OP 3/14 - 3/17

[tims70ar]

Watching workouts from hotel room.
imgur.com/a/81IFqT2

[mysaladdays]

Nice view! Going to be a great day for longshots. My specialty. Expect an OT track.

Some of the chalk I've already looked at is in dire danger of not coming in like people think they will. I worked on the mud runners last night.

Going against Sun Thunder in R7 and Bradford in R9.  Both will take a lot of $$ I think? 

If you're still there thru the weekend things should dry up after Friday I think.

[mysaladdays]

R1: Cambray is a dangerous trainer, one that many don't know about, but I always play that trainer. Brought in a big longhot a few weeks ago who ran 2nd, so...rarely has an entry so they are well-intentioned..... Well I play Oaklawn daily so I kinda try to figure it out -- off to a good start I bet small to win a lot, that way I cover my (also small bet) losses.


COMPLETED:1f9b9-5489e OP #1 $2 Win/Place/Show 4 none $6.00
$24.60 + $18.60
COMPLETED:e565e-57aaf OP #1 $1 Exacta 4, 8, WT, 3, 6 none $4.00
$26.50 + $22.50


His Saturday Starter went off at 40-1 last time and I played that one too  --- Mr. Works is also running today in R9, was in this same race, he's a good wager today I think, too. 
www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=6&BorP=P&TID=OP&CTRY=USA&DT=02/11/2024&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB


Oaklawn is a true "value track" but you pretty much have to study it and play it a lot and keep notes and such to do well there, due to many shippers.  Last weekend I went against the prohibitive favorite who was 1/1  and went with a 30-1  instead (that #4):

COMPLETED:c4441-ddb3d OP #2 $0.10 Superfecta BX, 2, 4, 7, 9 none $2.40 
$760.14 + $757.74


You don' have to bet a lot to win money but it does also take some LUCK. 

[mysaladdays]

R3: I was pretty sure about the #5 once I saw the post parade and paddock. Juarez is one of my longshot trainers (note:  and is deadly if paired with Lukas for future reference in ROUTES not sprints)  and while this horse had not won at Oaklawn he had run 5 of 9 races on wet tracks. Once you can lock in on a horse that you believe in and it's not chalk, play it.
The 3 was "back quick" in 9 days. I do very well on noting those (learned that from The Chief and some of the other brilliant quick turn around trainers of yore at the NY tracks.)
My "always play the ARKY if only one in the race" worked on the #6.
Race came in 5-3-2-6

Not bad for a small investment:


COMPLETED:a89b9-ebbbc OP #3 $2 Win 5 none $2.00
$16.60 + $14.60
COMPLETED:e5333-04c3f OP #3 $1 Exacta 5, WT, 3, 4, 6, 8 none $4.00
$40.10 + $36.10
COMPLETED:ddd6c-aaf40 OP #3 $1 Exacta BX, 3, 5 none $2.00
$40.10 + $38.10
COMPLETED:f74d2-ef0d7 OP #3 $0.50 Trifecta BX, 2, 3, 5, 8 none $12.00
$129.30 + $117.30


Good longsshot in R9 besides Mr. Works is Doublespeak.  I have a soft spot for Wavering Monarchs.  Let's see if they bring it. 

[mysaladdays]

R5: California Swing is 10 years old now! He's very popular though. Lots of other oldsters in this one.
I like the #6 or the #2 but won't be playing this one, like that last R4 the favorite really wasn't one you would want to bet against.

OP has the track as fast, (but I think otherwise), but it appears to be dried out due to it being windy today.  Guess we'll see how the OT-ers do.  Unfortunately I will have to wait til R7 to see how Indian Gulch does.  I have not decided whether or not to use him but I like a few others more in that race.  If it starts raining I will not use him. 

[mysaladdays]

R7: Not playing this one (havn't seen any races I want to play since the last scores I posted) but I would probably fade the McPeek horse, Sun Thunder here (12) at 1-3/16th....I don't think this would be his best distance. 9, 6, 2 are good alternatives for the win spot.

If you want to go longshots, #5 and #8 if you dare.

I'm so-so on #11 and because I can't decide what to do with him is one reason I am passing the race.

Hope the #5 runs ITM though, this is a good longshot trainer who brought in Chapel Barn for me a few weeks back to win at 18-1.....but that was a horse I had been watching and had in my virtual stable to play and this one isn't.


EDIT:  so the #11 was scratched, solved the problem  LOL 

EDIT:  #14 won at 16-1.   Wasn't on my radar. 

I know what races to pass at least. 

14-12-6-8  (Sun Thunder ran 2nd and my longshot #8 completed the superfecta at 46-1)

[merasmag]

sounds like a great day...
CONGRATS!
i got to go to pt and get my neck and shoulder worked on
i probably couldn't be around horselets
might contaminate them
my lidocaine cream costs
my insurance
10bucks
a gram

[mysaladdays]

Mar 14, 2024 10:43:23 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Going against Sun Thunder in R7 and Bradford in R9.  Both will take a lot of $$ I think? 

If you're still there thru the weekend things should dry up after Friday I think.

Correct.  

[mysaladdays]

Mar 14, 2024 12:42:21 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

 Mr. Works is also running today in R9, was in this same race, he's a good wager today I think, too. 

Correct! 

He won. 

9   $8.00 $4.60 $3.20


The other horse I really liked, Doublecheck,  lost all hope when he had to go around another horse to avoid clipping heels, keep that one on your radar.  A Wavering Monarch broodmare sire those are hard to come by these days, and sire's sire Tapit,  a lovely pedigree IMHO and a decent breeder who does well in the midwest, including CDX, OP, etc.  Such is racing luck though.  He will prove out eventually. 

For the curious, I had played a 9-7-10-1 box but no way I saw that longshot #2 who ran 2nd 68-1... I had 3 of the 4 horses, but you learn not to play superfectas at Oaklawn, unless you're feel VERY lucky. 

[mysaladdays]

3/15 Friday

I will give a few longshots. It rained all night, as a matter of fact, it was a very "rough night" in Arkansas and I know Hot Springs Village got "hit" with a tornado which took out some trees, overturned a few cars, and did some damage.

Meanwhile, off to a good start. I loved the #4  in race 1 (and somewhat the #5 who I was wrong about) and my loyalty paid off and I bet the race in as many ways as I could but I only spent $19 to win about $140:   Came in 4-3-1-2

COMPLETED:2ee38-73005 OP #1 $2 Win/Place 4 none $4.00
$25.00 + $21.00
COMPLETED:10ccc-f70c9 OP #1 $0.50 Trifecta 3, 4, WT, 3, 4, 5, WT, 1, 2, 5, 6 none $7.00
$53.15 + $46.15
COMPLETED:5d6b2-257fa OP #1 $0.50 Trifecta 4, 5, WT, 3, WT, 1, 2 none $2.00
$53.15 + $51.15
COMPLETED:99fd0-be247 OP #1 $1 Exacta 4, 5, WT, 1, 2, 3 none $6.00
$32.40 + $26.40

[mysaladdays]

COMPLETED:b38c5-577b0 OP #1 $1 Double 4, 5, WT, 1, 7 none $4.00

$19.60 + $15.60

I loved Shacks Way (#3) who ran 2nd in R2 and forgot to post it but wasn't taking chances on an exotic in R2 which came in 7-3-4-5 and Shacks Way added a lot of value to the exotics at 8-1 and was 5th choice for the bettors.  



I have probably quit for the day, as when I get off to a good start things often go downhill from there and i like to KEEP my $$. 

Nevertheless, here are some Longshot bombs. Keep in mind these are mostly long shots........and use accordingly. The track is an absolute mud pit, but I found something to like about each of these. I rarely if ever wager on horses before I see them in paddock or post parade, so my winning exotics usually reflect my "eye" for picking right. I don't often play just win or place so most of these below are merely suggestions to put in your exotics to run "in the money"

R3) Velikiy
R4) The maiden claiming, mostly a bunch of "arky" breds and many are dropping in class, so can get tricky. The beaten favorite, Auden probably has this, but I like Chadron (5-1), Lead Foot (6-1), Bourbon on Fire (7/2). Longsot BOMB: Prince is My Boy (12-1)
R5) Third Watch (20-1) Waldrip (20-1). Diordoro probably has this in the bag with Ala Carte and I usually pass races where he has a horse, but couldn't resist these.
R6) Interesting race w/3 year old maidens...anyone can jump up, esp. in this slop, since many are unraced. There are some Arrogate, Uncle Mo, Oscar Performance, Practical Joke, etc. A friend of mine likes the turfer This is Uscar. I like Indy Charge and Duke of Duval.
R7) Heir to Greatness (8-1) and bomber AE horse Point Blank with Fires. I like when an AE horse makes the field.
R9) I like Chez Whiz (10-1) (has a good turn of foot in stretch when I saw him at track) and Hit Scene (9/2). Twenty to Park and Midight Taxes are favored though.

[mysaladdays]

Mar 15, 2024 13:20:09 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

R4) The maiden claiming, mostly a bunch of "arky" breds and many are dropping in class, so can get tricky. The beaten favorite, Auden probably has this, but I like Chadron (5-1), Lead Foot (6-1), Bourbon on Fire (7/2). Longsot BOMB: Prince is My Boy (12-1)

The chalk #10 Auden got off to a bad start, and ran 3rd.  I faded him as chalk is never a sure thing on a track this sloppy. 

One of my longshots, Chadron (#3), won and went off a little higher than his M/L, at 6-1.  
3  $14.80 $7.00 $3.80

My longshot bomb, Prince is My Boy (#8), almost got into the trifecta, but lost ground and contact with the field at the very end.  But, he ran 4th to make up the superfecta at 18-1!!  Guesss nobody else liked him.  I will play him back at some point. 

The #4 Our Heavenly Gift was a scratch yesterday, and ran 2nd, always good to play those back.

3-4-10-8

[mysaladdays]

R3 and R5 NADA but the #10 chalky (9/5) winner Southern Sunset in R5 w/McPeek looked like he was going to fall over onto the rail, he was so wobbly-legged from 1-1/16th.  Hard tryer. 

I did what I said and have not played any races since R1 and R2 where I won money.  Going to just watch the rest of the day and take notes.   Notes are how horses end up in my virtual stable notifications if I see something I like. 

50 cent trifectas have paid between $30 and $80 so far today at Oaklawn.  "The value place". 

[mysaladdays]

Mar 15, 2024 13:20:09 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

R6) Interesting race w/3 year old maidens...anyone can jump up, esp. in this slop, since many are unraced. There are some Arrogate, Uncle Mo, Oscar Performance, Practical Joke, etc. A friend of mine likes the turfer This is Uscar. I like Indy Charge and Duke of Duval.

The son of Oscar Performance, who my friend liked, This is Uscar, won at 9-1.  Paid $21 to win. 

The one I liked, Duke of Duval, ran 3rd at 9/2. 

The chalk #6 ran 4th.   I really couldn't figure out why he was the favorite and still haven't, but Brisnet PPs had him first so I guess the public went with him. 

[docd]

3/15 OP7
10 Fetches Brahm .....in coming!!!
looked ok for the first half but needs to run the entire race what you expect for 68/1

[mysaladdays]

Mar 15, 2024 13:20:09 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

R7) Heir to Greatness (8-1) and bomber AE horse Point Blank with Fires. I like when an AE horse makes the field.

A real nightmare of a race and a pace collapse and an inquiry as well.    Point Blank (#13) was out among the front runners and then went backwards. I will play him back on either a dry track or in a shorter race and with a better rider.   At 57-1 I was getting excited.

Heir To Greatness won.  He had the best speed at the distance, but his odds went down from the orig M/L 8-1 (which made him a "longshot")  to 3-1 (which I don't consider a longshot). 

But a win is a win. 
7  $8.00 $5.00 $3.80

[mysaladdays]

Mar 15, 2024 15:52:10 GMT -5 docd said:

3/15 OP7
10 Fetches Brahm .....in coming!!!
looked ok for the first half but needs to run the entire race what you expect for 68/1

If I had played the race, I was going #13 and #6.  (Point Blank and Chrome Run).   Both were running side by side at the front in earlier part of the race and both were 57-1.....so I was getting excited.   But the pace collapse did them in .  I acutally did take a look at your horse earlier in the day because he was "the other Jinx Fires horse" but decided against him.   The race was a nightmare and I would not have bet it even if someone GIFTED me the money.  By the way, Matejka is a good trainer, new to the OP scene and his horses are well placed.  I have him in my virtual stable. That one ran 2nd.  

[mysaladdays]

Mar 15, 2024 13:20:09 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

R9) I like Chez Whiz (10-1) (has a good turn of foot in stretch when I saw him at track) and Hit Scene (9/2). Twenty to Park and Midight Taxes are favored though.

Midnight Taxes won.  



I am happy and feel I did okay, esp. considering the depolorable condition the track was in.  Had a couple of good ideas. Will try the weekend when drier. 

[mysaladdays]

Of note on Saturday (I'm taking the day off) R10. Mott has Rocket Can back at Oaklawn.

If you remember he did awful in the Arkansas Derby. (which I knew ahead of time, having watched him have an anxiety meltdown in the paddock ---- while he was taking all the money as the Favorite that day and ended up running 4th under Alvarado). Few people saw that unless they were at the paddock or watching the paddock feed and not using him in my trifecta made a winning day for me.

This time he gets Pratt. (I have no idea why trainers don't use the Oaklawn "hot jockeys", these other guys come to Oaklawn so rarely and aren't rding Oaklawn every day). Nevertheless Pratt was on Angel of Empire that fateful day he won, so maybe he can do it again.

THis is the race that King Russell (deep closer) and Reincarnate ran 2nd and 3rd. But none of the horses in this race have even run a graded stakes besides Harlocap, and Rocket Can has run 4. There are a number of late pace horses in this race though, like Harlocap, Alejandro, Lucky Boss and Heroic Move, so this could be interesting. Rocket Can should be able to win this purely based on Class but we shall see. He ran 9th in the KY Derby last year.

However this is only an 8F OC 62500n2x for 4 year olds.    

Longshot bombers:
Race 10: Lucky Boss #5  (10-1) or Secret Pocket #4 (15-1). 
Race 11  longshot bomber Queen Mallard #1  (15-1)

[mysaladdays]

Drove over to the track, mostly to meet my accountant to hand over my treasures, then came home, because it was too crowded for me, was swarming. Will go tomorrow instead. Can't even stand at the paddocks its like 4 people deep. I did play R2 avoiding the #6 and #1 chalk that everyone else was using, using one of my longshot trainer and jockey plays. DeLeCruz was doing very poorly at beginning of meet but has since woken up, Timothy Martin brings in a lot of good longer shots.......I always find it interesting just how wrong Brisnet and other PPs gets Oaklawn ......that is why people lose there. I think you gotta know the track and colonies to do well here. I even heard one of the attendants at the community desk last week commiserating w/a out-of-towner guy how "I can't win at OP" after he told her that he got every horse wrong for the entire day LOL It is true that Weekend warriors can't win if they don't do "Oaklawn homework" which requires following the whole meet, really.

THe whole card is a real headbanger today, though. Not expecting to do well going forward but will select a few to play

The #5 paid $21.20 to win. I barely got my wager in in time, saw him at the very last minute, got shut out for the win bet on him though.

COMPLETED:0d11a-22f76 OP #2 $1 Exacta BX, 5, 9 none $2.00
$61.80 + $59.80
COMPLETED:44f69-f7337 OP #2 $2 Place 9 none $2.00
$7.60 + $5.60

[mysaladdays]

Race 4: I was asking myself before the race went off if you had to be out of your mind to play this one with so much speed.

Another Timothy Martin #2 who went off at 31-1, I really thought he'd do better to SHOW, but he ran 4th. So I just used him in a superfecta with the other "usual suspects" and it worked.  Without him it would have been way too chalky and not worth a wager for me since I wager so small. This race was hard, had me banging my head against the wall until I made a decision. 

COMPLETED:2aeb1-dfc87 OP #4 $2 Show 2 none $2.00
$0.00 - $2.00
COMPLETED:75567-743bc OP #4 $0.10 Superfecta BX, 2, 3, 6, 9 none $2.40
$47.42 + $45.02

[mysaladdays]

Race 5: Taxed #5 is sort of a foregone conclusion, so I won't wager this race. But Lukas/Juarez combo always dangerous (#1) and what is Scott Young doing at Oaklawn, this is a once-in-a-blue-moon entry (#9) maybe a good longshot bomber for exotics

[mysaladdays]

Mar 16, 2024 14:01:51 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Race 5: Taxed #5 is sort of a foregone conclusion, so I won't wager this race. But Lukas/Juarez combo always dangerous (#1) and what is Scott Young doing at Oaklawn, this is a once-in-a-blue-moon entry (#9) maybe a good longshot bomber for exotics

HA!



Was right about #5 (the foregone conclusion winner) and that #9 with scott young (which just leaped out at me for reasons above)...he had a vry nice horse a number of years ago so I started following him, but him bringing his filly to Oaklawn was a killer good clue. .



But that #9 ran 2nd, so I was right about a good longshot



and the Lukas/Juarez dangerous combo ran 3rd. Easy trifecta if you played it my way.



5-9-1-8



$0.50 Trifecta 5/9/1 $46.25


5 $7.60 $3.80 $2.60



9 . $7.00 $4.40



1 . . $3.00





Hope I'm helping anyone playing the track today!

[1hooper]

Well done.

[mysaladdays]

I did not bet this race.   My longshots ran out. 

Rocket Can pulled off the win.  He's still got it.  He still seems a bit nervous in that very echo-ey paddock at Oaklawn.  Its recessed, and people hanging over the bars looking down on 3 sides, very anxiety producing for some horses I think as the activity and noise is pretty high. 

The place horse #3 Tapsational ....Bealmear's agent is Robby Albarado, he gets a lot of good rides and Jose is talented enough to make something out of them  a very talented rider, not to be dismissed...... but here I think not many people at all would have had that horse running 2nd.  I didn't find anyone in my group who did.    As for 3rd place,  had a feeling that the "other" Asmussen horse, Alejandro (Curlin) was the one well meant here not Harlocap.   Was the Best Speed at Distance w/ a ton of practice on the Oaklawn track 5 ITM for 7 races there, 6 of 7 at the distance.  I was sorely tempted when seeing 23-1 though.

[mysaladdays]

Mar 16, 2024 2:32:55 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Race 11  longshot bomber Queen Mallard #1  (15-1)

Ran 3rd at 28-1.

Show $7.00

[mysaladdays]

3/17

Lots of routes today.

R8: No idea who will win this, as it's a weird race.

There are 2 Willis Horton horses here, Ben Diesel (#3) and Infiltrator (#6).
I'm going with the longer priced #6 to run in the money----gets Oaklawn's top rider and is 3 for 5 at Oaklawn.
Ben Diesel is a more recognizable name and will take more money than he should. He has trouble winning.

Ben Franklin (McPeek with Leparoux) #11 looks good, as does the #9 that Asmussen has with his son riding.

Longshot bombers to run ITM: #4 (20-1) Mr. Thunderstruck. Could come running at the end.
Nullabor (#1 20-1) has been trying hard and has done absolutely awful at Oaklawn, tends to be a bit too keen but has run against some stiff competetion (Sun Thunder, Archie the Giza who won at big odds on Thursday, B Minor, King Russell). Trainer may need to drop him in class, but I"m giving him another shot here to at least make the superfecta with that E8 running style and has turned in some good works of late. That running style isn't great in routes, but I'll go out on a limb here and show some support for him.

EDIT:  Forget this race,  #1, 2, 5 and 6 are all scratched.  I will PASS betting this. 

[Badactor]

[mysaladdays]

Mar 17, 2024 9:26:20 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

3/17

Lots of routes today.

R8: No idea who will win this, as it's a weird race.

There are 2 Willis Horton horses here, Ben Diesel (#3) and Infiltrator (#6).
I'm going with the longer priced #6 to run in the money----gets Oaklawn's top rider and is 3 for 5 at Oaklawn.
Ben Diesel is a more recognizable name and will take more money than he should. He has trouble winning.

Ben Franklin (McPeek with Leparoux) #11 looks good, as does the #9 that Asmussen has with his son riding.

Longshot bombers to run ITM: #4 (20-1) Mr. Thunderstruck. Could come running at the end.
Nullabor (#1 20-1) has been trying hard and has done absolutely awful at Oaklawn, tends to be a bit too keen but has run against some stiff competetion (Sun Thunder, Archie the Giza who won at big odds on Thursday, B Minor, King Russell). Trainer may need to drop him in class, but I"m giving him another shot here to at least make the superfecta with that E8 running style and has turned in some good works of late. That running style isn't great in routes, but I'll go out on a limb here and show some support for him.

 

EDIT: Forget this race, #1, 2, 5 and 6 are all scratched. I will PASS betting this.  no value in it now that 2 of my longshots have scratched

TRACK IS RATED:  Muddy

[mysaladdays]

Mar 17, 2024 10:49:20 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Mar 17, 2024 9:26:20 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

3/17


R8: No idea who will win this, as it's a weird race.

There are 2 Willis Horton horses here, Ben Diesel (#3) and Infiltrator (#6).
I'm going with the longer priced #6 to run in the money----gets Oaklawn's top rider and is 3 for 5 at Oaklawn.
Ben Diesel is a more recognizable name and will take more money than he should. He has trouble winning.

Ben Franklin (McPeek with Leparoux) #11 looks good, as does the #9 that Asmussen has with his son riding.

 

EDIT: Forget this race, #1, 2, 5 and 6 are all scratched. I will PASS betting this.  no value in it now that 2 of my longshots have scratched

TRACK IS RATED:  Muddy

Following up.  The #11 did win. 
The #9 ran 3rd. 

Ben Diesel (#3), before the scratches, was the M/L Favorite.
After all the scratches he still went off as the 2nd favorite with the bettors at post.
He ran out of the money. 

He has run at Oaklawn 12 times w/out a win. (12 of his 17 races have been at Oaklawn) . 
He is now 17-1-4-2 .   

His single win was his maiden race at CDX when Dallas Stewart was his trainer back in 2021. Been thru a few others since then (Lukas, Milligan, not sure who else) but sure hope they figure this one out. 

Because, A lovely horse who tries hard and at one time was headed to the KY Derby........... place him in a race he can win.  I think it is demoralizing for a horse when they haven't won a race since 2021 and----he probably doesn't even remember what that feels like.