Belmont rundown

[vagrant]

With apologies to the late great Larry LaTour …


1. Seize the Grey -- Love him or hate him, he did not get an “easy lead” in the Preakness. Timeform and BRIS both say the pace was very fast. STG just outran everybody – early, middle and late. Slop never hurts a frontrunner, but that was not a fluky win. Lukas says he’s doing better now than he was before the Preakness. Looks to me like he’s added weight. I see no reason why he can’t wire this field too. Dornoch isn’t quick enough to head STG, and Mindframe has no reason or inclination to mix it up early. STG saves all the ground, stays the trip and wins at a plump price around 7-1.


2. Resilience -- Official wiseguy horse of Belmont 156. God knows why. When a HoF trainer’s first reaction to his colt’s Derby run is to declare that 10 f. is too far, that’s an alarm bell that can’t be unrung by a few nice works. He’ll be backpedaling at the 1/8 pole again on Saturday.


3. Mystik Dan -- Poor horse makes Rodney Dangerfield look well-respected. All he does is show up and hit the board. I’m using him underneath, thinking he’ll do it again Saturday after earning himself yet another great trip. Others have more upside, imo, but this little colt is all class.


4. The Wine Steward -- Here we go again. Mike Maker wanted to run in the Ohio Derby. What changed his mind? Was it The Steward’s scintillating 5 f. work in 1:02 3/5 last Saturday? Or the whims of Paradise Farms Corp and Staudacher David? The Steward is a game rascal but his legs aren’t as stout as his heart. He’s lost ground in the stretch of every route race he’s ever run. The Woody Stephens is no picnic but 7 f. fits this horse a lot better than 10 f. Maker and Mott can commiserate when their colts come clopping belatedly home.


5. Antiquarian -- TAP’s superb Belmont record is the only thing stopping me from tossing this critter. Strikes me as a decent G2/G3 type: Too slow to win but could grind his way to a “minor award.”


6. Dornoch -- It’s been 6 months since his signature win in the Remsen and he hasn’t improved one iota. He’s got some excuses but it just feels like he hasn’t trained on. I predict he chases STG to exhaustion and finishes last.


7. Protective --Using liberally underneath. “The best maiden in the country” will be twice the price as Antiquarian, who only beat him 2 lengths and watch the reply. The Wine Steward cuts him off leaving the 1/8 pole, forcing Protective to check lightly and swing outside for running room. He did a nice job persevering to the finish. I was a big fan of Medaglia d’Oro and Empire Maker, who own 1.99 Belmont wins between them (albeit at 12 f.). Gafflione will be riding with a vengeance. I could see him pushing off Sierra Leone to secure 2nd.


8. Honor Marie -- Never have understood the hubbub about this horse, but I hope he runs well. His trainer is a good dude.


9. Sierra Leone -- I’ve bloviated aplenty about this beautiful beast on other threads, so I’ll focus on betting strategy and give Bev a laugh: Not using in 1st, lightly in 2nd, heavily in 3rd and 4th.


10. Mindframe -- I used to bite hard on these wunderkinds but they broke my teeth more often than not. If this scrapper is good enough to win a 10 f. G1 in his 3rd start, fine. I’ll beg Bev for a loan and bow to the new young king.


Cold Super Hi-5. Go to the windows.

Seize the Grey

Protective

Mystik Dan

Sierra Leone

Honor Marie

[vagrant]

P.S.: I left out a big reason re: why I'm so high on Seize the Grey -- the good Arrogates are really, really good. I think this'n has a lot of daddy in him.

[1hooper]

I can use Resilience underneath on a few tickets but I think he'll be better on the turf later this year and next.
He does have Belmont winner Caveat in his female family.

[Badactor]

Enjoyable read... it's really nice having you on the forum!

[vagrant]

Muchas gracias, Dell. Good to be here.

[ozzy]

Sure miss Larry’s “GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION“, but an ”amateur” writer’s attempt isn’t a half bad read…. Great to see you back posting for sure.

[Deleted]

your write-up
is better
than the
race
will be

[mysaladdays]

nice write up!  And a good ticket, if it comes in for you, mega bucks!  Bst of luck. 


I was surprised to see your love for Protective when it sounded like you were talking me off him when I liked him based pedigree in my rundown the other day and was including him in my exacta box.  But I assume you were just saying he wouldn't win, and I was not singling him for that anyway. 
Meanwhile, I LOVE that others are considering him.  So many players are saying toss the maiden, who ran 3¾ lengths behind Resilience in the Wood.  I haven't even run into anyone besides you and me who like him in an exacta, actually.  

upinclass.proboards.com/post/90273

Because this year I don't have stats for a Belmont at SAR at 10F I decided to use a box instead of a straight w/p/s format.  Just not enough angles for 3 year olds in June at this course.  

I sure do agree with you about Mindframe and The Wine Steward though.  My pedigree friend who pores over linebreedings told me that no horse who had Nathalma on their 8 generation female linebreeding chart has ever won the Belmont.  Of course, this isn't 12F but 10F so you just never know.   These ped heads go far beyond just looking at sires and dams and keep records on linebreeding percentages and were the ones who taught me horse racing when I knew nothing, so I found it fascinating and only reason I am in the sport at all. 


I think many share your thoughts about Mott's transparency about his horse and 10F.   I never know what to do with "trainer speak"......all these other trainers think their horses CAN get 10F, both here and in the KY Derby.   Then..........they run 14th etc.   

I don't think they really know for sure, do you?   I am always interested about what others think about this phenomena.   more like a poker game where they fake each other out sometimes. 


I have concerns about my own ticket, as I am thinking I need to lose one of the horses I listed, IF I decide to extend out to playing a trifecta, and include a one that has a late foaling date, like May. Those sometimes jump up this time of year.   (That would be Antiquarian, Mindframe or Honor Marie.)    I will think this over in next 2 days.  If anyone has thoughts about that.   Help me think out loud. 

[cindyloujazz]

Great job vagrant! I do think either STG or MD win. They are in all 3 slots of my tri, in 2nd and 3rd, I have Antiquarian, Dornoch, Protective, Honor Marie and begrudgingly Sierra Leone.
Good luck to all!