, their M/L really does reflect their chances.

I play in LS contests all the time where someone has been trying to beat me, using 20-1 horses, and they don't succeed. That's because I went with the 8-1 horse who ended up going to post at 28-1, etc.

[Deleted]

? if a horse goes from 8-1 to 28-1 it did, by "definition", go off as a long-shot
when you say "Longshots to me, are just horses whose odds are higher than they should be"
i think you are trying to make plain ole handicapping
fit into a discussion on longshots
just my 2 cents