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Post by mysaladdays on May 15, 2024 15:49:11 GMT -5
Its part of a game.
My theory: He ships the horses when they are sick (which isn't exactly kind to them) then scratches them once they are on the destination grounds. Muth "suddenly" catches a fever on a short flight from CA to MD, yeah sure).
Remember, since he did the EXACT SAME THING with Muth for the Hopeful Stakes. I am laughing at the carnival-like " sleight of hand" that is what keeps onlookers at carnivals from seeing how magicians put their auidences in awe.
Muth has been established into a monster, a figment of gambler's imaginations...first that scratch in the hopeful, then the lawsuit to run him in the KY Derby, now this scratch. It's almost too funny.
Put the name Muth into enough stories/myths, and you have esseentially put that name firmly into the public consciousness. Muth, we all await Muth. MUth, Muth, Muth. BUILD THE ANTICIPATION for MUTH.
One thing you can be sure of: after all the hype, he will eventually go to the breeders shed early, and earn 20x what they paid for him.
One has to wonder how much longer U.S. Racing, and some gamblers, will continue to be taken in like this.
Anyone who has taught creative writing or scriptwriting understands how to create a myth w/in a story. It
is a really good hook and drives the story forward......but has to have certain fundamentals, i.e. somewhat believable but much of it based on false logic, sort of like what the magicians do with their hands as well. .
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Preakness
May 15, 2024 17:30:43 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cherokeescot on May 15, 2024 17:30:43 GMT -5
And here was me thinking that Baffert was the only one with imagination .
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 15, 2024 17:56:50 GMT -5
And here was me thinking that Baffert was the only one with imagination . I'm going to call this an underrated comment. |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 15, 2024 18:46:14 GMT -5
And here was me thinking that Baffert was the only one with imagination . Be that as it may, people who repeat patterns are likely to....... repeat patterns.  I believe that is one of the reasons CD gave for not allowing Baffert into the KY Derby again this year. As a matter of fact, it was expressed pretty much exactly in those words in their answer as to why. Fool me once but can't fool me twice isn't "a saying" for no reason. Again, always open to intrepretation of course, but in my personal life, observing the repetitions of behavior has kept me from making the wrong decisions with the wrong people. Either that, or I am just lucky/blessed. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2024 21:19:33 GMT -5
per Bloodhorse, Mystik Dan's trainer, Kenny McPeek, commented..."I guess it puts added pressure on us..." he added.
I'll call this an understatement
I hope Muth finally makes it to
toga (i hate the "spa" nickname)
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Post by mysaladdays on May 16, 2024 1:37:35 GMT -5
per Bloodhorse, Mystik Dan's trainer, Kenny McPeek, commented..."I guess it puts added pressure on us..." he added. I'll call this an understatement It's interesting how differently everyone interprets statements. From my own perspective, Mystik Dan is wearing the blanket that says Winner of the 150th Kentucky Derby at the moment. A G1 race recognized by the entire world. I don't think McPeek leaped at the certainty of running him in the Preakness, as a knee jerk reaction, just because he won the KY Derby. I believe Mystik Dan is in the Preakness because he has checked all the boxes of McPeek's careful scrutiny. Mystik Dan running in the Preakness = good sportsmanship as well.... but sure, if he wins 2 legs of the TC, or even runs ITM, it certainly can't hurt. Ditto if he does the same in the Belmont Stakes. Both horse and trainer strike me as relaxed and not at all desperate. Right now I'd say regardless if what happens next, MD is sitting in the catbird seat, at the moment, in terms of stallion prospects. Others will have to prove their mettle in that respect going forward of course. (As an aside, I am not wagering this race, as in my attempt to create a value exotic, and the way I think this race might play out on a wet track, I would probably play in a manner that does not reflect what horses I would actually be rooting for.) |
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 16, 2024 6:04:23 GMT -5
Good luck to all on BES and Preakness days. I'm off to Georgia for family obligations (a high school graduation of a granddaughter and 40th birthday celebration of my stepson). Good chance I won't even see the race live, but will be monitoring the PGA all weekend.
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Post by vagrant on May 16, 2024 9:43:14 GMT -5
So Baffert ships expensive horses cross-country, then scratches them, just to mess with us? Just to be Lucy to our Charlie Brown? Makes zero sense. Has zero benefit to the horse, trainer, owner, jockey, groom, vet, railbird or beer vendor.
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Post by mysaladdays on May 17, 2024 4:15:10 GMT -5
So Baffert ships expensive horses cross-country, then scratches them, just to mess with us? Just to be Lucy to our Charlie Brown? Makes zero sense. Has zero benefit to the horse, trainer, owner, jockey, groom, vet, railbird or beer vendor. So who is this "us" you are speaking of? If you think it has anything to do with "us" (lowly gamblers/spectators/writers in the game) then you really are off the mark. As for making sense, Didnt Baffert ship Muth for the Hopeful, then decide once he got there, that he really wanted Muth to run at 2 turns, that the race was "too quick of a turnaround? (Direct quote from DRF). Seems like a very odd last minute decision ... to ship a horse round trip, across the country from CA---- and when you get there suddenly realize thr race is not 2 turns, and your horse would be back too quick? (Or, maybe, the "too quick" meant something else. Remind me again how many times Gamine pulled a positive?) By the way, I noticed that you had some pretty damning words for the Japanese horses before the race, (they were uncompetitive and then after the race they would hand us our lunch someday)......and ditto, for the winner of the KY Derby. So very many "sub-ordinary" horses, in your humble opinion, (you barely stopped short of call ing them "tomato cans") but meanwhile, your posts read like you're a 70s style speed figure guy..... in 2024. All the while not putting yourself out there and telling us who your picks were. I put mine out there. And I welcome disagreement, (but served with a side of sarcasm isn't really necessary). I said I was not using Fierceness or Honor Marie on my ticket. I said weeks before (way before his stablemate ran 2nd on that Friday) that TO Password would beat 60% of the horses in the race (I was wrong about that, he beat 75% of the horses in the race). Had I listened to Dell about about his "sub ordinary" horse, I would have had the super high five, using exactly 6 horses (I got Resilience wrong) You kinda remind me of when Steve Roman or someone who said something like: thankfully Yeats wasn't born or raced in the U.S.A. instead of with Aiden across the pond. I shudder to think of that what if, myself. Meanwhile, another explanation: maybe Muth doesn't travel well. The only time he ever left CA before this was when he went to Arkansas. Maybe the stress of travel brings on already-in-progress immune system depression i.e. fever fighting off the common cold type stuff. The bigger problem now is that he's 49 days since last race, and that number will be quite a lot higher by the time he races again. |
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Post by tenfurlongs on May 17, 2024 6:08:50 GMT -5
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on May 17, 2024 8:02:03 GMT -5
I like what I saw from Tuscan Gold.(fought the whole way in the Louisiana Derby) Each effort better than the last. (should move forward) If he does, I don't see him losing here.
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Post by vagrant on May 17, 2024 12:04:26 GMT -5
>>>>>By the way, I noticed that you had some pretty damning words for the Japanese horses before the race,
Damning? Really? Saying that it might be prudent, considering Coolmore and Godolphin's failure to make a dent in the Derby, to not presume that the Japanese will win it "sooner rather than later"? That's "damning"? Pardon my resistance to being swept up in the latest greatest nonsense.
The Japanese acquitted themselves well to be sure, but 3rd and 5th aren't 1st. Still waiting on that.
>>>>>So very many "sub-ordinary" horses, in your humble opinion, (you barely stopped short of call ing them "tomato cans") but meanwhile,
I only called one horse sub-ordinary -- and by any quantitative definition of the word, Mystik Dan fits the bill.
There were, however, absolutely a lot of sub-ordinary horses in that Derby. There always are. And you'd better believe that some of them were tomato cans. They'll prove such in months ahead. Because they always do.
>>>>your posts read you're a 70s style speed figure guy..... in 2024.
Not gonna dignify that dumbassery with a response.
>>>>All the while not putting yourself out there and telling us who your picks were.
Never saw a picks thread. Absent that, I see no reason to proselytize my picks to people who don't ask for them. It presumes that someone cares. 99% of the time, they don't. That goes for any railbirds' picks, present company very much included.
>>>>>I put mine out there.
Congratulations! Did you win money? No? Then who cares?
>>>>>You kinda remind me of when Steve Roman or someone who said something like: thankfully Yeats wasn't born or raced in the U.S.A. instead of with Aiden across the pond. I shudder to think of that what if, myself.
What do these obscure, obtuse and blithering sentences even mean? P.S.: It's Aidan, for god's sake.
Here's the thing: If you don't like my posts, don't read them. If you do, try not to stoop to ad hominem attacks. It's the weakest form of argument, and from what I've seen, your arguments are weak enough already.
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Post by cherokeescot on May 17, 2024 14:24:45 GMT -5
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Post by mysaladdays on May 17, 2024 19:11:25 GMT -5
Did you win money? No? Then who cares? Your "only winners count" mentality, whether humans or otherwise, sounds very removed from anything but gamble. Many do not see these horses, who run for our entertainment and enrichment, as a form of life who deserve our utmost respect. To some, they are just numbers and a positive or negative ROI. It is why, admittedly, most people I "like" speak of thoroughbreds in a manner that behooves their worth, and the words they choose to do so are very telling. And something about yours just rubbed me the wrong way. The mindset and short term thinking, "victory at all costs" (lest you be relegated as useless) isn't success. As a matter of fact, it is the very thing that drives the drugging and cheating and lack of transparency that plagues our sport. Winning honorably, doing the right thing by the horses, referring to them with respectful words, and honest sportsmanship is success. Because, when you apply integrity and honor, winning is just an added bonus, not the whole ball of wax.
So spare me your "if you don't cash you are useless" meme...... and perhaps give some further thought to what success even means. |
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lure
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Post by lure on May 17, 2024 19:23:05 GMT -5
Sorry to break up youse guys love fest, but since this is the Preakness Tred, I'm professing my all in on #9 Imagination. He may lose but I'm goin down swingin! He will be my single in the late P4 starting race 10
56810 w 2,10,11,12 w 123457,10 w #9Imagination. $56 hairs of the doll for fitty cent p4. Who knows, maybe I wont lose that bad...
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Post by vagrant on May 17, 2024 19:35:23 GMT -5
Apologies, lure — and everyone. I was called out, I clapped back and I’m done.
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 18, 2024 11:20:44 GMT -5
I am with Tom… I’ve done this too often, backed a horse in the Derby only to back off 2 weeks later. I realize not as much pace but I don’t believe this horse is completely pace dependent. I played 2 weeks ago and I’m playing again today. |
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 18, 2024 18:22:26 GMT -5
I want to see the place photo……. Congrats to The Coach, can’t believe they let the kid walk the dog like that and steal it. Solid runs by Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom but not much they could do to catch the winner. Glad all 3 horses ITM just ran 2 weeks ago so some folks will maybe start running back again.
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Post by Badactor on May 18, 2024 18:34:48 GMT -5
he did look good.
losing to lukas is ok.
saratoga, maybe?
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 18, 2024 19:48:06 GMT -5
Agree with Ozzy on the hope more trainers run back sooner in the future.
Looking through the charts the track was sealed all day through R8, unsealed for R10 and then sealed for the Preakness and the last. Unusual.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 18, 2024 19:57:54 GMT -5
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 19, 2024 9:36:50 GMT -5
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Post by phlierfreak on May 19, 2024 17:14:16 GMT -5
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Post by phlierfreak on May 19, 2024 17:14:37 GMT -5
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