Playing around with some "historicals"

[mysaladdays]

Apollo curse was broken. Many others as well. Here are some historicals that still need breaking and I went thru the PPs to see what horses it applies to. This is just for fun, but will be interesting to revisit after the big race:


--UAE Derby winner has never won the Kentucky Derby since the UAE Derby began in 2000 (Forever Young)
-- no Blue Grass winner has won the Derby since 1991 (Sierra Leone)
-- no Wood Memorial winner has won the Derby since 2000 (Resilience)
-- best finishing position for any horse who last raced outside the U.S. has been 5th. (T O Password, Forever Young)

However, horses who have prepped in those 2 races have won. Here are horses that stat would apply to (but may fail on some of the other historicals): 
Bluegrass: Epic Ride, Just a Touch, Dornoch
Wood Memorial: Society Man, (Uncle Heavy if he get in) 

In the last 20 years, 55 horses who ran at least one "prep race" in NY have a record of 55-0-0-1. That 1 is Revolutionary who ran 3rd in 2013). I'll asssume preps are any race that give "points" toward getting into the Derby gate. This years candidates are:

Remsen: Sierra Leone, Dornoch, Domestic Product
Champagne: Fierceness
Wood Memorial: Resilience, Society Man, (Uncle Heavy if he gets in)
Gotham: Just A Touch
Withers: Society Man, (Uncle Heavy if he gets in)
(Just Steel ran in the Hopeful but that race gives no derby points. So he is safe from this stat.)

The top points leader has not won the KY Derby since 2014 and 2013 (California Chrome, Orb)
Sierra Leone
(Points leaders of the past: Epicenter ran 2nd (was 2nd in points to Forte who did not run), Essential Quality ran 4th, Tiz the Law ran 2nd, Tacitus ran 3rd/4th, Magnum Moon ran 19th, Girvin ran 13th, Gun Runner ran 3rd). In 2014 and 2013, California Chrome and Orb were points leaders respectively, and did WIN)


So far, the only horses who are *safe* from any and all these historicals listed above (although I'm sure there are other historicals I haven't mentoned yet) and who can WIN are:
Epic Ride (one that I like if he makes the gate)
Just Steel
Catching Freedom
Stronghold
Endlessly
Track Phantom
West Saratoga
Honor Marie
Catalytic
Mystic Dan
Encino
Grand Mo The First

[mysaladdays]

Wood winners seem to do much better in the Belmont in last 24 years?

[lure]

I seem to remember a high percentage of Derby winners Beyered over a 100 in their final prep. That would eliminate a bunch of horses this year. Also, in the KD, the RAN factor is huge. My guess is that over the past 30 Derbies, 20-25 have had RAN in their sire line. (I miss Dr Romans Derby analysis.) Also, the Louisiana Derby has not produced KD winners. My 5 win candidates today are:

Sierra Leone (RAN) (Brown and Tyler both due)
Fierceness (RAN) Pletcher and Johhny V have both won it
Endlessly (if he goes)
Encino (Cox and Geroux have both won it))
Stronghold (SA winner should provide value)

[5wide]

In the last 20 years, 55 horses who ran at least one "prep race" in NY have a record of 55-0-0-1. That 1 is Revolutionary who ran 3rd in 2013). I'll asssume preps are any race that give "points" toward getting into the Derby gate.


WOW !

[shoes]

I have not independently verified this, but it would be a startling stat (from Jon White):

57 of the last 61 Derby winners were either 1st or 2nd at the head of the stretch (I've also heard this as being within 2 lengths but that would be potentially much different). The 4 exceptions: Rich Strike, I'll have Another, Giacomo, and Grindstone.

haven't gone to the charts to verify but that would mean that such famous winning closers as Gato del sol, Ferdinand, and Mine that Bird, among others, had done the bulk of their closing charge by the time they got to the top of the stretch.

If this is a thing, it would suggest that contenders like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie had best not start their move too late. Or alternatively maybe next year the stat will be 5 of the last 62.

[mysaladdays]

Apr 24, 2024 11:08:58 GMT -5 shoes said:

57 of the last 61 Derby winners were either 1st or 2nd at the head of the stretch (I've also heard this as being within 2 lengths but that would be potentially much different). The 4 exceptions: Rich Strike, I'll have Another, Giacomo, and Grindstone.

haven't gone to the charts to verify but that would mean that such famous winning closers as Gato del sol, Ferdinand, and Mine that Bird, among others, had done the bulk of their closing charge by the time they got to the top of the stretch.

If this is a thing, it would suggest that contenders like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie had best not start their move too late. Or alternatively maybe next year the stat will be 5 of the last 62.

That is a good stat and what today caused me to think I can't use Honor Marie in the win spot i.e. I was a lot higher on him than I am now. His pedigree looks kinda turfy and that's okay but my main concern is one of those "who did he beat" conundrums.  He won his maiden at CD in a sprint. And he beat Real Men Violin in the KYJC, but mostly because RMV was busy tangling with Stretch Ride and so Honor Marie was able to run by him. 

I have to wonder if he has killer instinct to win, because comparatively, Catching Freedom, Resilience, Sierra Leone, and Just Steel

have similarly competitive late pace figures as he does and his early pace figs aren't that great?

[cherokeescot]

Apr 24, 2024 11:08:58 GMT -5 shoes said:

I have not independently verified this, but it would be a startling stat (from Jon White):

57 of the last 61 Derby winners were either 1st or 2nd at the head of the stretch (I've also heard this as being within 2 lengths but that would be potentially much different). The 4 exceptions: Rich Strike, I'll have Another, Giacomo, and Grindstone.

haven't gone to the charts to verify but that would mean that such famous winning closers as Gato del sol, Ferdinand, and Mine that Bird, among others, had done the bulk of their closing charge by the time they got to the top of the stretch.

If this is a thing, it would suggest that contenders like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie had best not start their move too late. Or alternatively maybe next year the stat will be 5 of the last 62.

No way that Mine That Bird was anywhere near the lead at the head of the stretch 

[cherokeescot]

Apr 24, 2024 11:08:58 GMT -5 shoes said:

I have not independently verified this, but it would be a startling stat (from Jon White):

57 of the last 61 Derby winners were either 1st or 2nd at the head of the stretch (I've also heard this as being within 2 lengths but that would be potentially much different). The 4 exceptions: Rich Strike, I'll have Another, Giacomo, and Grindstone.

haven't gone to the charts to verify but that would mean that such famous winning closers as Gato del sol, Ferdinand, and Mine that Bird, among others, had done the bulk of their closing charge by the time they got to the top of the stretch.

If this is a thing, it would suggest that contenders like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie had best not start their move too late. Or alternatively maybe next year the stat will be 5 of the last 62.

Are you sure that stat wasn’t from Walter White 😉

Ferdinand was fourth well into the stretch 

[cherokeescot]

Apr 24, 2024 11:08:58 GMT -5 shoes said:

I have not independently verified this, but it would be a startling stat (from Jon White):

57 of the last 61 Derby winners were either 1st or 2nd at the head of the stretch (I've also heard this as being within 2 lengths but that would be potentially much different). The 4 exceptions: Rich Strike, I'll have Another, Giacomo, and Grindstone.

haven't gone to the charts to verify but that would mean that such famous winning closers as Gato del sol, Ferdinand, and Mine that Bird, among others, had done the bulk of their closing charge by the time they got to the top of the stretch.

If this is a thing, it would suggest that contenders like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie had best not start their move too late. Or alternatively maybe next year the stat will be 5 of the last 62.

Gato Del Sol 5th at the top of the stretch 

[shoes]

Apr 24, 2024 13:50:35 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

Apr 24, 2024 11:08:58 GMT -5 shoes said:

I have not independently verified this, but it would be a startling stat (from Jon White):

57 of the last 61 Derby winners were either 1st or 2nd at the head of the stretch (I've also heard this as being within 2 lengths but that would be potentially much different). The 4 exceptions: Rich Strike, I'll have Another, Giacomo, and Grindstone.

haven't gone to the charts to verify but that would mean that such famous winning closers as Gato del sol, Ferdinand, and Mine that Bird, among others, had done the bulk of their closing charge by the time they got to the top of the stretch.

If this is a thing, it would suggest that contenders like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie had best not start their move too late. Or alternatively maybe next year the stat will be 5 of the last 62.

Are you sure that stat wasn’t from Walter White 😉

Ferdinand was fourth well into the stretch 

This chart shows Ferdinand  was 1st by a length at the stretch call. web.archive.org/web/20100714104122/http://d3b4lt1s53xf6k.cloudfront.net/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/charts/1986.pdf

[shoes]

Apr 24, 2024 13:46:29 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

Apr 24, 2024 11:08:58 GMT -5 shoes said:

I have not independently verified this, but it would be a startling stat (from Jon White):

57 of the last 61 Derby winners were either 1st or 2nd at the head of the stretch (I've also heard this as being within 2 lengths but that would be potentially much different). The 4 exceptions: Rich Strike, I'll have Another, Giacomo, and Grindstone.

haven't gone to the charts to verify but that would mean that such famous winning closers as Gato del sol, Ferdinand, and Mine that Bird, among others, had done the bulk of their closing charge by the time they got to the top of the stretch.

If this is a thing, it would suggest that contenders like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie had best not start their move too late. Or alternatively maybe next year the stat will be 5 of the last 62.

No way that Mine That Bird was anywhere near the lead at the head of the stretch 

Chart shows Mine That Bird 1st by a length at the stretch call. www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/02/2009&cy=USA&rn=11

[shoes]

Still trying to find a chart for Gato del Sol. Maybe the seeming contradiction is where in the "stretch" the official race charts calculate from?

[cherokeescot]

I believe in the charts the stretch is defined as the one furlong pole (220 yds , 660 feet) . At Churchill Downs the stretch is 411 yds, 1234 feet. If Jon White’s stat is based on head of the stretch my view is that none of MTB , GDS and Ferdinand were in first two . 

[shoes]

This likewise shows Gato del sol 1st by a half length at the stretch call.
www.ebay.com/itm/393420837879

[cherokeescot]

Would be interested to hear what everyone’s understanding of the stretch was . Mine was the run between the final turn and the winning post .

[shoes]

Apr 24, 2024 15:53:12 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

I believe in the charts the stretch is defined as the one furlong pole (220 yds , 660 feet) . At Churchill Downs the stretch is 411 yds, 1234 feet. If Jon White’s stat is based on head of the stretch my view is that none of MTB , GDS and Ferdinand were in first two . 


View Attachment

It is likely that Jon White was strictly basing it on the official race charts, so he is technically accurate, though I agree with you that coming out of the turn, entering the final straight, none of those 3 were in first or second. Still in rewatching these races a few times, none of the 3 were all that far behind at that point, either. All 3 had done a substantial part  of their gaining of ground on the leaders. 

[1hooper]

Gato had the lead when he went by me just inside the 3/16 pole. Snapped a photo.

[5wide]

Apr 24, 2024 16:00:36 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

Would be interested to hear what everyone’s understanding of the stretch was . Mine was the run between the final turn and the winning post .

me too, but apparently not. 

Here's drf

www1.drf.com/help/help_drf_pp.html

Post Position - 6. The horse left the starting gate from stall number six. Post position can differ from official program number because of late scratches, horses coupled as a betting entry, or runners grouped in a mutuel field.

First Call - 9. The horse's position immediately after leaving the starting gate or after quarter-mile depending on the distance. This horse was ninth after the start.

Second Call - 10-9 1/2. This horse was tenth, 9 1/2 lengths behind the leader after three-sixteenths of a mile. The large figure indicates the horse's running position, the smaller figure is the margin behind the leader. If the horse had been in front at this point the smaller figure would indicate the margin in front of the second horse.

Third Call - 9-14. The horse was ninth, 14 lengths behind the leader after three-eighths of a mile.

Stretch Call - 9-14. The horse was ninth, 14 lengths behind the leader at this point. The stretch call is always made one furlong (one-eighth of a mile) from the finish line.

Finish - 9-10 3/4. The horse finished 9th, 10 3/4 lengths behind the winner. If the horse was the winner, the smaller figure would indicate the margin ahead of the second horse. A symbol after the finish means the horse finished in a deadheat with one or more horses for that position.

[shoes]

Thanks to everyone. After all of these years you would think I would know how to read a chart, but my concept before today was the same as Cherokee Scott's- ie the stretch was essentially once they straightened up for home. Think the point stands though that deep closers need to not leave themselves too much work to do.

[shoes]

Apr 24, 2024 16:07:09 GMT -5 1hooper said:

Gato had the lead when he went by me just inside the 3/16 pole. Snapped a photo.

I have fond memories of Gato- he was my first long shot winner and Eddie D one of my all time favorite jocks.

[1hooper]

That was my first Derby shoes and had a win ticket on him.

[mysaladdays]

Apr 24, 2024 16:24:24 GMT -5 shoes said:

 After all of these years you would think I would know how to read a chart, but my concept before today was the same as Cherokee Scott's- ie the stretch was essentially once they straightened up for home. Think the point stands though that deep closers need to not leave themselves too much work to do.

I also thought of "stretch run" as once entering the straight.


Where was Mine that Bird at the Third Call .... watching the overhead it sure as heck seemed like he was about 10 horses (more lengths than 10) behind until he got to about the middle of the straight?  


At any rate, your point about "deep closers not leaving themselves too much work to do."   Zenyatta taught me a little about that.  LMK if you think it holds any water.   

I don't think she was "closing on the horses" in the stretch.   She was actually "sprinting past them".   (There is a subtle difference.)   

So now, right or wrong I *do* take a look at their 6F, 6.5F and 7F races if there are any, just to see if a horse HAS sprinting speed to begin with.    For a classic distance router, not a lot of the can pull the "I'll just turn on my sprinting afterburners and do zoomies past everybody." 

It also requires that the horse just gallops along for 3/4 of the race with barely any energy expended....they are able to hold energy in abbeyance and have plenty left for the final furlong.    Since few horses can go at their top speed for an entire race, as we know. 

Some horses ARE able to close past tiring horses ..... but sprinting past  horses who are NOT tiring, like Zenyatta did aganist the boys in her 1st Breeders Cup Classic is not the same as that.......

... as you'd have a very hard time convincing me that horses Gio Ponti, Summer Bird, Einstein, Mine That Bird, Twice Over, Richards Kid, et. al. were all 'breathless' and running out of steam and therefore slowing down substantially in the stretch of a race that was 1-1/4 miles.   

[mysaladdays]

I did not see that with Mine that Bird. He wasn' sprinting past horses. He had been training at Sunland at high altitude and he had "lungs". But his closing wasn't like afterburners, more like he had plenty of oxygenated lung power to start closing past tiring horses.

[lure]

Apr 24, 2024 16:26:35 GMT -5 shoes said:

Apr 24, 2024 16:07:09 GMT -5 1hooper said:

Gato had the lead when he went by me just inside the 3/16 pole. Snapped a photo.

I have fond memories of Gato- he was my first long shot winner and Eddie D one of my all time favorite jocks.

Eddie D- The Head Waiter!

[merasmag]

as a guesstimate i would
call the stretch
wherever 7/8 of a race
is done
it changes and
u know it when
u c it

[mysaladdays]

Apr 24, 2024 16:26:35 GMT -5 shoes said:

Apr 24, 2024 16:07:09 GMT -5 1hooper said:

Gato had the lead when he went by me just inside the 3/16 pole. Snapped a photo.

I have fond memories of Gato- he was my first long shot winner and Eddie D one of my all time favorite jocks.

Well Shoes we never forget "those" do we. 

Whenever I ask myself how or why I got sucked into this TB horse racing universe,  I am reminded of just what a forever impression some of these horses have made on me.