IT'S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY- May 1 at Tampa
May 1, 2024 5:34:15 GMT -5
Post by PonyGirlJCM on May 1, 2024 5:34:15 GMT -5
Wednesday, May 1st
Watching the races on YouTube yesterday, the first John Skinner video of the new saltwater fishing season popped up. He got four short Stripers on bucktails from his kayak on the inside of Peconic Bay at Orient. My permit came in the mail today. The wheel of life makes another rotation and the continuum of horse racing will have its pause button activated in just 96 more hours.
1st – It’s often beneficial to compare apples to apples. The 4 & 5 went on the same day and the 5 went three clicks better than the 4. It looks like Pablo Morales’ fishing permit has arrived too. Garcia is up for only the 2nd time at the meeting and only his 4th mount in as many months. However, Bennett has won 6 of last 10 and is clearly going all out in an attempt to make up some ground following his worst meeting in recent memory. This season he is 2 for 23 with StRs, otherwise, who wouldn’t like a Red Haired Gal (4).
Granitz outperforms in L3W but hasn’t yet and he has solid singles but no multiple angle. Stylish Anna (7) was better than par for TE in two of last three and Juan is 27 & 68 with StRs. The Puerto Rican apprentice has cooled off some. Mariangelys was 2 for 25 in April. One for McGoey and one for Mendieta. Lusk has a 12% Win angle.
Trifectas 4,7/2,4,6,7,8/2,4,6,7,8 (24 bets)
2nd – Bennett has a powerful BET AGAINST here, 0-24 with the RB + FBK. Big win went 7 over par.
It’s always tough to try to beat a KOC UCE (30 & 70) but I will today. Moreno had only one mount for Kathy all winter, this bomb that went 6 over par in maiden win. The other went 8 over par in it’s maiden win.
Raven is 56 & 100 when the Plain Favorite and she is 25% Win on the FBK and 70% ITM on the Plain Rightback. Key it.
Richards is 33% Win & Place with his multiple angle.
$35 Exacta Box 5,6 ($70) and $5 Trifectas 5,6/All/5,6 (10 bets)($50)
3rd – Justintimeforwine (7) made a -10 Final Fraction in front running win, leaving no positive impression on me.
McGoey is 6 for 93 with Shippers. Munoz is 2-57 with FBKs. Delgado is 2-12 with UCEs. Favoritism would help.
Torres started the L3W with a 27 & 73 angle but the wheels have come off the bus. He’s 3,4,5,5,6,7,8 this year so far.
Bennett has a 71% Win angle if the favorite in this scenario (106 of 149 Win). He’s also 50 & 70 with the Shortenup when the top choice.
Win 4
4th – Trifecta Box 3,4,7,9
5th – In the PE, Ryan is 5-16 ITM with 2 Wins with this type. Derek outperforms in F3W. Tampa work confounds. Maybe they just wanted the 5YO to get the lay of the land. Horses are afraid of their own shadows.
Trifecta Box 1,2,4,8
6th – KOC has another UCE here and this one looks alright. The 3 will be 75% ITM if the favorite and KOC is 55% ITM with Plain TtoDs. Dibello is 23 & 51 at the meeting and Ferrer has more winners for KOC at the meeting than all but one other rider.
The other, was close to par in Maiden win and Kathy is 2 for 6 win with the Non-shipping L1-3 at the meeting.
PPs 1-6 have had 34 of the last 39 Wins on the Dirt.
Trifectas 3,4/1,6/1,3,4,6 (8 bets)
Pick 4 – 3,4/3/3,6/3,5,6 (12 bets)
Three’s are Wild Pick Four 3-3-3-3
7th – Win 3 to cover
8th – It’s funny how one can be all in on a horse one day and then off it the next. I was all over Well Connected (7) in that SALW5/OC8 the other day but it scratched and is re-entered at the next higher level where it’s chances are significantly diminished. Were they spooked by Arriagada’s Inter Miami who notched only 1st win of 2024 on Wednesday? Did March not want to go with Alex 2-46 Gonzalez for 3-64 HVG? Whatever, the competition is much tougher today.
Trifectas 3,6/2,4,5,7,8,9/3,6 (12 bets)
9th – Stidham is historically 56 & 81 when the favorite on the Rightback.
PPs 1-3 have won 10 of last 15 on the grass.
Exacta Key Box 5/3,6 and Trifectas 5/2,7,10/3,6 (6 bets)
Watching the races on YouTube yesterday, the first John Skinner video of the new saltwater fishing season popped up. He got four short Stripers on bucktails from his kayak on the inside of Peconic Bay at Orient. My permit came in the mail today. The wheel of life makes another rotation and the continuum of horse racing will have its pause button activated in just 96 more hours.
1st – It’s often beneficial to compare apples to apples. The 4 & 5 went on the same day and the 5 went three clicks better than the 4. It looks like Pablo Morales’ fishing permit has arrived too. Garcia is up for only the 2nd time at the meeting and only his 4th mount in as many months. However, Bennett has won 6 of last 10 and is clearly going all out in an attempt to make up some ground following his worst meeting in recent memory. This season he is 2 for 23 with StRs, otherwise, who wouldn’t like a Red Haired Gal (4).
Granitz outperforms in L3W but hasn’t yet and he has solid singles but no multiple angle. Stylish Anna (7) was better than par for TE in two of last three and Juan is 27 & 68 with StRs. The Puerto Rican apprentice has cooled off some. Mariangelys was 2 for 25 in April. One for McGoey and one for Mendieta. Lusk has a 12% Win angle.
Trifectas 4,7/2,4,6,7,8/2,4,6,7,8 (24 bets)
2nd – Bennett has a powerful BET AGAINST here, 0-24 with the RB + FBK. Big win went 7 over par.
It’s always tough to try to beat a KOC UCE (30 & 70) but I will today. Moreno had only one mount for Kathy all winter, this bomb that went 6 over par in maiden win. The other went 8 over par in it’s maiden win.
Raven is 56 & 100 when the Plain Favorite and she is 25% Win on the FBK and 70% ITM on the Plain Rightback. Key it.
Richards is 33% Win & Place with his multiple angle.
$35 Exacta Box 5,6 ($70) and $5 Trifectas 5,6/All/5,6 (10 bets)($50)
3rd – Justintimeforwine (7) made a -10 Final Fraction in front running win, leaving no positive impression on me.
McGoey is 6 for 93 with Shippers. Munoz is 2-57 with FBKs. Delgado is 2-12 with UCEs. Favoritism would help.
Torres started the L3W with a 27 & 73 angle but the wheels have come off the bus. He’s 3,4,5,5,6,7,8 this year so far.
Bennett has a 71% Win angle if the favorite in this scenario (106 of 149 Win). He’s also 50 & 70 with the Shortenup when the top choice.
Win 4
4th – Trifecta Box 3,4,7,9
5th – In the PE, Ryan is 5-16 ITM with 2 Wins with this type. Derek outperforms in F3W. Tampa work confounds. Maybe they just wanted the 5YO to get the lay of the land. Horses are afraid of their own shadows.
Trifecta Box 1,2,4,8
6th – KOC has another UCE here and this one looks alright. The 3 will be 75% ITM if the favorite and KOC is 55% ITM with Plain TtoDs. Dibello is 23 & 51 at the meeting and Ferrer has more winners for KOC at the meeting than all but one other rider.
The other, was close to par in Maiden win and Kathy is 2 for 6 win with the Non-shipping L1-3 at the meeting.
PPs 1-6 have had 34 of the last 39 Wins on the Dirt.
Trifectas 3,4/1,6/1,3,4,6 (8 bets)
Pick 4 – 3,4/3/3,6/3,5,6 (12 bets)
Three’s are Wild Pick Four 3-3-3-3
7th – Win 3 to cover
8th – It’s funny how one can be all in on a horse one day and then off it the next. I was all over Well Connected (7) in that SALW5/OC8 the other day but it scratched and is re-entered at the next higher level where it’s chances are significantly diminished. Were they spooked by Arriagada’s Inter Miami who notched only 1st win of 2024 on Wednesday? Did March not want to go with Alex 2-46 Gonzalez for 3-64 HVG? Whatever, the competition is much tougher today.
Trifectas 3,6/2,4,5,7,8,9/3,6 (12 bets)
9th – Stidham is historically 56 & 81 when the favorite on the Rightback.
PPs 1-3 have won 10 of last 15 on the grass.
Exacta Key Box 5/3,6 and Trifectas 5/2,7,10/3,6 (6 bets)
