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11/18
Nov 17, 2023 17:04:24 GMT -5
Post by phlierfreak on Nov 17, 2023 17:04:24 GMT -5
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11/18
Nov 17, 2023 17:04:44 GMT -5
Post by phlierfreak on Nov 17, 2023 17:04:44 GMT -5
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,728
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11/18
Nov 17, 2023 17:20:40 GMT -5
Post by docd on Nov 17, 2023 17:20:40 GMT -5
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,728
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11/18
Nov 17, 2023 17:35:00 GMT -5
Post by docd on Nov 17, 2023 17:35:00 GMT -5
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,771
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11/18
Nov 17, 2023 17:40:14 GMT -5
Post by eye123 on Nov 17, 2023 17:40:14 GMT -5
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,771
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11/18
Nov 17, 2023 17:44:45 GMT -5
Post by eye123 on Nov 17, 2023 17:44:45 GMT -5
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,728
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11/18
Nov 17, 2023 18:25:44 GMT -5
Post by docd on Nov 17, 2023 18:25:44 GMT -5
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,728
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11/18
Nov 17, 2023 18:35:40 GMT -5
Post by docd on Nov 17, 2023 18:35:40 GMT -5
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11/18
Nov 18, 2023 7:13:24 GMT -5
Post by UpInClass on Nov 18, 2023 7:13:24 GMT -5
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11/18
Nov 18, 2023 8:24:35 GMT -5
Post by Badactor on Nov 18, 2023 8:24:35 GMT -5
Went to bed @ 8:00pm... woke up @ 4:00am. Early to bed. Early to rise. AQU9 #2 Alogon AQU10 #2 Bella Principessa GP10 #5 X Y Point GP11 #4 Hakkimi GP12 #1 Nana Fanny GG5 #1 Supersonic Flyer DMR6 #1 Billy Joe Shaver GG6 #4 Arina DMR7 #3 Rachel's Coach GG7 #5 Mother's Prayer DMR8 #7 The Chosen Vron G8 #4 Robie
GOOD MORNING and GOOD DAY. (I said Good Day!)
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11/18
Nov 18, 2023 8:58:19 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 18, 2023 8:58:19 GMT -5
UK- Lingfield (AW) LIN R6 (9:01am ET)- 1m2f Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95)www.racingpost.com/racecards/393/lingfield-aw/2023-11-18/852109#4- Citizen General (10-1) sports pretty good form on the AW (10/3-2-1), would probably prefer 12F, gets a few pounds from the topweights and adds Rossa Ryan today so hoping they are all-in for this. #7- Thundering (7-1) from Kevin Ryan handles the AW well enough, won a Class 2 at Ayr two back then ran deceptively well in the Cambridgeshire last time, only beaten 3 1/4 lengths. Jim Crowley aboard adds to the appeal. EX- 4,7/1,3,4,6,7,9 TW
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11/18
Nov 18, 2023 9:23:47 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 18, 2023 9:23:47 GMT -5
LIN R7 (9:36am ET)- 1m2f Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)www.racingpost.com/racecards/393/lingfield-aw/2023-11-18/852107Quality field for this Listed race. #1- Regal Reality (2-1) veteran 8yo gelding continues to run well in Group-company on turf, his one AW race was a second in a Listed event here two years ago. Clearly the class of the field, and he's had a good season so far (5/1-1-2) for Sir Michael Stoute. #2- Foxes Tales (3-1) runs in the King Power colors for Andrew Balding, who is no stranger to winning on the AW here (last 5 years- 179//38 21.23% flat bet profit £41.13) and jockey Kingscote knows his way 'round as well. Has been off since a poor turf run at Royal Ascot, goes well fresh and should not be overlooked. EX- 1,2/1,2,3,4,6 TW
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11/18
Nov 18, 2023 9:53:24 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 18, 2023 9:53:24 GMT -5
LIN R8 (10:11am ET)- 6f (6f1y) Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)www.racingpost.com/racecards/393/lingfield-aw/2023-11-18/852108Tacarib Bay is a non-runner. Ended up with #7- Pink Crystal (6-1) on top for William Haggas/Kingscote. 4yo filly is consistent (15/4-4-5 overall, AW 5/1-2-2), improved this season in a limited campaign, was a C&D winner breaking her maiden. PP9 is a definite concern with the very short run into the turn, so also using #2- Aberama Gold (8-1) from PP3, which ran well in a similar event at Newcastle last week when short of running room. Also using #5- Summerghand (15-1) as a saver to win, 9yo may be on the descent in his illustrious career but his AW and course records are excellent, gets David Probert who just wins here. EX- 2,7/2,3,4,5,6,7 WIN- 5 TW
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,844
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11/18
Nov 18, 2023 10:36:07 GMT -5
Post by 1hooper on Nov 18, 2023 10:36:07 GMT -5
Have you seen any stats for post positions at 5F and 6F at Lingfield?
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11/18
Nov 18, 2023 10:45:39 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 18, 2023 10:45:39 GMT -5
Well, that was underwhelming. AW continues to baffle me over there, I zig, they zag. If I were smart, I'd hibernate until Meydan opens their turf course on Dec. 22nd. Tampa Bay Downs opens on Wednesday. Major purse increases going into effect for this season, with MSW up to $35,000 for non-FL breds, and as much as $53,000 for FL-breds. Similar increases for allowance races, and the claimers get a boost too. Purse money increases: www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/270628/purses-at-tampa-bay-downs-to-rise-5-5m-in-2023-24First condition book: www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=CB-TAM-20231122-20231223DNew faces: www.tampabaydowns.com/fresh-faces-in-trainer-jockey-ranks-heighten-opening-day-anticipationI'll be playing the turf races there, or at least the MSW, straight claimers, allowances, and Stakes (not MdClm or beaten-claimers, i.e. N2L, N3L). Be sure to avoid those plays until it looks like I know what is going on there . TW
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11/18
Nov 18, 2023 11:01:06 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 18, 2023 11:01:06 GMT -5
Have you seen any stats for post positions at 5F and 6F at Lingfield? From an article addressing draw & running style bias at Lingfield: www.geegeez.co.uk/all-weather-analysis-lingfield-racecourse6F-"A similar pattern to 5f it seems. Nothing mind blowing, but essentially a lower draw is almost certainly a small advantage. If we combine draw and run style we get the following 6f handicap heat map when looking at PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) figures: This shows the difficulty hold up horses have from any draw and also, for horses that race mid-division, a wide draw is a definite negative. This is a key take away in terms of both run style and draw over this trip." Interesting data. TW
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