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Post by mysaladdays on Jan 30, 2024 20:43:08 GMT -5
I don't mind saying I've been tearing it up at OP in the slop. I started specializing in that a few years ago, trying to figure it out, even though it needs to be re-tweaked every time they reconstitute the track. But races in slop and maiden races, always have the best odds, esp. if the fields are larger with 12 horses.
I always tell newbies to learn ONE track and know it like the back of your hand.....and everything about the trainer and jockey colonies, go over the results at the end of every day and make notes about what worked and what didn't. Well, as you can imagine, that is actually a lot of work. And that's why I only do one track.
I took $20 to the races this weekend and made well over $1,000 only betting $2 w/p/s, 0.50 trifectas, and 0.10 superfectas. Yea, I'm a cheapskate bettor, but my thing is to bet a little to win a lot.
I NEVER place a wager until I see the post parade and/or the paddock behaviors. This is probably why "picks ahead of time" don't work out well for me. One year I tested that theory, one day a week for a year: I made picks before the races started for the day; then I made picks after watching the horses in paddock/post parade. The latter was clearly the winning move so I have stuck with that.
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,765
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Post by 1hooper on Jan 30, 2024 21:03:01 GMT -5
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Post by merasmag on Jan 31, 2024 4:22:49 GMT -5
i'm knot good at analzying post parades
(i think)
it leads me to overanalyze
unless a horselet is doing backflips
i (usually) won't change my pre-race opinion
butt now it don't matter and in a TC race
it REALLY won't
But i am glad you're killing it!
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Post by merasmag on Jan 31, 2024 4:25:03 GMT -5
i will always lean towards a
"best-turned-out"
becuz they know better than i
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Post by unusualpete on Jan 31, 2024 12:22:23 GMT -5
That's a great brag and one that reads 100% true. You're leaving out one section of the cast though. The owner colony should be included w jockeys and trainers as a field of expertise. Oaklawn is this player's favorite track not named Golden Gate Fields(I will miss it). Started there in 2019 and no track can compete. CAW doesn't hit you as often. Prices are generous. It's Value Village. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jan 31, 2024 13:49:41 GMT -5
i will always lean towards a "best-turned-out" becuz they know better than i That will be hard with Asmussen on the grounds. I've watched his horse in the paddocks for 15++ years and from the lowliest claimer to the top stakes horse, his horses will loook like they went to the beauty parlor.......he has a crack team of groomers in his barn, for sure, and I like it, cuz it shows a lot of respect for he horses. They are always braided up and looking so pretty... |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jan 31, 2024 14:05:35 GMT -5
That's a great brag and one that reads 100% true. You're leaving out one section of the cast though. The owner colony should be included w jockeys and trainers as a field of expertise. Oaklawn is this player's favorite track not named Golden Gate Fields(I will miss it). Started there in 2019 and no track can compete. CAW doesn't hit you as often. Prices are generous. It's Value Village. Value Village for sure. I can barely play other tracks now because odds. As you know Cella didn't like CAWs and was one of the few track in the US (I think Tampa was another one) who didn't even allow them into the pools at all. (I don't know what kinds of deals they have now but as you say it would be negligible as they probably offer them very unappealing discounts). But Oaklawn was like that even dozens of years before 2013, as well as after: Times Record 2015: "At Oaklawn Park, CRWs are on a hit list. “We simply refuse to allow them into our pools,” Bobby Geiger, Oaklawn’s director of wagering and simulcast, said in an Email. He said Oaklawn realized more than 10 years ago that “these parasites would kill the grandstand player and ultimately the wagering component of the sport, so we eliminated them from our distribution portfolio. “They’ve tried to sneak into our pools on multiple occasions … but we constantly monitor our pools for the activity,” he said. “WE ALWAYS CATCH THEM. The practice is so egregious and unfair to the other patrons in the pools that is impossible to disguise.” Even as recently as 2017 Bloodhorse stated that in last paragraph of article: "Unlike most U.S. tracks, Oaklawn does not allow computer-robotic wagering on its races." www.swtimes.com/story/sports/columns/2015/05/03/king-oaklawn-takes-aim-at/26342038007/ANd yes, owner colony. Thanks for reminder. There's also a few breeders and breeder/owners that I follow and the trainers who use them. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jan 31, 2024 14:28:56 GMT -5
I'm not telling anyone anything they don't already know about knowing/learning the circuits you stick with. Some of you are specialists at SAR, DELMAR, SA, and the NYRA tracks. I am not.
Seeing Rocket Can have an anxiety attack in the paddocks last year saved me having to use him in the AR Derby and he took a lot of $$ at 4-1. No having to put him on my trifecta helped a lot. IF ou are not at the paddocks watching you wouldn't know about that, which is why I don't wager until I see the paddock and post parades. He was a real mess that day.
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Post by unusualpete on Jan 31, 2024 14:42:40 GMT -5
Re: CAW &, " WE ALWAYS CATCH THEM." Debated whether to message this to you privately or to reveal it to the entire forum, cuz I can whine w the best of them. People who know me will say I sound like a broken record. In Sunday's OP4 CAW hit me hard. This sucker played into the one pool CAW did and consequently watched the winner drop from 12-1 to 5-1 after the race was off. I muscled up with a larger play because the double will pay from the fav in OP3 as well as its probables to the top three choices in OP5 implied the pick might pay as much as 32.00 while its floor win payout looked to be 22.00. Broke paying 27.40 according to adw which updates every 15 seconds or so.
Deep dive into payouts.
OP3 winner paid 7.80 as the fav. OP4 winner paid 13.80. That parlay=53.82. Dubs into or out of favs tend to pay between 105 and 120% parlay. 120% parlay=64.60. Dub paid 96.20=179% parlay.
OP4 winner paid 13.80. OP5 fav winner paid 5.80. That parlay=35.88. Dub paid 89.20=223% parlay.
Also take into account straight payouts and OP4 winner feels much closer to the 19-1 place horse than a 5-1 win horse.
Winner paid 13.60-11.60-7.80
Placer paid 00.00-12.40-7.00
They might think they always catch them, but they don't.
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 1, 2024 9:14:12 GMT -5
They might think they always catch them, but they don't. I don't know what has transpired in terms of deals and discounts that OP offers now to CAWs. I just know there was quite a number of years that they were very much against them. Quite a number of years has passed since that time, and I have no contact there to ASK what CAWs are allowed into their pools NOW, and what kind of deals are being offered. I kinda assumed that personnel and which family members were at the helm have changed somewhat since those earlier times. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 1, 2024 9:22:19 GMT -5
Meanwhile a PERFECT week of perfect weather here in HS.....sun shining, mild temps........and then.........lookks like another weekend of slop coming up, both Sat and Sunday. G'ah.
Perfect ending to a disappointing week.....I was stood up by an installer from Lowes who is supposed to come install something I purchased.....they changed my appt 4x already, so my entire days were wasted planning for them to show up, then having to unplan it but I had already cancelled my other plans for them......so the days I had planned to be away from home went up in smoke. ANNOYING.
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 2, 2024 19:20:42 GMT -5
Prices are generous. It's Value Village. They were unbelievably generous today.........and almost every field was 12 horses. Which is the usual field size there though. |
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