2024 Kentucky Derby Name Analysis

[eye123]

[eye123]

[eye123]

[eye123]

[eye123]

[grommet]

Sorry I just realized that I posted this earlier in the wrong area (Tournament Talk). Here is a breakdown of this year’s Derby horse names. I started doing this back in the late 80’s when I read a newspaper article about Derby names – the gist of it being that Derby winners tend to have strong, bold names while horses with weak names were rarely allowed to wear the garland of roses. Soon after that article, I started analyzing the Derby names every year to try and narrow down the potential winners, primarily based on their name, down to 4 horses (upped the number to 5 when the Derby field expanded to 20 horses). I start by eliminating 50% of the horses - and then whittle that list down with some deeper analysis to the final list of 5 horses. I only use this breakdown for the Derby and only use it for the win slot. Just like any other angle I don’t follow it 100% when it comes to bets, but it can help sway some final decisions and can help narrow down the Derby horses used in a Pick-4. Since 1989 there have been 21 hits (with the Derby winner being in the Top 4 / Top 5 name qualifiers) and 14 misses (9 misses made the first cut but missed the second cut, 5 were immediate eliminations). Shameless self-tout note: In 2019, the five name finalists of Country House, Code of Honor, Tacitus, Improbable and Game Winner completed the winning Super High 5 combination that paid $544,185 for a $1 wager. Did I hit it? Absolutely not. Did I kick myself a little, knowing that was likely the only time I had a shot at hitting the Derby Super High 5? Absolutely.

Positives:
- Names that have a bold sound or a ring to them (Strike the Gold, Charismatic)
- Names with alliteration or names that flow smoothly off the tongue (Sunday Silence, Street Sense)
- Names that sound a little old-fashioned (Go for Gin, War Emblem)

Negatives:
- Names with words crunched together (Sweetnorthernsaint, Atswhatimtalknbout)
- Names with abbreviations or apostrophes (Serena’s Song, Unbridled’s Song)
- Names that are devoid of meaning or seem like two random words thrown together (Excellent Meeting, General Challenge)
- Names that sound weak in general (Mister Frisky, Afternoon Deelites)

The ultimate litmus test to me is reading through past Derby winners and then deciding if a name in the current Derby would be a good fit with them. Would it belong on a name plate in the Churchill paddock area? The name analysis seemed more consistent in the 80’s and 90’s, so perhaps it has lost some steam in the modern era - but it’s still fun to break down the names every year. Some of the interpretation is subjective so don’t let it sway you off of your horse if it doesn’t make the final five. Just beware if you think the name sounds weak.

Past Hits:
Sunday Silence
Unbridled
Strike the Gold
Sea Hero
Go for Gin
Thunder Gulch
Grindstone
Silver Charm
Real Quiet
Charismatic
Monarchos
War Emblem
Barbaro
Street Sense
Animal Kingdom
Orb
California Chrome
Nyquist
Justify
Country House
Authentic

Past Misses:
Lil E. Tee (I think the Derby gods decided that Pat Day deserved at least one Derby victory, despite the weak name of the horse)

Fusaichi Pegasus (The horse needed every ounce of his supreme talent to NO POLITICS such a long, clunky, self-serving name)

Funny Cide (I loved this horse on paper, but he was the last horse cut as I thought the name was a little too cute for the Derby gods)

Smarty Jones (In hindsight, this was a dumb omission of mine, considering its old-school charm)

Giacomo (Made the first cut but was eliminated from the finalists based on racing form)

Big Brown (Didn’t like the fact that the horse was named after a large corporation, UPS)

Mine That Bird (The name sounded silly and on paper the horse’s chances looked hopeless)

Super Saver (Couldn’t include a horse that sounded like a K-Mart blue light special)

I’ll Have Another (Was somewhat close to making the final cut, but in the end the name came across as too long)

American Pharoah (Didn’t like the misspelling of ‘pharaoh’ - but in hindsight, a relatively worthy, bold-sounding name)

Always Dreaming (Had mixed feelings on this name and ultimately it did not make the final cut)

Mandaloun* (He was the last horse cut - I thought about promoting him into the top 5 when King Fury scratched, but decided to stand pat and roll with the remaining 4 horses)

Rich Strike* (I prepared my analysis before he drew into the field. This classic-sounding name would have certainly been under strong consideration, but I’ll never know whether or not he would have made the final 5)

Mage: (He made the first cut and was close to being a finalist, but ultimately I thought the name wasn’t as good of a fit as others. Forum member Gold & Myrrh made a great call that this name was similar to Orb and was their top selection).

2024 Name Analysis:

Catalytic: The name derives from the sire, Catalina Cruiser. At first blush, the simple one-word name sounds decent – and the meaning (a substance that increases the speed of a chemical reaction) has a good correlation with speed. Perhaps the car connotations will allow this name to fit into Derby history alongside California Chrome. Including this horse in the second round of analysis.

Catching Freedom: The name derives from the sire, Constitution, and the dam, Catch My Drift. The present participle verb format of the name is a minor strike against - although Bubbling Over & Always Dreaming overcame that obstacle. The word ‘freedom’ has a classic, historical sound - but overall, I think the name falls flat when you mix in the word, ‘catching’. On paper the horse looks dangerous but eliminating from the name finalists.

Domestic Product: The name derives from the dam, Goods and Services. Overall, the name is ultra bland and is an easy elimination from a name perspective. I don’t need the Derby winner to sound like a term that I memorized for Econ 101 many years ago. Klaravich Stables may win a lot of big turf races with names like Consumer Spending and Separationofpowers, but they are going to have to get their act together if they want to win a Kentucky Derby.

Dornoch: Dornoch is a seaside resort town in the Highlands of Scotland. The name isn’t a bad fit with past Derby winners - but overall, it doesn’t feel as strong as some of the top contenders. Someone watching the broadcast might confuse the name with “Door Knock”. Recent form suggests he’s trending in the wrong direction so will eliminate him from contention.

Encino: “Encino” is the Spanish word for an Evergreen Oak. A nice one-word name that evokes some memories of 1971 Derby winner Canonero II. He was a strong contender to make the final 5, but unfortunately was scratched on Tuesday.

Endlessly: The owners say that the name is very loosely derived from the sire, Oscar Performance, and the dam, Dream Fuhrever. A relatively simple, one word name that perhaps correlates a bit with past Derby winner Decidedly. Including him in the second round of analysis.

Epic Ride: It may not be a classic-sounding Derby name, but it does sound kind of cool - and evokes thoughts of Jeff Spicoli, the stoner character from “Fast Times at Ridgemont High”. I’m envisioning Spicoli at the races saying, “Whoa……..EPIC ride by Beschizza, garnering me some righteous bucks!”. Including this horse in the second round of analysis.

Fierceness: Owner Mike Repole stated that he often names horses for “qualities and personalities that I surround myself with”. Despite the arrogance in that statement, there are no immediate strikes against this one-word name and it does convey toughness. Putting through to the second round.

Forever Young: Derived from the dam, Forever Darling. I’m kind of torn on this name - there aren’t any immediate strikes against it, but I’m not sure how well the overall fit is with the names of past Derby winners. Visually speaking he’s a serious contender so he feels worthy of further analysis in the second round.

Grand Mo the First: The name derives from the sire, Uncle Mo. The name is too long and too clunky - and in the end, it sounds like a weird mash up of Sesame Street characters. I can’t see this name lining the Churchill paddock – an easy elimination.

Honor Marie: The name derives from the sire, Honor Code, and the dam, Dame Marie. It is also a nod to name of owners Alan & Kerry Ribble’s granddaughter. I love the way this horse looks on paper but the name falls a little flat, perhaps evoking memories of Honour and Glory & Honor A.P. The Derby gods also haven’t been kind to horses named after friends and relatives (Brody’s Cause & Free Drop Billy, among others). He might make me pay but eliminating from the name contenders.

Just a Touch: The name derives from the sire, Justify, and the dam, Touching Beauty. This is a clever combination of the parents’ names, but it doesn’t feel like a good enough fit to be in the second round of analysis. You want a Derby winner that pours it on, that makes a Spectacular Bid for the wire and wins Decidedly - not one that gives you just a touch of excitement. On paper the horse looks dangerous if he continues his improvement pattern, but have to toss him from the name contenders.

Just Steel: The ‘Just’ part of the name derives from the sire, Justify. The word ‘steel’ sounds tough and bold, but prepending the word ‘just’ neutralizes the name’s overall sound. These horse owners are going to have to figure out a better way to incorporate the name Justify into the progeny name if they want to give themselves a serious shot at winning the Derby. Eliminating.

Mystik Dan: Named in honor of breeder Daniel Hamby’s father (also named Dan) whose first business venture was selling Mystik tape. Horses named after family members and close friends (Long Range Toddy & My Boy Jack, among others) have not fared well in Derby history. One notable exception is Smarty Jones – and Two Phils darn near broke that trend last year. I’m also having a hard time envisioning a product name being part of a Derby winner, electrical tape doesn’t exactly get the blood pumping. The horse looks like a win threat, particularly if the track comes up muddy, but it’s a little too crowded in the top 10 to keep this guy in the mix.

Resilience: Apparently the name is an ode to a character trait of owner Emily Bushnell’s family. Very astute of her to not include a specific family member in the name and just keep it simple. No immediate strikes against - and the name has a decent ring that I could hear Larry Collmus calling out during the Derby stretch run. Passing through to the second round of analysis.

Sierra Leone: Named after the country in southwest Africa. Sierra Leone was a trading post for Europe, so the name is also a nod to the nationalities of the horse's ownership group, which includes Irish, English, German and American individuals. Foreign locations have fared decently in the Derby with Baden-Baden, Donau, Morvich, and Riva Ridge taking the blanket of roses - but Johannesburg, Dublin, China Visit, and Hofburg all coming up short. The name certainly has a nice ring to it and on paper the horse is a serious contender. An easy inclusion for the second round of analysis.

Society Man: The origin of this name is perhaps the most long-winded one I’ve ever seen: It is based on a conversation from 1968 between former President Lyndon B. Johnson and former Georgia Governor Carl Sanders - in which Johnson poked fun at Sanders for not knowing how to spell ‘tuxedo’. President Johnson interrupted Governor Sanders and said, “Carl, you're having a little trouble spelling that tuxedo. I figured a society man like you, you old-town dog, knew all about those kinds of things”. West Paces Racing's Keith Mason, whose group owns Society Man, sure has some obscure naming methods. The name is not an immediate toss, but overall falls a little flat when it comes to a Derby winner – evoking some memories of Talkin’ Man, who finished 12th in the 1995 Kentucky Derby. Eliminating.

Stronghold: The owners picked the name based on the colt’s strong, robust look as a foal. A simple one-word name with some old-school charm and a relatively bold sound to it. A fortress prepared for battle evokes thoughts of past Derby winners Lookout and War Admiral. Including this guy in the second round of analysis.

T O Password: I can’t find any redeeming value in this name. The ‘T O’ is a nod to his owner, Tomoya Osaza. The Derby gods typically don’t reward owners who put the focus on themselves (although Fusaichi Pegasus overcame that obstacle in the 2000 Derby). Putting your initials on the name of every horse you own digs yourself a deeper hole. The ‘password’ part of the name dulls the name even further and is the final nail in the coffin. A very easy TOSS.

Track Phantom: This horse is named after the horse racing website with the same moniker. I like the old-school charm of this name which perhaps evokes some thoughts of Derby winner Dust Commander and BC Classic winner Ghostzapper. Including this guy in the second round of analysis.

West Saratoga: The name has a nice old-school charm to it and the Derby gods should appreciate the homage paid to the famous historic area for horse racing. An easy inclusion in the second round of analysis.

First 10 Qualifiers:
Catalytic
Endlessly
Epic Ride
Fierceness
Forever Young
Resilience
Sierra Leone
Stronghold
Track Phantom
West Saratoga

Further Analysis:
Catalytic: On paper it feels like too much, too soon for this horse to wear the blanket of roses. Some decent name alliteration made him an interesting longshot proposition, but it feels like his name can’t propel him any higher than 4th place. Eliminating.

Endlessly: On paper the horse is interesting and maybe people don’t dismiss the Turfway fake-dirt prep races as quickly as they used to. I’m banking on his pedigree being better suited for turf – and in the end I feel like an adverb name format is a minor strike against. The name ‘Authentic’ sounds Derby-caliber, but ‘Authentically’ loses some steam. Eliminating.

Epic Ride: On paper the horse looks like he won’t want the Derby distance – and his name fit is moderate compared to some of the others in this group of 10 qualifiers. Going to have to eliminate this guy from the Final 5, but the stoner surfers should have a fun two minutes with him.

Fierceness: On paper the horse looks like a freak that may get a little tepid when things don’t go his way. I tend to be skeptical of horses like this in the Derby, thinking of past Derby entrants like Bellamy Road and Sinister Minister. Nit-picking a little, I think the name ‘Fierce’ would have a better ring than ‘Fierceness’, which clunks just a little at the end. It feels like an easy lay-up to include him as a finalist, but I’m taking the chance and keeping him off the Final 5.

Forever Young: Visually this horse looks the part and the Derby distance seems to be right in his wheelhouse. I might be somewhat biased based on his racing form - since the name feels like a moderate inclusion - but just a hunch that he could fit in the way Always Dreaming did in 2017. Making him the last horse of the Final 5.

Resilience: On paper the horse looks a contender with eligibility to improve, the pedigree for distance races, and the Mott/Alvarado combination. I tend to fade horses from Aqueduct prep races, but I could see this name being tacked up in the Churchill paddock area. Including in the Final 5.

Sierra Leone: No doubt that this guy looks great both visually and on paper. You figure it’s only a matter of time before Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione check ‘Winning a Kentucky Derby’ off their list. An easy inclusion for the Final 5.

Stronghold: On paper the California horses seem a cut below the current cream of the crop, but the bloodlines to run long distances and the up-and-coming Antonio Fresu are enough to make him intriguing. I’ll Have Another was somewhat overlooked with his moderate numbers entering the 2012 Derby, maybe this guy is poised to do the same. Ultimately, I feel like the name is a solid fit and will include him in the Final 5.

Track Phantom: On paper this horse looks a cut below the top contenders, but he did finish just a half-length behind Sierra Leone two starts ago. He’s got a lot of seasoning and that used to be a plus for Derby contenders – maybe that old-school approach along with the old-school name will be enough to let this guy pull of the surprise. Including him in the Final 5.

West Saratoga: I love the storyline of the lesser-known owner-trainer-jockey connections and the name certainly fits even if it doesn’t necessarily get the juices flowing. On paper the horse looks like a hard-tryer, and maybe he will give the connections the thrill of a lifetime in his stretch run. It just feels like a 3rd-place finish is his ceiling so I’m grudgingly crossing him off the list.

Final List of name-based winners:
Forever Young
Resilience
Sierra Leone
Stronghold
Track Phantom

[eye123]

Always a fun write up .    Nice analysis.

[cherokeescot]

Look forward to this every year. I agree with you that the name Domestic Product is gross but thought Dornoch might make the cut as it is one of the best golf courses in the world and that’s a theme that Coolmore in particular have been keen on. Good luck with yout final 5 as Sierra Leone and Forever Young are in my short list along with Fierceness , Just a Touch and the afore mentioned Dornoch . 🏌🏿‍♂️

[ozzy]

Grommet so good to see this annual tradition as it goes back to the old Courier Journal Tracktalk Forum days. However, either I am slipping or you are my friend….. I stated earlier Mystik Dan was guaranteed to be an easy first round toss from your analysis based on the misspelling alone! Here you are going all sentimental on me.

[UpInClass]

One of my favorite KD week traditions. Thank you!
I think I remember your Kentucky Derby Name Analysis
correctly predicted ALL of the Top 5 finishers one year.

[merasmag]

as 4everyoung
is still my key
i mis-read
"moderate"
as
"modern".
thought i had u...
thanx 4 your
insights

[merasmag]

May 1, 2024 22:45:40 GMT -5 ozzy said:

Grommet so good to see this annual tradition as it goes back to the old Courier Journal Tracktalk Forum days. However, either I am slipping or you are my friend….. I stated earlier Mystik Dan was guaranteed to be an easy first round toss from your analysis based on the misspelling alone! Here you are going all sentimental on me.

you R
slipping
it's KNOT
misspelled

[onion]

Love this Derby name analysis every year, Grom! Remember, friends, the year Country House won the Derby, Grommet had the super high five in his final list. Take heed...

[shoes]

great job Grommet! My 2 all time favorite Derby names are my 2 all time favorite Derby horses: Sunday Silence and Northern Dancer. A third favorite name just a bit before my time is Whirlaway.

[goldandmyrrh]

Thank you Grommet for continuing this analysis. For me, it's not only a Derby tradition, it's always going to make my final five for threads of the year. I also appreciate the shout-out from last year...I don't follow the TC horses as I used to, many(near all) of the KD entrants I've never even heard of! Fierceness I've heard of, fwiw. I don't begin old school handicapping until your name analysis posts and I get some insight from Kerry T. Tomorrow I'll crack open a racing form. On to this year, before I crack open a racing form I have to say I'm all over STRONGHOLD based on your name analysis, my own name analysis, and Kerry's comments.

[grommet]

Appreciate all the kind words from the Forum Pals!

Eye123: Thanks for the extra visual effects, the map of Sierra Leone made me realize that we could see two African countries in the Derby winner's circle (Sierra Leone & Chad).

Cherokeescot: The name Dornoch is a perfect fit for your forum name, don't let it detract if you like him. The main thing is that he's not an immediate DQ. Appreciate the note on Coolmore, I wonder if the name St. Andrews is in the wings? I remember that Allen Paulson liked to name his horses after Aviation checkpoints (Cigar being the easy one to remember).

Ozzy: The good old C-J Forum days, hard to believe how long ago that was! I remember us chatting after your son (Tyler, if I recall correctly) was born. Now you can make both of us feel old by letting me know that he's in his early 20's and engaged :0) Love the way your mind is drifting early towards the name analysis. If the track does come up muddy, Mystik Dan will be hard for me to toss, though. I think the veteran Churchill jockeys like Lanerie and Hernandez know the rail tends to be golden when it's muddy on Derby weekend and would take advantage.

Becoming: Good luck with Forever Young - I'm not sure if it was a sign or a red herring, but when I was chatting Derby with some friends, the 80's song "Forever Young" by Alphaville came on at the venue (Also a Bob Dylan song that was semi-plagiarized by Rod Stewart. The Alphaville song became a little famous from the dance scene in Napoleon Dynamite). Adding to the intrigue, Alphaville also has a song named, "Big In Japan" on the same album.

Upinclass & Onion: Appreciate the 2019 memories and wish I would have taken advantage! I had Country House for a small win bet and in my P4 - but Mr. Money knocked me out of the P4 in Leg 2.

Shoes: Sunday Silence is my all-time favorite horse - I have a few others that probably rank as high but hard to not be partial to the horse that hooked me as a racing newcomer in 1989. Northern Dancer and Whirlaway are awesome classic names. Interesting to think of how horse naming has changed over the years. Back in the 40's they might not have even allowed T O Password or Grand Mo the First.

Goldandmyrrh: Love that we're on the same page with Stronghold. I don't follow Cal racing much but do play Del Mar when it's open for the season - D'Amato and Fresu feel like solid connections.