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Post by Badactor on Oct 5, 2023 10:58:59 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 18, 2023 12:49:51 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 18, 2023 12:51:31 GMT -5
Belmont Park, Manhattan Stakes (GI), June 10- Up To The Mark
Santa Anita, John Henry Turf Championship, Oct 1- Balladeer, Gold Phoenix
Kentucky Downs, Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes (GII), Sep 9- Get Smokin
Saratoga, Sword Dancer Stakes (GI), Aug 26- Bolshoi Ballet
Leopardstown, Irish Champions Stakes (GI), Sep 9- Auguste Rodin, Onesto
York, Juddmonte International Stakes (GI), Aug 23- Mostahdaf
Baqueduct, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (GI), Oct 7- War Like Goddess
Doncaster, Doncaster Cup Stakes (GII), Sep 15- Broome
Longchamp, Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (GI), Oct 1- Onesto
Meydan, Dubai Sheema Classic (GI), Mar 25- Shahryar
Ascot, Champions Stakes (GI), Oct 21st- King Of Steel
Woodbine, Canadian International Stakes (GI), Oct 8th- Adhamo
TW
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 22, 2023 10:49:23 GMT -5
Shadwell's Mostahdaf (Ire) (Frankel {GB}) was withdrawn from Saturday's G1 QIPCO Champion S. due to the ground, with the GI Breeders Cup Turf now on the agenda for the Gosdens G1 Juddmonte International and G1 Prince of Wales S. hero.
Racing manager Angus Gold said, I asked two jockeys coming back in and one said it was horrible ground and the other that it was heavy, so we decided we didn't want to end his career on a bad note. He'll be prepared for the Breeders Cup Turf now.
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 25, 2023 14:23:20 GMT -5
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 26, 2023 18:11:54 GMT -5
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 27, 2023 14:39:19 GMT -5
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Oct 31, 2023 20:39:38 GMT -5
I like Onesto to upset the apple cart here. Should be ready to fire big. Jockey is the only concern. Anyone know anything about Maxime Guyon ?
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 31, 2023 20:52:28 GMT -5
I like Onesto to upset the apple cart here. Should be ready to fire big. Jockey is the only concern. Anyone know anything about Maxime Guyon ? I saw him at the Arc meeting at Longchamps in October. Third on Onesto at 55-1 (finished like a train ) and first on Kelina at 28-1. A decent day ! |
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on Oct 31, 2023 21:33:19 GMT -5
Hate to go with the fav but Auguste Rodin is a dual Derbybwinner and looks the goods. Unsure of Up To The Mark but he impressed in his last 3 for sure. War Like Goddess for a piece again late?
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 31, 2023 22:06:19 GMT -5
I thought Up to the Mark would go for the mile. Can he get the extra distance. I suppose we are asking the same question of Mostadahf . Looking for Tom to weigh in here as he has been crushing the international turf races of late.
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Nov 1, 2023 8:27:37 GMT -5
I like Onesto to upset the apple cart here. Should be ready to fire big. Jockey is the only concern. Anyone know anything about Maxime Guyon ? I saw him at the Arc meeting at Longchamps in October. Third on Onesto at 55-1 (finished like a train ) and first on Kelina at 28-1. A decent day ! Nice, hopefully he's learning the lay of the land this week . |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 1, 2023 11:45:42 GMT -5
Onesto was sat out the back of the field in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (GI), and when they turned into the home straight he got on Ace Impact's tail and followed him down the middle of the course, only just failing to catch Westover for second. Visually that was a very impressive run, and he might want a bit more cut in the ground than he'll get here. On a side note, he was purchased at the Tattersalls yearling sale (October) for $250K, then showed up at OBS April 2yo-in-training and sold to current connections for $535K. Imagine finding a {Frankel x Sea The Stars mare} colt at that sale!
Auguste Rodin has thrown two big clunkers in top company this year, but he was a dual-Derby winner and won the Irish Champions Stakes (GI) when last seen. Gets 4lbs from older males, is a fighter when he wins, but might need a bit more against this top-flight group. Definitely damned if you don't.
Up to the Mark looks like one of the best middle-distance turf males of recent vintages in the US, once he hit the turf he never looked back. The downhill opening quarter-mile of this configuration will help many horses get a farther distance than they might otherwise, and should benefit this guy. His Manhattan Stakes (GI) win was very good, in 1:59 1/5. Irad lives for mounts like this one, he'll be all in.
Mostahdaf has scored three big victories this year, and even his lone fourth-place finish was behind Equinox, Westover, and Zagrey in Dubai, and that form has held up like hickory. His win in the $15M Saudi Neom Turf Cup was electric, and he showed his tactical versatility last time when Frankie sent him right to the lead in the Juddmonte International (GI). He has the early foot to keep close tabs on Balladeer, and anyone else (?) which wants to be out there winging it. Has had a nice vacation since late August, but he goes very well when fresh. Son of Frankel heads off to stud following this race, so the Gosdens and Jim Crowley are on full blast in this.
I'm not sure if King of Steel has one more big effort in him, coming off such a demanding effort as he had at Ascot two weeks ago in the Champions Stakes (GI) on Frankie's final mount in GB (for now.) He's also tried and failed three times to finish ahead of Auguste Rodin, which reopposes in here. Gets 4lbs like that one does, and I think I'd feel like a dunce if he wins and I tossed him because "he just ran a huge race."
War Like Goddess loves the distance, nearly always runs her race, and is coming into this even better than she did last year. PP13, however, did her dirty, and Junior Alvarado will have to hit every hole and luck into every opening he can get (see: Pizza Bianca, 2021 BC Juv Turf) if he's going to win this.
Underneath runners would include HFTC and possible lone-speed Balladeer, and Bolshoi Ballet, which could sit a beautiful pocket trip under Johnny V.
In order of preference:
Mostahdaf
Onesto
Auguste Rodin
Up to the Mark
King of Steel
War Like Goddess
TW
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Nov 1, 2023 13:11:21 GMT -5
The downhill opening quarter-mile of this configuration will help many horses get a farther distance than they might otherwise
Thanks for this little nugget. I totally overlooked it .
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Post by mysaladdays on Nov 1, 2023 20:43:32 GMT -5
G1 wins at the distance = Auguste Rodin, Onesto, Bolshoi Ballet, War Like Goddess, Shahryar, King Of Steel
Though an Outlier in every respect, I am still invested in Shahryar
Auguste Rodin "looks the part".
Will have to take a look at the others again. Onesto is the better odds Frankel than Mostahdaf. Would Mostahdaf still be coming over if he had not skipped the G1 QIPCO Champion Stakes? This question has nagged at me. "so now we will go to the BC Turf instead" announced late. Anyway, Onesto and Mostahdaf seem somewhat interchangeable but I think Onesto may have a tad more stamina on the female side.
Looks like I scooped pretty much everybody as well as the racing Press by at least a whole week on Shahryar. Breeders Cup News is just getting around to what I already wrote about him ....... there go my odds?
Ditto Bloodhorse with the articles about all the horses from the KY Derby not going in the classic, their "big article" that came out yesterday that someone sent me.
to our ticket maker: I will not be offended if we don't use Shahryar. He is a true outlier. I studied his pedigree carefully as well, kinda "old timey" in some respects.
I don't care a whole lot how the ticket is made up, I wouldn't want THAT job. I only entered for "the fun" and so far, it has been. (well, at least the handicapping part......cant say that about the news so far). As always it's about trying out our thoughts with others, and the comraderie!!
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Post by cherokeescot on Nov 1, 2023 21:19:06 GMT -5
If Auguste Rodin runs his race he will win . Unfortunately he has run two clunkers on his travels otherwise he would be a short priced favorite here However it’s tough to leave him off on the ticket given his ability . Mostadahf at ten furlongs would be a shoe in but can he get the extra two (I know it’s downhill) . King of Steel is coming back in two weeks ( I wish they had opted for the Classic) . Any way you look at it , what a fantastic race is in prospect !
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Post by merasmag on Nov 1, 2023 22:00:31 GMT -5
the only reason it was in the bc news is cuz kasept (steve byk)
read what you and then i wrote about Shahryar
one reason not to tip hands publicly
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Post by cindyloujazz on Nov 2, 2023 13:28:14 GMT -5
Onesto, Bolshoi Ballet, (sp?), Up to the Mark, Mostahdaf and defensively Auguste Rodin.
I'm okay with a Pick 5.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Nov 2, 2023 17:37:56 GMT -5
Agree this may be the best race of the two days, paradoxically I am on a chalk though in Auguste Rodin. Unlike some of the other top Euros, he has been pointed for this all along. By the way Guyon (on Ornesto) is IMO, an excellent jockey per the question above. For sure using him in exactas and tris.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Nov 2, 2023 18:01:03 GMT -5
Auguste Rodin's best # this year is slower than any Mostahdaf # this year.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Nov 2, 2023 18:10:10 GMT -5
Auguste Rodin's best # this year is slower than any Mostahdaf # this year. Well- that seems significant! |
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