Post by dblakers on Apr 26, 2024 10:24:21 GMT -5
This is a weird derby to me. The two favorites, big favorites are Fierceness and Sierra Leone. Let's start with Fierceness. Champion 2 year old. Highest Beyers by far. Workouts look good. Watching him run it seems that when he is able to stalk or be on a slow pace, he can finish fast. IF he encounters any trouble he does not win. In the Florida Derby he beat nothing at all. Lost to Domestic Product in the Holy Bull. Not sure what to think of a horse like this. IF he breaks bad I believe he is done. IF the pace is fast, not sure he will have any kick.
Sierra Leone the 2.3 Million dollar horse. Looks the part. Visually he is impressive. Beat more derby runners than anyone else in the field. Big closer who wins majority of his races. The problem is he doesn't come home as fast as it looks. In the Blue Grass the fastest pace since Keeneland went back to dirt and he came home 13 seconds. Visually he looked good, but the clock tells us something else. I can't lie the clock bothers me. With that set up he got, I expected him to roll like a train and come home in 12.
Forever Young - Could be the 3rd choice. Undefeated Japan horse. The horse closes fast in every one of his races. Lots of travel, but world class connections. No UAE Derby winner has won the derby. So can the horse overcome that, plus all of this years travel to win our biggest race? I am not sure. The one thing I know is IF he is anywhere near the leaders turning for home, he will close fast.
The other horses in the race honestly to me all look around the same. Honor Marie, Mystic Dan, Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Strong Hold, Resiience, Just a Touch etc.. It's a tough derby to me, because the two favorite could easily win, but have major holes.
Sierra Leone the 2.3 Million dollar horse. Looks the part. Visually he is impressive. Beat more derby runners than anyone else in the field. Big closer who wins majority of his races. The problem is he doesn't come home as fast as it looks. In the Blue Grass the fastest pace since Keeneland went back to dirt and he came home 13 seconds. Visually he looked good, but the clock tells us something else. I can't lie the clock bothers me. With that set up he got, I expected him to roll like a train and come home in 12.
Forever Young - Could be the 3rd choice. Undefeated Japan horse. The horse closes fast in every one of his races. Lots of travel, but world class connections. No UAE Derby winner has won the derby. So can the horse overcome that, plus all of this years travel to win our biggest race? I am not sure. The one thing I know is IF he is anywhere near the leaders turning for home, he will close fast.
The other horses in the race honestly to me all look around the same. Honor Marie, Mystic Dan, Just Steel, Catching Freedom, Strong Hold, Resiience, Just a Touch etc.. It's a tough derby to me, because the two favorite could easily win, but have major holes.
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