The Wood- performance figs

[shoes]

I was kinda surprised to see how highly Bris ranked the Wood Memorial. It would seem to make Resilience a strong  contender and give Society Man a long shot look. Neither were a direction that I was leaning. Any opinions?

[shoes]

PS- the same applies to the Gazelle, where Bris gave Where's My Ring a 104.

[thunderbolt]

That was a strong finish by Resilience, looked like he had plenty left in the tank. If it's wet he goes up in probability.

Society Man wasn't showing much of a kick, looked like a steady grinder but looked to me like he needs a major turbo boost to get up in the money.

[ozzy]

Agree with you Shoes, I was very surprised by the BRIS number as not far off Fierceness’s 106 in the FL Derby and a few higher than the Sierra Leonne’s 101 in the Bluegrass.

As for another tool, does anyone regularly use Optix? I’ve looked at the plot quite a bit for this year and some of the recent Derby trends. It’s a bit difficult given there is only one plot for the race considering none have ever gone the Derby distance, but Q1 horses typically fair very well regardless of shape. Q4 squares usually fair well in the exactas and a Q1 or Q4 square (late pace) should always be given an upgrade over a circle (early pace) by a factor of 2.5X according to the data provided in a quick tutorial. It’s all a bit too in-depth for my brain to comprehend on a day to day basis, but for the Derby, it does seem to make some sense and curious if anyone else used.

[shoes]

Haven't used optix ozzy, though it's intriguing.

I almost find Society Man's Wood fig even more amazing- 102, which is the 3rd best last race fig in the field, also faster than Sierra Leone not to mention all of the other contenders besides Fierceness and Resilience.

[ozzy]

I can’t recall the year but seems like BRIS did this a few years back coming out of the FL Derby. They had it much strong than any other figure and it showed in the running of the Derby. Not saying that will happen, but when all other figures seem to agree and one is an outlier….

[eye123]

Apr 29, 2024 7:46:57 GMT -5 shoes said:

PS- the same applies to the Gazelle, where Bris gave Where's My Ring a 104.

I like FYI,Torpedo and also Where's My Ring in the Oaks. (Will use all three in Oaks/Derby DD's) That 15-1 is very tempting.      

[mysaladdays]

For what it's worth, it all depends on the pace. And of course, not being slopply track.

Do you all expect a normal fast pace, or a faster-than-normal pace? I think that also makes a huge difference but can be subtle.

If just a normal fast pace I give Resilience and Society Man a shot (especially if playing a superfecta or super high five ala an Instilled Regard, Obesos, Normandy Invasion, Went The Day Well, Papa Clem. Make Music for Me et. al *surprises*.)

If a super faster than normal pace, I would probably not use them in a trifecta most likely? This was hard for me to admit to with Resilience since I am a huge Mott/Reslilience fan. 

At least that is how I would play it today if someone forced my hand.

[thebobtailnag]

Any thoughts that the track was simply graded to be that fast? When multiple winners run exceptionally faster at the same track on the same day I doubt multiple trainers were using the same drugs that day. This is a similar situation 50 years ago when the winner of the Derby set the fastest time ever in the derby (1:59.4) and the horse who finest second ran the second fastest time ever (1:59.8). How do ya "splane that?

[ozzy]

The problem is the final times for the Wood and Gazelle were not exceptionally fast per se.

Going back to the 1974 Derby, I think part of that can be explained by the fact that the two horses running those times were Secretariat and Swaps who were not your normal horses….. The track may have played a part for sure, but I don’t recall the track producing eye popping times on Wood Day this year.

[thebobtailnag]

The Place that year was Sham

[ozzy]

Sorry yes, Sham…. I am packing for the Derby and 5 nights away getting my S named horses confused…. I was only off by a decade or so…

[Deleted]

safe travels