Post by mysaladdays on May 27, 2024 13:11:15 GMT -5
Shaping up to be a field of stellar pedigrees, with great odds on longshots. (Even the names are regal...how can you be named The Euphrates or City of Troy and not lift a hoof?)
Plus Mansoori plans to supplement his 100-1 (- ish) Tabletalk for a mere £75,000. His sire won the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Irish Derby in 2012' so there's that.
Guess we will know by thursday who is in or out, and if the course will be dry or wet
Potentials: Ambiente Friendly Ancient Wisdom Bellum Justum City Of Troy Dallas Star Dancing Gemini Defiance Deira Mile Diego Velazquez Euphoric God’s Window Illinois Kamboo Los Angeles Macduff Mr Hampstead Padesha Portland Sayedaty Sadaty The Euphrates Voyage
Last Edit: Jun 1, 2024 7:18:10 GMT -5 by tenfurlongs
From what I have heard(and watching the work above), expect CITY OF TROY to rebound seriously tomorrow. Maybe a repeat of AUGUSTE RODIN's return last year?
Golden West and Portsmouth have won here, Prepschool has a second over the course. #2- Persica (9-2) ran third third to Notable Speech (subsequent 2000 Guineas winner) over the AW on seasonal debut, then was an even fourth in the London Gold Cup Hcp two weeks ago. Should appreciate the drying ground, may be sent forward from PP11. #3- Golden West (10-1) won his first two starts including a 8.5F race here in October. Didn't show much when thrown into GIII-stakes twice, now drops back into a handicap for the first time, may also be sent from PP12.
#4- Royal Dress (8-1) is an improving 4yo filly, won seasonal reappearance in Listed event at Goodwood, hold-up type gets blinkers today, might appreciate softer but has run okay on good. #5- Running Lion (9-5) won the Pretty Polly S. (Listed) as a 3yo, ran second in a GII on first run back at Newmarket. Gosden barn suddenly firing, as they said all their runners would need a run this season after a tough winter to train properly (wet.)
#2- Embesto (7-2) was a progressive 3yo, ran well in two starts against elders, solid enough race last time behind Ottoman Fleet at Newmarket. Will enjoy drying conditions.
Really like #9- Looking For Lynda (6-1) under new rider Hollie Doyle. Improving 4yo has been bang-there in last three runs, in with a feather today. Stuck out on a wing in PP1 on the straight 'Dash' course, just needs her gate to open at the same time as the rest. #2- Democracy Dilemma (6-1) is a consistent runner at this level, like to get on with it up front, sprint guru Robert Cowell gets Rossa Ryan to do the steering.
WIN- 9 EX- 2,9/1,2,3,5,7,9
EPS R6 (11:30am ET)- 1m4f (1m4f6y) Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)
Either you believe that City Of Troy lost his race in the stalls last time and 3-1 represents great value today, or you worry that he hasn't trained on as a 3yo and Justify isn't a proven 12F sire. There are eight horses in here that have run races that could win this with a repeat performance, and the rest have to move up today. #1- Ambiente Friendly (6-1) beat a good group in the Derby Trial at Lingfield last time over a similarly undulating, bendy track, seemed to appreciate the added distance that day. Shame that Callum Shepherd got jocked-off (easy now) and replaced by veteran Rab Havlin, but won't be the last time either. PP6 is helpful for whatever tactics they have in mind. Derby winner hiding in plain sight? #6- Dancing Gemini (10-1) was a quality 2yo with a Listed win, really turned it up on seasonal debut when a fast-closing second in the French 2000 Guineas. Wide draw in PP15 will be a challenge for young Dylan Browne McMonagle. Son of Camelot out of an Australia mare should love the stretchout today.
Longshot play will be #14- Sayedaty Sadaty (50-1) rapid improver for Andrew Balding will likely have to go forward from PP2 under Tom Marquand, should also appreciate the added distance, handled this track with a good third behind Golden West (Race 1) in tactically-run race.
Will not be surprised if City Of Troy wins by daylight, will dust myself off and move on.
Low confidence race, hoping that #3- If Not Now (8-1) can recover the form he showed in his first three starts, tough-trip third on 4yo debut. #8- Flash Bardot (15-1) would ideally want it softer, but won a 2-miler here on good ground last summer. Improving sort moves up in class today, but is favorably weighted, could surprise.
I've followed #3- Apollo One (7-1) for a few seasons now, consistent runner is tough to win with but always battles, was second in this last year when 5lbs lower.
QUI- 3/1,7,12
Good luck if you play, and you really should!
TW
Last Edit: Jun 1, 2024 6:40:28 GMT -5 by tenfurlongs
“Never allow someone to be your priority while allowing yourself to be their option.” ― Mark Twain
Some of my original picks scratched so scrambling to replace them. (woke up late!)
The Betfred Derby: I like 4 in here and 1 crazy bomber:
If City of Troy is anything even close to what he was as a 2 year old, he could probably put most of these horses into a backpack and carry them across the finish line, along with himself. Ancient Wisdom consistently runs ITM and I think can handle both soft and drying out track. Bellum Justum - pedigree looks like he he'll have no problem with the distance. Voyage -Sire Golden Horn(GB) was trained by Gosden and won just about every Classic race there is to win at the age 3 from 10F to 12F, including the Epsom Derby and the 'Arc de Triomphe. I remember he was my bet in the BC Turf even though going off as the favorite, but he ran 2nd. Also like the distaff side of the pedigree.
Longshot bomb: To my surprise there was a U.S. bred horse in this race, Mr. Hampstead. could be any kind but being brother of Savethelastdancece, I might have to take a shot at what will probably be 100-1 odds.
R4. Played the 2 Blue Points with highest odds. Luck.
Nice Hoop! Good to see young trainer, and former jockey, Gemma Tutty get another win on a big stage. She's very capable, she just needs good horses in her yard. Follow her.
TW
“Never allow someone to be your priority while allowing yourself to be their option.” ― Mark Twain
Everyone having a good 2 days! I remember hooper liking the Blue Points
Skipped the 4th and skipping the 5th Can redboard Royal Scotsman and that exacta also
City of Troy at maybe decent odds—-Appleby’s runner has good back form and despite the recent loss, his runners seem to be approaching very good form…..
Last Edit: Jun 1, 2024 9:33:34 GMT -5 by spiderjohn
$aver on Macduff, doubts about him at 12F but that female family has so much class it drew me in. Watching pre race closely. Team Valor owns half brother to Voyage, will debut soon, talented.
lol I was happy to get 9-5, but like hooper, I thought he had no shot at the corner. Moore kept his cool and found the hole at the right time. 1post was a concern.
As mentioned, how many nice Galileo mares does coolmore have?
Tri was very generous imo
Last Edit: Jun 1, 2024 10:51:06 GMT -5 by spiderjohn