Derby Analysis
May 4, 2024 9:52:56 GMT -5
Post by oriolesteve on May 4, 2024 9:52:56 GMT -5
Here is my Derby analysis. I've been doing this for years for my friends who are once a year bettors, so most of you know a lot of this information already. I'm alive with 5 in doubles.
Kentucky Derby Analysis
Make no mistake about it. This Derby runs through Fierceness.He has shown such brilliance in a few of his races, that if he brings his "A" game, everyone else
is running for second money. In addition, he has a huge edge in Beyer speed figures. While most of the field is tightly bunched with the Beyers of the contenders in
the 92-98 range, Fierceness has popped two triple digit Beyers of 105 and 110. His Beyer edge is the largest since Bellamy Road came into the Derby in 2005 with a
Beyer of 120 (he ran 7th). I am going to approach the race with two scenarios. I have to play wagers with Fierceness on top in both triples and multiple race wagers, but
I am also using a few other horses on top and am keying one horse in triples.
The Fab Five (including Fierceness)
These are the 4 other horses I am confident will fill out at least two slots of the triple and possibly all three.
HONOR MARIE - he's my top play if Fierceness doesn't fire. He had a solid foundation building 2 year old campaign where he won the Kentucky Jockey Club. In
fact he loves Churchill where he's 2 for 3 with a second. Some horses don’t care for the quirky Churchill surface, but this guy has shown an affinity for it. Started his
3 year old campaign with an even race in the Risen Star which turned out to be a key race as four horses in it came back to win stakes. His last was a nice closing
second in the Louisiana Derby which should set him up nicely. He has been training very smartly and we think he's sitting on a big race. If the trainer scares you off,
just be aware that Whitworth Beckman was a top assistant to both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown and has experience handling Derby horses. I would have liked to
see a big name jockey, but I think Curtis pairs well with the horses, and I think he can get it done. There's been some late buzz on this horse, so don’t expect anything
close to the ML of 20-1. Ill take 10-1 although I have him in futures at 35-1. Finally, his breeding top and bottom suggests class and stamina.
SIERRA LEONE - Fierceness or no Fierceness, this is definitely the horse to beat. This lightly raced colt sired by hot young sire Gun Runner, checks all the
boxes. Nice foundation as a 2 year old when he was nosed by Dornoch in the Remsen. Came back and won the Risen Star and then the Blue Grass with a run that
was nothing short of spectacular. Been working smartly and Gaffalione fits him like a glove. Looks like Brown's best shot ever as he attempts to win his first Derby.
Figures to be second choice at 3-1 or so.
FOREVER YOUNG - I've always been very skeptical about the Japanese horses that have been sent here for the Derby as they’ve been mediocre types. This horse
is different. First of all, the Japanese have become major players in International racing. They’ve won everywhere, including 2 Breeders Cups last year and the Dubai World
Cup. Their two biggest targets are the Derby and the Arc. This horse has shown he is the real deal. Shipped to the Middle East from Japan, he won two prep races when
things didn’t go his way. His Timeform figures equate to about a 95 Beyer, which puts him in the mix, however it's his Thorograph numbers which jump off the page!
I didn’t even know they made Thorograph figs on those races, but he has run back to back 1's. In Thorograph figs, the lower the better. Most of the horses are in the 4-7
range (Fierceness is the only horse faster with two negative #'s). All this said and done, I think this horse is dangerous. Also catching lots of buzz and will probably be
a touch lower than his ML of 10-1.
RESILIENCE - as everyone knows, I'm a sucker for a Bill Mott horse. If he puts a horse in a big race, I snap to attention. This son of the world's top sire Into Mischief
appears to be peaking at the right time. Moderate 2 year old campaign, where he didn’t break his maiden until January 1. This was then followed by a sharp race in the
ultra key race Risen Star. The last race, the Wood, was a major step forward, where he won by 2 1/4 lengths. Yes, the field was very weak, but I like the way he did it.
One thing from the figures I see. His high Beyer of 90 is very light. His Thorograph fig is a 4 which puts him up there, and his Bris figure of 104 is the fastest in the
field, except for Fierceness. I usually trust Beyers, but by all counts he does stack up. Has some tactical speed to lay close and I think he'll get a call coming down the stretch.
The Second Group
These remaining horses have a shot to hit the board so I will include them in some of the lower slots.
Catching Freedom
Just Steel
Just A Touch
Domestic Product
I'm tossing the rest of the field.
Good Luck
Steve
Kentucky Derby Analysis
Make no mistake about it. This Derby runs through Fierceness.He has shown such brilliance in a few of his races, that if he brings his "A" game, everyone else
is running for second money. In addition, he has a huge edge in Beyer speed figures. While most of the field is tightly bunched with the Beyers of the contenders in
the 92-98 range, Fierceness has popped two triple digit Beyers of 105 and 110. His Beyer edge is the largest since Bellamy Road came into the Derby in 2005 with a
Beyer of 120 (he ran 7th). I am going to approach the race with two scenarios. I have to play wagers with Fierceness on top in both triples and multiple race wagers, but
I am also using a few other horses on top and am keying one horse in triples.
The Fab Five (including Fierceness)
These are the 4 other horses I am confident will fill out at least two slots of the triple and possibly all three.
HONOR MARIE - he's my top play if Fierceness doesn't fire. He had a solid foundation building 2 year old campaign where he won the Kentucky Jockey Club. In
fact he loves Churchill where he's 2 for 3 with a second. Some horses don’t care for the quirky Churchill surface, but this guy has shown an affinity for it. Started his
3 year old campaign with an even race in the Risen Star which turned out to be a key race as four horses in it came back to win stakes. His last was a nice closing
second in the Louisiana Derby which should set him up nicely. He has been training very smartly and we think he's sitting on a big race. If the trainer scares you off,
just be aware that Whitworth Beckman was a top assistant to both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown and has experience handling Derby horses. I would have liked to
see a big name jockey, but I think Curtis pairs well with the horses, and I think he can get it done. There's been some late buzz on this horse, so don’t expect anything
close to the ML of 20-1. Ill take 10-1 although I have him in futures at 35-1. Finally, his breeding top and bottom suggests class and stamina.
SIERRA LEONE - Fierceness or no Fierceness, this is definitely the horse to beat. This lightly raced colt sired by hot young sire Gun Runner, checks all the
boxes. Nice foundation as a 2 year old when he was nosed by Dornoch in the Remsen. Came back and won the Risen Star and then the Blue Grass with a run that
was nothing short of spectacular. Been working smartly and Gaffalione fits him like a glove. Looks like Brown's best shot ever as he attempts to win his first Derby.
Figures to be second choice at 3-1 or so.
FOREVER YOUNG - I've always been very skeptical about the Japanese horses that have been sent here for the Derby as they’ve been mediocre types. This horse
is different. First of all, the Japanese have become major players in International racing. They’ve won everywhere, including 2 Breeders Cups last year and the Dubai World
Cup. Their two biggest targets are the Derby and the Arc. This horse has shown he is the real deal. Shipped to the Middle East from Japan, he won two prep races when
things didn’t go his way. His Timeform figures equate to about a 95 Beyer, which puts him in the mix, however it's his Thorograph numbers which jump off the page!
I didn’t even know they made Thorograph figs on those races, but he has run back to back 1's. In Thorograph figs, the lower the better. Most of the horses are in the 4-7
range (Fierceness is the only horse faster with two negative #'s). All this said and done, I think this horse is dangerous. Also catching lots of buzz and will probably be
a touch lower than his ML of 10-1.
RESILIENCE - as everyone knows, I'm a sucker for a Bill Mott horse. If he puts a horse in a big race, I snap to attention. This son of the world's top sire Into Mischief
appears to be peaking at the right time. Moderate 2 year old campaign, where he didn’t break his maiden until January 1. This was then followed by a sharp race in the
ultra key race Risen Star. The last race, the Wood, was a major step forward, where he won by 2 1/4 lengths. Yes, the field was very weak, but I like the way he did it.
One thing from the figures I see. His high Beyer of 90 is very light. His Thorograph fig is a 4 which puts him up there, and his Bris figure of 104 is the fastest in the
field, except for Fierceness. I usually trust Beyers, but by all counts he does stack up. Has some tactical speed to lay close and I think he'll get a call coming down the stretch.
The Second Group
These remaining horses have a shot to hit the board so I will include them in some of the lower slots.
Catching Freedom
Just Steel
Just A Touch
Domestic Product
I'm tossing the rest of the field.
Good Luck
Steve
