|
|
Post by mysaladdays on Apr 15, 2024 14:08:10 GMT -5
Fiercness is either the best thing since sliced bread, or Bellamy Road.
At the moment, I can't use him for the win. Which is fine, since not using the chalk as a key has never hurt my wager.
Big Brown was able to do it because he was a horse on all kinds of drugs (winstrol). And we know Max Security (before he was DQed) was with a cheater/drugger.
Some horses did do it. Always Dreaming, Orb, Barbaro, Nyquist for instance. These horses were all very 1) CONSISTENT before they ran in the FL Derby AND they 2) had KY Derby and Preakness winners up close in their pedigrees.
Fierceness doesn't have either of those things. He only has a broodmare sire who ran 2nd in the Belmont.
And, he is far from Consistent.
Many of the ones who managed to do it above were consistent and/or undefeated going in. and if you go back to Monarchos and before, Thunder Gulch, Capt Blogit, et al they all had a race in between the FL Derby and KY Derby (as the FL derby was a bit earlier in the month back then), and that got them into racing shape for the KY Derby. (which was pretty much considered the standard, ie. you had to have a race between the FL Derby and the KY Derby).
White Abarrio was unable to do it.
Known Agenda couldn't do it.
Tiz the Law couldn't do it.
Audible couldn't do it.
Materiality couldn't do it.
Take Charge Indy couldn't do it.
Dialed In couldn't do it.
Ice Box couldn't do it.
Scat Daddy couldn't do it.
Friends Lake couldn't do it.
Empire Maker couldn't do it (and he had that good race in between the FL derby and Ky derby which is good IMHO but FL derby was 15 days or so earlier back then).
Harlans Holiday couldn't do it (and he had that good race in between the FL derby and Ky derby)
I also like to see a horse as a 3 year old match their highest speed number in their first 2 races as a 3 year old. Fierceness only showed us he could do that 1x. He is too inconsistent for my tastes for a Win in the KY Derby. Who knows who will show up on Derby Day. This will be a last minute decision on the day of, for me.
|
|
|
|
Post by cherokeescot on Apr 15, 2024 14:29:25 GMT -5
Tiz The Law actually had two races between the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby 😉
|
|
1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 7,444
|
Post by 1hooper on Apr 15, 2024 14:36:45 GMT -5
Tiz The Law actually had two races between the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby 😉 That covid year was brutal. |
|
|
|
Post by Badactor on Apr 15, 2024 15:42:04 GMT -5
|
|
5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,647
|
Post by 5wide on Apr 15, 2024 16:32:32 GMT -5
if he beaks on top, he wins, what he does if he doesn't is the huge question.
I'm thinking of going 2 ways wager wise.
a Fierceness tri over 5 horses
and a 5 horse horse ex box, excluding Fierceness.
|
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on Apr 15, 2024 19:08:32 GMT -5
if he beaks on top, he wins, what he does if he doesn't is the huge question. I don't handicap the KY Derby like a normal race. And, Churchill isn't the speed strip at GS or SA with 12 horses. But I left out the part where, aside from his inability to be consistent, he is a so-so gate horse. Which is pretty critical for the derby....and should have been solved early on. No elite horse should be breaking like he does. So he needs a good post and a good break. Give me an example of horses who ran the FL derby and then won the KY Derby, who were as "inconsistent" as Fierceness. Excessive Speed isn't enough.....Materiality had a 111 Beyer in the FL Derby, went to the KY Derby with a 3-3-0-0 and couldn't win the KY Derby. Winners Nyquist was 7-7-0-0 going into the KY Derby from the FL Derby, Big Brown was 3-3-0-0, Barbaro was 5-5-0-0, etc. Well without post positons this is probably a moot conversation anyway though. But I prefer a stalker/rally style for the race myself. At any rate, if I'm going to put uber chalk on top I'll probably just head over to Newmarket and put it on Aiden OBrien's City of Troy.  |
|
1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 7,444
|
Post by 1hooper on Apr 15, 2024 20:45:51 GMT -5
Throw out his Champagne. Mud, lunged, rushed and wrapped up. Irad never got near him again.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2024 15:52:03 GMT -5
Fiercness is either the best thing since sliced bread, or Bellamy Road this is funny 2 me as i was all over bellamy road that derby thank god i've learned things (i think) toss |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2024 16:32:08 GMT -5
lookin a little closer
i c his sire is
cityoflight
along with mitole
a futures bet
4 me
so i'm covered
|
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on Apr 17, 2024 18:08:59 GMT -5
Speed is dangerous in any race. But so is consistency. And so are *certain* pedigree influences that are in the mare side ala Bill Lathrop.
And so are the manner and overall way in which a horse is campaigned, and what and how early they are entered into races as youngsters. This isn't 1970 anymore. Also how CD has the track prepared. The year Medina won every horse who were "stamina bred" for a classic distance fell into the bottom of the ticket and pretty much off the board. (That was very very odd.) And whether the owners have derby fever and the trainer might feel differently. Post position is critical, as is horse being a good gate horse. Rider has to go with horse like "peanut butter and jelly" as well. Lots of variables.
Just saying I'm not going with a horse solely based on a "speed figure". A wager on Always Dreaming was worth a wager even though he didn't meet many (many) of my angles because he had good odds and was "consistent".
Fiercenss may win. Not saying he won't. Pletcher is 2 for 62, isn't he?. He gets them in the gate. If I could pair Fierceness with a really good longshot in an exacta I will bite.
Otherwise, for the kind of risk this kind of chaos race represents for my bankroll, I can certainly opt to find a race on the undercard, or play ascot instead. I went back to Fu Peg for much of my data.
I don't use programs, software, talking heads or any other methods. I don't buy or subscribe to products. If you can't trust your own capping I guess I don't see the point of being a "horse player". I am old fashioned capper who sits with coffee, pencil, the DRF and Brisnet PPs, after I watch every race a few times and also their works at CD. I enjoy trying to cap it. I do that every year.....but that doesn't mean I actually PLAY the race every year. I actually don't.
|
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on Apr 17, 2024 18:11:30 GMT -5
lookin a little closer i c his sire is cityoflight along with mitole Niether Mitole or City of Light won a TC race--- Quality Road never ran in any of the TC races, Gone West ran 6th in the Belmont. Mott never put Elusive Quality into any TC races. I do like the Mitole influences a lot better for sure. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2024 18:30:00 GMT -5
that's all i was
SAYING
was if fierceness
wins
my sire future bet wins
i don't do
pedigrees
and only look
at them in limited
circumstances
i'm just talking as
a better bettor
and in response to your most recent reply on this thread
i'm pretty sure
my ONLY derby bet
will be my traditional
exacta key box
it will pay or it won't
|
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on Apr 17, 2024 19:34:21 GMT -5
I think a traditional exacta box is a good value wager for this kind of race. Good luck to you.
I went back and looked at my notes for Always Dreaming when I was on the fence about him:
Always Dreaming - Empire Maker 2nd Kentucky Derby
Always Dreaming - Bodemeister 2nd Kentucky Derby, Preakness
KY Derby is a race where pedigree matters to me. I only use pedigrees in TC races and maiden routes though. i.e. "horses doing something they have never done for the first time" to see what their distance pedigree *implies* where you have little to no track performance to cover the situation at hand.
Hence, application for races like prep races are not very potent.
|
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2024 3:53:53 GMT -5
Was thinking about Fieceness again tonight and he may be a Harlan's Holiday type horse. Did great in a juvie type race, then holy bull and florida derby.......ran poorly in the KY Derby and Preakness.
|
|
|
|
Post by dblakers on Apr 30, 2024 11:21:25 GMT -5
Fierceness Lost to Hades who is not good. Lost to Domestic Product (Longshot). He beat Catalytic and Grand Mo the first both will be 50-1. He does what a lot of horses do when they can stalk or be on a moderate pace against inferior horses they run big figs and win by lots. When he has not gotten the lead or a cozy stalking position from the start he falters. This has been his MO. He has never ran in a field that was bigger than 9. Is it possible that he gets a cozy stalking trip or is on the lead setting a moderate pace? I highly doubt it in a 20 horse field, but I guess you never know. IF I am playing pick 6's,5's,4;s I would not let him beat me, but if we are talking win bet, exactas. I will try to beat him. Make him do something he has never done in a field way bigger than he has ever seen, on a track he has never ran on, most likely having to come from further off the pace than ever before, at low odds. I wish those who love him the best.
|
|
|
|
Post by bitowisdom on Apr 30, 2024 11:56:06 GMT -5
A future bet on Forever Young for his early races. Not totally enthralled with him. Fierceness just happen to run a field off their feet in the Florida Derby, and that alone does not make him a Secretariat, so to speak. Consistency obviously goes to Sierra Leone. He is battle tested at a young age. HONOR MARIE and Stronghold I find extremely interesting. What is left in their tanks for a mile and a quarter? Catching Freedom is the other guy I will use in exotics. My 2 cents.
|
|
