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KY Derby- for & against//results charts
Apr 30, 2024 12:21:07 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 30, 2024 12:21:07 GMT -5
My Derby wagering record speaks for itself... 
Despite that, here's my take after having watched the preps replays and looking at pedigrees, human connections.
I don't put in the endless hours anymore trying to dissect every angle, it's just one race (sacrilege!) But you can't deny that with twenty horses the payouts can be enormous, so I'll throw some money at it every year. Someone that I respect as a bettor (money manager) taught me that this is the one race where the 'ALL' button can be your best friend. Don't cherry-pick, there's too much chaos afoot. I'll probably still screw it up somehow, you have to admire my consistency
.
Dornoch- (I have a future wager at 9-1) Mr. Inside for Danny Gargan. Has shown early speed. Won the Remsen by a nose over Sierra Leone in the mud. Hasn't run back to that performance in his two 3yo starts, and Sierra Leone was 6+ lengths clear of him last time. Early speed-type has won at 9F, never raced at CD. Against.
Sierra Leone- $2.3M yearling purchase by Brant and Coolmore. Broke maiden at first asking in November, then got nostriled by Dornoch in the Remsen. Won his two 9F starts as a 3yo, nearly getting back to his best effort in the Blue Grass. Still somewhat unexposed with only four career starts, could have upside. Devoid of early speed, has won at 9F, never ran at CD, would appreciate at least an honest pace. Should be passing horses in the stretch, can he clear all of them? For.
Mystik Dan- Crushed foes in the mud at OP going 8.5F; otherwise has been well-beaten going a mile or more. Never won at 9F, did break maiden at CD going 5.5F, not bred for 10F. Would be a big surprise. Against.
Catching Freedom- (I have a future wager at 31-1) $575K KEESEP yearling, son of Constitution, which I am warming up to as a sire. Same connections as Angel of Empire which ran third in 2023 Derby. Beautifully progressive colt broke maiden at CD going 8F on debut, then won Smarty Jones at OP on NYD. Third in the slop to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star, but put it all together in the Louisiana Derby closing from dead last going 9.5F against a moderate pace. Might need one more forward move but has produced every time. My Pick. For.
Catalytic- Lone win was at 6.5F as a 2yo. Only three career starts, never outside of Florida. Not bred for 10F. Pat Day Mile was available. Against.
Just Steel- Must be made of metal, this will be his twelfth career start (Insert Claude Rains quote here:
Won a rich$ 2yo sprint at CD last fall, then ran four at OP this season, culminating in a good second behind Muth in 9F Arky Derby. Hasn't ducked anybody and usually gets a nice check. Can't endorse on the win end, but his last race paired up would put him in the mix. For.
Honor Marie- Progressive son of Honor Code won Ky Jockey Club here at CD going 8.5F on final 2yo start, then ran behind a few of these in the Risen Star before recording a good second to Catching Freedom last time. Distance should suit, and trainer Whit Beckman knows his way around a good horse, having worked for Pletcher and Chad. Also nice to see Ben Curtis with his first Derby mount after leaving GB to ride here full-time. For.
Just a Touch- $300K OBSAPR Justify x Tapit colt (10F, check), for Qatar Racing et al. Has shown early speed. Did not race as a 2yo but has moved right along in his three sophomore races, with sloppy win on debut, sloppy second to Deterministic in the Gotham, and good second to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass going 9F. Hasn't raced at CD. Clearly has the talent, but is he Mage (very similar profile) or a later-in-the-season 3yo to reckon with? For.
Encino- Unusual route to Derby starting gate with three AW starts at TP, then a win in the Lexington three weeks ago to gain entry. Progressive son of Nyquist ran a big performance figure at KEE, but hasn't been beyond 8.5F yet. Prepared to feel stupid if he hits the board. Against.
T O Password- Has shown early speed. Two career starts/wins for Japanese colt, just held on for the win going 9F after wiring the field through soft fractions. To corrupt a Mandalorian tradition, "This is not the way." Against.
Forever Young- (I have a future wager at 21-1) Undefeated Japanese grandson of JTC-winner Deep Impact took the Middle Eastern road to the Derby. Was wide and all out to nip an ultra-game Book'em Danno on the wire in the one mile Saudi Derby. That was some battle, as the latter has only just made it back to the worktab. Had a five week break to the UAE Derby at 9.5F, which he won in workmanlike fashion after racing at least 3-4 wide all the way around, as he wanted to be out of the desert 'kickback' which apparently is fierce. Was said to be a bit worse for the wear upon arrival in Kentucky, but has returned to his old self while galloping. All-or-nothing candidate for me. Already have him to win, at a better price than he'll likely be on Saturday, so just using underneath defensively in verticals. For.
Track Phantom- $500K KEESEP colt by Quality Road x Into Mischief. Has shown high early speed. Gets blinkers because...? Broke maiden at CD going 8.5F as a 2yo. When stretched out past that distance he has faltered twice, getting collared late by Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom. Not convinced that 10F will do him any favors. Unlikely to have it his own way up front. Anticipating a fade down the lane. Nice horse, though. Against.
West Saratoga- Hasn't really improved as a 3yo, while still getting minor awards. Another who would have been well-suited to the Pat Day Mile. 10F does not help him. Would be a shocker. Against.
Endlessly- So his first dirt start will be the Derby. Hmmm. I really liked him as a turf horse, hopefully he'll get back to that after this race. Hasn't beaten much on AW this year. Headshaker. Against.
Domestic Product- Seems like Klaravich wanted to enter a homebred, just because. Been off since the March 9th TB Derby. He did beat Fierceness in the Holy Bull, so there is that. 10F looks to test his stamina and then some, but did break his maiden going 9F. Against.
Grand Mo the First- Should be able to run all day with that JD Gunther pedigree, but his only wins are at 5F and 5.5F on AW. Might be the slowest American entry in the field. Do you like money? Against, with gusto.
Fierceness- No brilliant insight from me here. Has shown early speed. Has run the two fastest races of any of these runners, in the BC Juvenile and the Florida Derby. When he's had trouble at the start, his races went right into the crapper. Needs to get right away from there and look to tuck in as best as possible while staying out of trouble. Could win this by five or more lengths if he has a smooth trip. But this is the Derby, and stuff happens. But not always. Deserving favorite, ahead of Sierra Leone. Will be on top of my saver triples and a few exactas. For.
Stronghold- How good was the one mile MSW race #7 at CD on October 1st last year?! Stronghold was the winner, with Resilience in second and Track Phantom third. Horse is consistently up front just off the pace. Has run his six races at six different tracks. Done little wrong with three wins, three seconds. Not convinced he'll like 10F. Certainly a top-ten prospect, maybe top-five, but his SA Derby effort wouldn't win this, I don't think, especially from a very wide draw. Against.
Resilience- Didn't expect that I would consider him much of a threat, but after review he's completely progressive and his two races this year were excellent. He's improving and gets Mott's main man Junior Alvarado on board for this. Not usually a fan of Into Mischief on top in 9F+ races, but maybe it's the Smart Strike that gives him stamina. Tough to win from way out there, but this is just the kind of horse that can run into the exotics at a big price and make your day. For.
Society Man- Frankie got a Derby mount after all, and this guy seemed to have the lightbulb switch on in his last two races, especially as runner-up in the Wood Memorial at 106-1. Still a huge ask drawn one from the outside. For Frankie-philes only. Against.
Epic Ride- Draws into the field with the scratch of Encino. Adds more early speed to the event. Blue Grass was surprisingly good, but I expect that was his ceiling for now. Would like to see him try turf at some point. Against, but remember Rich Strike.
TW
Despite that, here's my take after having watched the preps replays and looking at pedigrees, human connections.
I don't put in the endless hours anymore trying to dissect every angle, it's just one race (sacrilege!) But you can't deny that with twenty horses the payouts can be enormous, so I'll throw some money at it every year. Someone that I respect as a bettor (money manager) taught me that this is the one race where the 'ALL' button can be your best friend. Don't cherry-pick, there's too much chaos afoot. I'll probably still screw it up somehow, you have to admire my consistency
.Dornoch- (I have a future wager at 9-1) Mr. Inside for Danny Gargan. Has shown early speed. Won the Remsen by a nose over Sierra Leone in the mud. Hasn't run back to that performance in his two 3yo starts, and Sierra Leone was 6+ lengths clear of him last time. Early speed-type has won at 9F, never raced at CD. Against.
Sierra Leone- $2.3M yearling purchase by Brant and Coolmore. Broke maiden at first asking in November, then got nostriled by Dornoch in the Remsen. Won his two 9F starts as a 3yo, nearly getting back to his best effort in the Blue Grass. Still somewhat unexposed with only four career starts, could have upside. Devoid of early speed, has won at 9F, never ran at CD, would appreciate at least an honest pace. Should be passing horses in the stretch, can he clear all of them? For.
Mystik Dan- Crushed foes in the mud at OP going 8.5F; otherwise has been well-beaten going a mile or more. Never won at 9F, did break maiden at CD going 5.5F, not bred for 10F. Would be a big surprise. Against.
Catching Freedom- (I have a future wager at 31-1) $575K KEESEP yearling, son of Constitution, which I am warming up to as a sire. Same connections as Angel of Empire which ran third in 2023 Derby. Beautifully progressive colt broke maiden at CD going 8F on debut, then won Smarty Jones at OP on NYD. Third in the slop to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star, but put it all together in the Louisiana Derby closing from dead last going 9.5F against a moderate pace. Might need one more forward move but has produced every time. My Pick. For.
Catalytic- Lone win was at 6.5F as a 2yo. Only three career starts, never outside of Florida. Not bred for 10F. Pat Day Mile was available. Against.
Just Steel- Must be made of metal, this will be his twelfth career start (Insert Claude Rains quote here:
Won a rich$ 2yo sprint at CD last fall, then ran four at OP this season, culminating in a good second behind Muth in 9F Arky Derby. Hasn't ducked anybody and usually gets a nice check. Can't endorse on the win end, but his last race paired up would put him in the mix. For.
Honor Marie- Progressive son of Honor Code won Ky Jockey Club here at CD going 8.5F on final 2yo start, then ran behind a few of these in the Risen Star before recording a good second to Catching Freedom last time. Distance should suit, and trainer Whit Beckman knows his way around a good horse, having worked for Pletcher and Chad. Also nice to see Ben Curtis with his first Derby mount after leaving GB to ride here full-time. For.
Just a Touch- $300K OBSAPR Justify x Tapit colt (10F, check), for Qatar Racing et al. Has shown early speed. Did not race as a 2yo but has moved right along in his three sophomore races, with sloppy win on debut, sloppy second to Deterministic in the Gotham, and good second to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass going 9F. Hasn't raced at CD. Clearly has the talent, but is he Mage (very similar profile) or a later-in-the-season 3yo to reckon with? For.
T O Password- Has shown early speed. Two career starts/wins for Japanese colt, just held on for the win going 9F after wiring the field through soft fractions. To corrupt a Mandalorian tradition, "This is not the way." Against.
Forever Young- (I have a future wager at 21-1) Undefeated Japanese grandson of JTC-winner Deep Impact took the Middle Eastern road to the Derby. Was wide and all out to nip an ultra-game Book'em Danno on the wire in the one mile Saudi Derby. That was some battle, as the latter has only just made it back to the worktab. Had a five week break to the UAE Derby at 9.5F, which he won in workmanlike fashion after racing at least 3-4 wide all the way around, as he wanted to be out of the desert 'kickback' which apparently is fierce. Was said to be a bit worse for the wear upon arrival in Kentucky, but has returned to his old self while galloping. All-or-nothing candidate for me. Already have him to win, at a better price than he'll likely be on Saturday, so just using underneath defensively in verticals. For.
Track Phantom- $500K KEESEP colt by Quality Road x Into Mischief. Has shown high early speed. Gets blinkers because...? Broke maiden at CD going 8.5F as a 2yo. When stretched out past that distance he has faltered twice, getting collared late by Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom. Not convinced that 10F will do him any favors. Unlikely to have it his own way up front. Anticipating a fade down the lane. Nice horse, though. Against.
West Saratoga- Hasn't really improved as a 3yo, while still getting minor awards. Another who would have been well-suited to the Pat Day Mile. 10F does not help him. Would be a shocker. Against.
Endlessly- So his first dirt start will be the Derby. Hmmm. I really liked him as a turf horse, hopefully he'll get back to that after this race. Hasn't beaten much on AW this year. Headshaker. Against.
Domestic Product- Seems like Klaravich wanted to enter a homebred, just because. Been off since the March 9th TB Derby. He did beat Fierceness in the Holy Bull, so there is that. 10F looks to test his stamina and then some, but did break his maiden going 9F. Against.
Grand Mo the First- Should be able to run all day with that JD Gunther pedigree, but his only wins are at 5F and 5.5F on AW. Might be the slowest American entry in the field. Do you like money? Against, with gusto.
Fierceness- No brilliant insight from me here. Has shown early speed. Has run the two fastest races of any of these runners, in the BC Juvenile and the Florida Derby. When he's had trouble at the start, his races went right into the crapper. Needs to get right away from there and look to tuck in as best as possible while staying out of trouble. Could win this by five or more lengths if he has a smooth trip. But this is the Derby, and stuff happens. But not always. Deserving favorite, ahead of Sierra Leone. Will be on top of my saver triples and a few exactas. For.
Stronghold- How good was the one mile MSW race #7 at CD on October 1st last year?! Stronghold was the winner, with Resilience in second and Track Phantom third. Horse is consistently up front just off the pace. Has run his six races at six different tracks. Done little wrong with three wins, three seconds. Not convinced he'll like 10F. Certainly a top-ten prospect, maybe top-five, but his SA Derby effort wouldn't win this, I don't think, especially from a very wide draw. Against.
Resilience- Didn't expect that I would consider him much of a threat, but after review he's completely progressive and his two races this year were excellent. He's improving and gets Mott's main man Junior Alvarado on board for this. Not usually a fan of Into Mischief on top in 9F+ races, but maybe it's the Smart Strike that gives him stamina. Tough to win from way out there, but this is just the kind of horse that can run into the exotics at a big price and make your day. For.
Society Man- Frankie got a Derby mount after all, and this guy seemed to have the lightbulb switch on in his last two races, especially as runner-up in the Wood Memorial at 106-1. Still a huge ask drawn one from the outside. For Frankie-philes only. Against.
Epic Ride- Draws into the field with the scratch of Encino. Adds more early speed to the event. Blue Grass was surprisingly good, but I expect that was his ceiling for now. Would like to see him try turf at some point. Against, but remember Rich Strike.
TW
