Derby downer

[vagrant]

Apologies to Dell and Mystik Dan's other backers, but I was hoping that a special horse or special performance would make Derby 150 a special occasion. Didn't happen. Mystik Dan is an ordinary horse who ran an ordinary race. Props to Dan for seizing a golden opportunity -- rail trip, slow closers -- but I suspect he'll prove a pretty forgettable Derby winner. Him and his dreary 100 Beyer. 20,000 foals and that's the best spring 3YO America can produce? Not good. Japan might indeed start handing us our lunch fairly soon.

[cherokeescot]

I agree but he did save us from an absolute firestorm if Sierra Leone had nosed out Forever Young and stayed up !

[tex]

There should be more of a firestorm for him staying second and not being put third - forget the fact they never put up an inquiry. Really bad look to the Japanese sportsmen who came over to participate at great expense . They were not treated fairly or justly. Those that say it was only racing and it was back and forth are rationalizing. The margin was a head bob - not a length. Nobody wants a DQ but if that was the 3rd race they would have looked at it and probably change the order. Trying to make it go away and rationalize it just makes it look worse and sounds weak. I hope the Japanese continue to send their horses over and do not hold a grudge.

[1hooper]

I think this quote is about 4 years old. Plausible?


So why have speed figures in the Triple Crown series and the Kentucky Derby prep races been so low? I can offer a theory. For most of the Derby’s history, fitness and racing experience were essential for success on the first Saturday in May. Horses almost always had a solid foundation of experience as 2-year-olds. (Secretariat raced nine times at 2. Carry Back made an astonishing 21 starts as a juvenile before he went on to win the 1961 Derby.) Three-year-olds came into the Derby ultra-fit. Whirlaway ran in two major stakes in the nine days before the 1941 Derby—a common practice at the time.

In the modern era, of course, training styles have changed. Talented young horses are raced sparingly. They have short 2-year-old campaigns and may race only two or three times as 3-year-olds before the Derby. Their final prep race may be scheduled four or five weeks before the Derby (an unthinkable idea for old-time trainers). Justify was unraced at 2 and made only three starts prior to his sweep of the 2018 Triple Crown. He was a brilliant talent, but with so little experience he couldn’t have been expected to run as fast as great 3-year-olds of the past had done in the spring classics. That’s the reason his figures in the Triple Crown were so low—103, 97, 101.
–Andrew Beyer

[vagrant]

That's reasonable and likely in some respect true. But I think if you look back, Beyers in general -- and for spring 3YOs in particular -- dropped in 2009, when certain kinds of steroids were outlawed in the wake of Big Brown.

[mysaladdays]

May 6, 2024 14:56:40 GMT -5 vagrant said:

 Mystik Dan is an ordinary horse who ran an ordinary race. 

I could be down about this race,  as this was the closest I have come in a number of years to winning the Derby superfecta, since if you look I built my bets around Forever Young, Resilience, Catching Freedom, Dornoch and Sierra Leone.  Mystik Dan was missing. 



I disagree with you, as Mystik Dan isn't ordinary at all. He beat 20 horses in a race. 

1) If speed figures were so predictive then Fierecenss would have won.   I confidently left him off my ticket entirely.  There are many ways to cap a classic distance race but with horses trying to do something they've never done before,  it requires more than one approach, IMHO. 
So, classic distance races are not won by speed figures alone. (anymore).    (If that were true, Andy wouldn't have one of the most dreadful records for picking KY Derby winners.  His personal biases also hurt him, as during the BCC when he declared he was leaving Zenyatta completely off his ticket.  Despite that she won the 1st one, and ran 2nd in the 2nd BCC,  against the best males of her generation that year.    He took his synth grudge too far and it was precisely because it wasn't a surface he could handicap, plus I remember he didn't like her connections.)  Once I see personal biases creep in to an analysis I can never again take that person's thoughts as being sound.      


2) Breeding:   I have found ped head's approach refreshing from the standpoint that they are not trainer or jockey "worshippers".   They only look at the horses.   They're the only group in my travels who I know had both Mine That Bird (potent derby female family 23-b) and Rich Strike, for instance, posted publically on forums or in their analysis if they had a social media site.    The engine room of the mare side is  back in the 4th generation, which most traditional cappers don't tread.    While Goldencents didn't have a great classic pedigree, his mare side was not shabby.   .....the point is that it's another tool in the toolbox.  Bill Lathrop (Modern Conduit Mares), Tesio, etc. knew a lot about the female side and many of their theories are useful today. 

It certainly helped me toss Just a Touch off my ticket entirely.  Timeform had him in the tri.   If there was ANY horse in this race I literally thought would run last it was Just a Touch.  He failed every single pedigree angle I have in my aresenal.  Breeding is ultra important in the KY Derby and so are some specific things that horses must have.  I mostly used Bill Lathrop's theories on that one, since I went all the way back to Fu Peg.  His book is out of print now, but a pedigree query subscription will give you the tesio mare side numbers which are helpful if you know how to use the profiles.     

3) Kerry Thomas's idea that horses are individuals with very distinct emotional and psychological makeups is prescient and eye opening.  He doesn't  give you the winner , but doesn't claim to.  Unlike so many services who charge big bucks telling you they can deliver.  A perspicacious trainer who trains with those traits in mind, toward the goal of winning this specific race would be well advised to keep on doing so, i.e. what makes his horse "tick".   

4) I talked to 3 friends who had Mystic Dan.  And they did not pick him based on "possible wet track".  They have much more interesting observations having to do with his workout, training, and time off schedules.  If you look at those before the SW and before the AR Derby part of the answer lies there.  

5) The Derby is a chaos race, with horses trying to do something for the first time.  In the long run though, its all about the TRIP and nobody has a crystal ball to know for sure who will get that.   There is also a lot of luck involved.  

6) Mystik Dan  beat 20 horses in the KY Derby and the history books will reflect that. Not 1 or 2 or 12....but 20.   Connections also made a very generous donation to Thoroughbred Aftercare.   Win/win 


The only problem I had this year was that CD never even lighted the inquiry sign, and for that, I may not play the race again in coming years.  I can't get behind the way the stewards dealt with this.  The purse between 2nd and 3rd place was substantial enough to "matter." 

[mysaladdays]

May 6, 2024 17:24:42 GMT -5 tex said:

 I hope the Japanese continue to send their horses over and do not hold a grudge.

My take on them, besides being a gracious, humble,  and polite culture, is that they probably practice "good sportsmanship." 

Some qualities just go hand in hand.  

My roommate in New Haven was japanese.  She was always getting bulldozed and we had many conversations about how some Americans seem to mistake being humble for being "weak".   She had quite a number of truly unjust experiences with landlords and others ripping her off before we moved in together.  I assured her I did know the difference.  

My other best friend at the time who I managed a bookstore with in New Haven moved to Japan to teach English.  He begged me to come over, and had a position there for me....I didn't take it.  It is a regret I have, and I don't have many regrets in life at all.   I just think I would have been a bit more suited to some aspects of that culture, even in the way I eat and think.    But, he never came back to the U.S.   Married a japanese woman and had 1 child and is about to retire this year from teaching.     

[1hooper]

I really enjoyed the last two posts. Nice start to the day.

[vagrant]

Somebody has to win a 20-horse race, right? Does that alone make the winner exceptional? It does not. 150 horses have won the Kentucky Derby. Not all of them were exceptional.

As for the predictive power of speed figs, note that Mystik Dan owned the second-fast fig in the field -- Beyer and ThoroGraph. So maybe there's just a little predictive power there.

But I wasn't talking about a prediction. Mystik Dan earned a 100 Beyer. That's a fact. Actually, I was kind to the critter by calling him ordinary. 100 is below average for Derby winners -- i.e., sub-ordinary.

The predictive power of pedigree handicappers has been roughly nil for more than a quarter-century. They turned their blue noses up at Real Quiet, Charismatic, Fusaichi Pegasus, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, Super Saver, California Chrome, Maximum Security and Medina Spirit. They touted purple-bred slowpokes like Saarland and Tapit and Friesan Fire and ... the list is endless. Also penniless.

But there are a million ways to skin the handicapping cat. Or get skinned.  

[mysaladdays]

You are certainly right about a million ways to skin the handicapping cat. They left the rail open this year (dumb!) and Mystk Dan took that gift.

This year, like 2022, the "never (ever) lasixed" horses were the superfecta. That was $321K and close to $9K this year. People in my group won both, and are primarily pedigree cappers.

Your representation that they "get skinned" has not at all been my experience. Maybe you are talking about those who do a very shallow evaluation by just looking at sire and mare. The dedicated Pedigree cappers go much deeper than that.

As for turning noses up to the ones you mentioned, I really don't know where you got that. I've been on a group of ped cappers for 25+ years and all of the horses you mentioned were in their picks. Every single one. There are 2 people in my group have kept records of every combination of line breeding who won the Derby going back at least 30 years----meticulous records. They have pulled down the $94K+ superfecta type derby payouts more than once over the years. Those are the ones I learned from.

I am not just a speed figure capper because I don't make huge wagers, thus I would go home with empty pockets, since those horses ususally the Favorite/chalk. This is why I say over time, the speed figure players have never beat the game. It's a good short cut easiest way for weekend wearriors to cap a race w/out putting much effort thought or research into a race, and unless they are willing to go deep with an exotics wager tri or superfecta, they're going to win chalky payouts. Chalky payouts don't get you the bankroll you would need to stay in the game.

BTW, I even made a few posts about T O Password (because Master Fencer and Derma Sotogake), for the super high five players. Pedigree play.

Another interesting thing I've noticed is that while I haven't found the "final Q" or "final 3/8" figures to be utterly potent, I do find it very telling about which horses "have heart" though. The ones who run their hearts out seems to know where the finish line is.

[mysaladdays]

Another one I use (based entirely on pedigree) is "put the Tapit 4th". Works like a charm with Essential Quality, Tacitus, Mohaymen, Frosted, Normandy Invasion. And this year with Catching Freedom as the grandsire. Not using them as a key or even exacta has helped me.

[5wide]

I keep going back and forth between " That's racing " and " WTF ? No Enquiry ? "

I heard that to protest would not have been a good look back in Japan. Damn them and their politeness. Sometimes you have to fight for your right .

[vagrant]

>>>>They have pulled down the $94K+ superfecta type derby payouts more than once over the years.

That's extraordinary. I doubt they achieve such results by pedigree handicapping alone, but their study time was clearly a wise investment.

[Deleted]

i can't find your post
in the time i have
congrats on your oaklawn achievement
msd
100 a race over almost 600