|
|
Post by thunderbolt on Apr 29, 2024 7:07:53 GMT -5
Hey been a while since I have been here, many thanks Dell for keeping the conversation going! Will be betting the super as every year, just looking back at the last 12 years here are some random thoughts in a couple attachments that I hope are readable and make sense:  |
|
|
|
Post by thunderbolt on Apr 29, 2024 7:10:06 GMT -5
 Leave the favorite out of the super at your peril! 92% they make it in! Not a great track record for the second choice in the betting. Front runners come in often but at low odds, ergo front-running longshots don’t do well. Stalkers don’t do great but if they come in they aren’t longshots Midpack/clunkers make up more than half of the Super horses and they can be at any odds. |
|
shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,181
|
Post by shoes on Apr 29, 2024 7:42:00 GMT -5
Thanks thunderbolt, nice work!
|
|
|
|
Post by thunderbolt on Apr 29, 2024 8:02:14 GMT -5
Whoa! Have to issue a correction, my estimates of the 2nd and 3rd choices coming in the Super are flat-out wrong, way underestimated. Maybe this is why I get audited by the IRS every year. Here is a revised version of how the 1st/2nd/3rd choices come in the super: Favorites - 92% of the time 2nd Choice - 50% of the time 3rd Choice - 67% of the time  |
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2024 14:40:49 GMT -5
This is great, thank you for your due dilligence with these stats.
|
|
