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Post by UpInClass on May 20, 2024 20:48:43 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on May 21, 2024 13:03:38 GMT -5
According to Wikipedia..
52 horses have won two of the Triple Crown races:
23 the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
18 the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
11 the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.
13 horses have won all three races.
I would love to see the Kentucky Derby winner
take down the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga!
A Triple Crown record of first, second, first,
would be mighty respectable.
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
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Post by 1hooper on May 21, 2024 14:16:03 GMT -5
Great day of racing. Saturday, June 8 – Post time for the 14-race Belmont Stakes Day program is 10:45 a.m. Admission gates will open to the public at 9 a.m. Stakes Action: The day features three Breeders' Cup “Win And You're In” qualifiers: the $1-million GI Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan H. [Dirt Mile]; $500,000 GI Ogden Phipps [Distaff]; and the $500,000 GI Jaipur S. [Turf Sprint]. In addition, Belmont Stakes Day will include the $1-million Resorts World Casino GI Manhattan, and the $500,000 GI Woody Stephens,GII True North; the GII Suburban; and GIII Poker S. www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/post-times-for-the-belmont-stakes-festival-released/ |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 21, 2024 16:09:28 GMT -5
I would love to see the Kentucky Derby winner take down the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga! A Triple Crown record of first, second, first, would be mighty respectable. Mine That Bird got 1st, 2nd and 3rd in each TC race. And wasn't well thought of (by some). At least the way I remember it. (However, I think that was mostly people who resented that they lost a lot of $ on him) and he wasn't with a hallowed big name trainer. I was kind of hoping a UAE Derby horse would run in the Belmont, they often make a good account of themselves. I loved Lani! I have no idea about horses in BEL at 10F. If it was 10F when Smarty Jones ran, he would have won the TC. I revisited that race from start to finish this week with some friends, it was tough to do. Zito was really all class the way he handled the win is what I remember most. |
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Post by vagrant on May 21, 2024 16:19:14 GMT -5
>>>>A Triple Crown record of first, second, first, would be mighty respectable.
Thunder Gulch did it.
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 7,444
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Post by 1hooper on May 25, 2024 8:34:11 GMT -5
Trainer Chad Brown said that jockey Flavien Prat will ride Sierra Leone in the
Belmont Stakes at Saratoga June 8, replacing Tyler Gaffalione.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2024 18:20:14 GMT -5
too bad he'll
be 9-5
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 7,444
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Post by 1hooper on Jun 1, 2024 12:10:49 GMT -5
Mystik Dan with a very nice work this morning, toyed with black type work mate.
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,953
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Post by docd on Jun 1, 2024 12:36:15 GMT -5
Plenty of action this morning.The Belmont runners all looked well.Mott was mum on Resilience but I think his enthusiasm(horse) today may tilt go.
Big Blue was out in force today on the turf.All I can say is wow.It's a show worth the price.CB had some nice turf workers and they did." :48&4 you got to pick it up".I heard that a couple of times from Brown.
GL
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 2, 2024 3:13:47 GMT -5
Mott was mum on Resilience but I think his enthusiasm(horse) today may tilt go. Thanks for the update. Resilience is so much better than how ran in the ky derby, tons of reines-de-course in pedigree, those infuences may show up soon. I still like Dornoch a bit, too as well as Protective and Tuscan Gold. Cant wait til field is set. Will probably toss Mindframe and Wine Steward out of the WIN spot, but that's as far as ive gotten |
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
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Post by 1hooper on Jun 2, 2024 10:22:19 GMT -5
Looked good in the video of the gallop out I saw. Waiting for the full work video to surface soon.
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 7,444
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Post by 1hooper on Jun 2, 2024 13:12:12 GMT -5
Full video now up at xbtv.
Mott has to love that work, stakes placed 3yo work partner wanted no part of him in the gallop out.
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Post by UpInClass on Jun 3, 2024 16:28:19 GMT -5
1 Seize The Grey 8-1
2 Resilience 10-1
3 Mystik Dan 5-1
4 The Wine Steward 20-1
5 Antiquarian 12-1
6 Dornoch 15-1
7 Protective 20-1
8 Honor Marie 12-1
9 Sierra Leone 9/5
10 Mindframe 7/2
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Post by vagrant on Jun 4, 2024 12:15:02 GMT -5
I like Seize the Grey. All the hallmarks of a peaking spring 3YO. Should be able to grab the early lead again. He doesn't seem to scare anyone, so they might just let him go again.
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 4, 2024 12:31:27 GMT -5
I see both of the pletchers being legit contenders—-mindframe’s ml being on the low side……
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,647
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Post by 5wide on Jun 4, 2024 16:19:47 GMT -5
Ex 1,2,6/1,2,3,6,8,9 Tri 1,2,6/1,2,3,8,9/1,2,3,8,9
I'm looking for a score, not just a winning ticket. Dornoch to make an easy lead , followed by STG. Hopefully one of them will kick on, if not Resilence should have a nice trip . Totally fading Mindframe.
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Post by vagrant on Jun 5, 2024 6:22:44 GMT -5
Mindframe reminds me of Money Moves, who finished 13th for TAP in the 2020 Derby at an underlaid 13-1. He had three starts, no stakes experience and one big fig.
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 5, 2024 8:09:31 GMT -5
I get it—-and hope that all of you keep thinking that way + the ml is discouraging.
I have watched mindframe’s works prior to his first start and his races—he has towered over all comers throughout. He did work fierceness off of the Belmont trail. He may be the best 3yo imo—we will find out soon.
The other Pletcher seems to be maturing in to his best form and is an attractive 12-1 ml, though morning lines have become a joke pretty much everywhere.
Outside of Sierra Leone, I can’t get behind any of the others—maybe he gets his off track Saturday .
Don’t be a slave to speed figures—trust your eyes…..
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,647
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Post by 5wide on Jun 5, 2024 8:55:33 GMT -5
I get it—-and hope that all of you keep thinking that way + the ml is discouraging. I have watched mindframe’s works prior to his first start and his races—he has towered over all comers throughout. He did work fierceness off of the Belmont trail. He may be the best 3yo imo—we will find out soon. The other Pletcher seems to be maturing in to his best form and is an attractive 12-1 ml, though morning lines have become a joke pretty much everywhere. Outside of Sierra Leone, I can’t get behind any of the others—maybe he gets his off track Saturday . Don’t be a slave to speed figures—trust your eyes….. I'm quite happy to get beaten by a freak, if that's the case. I just can't play him. |
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jun 5, 2024 9:30:15 GMT -5
Full video now up at xbtv. Mott has to love that work, stakes placed 3yo work partner wanted no part of him in the gallop out. A+ work on XBTV..... Touchy (Ward) on May 31st.....exercise rider had his work, horse wanted a lot more...... |
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turffan
UpInClass Member
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Post by turffan on Jun 5, 2024 10:05:43 GMT -5
I like Seize the Grey. All the hallmarks of a peaking spring 3YO. Should be able to grab the early lead again. He doesn't seem to scare anyone, so they might just let him go again. I agree. The more I look at the past performances the less I want to leave him out especially at what should be a decent price. |
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Post by vagrant on Jun 5, 2024 17:25:19 GMT -5
If Mindframe wins a 10 f. G1 in his third start … nah. Not gonna happen.
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Post by Badactor on Jun 5, 2024 20:33:02 GMT -5
>>>>A Triple Crown record of first, second, first, would be mighty respectable. Thunder Gulch did it. !995 REDUX Sincerely,
Mystik Dell |
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Jun 6, 2024 16:43:24 GMT -5
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propro
UpInClass Member
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Post by propro on Jun 7, 2024 15:22:47 GMT -5
This race looks way too simple. Seize The Grey gets an easy lead. Mystik Dan tries to catch him in the stretch but can't. Sierra Leone runs by Dan for second. While the forecast isn't as ominous as it was earlier in the week, I'm still doing a rain dance.
1-9-3. It's by far my heaviest play.
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Post by vagrant on Jun 7, 2024 17:07:51 GMT -5
Smart play. No fishing for a price. Just a solid take on how the how the race could be run. Those are the three fastest and classiest animals I’m the race. All appear to be thriving.
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Post by vagrant on Jun 7, 2024 18:07:55 GMT -5
Surely it’s Myracehorse money that squashed Seize the Grey from 8-1:ML to 7-2 RL (real life).
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 8, 2024 7:57:39 GMT -5
I see Dornoch applying enough early pressure to do in the dwl runner—both get passed late(and maybe early)…
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,647
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Post by 5wide on Jun 8, 2024 8:27:14 GMT -5
Ex 1,2,6/1,2,3,6,8,9 Tri 1,2,6/1,2,3,8,9/1,2,3,8,9
I'm looking for a score, not just a winning ticket. Dornoch to make an easy lead , followed by STG. Hopefully one of them will kick on, if not Resilence should have a nice trip . Totally fading Mindframe.
modifying this ticket slightly mainly dropping Dornoch and adding The Wine Steward.
ex 1,2,4/1,2,3,4,8,9 tri -1,2,4/1,2,4,9/1,2,3,4,8,9
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 8, 2024 9:18:02 GMT -5
Todd Pletcher's record over last 5 years of 3 yo's going off Lasix into graded stakes debut races is absolutely dismal. Something like 0 for 22 or close to something like that. I can't back Mindframe to win this race. He's run on Lasix both times so far, now no lasix.
Of course, like most races, racing secretaries have to fill cards, and I'm not going to pretend that many horses in this race are fillers.
StG had a 12 point BSF leap in the Preakness. I don't believe he can replicate that particular figure here but if you believe he can do something close then go for it. He scores consistently well on a pedigree-only analysis.
Just for FUN, (NOT a real ticket!) I played around with scoring them just on pedigree, (ignoring track performance entirely), because I like to see how accurate pedigree analysis can be in finding runners. This exercise came up with Seize the Grey, Protective, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone as top scorers on about 20 different angles.. Will be interesting to see how that kind of analysis pans out for an exacta ticket.
When I subtracted some track performance angles like no wins at 3, etc. etc. I gave negative points for a few of those angles, and came up with these: Seize the Grey, Sierra Leone, Resilience, Antiquarian, Dornoch, Protective.
Again, I am aware that Mystik Dan has completely outrun his pedigree so his name would be missing here on a mostly pedigree based analysis, so beware. If I had to do a ticket strictly based on the original pedigree analysis, and added him to a ticket, it would look like this 5 horse boxed exotic: Seize the Grey, Protective, Dornoch, Sierra Leone, Mystik Dan. If I wanted to fade one of those to allow Resilience, then I would have to decide which of those 5 to fade to put him in.
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