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[eye123]

Considering the bankroll ($2,000) and the wide interest in several races,(everyone making good cases for their selections) it seems constructing a pick 6 ticket becomes, to say the least an unenviable proposition. Anyone think the pick 5 is a better route to take? Anyone against the pick 5 altogether ?  Considering some recent payouts in recent previous years, the return could well be worth the effort should we get a price or two.(or three) Something to consider. Thoughts ? 

[shoes]

Nov 2, 2023 13:49:59 GMT -5 eye123 said:

Considering the bankroll ($2,000) and the wide interest in several races,(everyone making good cases for their selections) it seems constructing a pick 6 ticket becomes, to say the least an unenviable proposition. Anyone think the pick 5 is a better route to take? Anyone against the pick 5 altogether ?  Considering some recent payouts in recent previous years, the return could well be worth the effort should we get a price or two.(or three) Something to consider. Thoughts ? 

Cherokee scot raised that earlier. I am open-minded about it. I do think that unlike the P6 there are no consolation pay-outs in the P5 in California, not that that should be a factor as we are in it to win it, as the saying goes.

[cindyloujazz]

Beneath all of my selections, I said a Pick 5 would be acceptable. I think we can spread abit more, Pick 6,,is tough to navigate,less selections.
I say we do a Pick 5. We can still win a big chunk of moola!

[tenfurlongs]

I understand taking the pick-5 route ($0.50), it would expand our coverage 2X, with one less race to boot. But the payout in the pick-5 is much, much smaller than the Pick-6.

To get those big pick-5 payouts, you need to have at least one huge bomb (March Lorraine, Order of Australia $100+) or multiple bombs at 20-1+. I don't think we can ever go deep enough to catch that kind of horse, because on paper they don't look like a winner, and even a deep 'consensus' ticket wouldn't randomly use one.  

Remember that with a near sure-thing (he was) last year, the pick-6 paid almost $3000, and we had a few consos thrown in. The winners were  4-1/6-1/7-5/3-1/6-1/1-2. One or two longer shots (9-1 to 12-1) and we would have made a profit, and possibly a good one. Ideally, we need to beat one or two solid favorites while getting home a couple of our third and fourth picks. Definitely doable. even on a balanced ticket (4x4x4x3x3x3.) Might not be sexy, but it gives us as good a chance as possible of hitting all six winners, while still catching a $20 animal.

I will also note that this was designed as a pick-6 effort and recruited that way, so even if switching to a pick-5 makes some financial sense, some participants might not be happy about the change if a big Pick-6 dream is what they have. Personally, I choose the Pick-6, but I'll go with whatever we decide to do. I'll probably screw up placing the bet somehow anyways  ...




TW

[eye123]

Pick 6 play...I would single White Abbario and use Elite Power and Speed Boat Beach as a two.....leaves spread money for the other four legs. Must uses..Song line,Kelina,Mawj,Gina RomanticaClairiere,Motorius, Leaves ammo leftover.



Either pk5 or pk6 is fine. Both make sense to a degree.  

[mysaladdays]

Whatever works for everyone else, and the final decision of our ticket maker, is fine with me.


I will include some longshots in my P6 ticket suggestions, which I will post on Friday, or whenever TW gives us the deadline.  cuz I"m not done yet. See if they line up with anyone else's longshots and if not, I will not be offended if nobody uses them.  We should probably post at least 1 decent longshot in our picks for each race which might make that easier for the ticket maker to "survey them". 

[shoes]

Those are good points Tom and I am fine with either approach. Your larger point about having to catch some longer prices is the key though and it is what makes building a consensus ticket so hard , where it feels like someone likes/wants 1 of the top 2 or 3 or even 3 or 4 betting choices in each race. Even with the size of our bankroll I think a ticket that includes a single and at least one double is most likely to hit a big score (especially if the single isn't a huge chalk). But then you don't use that chalk, who multiple people like and it wins and then it's like how could we not use _______?

This is the reason why last year, and again this year, I will not list any must haves because it is so hard for those constructing the ticket. I will give more opinions this year but I have zero problem with them not being used.

I am playing for the fun of it and to be a part of a team pulling together.

PS- even though I said Idiomatic would be my single in another thread, the more I look at it, the less comfortable I feel about that choice.

[5wide]

I'm fine whichever way the wind blows.

[PonyGirlJCM]

I am just along for the ride…..
I trust those who put the wager together will take all into consideration and put forward their best efforts to bring it home…..
GO GO  PONIES  !!!   🏁🏇💰💰💰

[cherokeescot]

Happy to leave it in the very capable hands of Tom . He has been on fire recently and am looking forward to rooting on our ticket on Sunday morning

[lure]

I suggest we stay the course and play a p6. It looks to tough to isolate a single, but what if we asked everyone, "Gun to your head, pick 1 horse for Saturday in P6 sequence" and use the top vote getter in our leg with 2 picks. The other will come from our braintrusts! Just a thought.
Maybe we wont lose that bad.

[ozzy]

I’m only in for $50 so kind of like playing the lottery. I don’t expect a return, joined to hit it big if at all so I say go for the jackpot. In Tom we trust!!!

If you want to make it democratic, put up a possible ticket tomorrow. Each share gets a vote for or against a selection, tabulate and roll with it. Appreciate all the efforts of everyone!

Personally, little more than a cursory pass through I’d play this way (not tabulating cost)

Mile: Mawj, Songline, Kelina, More Than Looks

Distaff: Clairere, Pretty Mischievous, Idomatic (deep would use Randomized, Search Resuts, Wet Paint but can’t go that deep)

Turf: Augustine Rodin (single?), Onesto, War Like Godess

Classic: Saudi Crown, Zandon, White Abarrio

Turf Sprint: Motorious, Caravel, Roses For Debra, Big Invasion

Sprint : Elite Power, Dr Schivel, The Chosen Vron, Gunite

But I am not a Pick 6 player!!! Just rambling thoughts on Thursday night

I think that would fit the budget (not going as deep in the Distaff). Curious to what others think. I vote no singles as not that horse this year.

[Deleted]

if i havta say it AGAIN
it was billed as a pick 6 and that's
what it should be
even if u thought the p5 would pay 30k (it won't)
i trust TW to use HIS judgement to make a p6 ticket and whatever type of savers
with any leftover crumbs
i can do my own p5
this way at least we account for last day scratches