FG- Risen Star Stakes 2/17

[tenfurlongs]

Entries:

www.equibase.com/static/entry/FG021724USA14-EQB.html


PPs:

www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ChadCBrown/BROWN+CHAD+C/9999/summary.html


I like the idea of a 9 furlong race in February, to weed out some of the pretenders. Last three winners, since they extended the distance to 1 1/8mi, were:

Mandaloun- 12// 6- 1- 1  $2,096,052  second* in Kentucky Derby, won Haskell (GI).

Epicenter- 11// 6- 3- 0  $2,940,639  second in Kentucky Derby, won Travers (GI).

Angel of Empire- 9// 4- 1- 2  $1,489,375  third in Kentucky Derby, won Arkansas Derby (GI). Back in training with Brad Cox at FG.


The 2024 field has among its twelve entrants-

Honor Marie (Honor Code), the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) winner.

Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), the Remsen (GII) 2nd, owned by the Coolmore lads (FTSAUG2022 $2.3M).

Hall of Fame (Gun Runner), just broke maiden here by ten lengths last month, also owned by Coolmore (FTSAUG2022 $1.4M).

Catching Freedom (Constitution), the Smarty Jones (Listed) winner.

Track Phantom (Quality Road), wire-to-wire winner of the Lecomte (GIII).





TW

[spiderjohn]

Asmussen 1-2?

[Badactor]

Feb 11, 2024 13:31:02 GMT -5 thebobtailnag said:

Beware Dell, Moonlight is also entered in race 3.

Thanks for the heads-up... hmmmm.
FTL if he goes in the 3rd. No Lasix if it's the Risen Star.

RACE 3   #5 Moonlight (L1)  J R Velazquez 119 T A Pletcherr
RACE 14 #5 Moonlight          F Geroux       122 T A Pletcher

I like #7 Tuscan Sky, Race 3. L Saez          119 T A Pletcher

Interesting, to me anyway. There's an angle here somewhere.

[longshot]

Saturday's Risen Star

#1 Tizzy Indy --------Desormeaux---------Graham
#2 Awesome Ruta-------Foster-------------Murill
#3 Honor Marie--------Beckman------------Bejarano
#4 Sierra Leone-------Chad Brown---------Gaffalione
#5 Moonlight----------Pletcher-----------Geroux
#6 Real Men Violin----McPeek-------------Hernandez
#7 Hall of Fame-------Asmussen-----------Santana
#8 Catching Freedom---Cox----------------Saez
#9 Cardinale----------Pletcher-----------Prat
#10 Resilience--------Mott---------------Velazquez
#11 Track Phantom-----Asmussen-----------Rosario
#12 Bee Dancer--------Stewart------------Lanerie

[Deleted]

i have futures on the 4 and 6
i think that's it

[mysaladdays]

Not playing because rain and FG isn't a track I know. Most Risen Star races I’ve looked at were on dry fast tracks.

But, I like to do these write ups, w/details of stuff I notice, just to see how accurate my pre-race thoughts are, and love immersing in historical details. Due to chances of sloppy, it may be an exercise in futility. Picks mean nothing to me unless I know the reasoning why people make their picks, so I try to be conscientious in presenting why I like, or don’t like, certain horses.

Wanting to see how these handle the distance, like the Fipke bred (Bee Dancer...can he stretch out? ). If its wet, I think Moonlight will opt for R3. Sierra Leone blew by him from 10th to 1st, from the 6f call to the 1 mile call, as did Drum Roll Please to get 3rd, then came back to win next race.   Moonlight came out of the gate well but once out he seemed to lose momentum in the Street Sense Stakes.  Not ready yet, IMHO.

Looking at past Risen Stars, some angles may be of no importance to you. I'm going to list them anyway:

1) The KY Derby will be lasix-free. 6 horses who have never received lasix:
Track Phantom
Real Men Violin
Sierra Leone
Honor Marie
Moonlight
Catching Freedom

2) Horses who have carried 122 in a route:
Honor Marie
Tizzy Lizzy
Track Phantom
Hall of Fame
Real Men Violin

3) Horses who have carried 122 in a non route:
Bee Dancer

4) Foal dates
Honor Marie is a May foal. All the others are older (feb/march). I look for a horse like him to jump up later in the prep season. Will watch this one going forward, seems to enjoy the Churchill surface.  Might make it into the trifecta, not sure. 

5) Moving up in Class
Very few winners of this race were moving up in class and most didn’t even hit the board. This is somewhat potent but for a Fast Track only. We had Harlocap, Determinedly, Victory Formation, Single Ruler, Shaq Diesel, Dolphus, Bistraya, Its All Relevant, Candy My Boy, Zapperini, Tawny Port, Bodock, Piioneer of Medina. Those last are interesting cases: Tawny Port, Bodock and Pioneer of Medina All 3 won their last 2 races back to back, were moving up in class, but only Pioneer of Medina made the superfecta by running 4th). Tawny Port ran 5th. Zapperini ran 5th.

In this year’s rendition of Moves Up In Class, we have Hall of Fame, Resilience, Catching Freedom, but none of them won their last 2 races back to back, but they all DID win their last race. So these are big question marks for me and could do well. IN THE RAIN, I would probably give the nod to Hall of Fame. This had me scratching my head and one of the many reasons I am not playing but only watching this race. .
For whatever reason, Catching Freedom strikes me as the Victory Formation that Cox had in this race in 2023, albeit he had a very wide post (13) which was hard to overcome.

6) Sharp 5F work or Sharp 6F work.
(Nobody in this year’s race has a sharp 6f Work. That worked for Mark Valeski who ran 2nd in 2012.) Sharp 5F work has been a potent stat from what I could see for horses running in the top 4. It didn’t work for Optimizer or Mr. Bowling. But this was a potent stat from what I could see for horses running in the top 4.

7) Running styles
If you remember, E8. Bistraya, Hero of Order, Epicenter, Harlocap, Victory Formation all had this running style. (Track Phantom). 

8) Potent angles - horses who ran ITM
a) sharp 5F work
b) ran 2nd in last race but won the race before that.
I would put any horses who fulfil those 2 angles into my superfecta. But those results were on a fast dry track.


I may try it out as a trifecta and a 0.10 superfecta though if I decide to play the race, which I probably won’t. We are looking for Forevamo (12-1 ML) or Sun Thunder (15-1 M/L) here, though, right? Maybe Bee Dancer with that Monster broodmare sire, and Dallas Stewart who who scary for longshots at FG. or even Awesome Ruda. Who knows.

I am liking Sierra Leone, Cardinale, Real Men Violin, Awesome Ruda.  Honorable mention gos to Hall of Fame who appears to have good mud stats in pedigree.

As for watching the race, Bee Dancer interests me the most though with that BMS but very green.

[spiderjohn]

Don’t like SIERRA LEONE — if u watch his races, he is all over the place(maybe blinks will help?) and his action is like a horse that won’t be around long —

Don’t like HONOR MARIE — last couple of works look like he is going the wrong way — work mate is on the card also in a maiden race I think — like that one

watch their races — watch their works — pay attention to what matters saladdays lol

The asmussens seem well meant — and a couple of others…..

jmo

[5wide]

Real men violin jumps out with his win over Track Phantom in the slop if the track comes up wet. McPeek has been hot also. I still like HOF, so odds will decide how the money is spent.

[1hooper]

Spider, what don't you like about his action? Front? I have not seen a head on of him.

[cherokeescot]

They don’t always get it right but I assume Joel Rosario had the choice of Track Phantom and Hall of Fame and went with the former .

[spiderjohn]

Hoop—watch the head on of his last race—front and back left— granted it was on a shaky surface. Also he zig zagged in both starts.
Blinks might help—will have to be clear outside—he might hold together for a while imo

[1hooper]

Paddler left front. Was almost kicking Dornoch in the Remsen stretch.
Must have walked straight at the yearling sale for $2.3 mil.

[mysaladdays]

Feb 17, 2024 7:51:38 GMT -5 spiderjohn said:

— pay attention to what matters saladdays 

I did.

Watching a horse run on one track against one group of horses in a field is not the same as how they will run on a different track, against a different field of horses........esp if the track isn't in the same condition.   

Sharp works, running style, mud stats, drugs, moving up or down in class, and pedigree, matter to me.    

Sierra hangs but has excellent mud pedigree....and they are trying blinks on him now;

Something I forgot to put in my write up:   did you notice how many winners had a prep in January as a 3 yr old, going all the way back to even before when Gun Runner won this race? 

TAnway, they all have their own unique "problems".  These are babies to my mind, and trainers are still "fiddling" with them.    Real Men is always a bridesmaid; Honor is still maturing; many of them do not work at FG; etc.   Thats what prep races are for.......to get the kinks out. 

Will not disagree about Asmussen horses.  His horses are ALWAYS well meant.   His stats at Oaklawn are 20.14% win percentage.  McPeeks is 23.08, and Cox is around 17.98%. 

[mysaladdays]

Feb 17, 2024 10:59:42 GMT -5 spiderjohn said:

Hoop—watch the head on of his last race—front and back left— granted it was on a shaky surface. Also he zig zagged in both starts.
Blinks might help—will have to be clear outside—he might hold together for a while imo

Brown adding blinkers, a new jock, and 4f works suggests he may be trying to get him involved early, and change his style to move him closer to the lead. 

I'm thinking he must be doing long gallop-outs at Payson, which we are not privy to.  

Crooked legs don't bother me a lot, Vekoma and others have done okay.  Guess we'll see.

He and the other horses have been green in their races, which highlights need for improvements, and it's only Feb.   I still believe Sierra Leone has innate talent,, that huge stride from the 6F call, 10th to 1st at the mile call.......seems like his legs work just fine.    

I am sure Brown knows he has a lot of work to do, and that Sierra is green, but he just may love that long stretch at FG. 

[mysaladdays]

So I see Moonlight remained in the Risen Star. R3 would have been a cakewalk, there's only 3 horses left in the race, they all scratch out LOL

If he was looking for a win, that would have been it but I think he wants to go  for prep race points.......

[5wide]

Feb 17, 2024 7:51:38 GMT -5 spiderjohn said:

Don’t like HONOR MARIE — last couple of works look like he is going the wrong way — work mate is on the card also in a maiden race I think — like that one





jmo

Thanks for the heads up on Drip !

[ozzy]

Never expected Hall of Fame to be 3-1. Mott horse at 15-1
Is the bet without a doubt!

[1hooper]

Sierra Leone yearling video. Watch the head on.

[mysaladdays]

Feb 17, 2024 7:25:30 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

1) The KY Derby will be lasix-free. 6 horses who have never received lasix:
Track Phantom
Real Men Violin
Sierra Leone
Honor Marie
Moonlight
Catching Freedom

2) Horses who have carried 122 in a route:
Honor Marie
Tizzy Lizzy
Track Phantom
Hall of Fame
Real Men Violin

3) Horses who have carried 122 in a non route: checks out- useful in a route race but probably not a sprint
Bee Dancer

4) Foal dates - Checks out -- horse is too young at this stage, maybe next prep race though or can peak for the actual Derby
Honor Marie is a May foal. All the others are older (feb/march). I look for a horse like him to jump up later in the prep season. Will watch this one going forward, seems to enjoy the Churchill surface.  Might make it into the trifecta, not sure. 

5) Moving up in Class - checks out -- none of the horses moving up in class won the race.  I was pretty sure about this after looking thru countless Risen Star races of the past.      Chasing Freedom ran 3rd BUT I believe that is because he fulfilled the "sharp 5F work" noted in #6.  So he did qualify on that angle to hit the board.......but still did not win. 
Very few winners of this race were moving up in class and most didn’t even hit the board. This is somewhat potent but for a Fast Track only. We had Harlocap, Determinedly, Victory Formation, Single Ruler, Shaq Diesel, Dolphus, Bistraya, Its All Relevant, Candy My Boy, Zapperini, Tawny Port, Bodock, Piioneer of Medina. Those last are interesting cases: Tawny Port, Bodock and Pioneer of Medina All 3 won their last 2 races back to back, were moving up in class, but only Pioneer of Medina made the superfecta by running 4th). Tawny Port ran 5th. Zapperini ran 5th.

In this year’s rendition of Moves Up In Class, we have Hall of Fame, Resilience, Catching Freedom, but none of them won their last 2 races back to back, but they all DID win their last race. So these are big question marks for me and could do well. IN THE RAIN, I would probably give the nod to Hall of Fame. This had me scratching my head and one of the many reasons I am not playing but only watching this race. .
For whatever reason, Catching Freedom strikes me as the Victory Formation that Cox had in this race in 2023, albeit he had a very wide post (13) which was hard to overcome.

6) Sharp 5F work or Sharp 6F work.  Checks out - only 2 horses had this, one was Chasing Freedom.  The other was a 99-1 longshot (Awesome Ruda 
(Nobody in this year’s race has a sharp 6f Work. That worked for Mark Valeski who ran 2nd in 2012.) Sharp 5F work has been a potent stat from what I could see for horses running in the top 4. It didn’t work for Optimizer or Mr. Bowling. But this was a potent stat from what I could see for horses running in the top 4. (I wanted to be able to use Sharp 4F work, but over all the years I looked at the PPs for this race, it just wasn't potent enough, since many horses had that, plus most of the ones who did it seemed like the trainer was still trying to solve problems with them, i.e get them to be more in contention/up closer.   I guess you could include sharp 4F though since Sierra Leone and Resilence both had this and ran in the superfecta. )


7) Running styles - checks out, but you have to be track phantom or epicenter level
If you remember, E8. Bistraya, Hero of Order, Epicenter, Harlocap, Victory Formation all had this running style. (Track Phantom). 

8) Potent angles - horses who ran ITM  -- 
a) sharp 5F work- Chasing Freeom; checks out
b) ran 2nd in last race but won the race before that. Checks out;  Sierra Leone had this pattern.  
I would put any horses who fulfil those 2 angles into my superfecta. But those results were on a fast dry track.

I will use this template for next year's race.   It worked for the winner and some horses who ran ITM. 

[docd]

I noticed the significant paddling during the warm up.I also didn't care for his gate walking back to the winners circle.Left front lame. Tremendous effort for the win but how far can he go like that.I bet Catching Freedom.He could move forward off that effort.Luis went a little early. 
GL

[spiderjohn]

SIERRA LEONE won it
Did what he had to do— stayed closer early, went outside and finished with enough run to pass TRACK PHANTOM— the others were just in the race

Wrong about that one— no sign of marie

[mysaladdays]

Feb 18, 2024 8:00:43 GMT -5 spiderjohn said:

SIERRA LEONE won it
Did what he had to do— stayed closer early

Probably why all those (many) 4F works,  instead of 5F works.  When I saw that on the PPs I was thinking to myself:  "trainer is trying to solve a problem". 

At this stage in the trail I watch to see what they think their horse's weaknesses are....I try to figure that out.   


Sierra Leone was the ONLY horse with nothing but 4F works, except for Cardinale.    For a 1-1/8 mile race that did stand out to me.   Esp in the past many trainers have even used 6F works for a long race.  But at least 5F usually.   Perhaps both need to be "more involved early on" is maybe what trainers were working on.   I will watch to see if this happens for Cardinale next out, although he ran pretty well early on, just needs to build stamina