T O Password - at the very least, a pace factor

[5wide]

He looks one dimensional , off very limited data. If he goes with fierceness early it could make thinks interesting ,

[shoes]

Thanks 5wide. That #4 horse closed big time, for a second I thought he got there. Any idea what the fractions were?

[lure]

I think I figured out why the Japanese horses never win the KD. They have been running the wrong way!

[5wide]

Apr 24, 2024 11:16:25 GMT -5 shoes said:

Thanks 5wide. That #4 horse closed big time, for a second I thought he got there. Any idea what the fractions were?

No, just a final time , but no idea what's par for that course.

The 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) went in 1:54.1.

[mysaladdays]

Apr 24, 2024 11:16:25 GMT -5 shoes said:

Thanks 5wide. That #4 horse closed big time, for a second I thought he got there. Any idea what the fractions were?

 That #4 is La Oracion,  by Creator who won the Belmont.  He was actually in the top 3 betting choices before the race went off because he had won 2 straight at the same track and trip (but had not been nominated for the TC like T O Password was). 

But the the Fukuryu awards points on a 40-20-12-8-4 basis to the respective top five finishers, the most of any race on the Japan Road so that is how T O Password got in.    

That course is somewhat undulating, incline, decline, incline at the very end, and someone told me he ran 13.2 for the final 200 meters but I don't know how to figure adjustments, etc. and I have no idea what consistency that track is like, fluffy, deep etc.   Does anyone know ?

Since he was in charge as the leader the whole way, there were a few times when it looked like he was slowing things down.  I'm going to ask a japanese friend of mine who was there for that race. 


Ryan Moore was discussing the Japanese dirt tracks compared to US and he has said they are deeper sand and somewhat slower and that the kickback is like "sand spray".  That would match what Marquand has said, that the kickback is soft.  Demuro has said there is little difference btween outside and inside, the cushion is very good. 

If you look at photos of last year's winner you can kinda see that in photo here although track was wet but it does certainly look sandy/deep to me?:
www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/japan-road-to-the-kentucky-derby-concludes-at-nakayama/

[mysaladdays]

Apr 24, 2024 9:55:33 GMT -5 5wide said:

He looks one dimensional 

Yet I see the same one-dimensionality in Fierceness when he gets out front and has no obstacles and a good break. 

Except that Fierceness when he does it he is also VERY FAST.    

I guess it will depend on his post position and trip if he can get out in front of 19 other horses and just gallop along with that speed gift he has.

We don't really have a speed figure on T O Password but doubtful he is fast enough to do that kind of pace battle.  

 

[dblakers]

I remember a couple years ago a Japanese horse Crown Pride quarter horse it out of there. Jockey intent is a big factor when getting the lead.  Who is hell bent on doing so?

[shoes]

He was pretty washed out this morning at the track, during training hours.

[ozzy]

Lots of folks saying “it’s only a matter of time before the Japanese win the Derby” and while that may be true, I would also say many said the same about huge outfits such as Godolphin and Coolmore which might as well represent an entire country. Nearly three decades of attempts and no real luck yet…. (Can’t count Thunder Gulch I am talking a true Coolmore horse coming over). Just something to consider

[mysaladdays]

Just saying TO is not going to be the worst horse in the race. Master Fencer who was 2nd in the same race ran 6th in the KY Derby in 2019.

I think Mr. Ozasa just wants everyone to see his horse, which he has a lot of pride in, on the world stage.  To break as well as he did from the gate, and win that race on Debut, shows he does have some talent. And I think its great that he travelled all this way so that we COULD see him.   

The times are going to be slower for that race because it's a slower track, with a lot more cushion than here (lots of sand).  So you can't just go by final times. 


Copano Rickey and T O Password were both bred by the same farm, Yanagawa Bokujo and races for Tomoya Ozasa, whose “T O” initials are the beginning of every horse he owns.  Copano Rickey is the only 1 of 2 horses to win the February Stakes G1 back to back in successive years in history (2014/15) besides Cafe Pharoah ('21/'22) but only 8F. 


By the way, another "T O" horse won a big classic distance race this week....T O Royal just won the $2.68 million Tenno Sho G1 at about 2 miles, (on turf) won by 2 lengths and was going way up in Class.  Put that name down for the Melbourne Cup.