2023 BC Juvenile

[Badactor]

www.breederscup.com/horses/contenders/juvenile

[1hooper]

If you make your own speed figs.

DRF.
The official time of the Breeders’ Futurity on Oct. 7 at Keeneland was revised this week from 1:45.06 to 1:44.62 after hand-timing of race video revealed a discrepancy with the 1 1/16-mile race’s initial clocking.

Locked, who overcame a wide trip to win the Grade 1 race for 2-year-olds, had his Beyer Speed Figure raised from an 87 to a 92.

[Badactor]

Locked is very impressive!

[jolyb]

This has been a very quiet thread, so I though I'd express my thoughts on what is a very interesting race.  The recently announced scratch of Ecoro Neo doesn't change my analysis at all.  I never really understood why he was running in the race in the first place.  It seemed like a very long trip to run in a race where, at least on paper, the entrant would be greatly outclassed.

I can't make a case for Cuban Thunder and have left him off of any ticket.  He's never raced on dirt and doesn't seem to have the talent of many of the others in this race.  To me, he would be a stretch.

After that, the race analysis gets very interesting, with a list of well bred two year olds trained by an all star list of trainers.  Three Bafferts, three Pletchers, Brad Cox, Chad Brown and Mike Maker.  Have I left anyone out?   Having said that, I still think that the talent rises to the top and that it is not too difficult to distill the field down to what I think are the top 4 most talented runners at this point in their short careers.  In making a horizontal bet, I would be hard pressed not to include Locked, Muth, Prince of Monaco and Timberlake.  In playing a pick 3,4 or 5, I'd be very comfortable with them on the ticket and very worried if I left any one off.  I think that I can make a case against each of the others, although these are two year olds and are all capable of suddenly making a dramatic stride forward at any time. 

The Wine Steward ran very well in the Futurity, but got the better trip and was still outgunned to the wire by Locked.  Wine Me Up ran well to be second in the American Pharoah, but was never goint to get close to Muth.  General Partner put in a good effort in the Champagne, but just wasn't a match for Timberlake in the final stages.  I can't explain what happened to Fierceness in the Champagne and am left wondering whether that race is just a complete throwout.  But will he be able to suddenly rebound and show the form of his maiden victory?  The talent might be there, but I'm not going to buy into him for this race.  Noted is a curious entrant.   I think that Pletcher had expressed first preference for the Juvie Turf, but entered him here instead.  Not entirely sure why, and his one race on dirt had a good number, but I think that he would need to improve a lot over that to match up with the top runners here.

That leaves me with Locked, Muth, Prince of Monaco and Timberlake - two Bafferts, a Pletcher and a Cox.  In a vertical wager, I like Locked the best by just a little bit.  There is a lot of early speed in this race.  General Partner, Muth and I think Wine Me Up will be gunning for the lead and I anticipate a very lively pace.  Locked's running style seems to fit that dynamic very well.  His late pace number is by far the best.  After that, I would rank Muth next most likely winner.  Yes, he was beaten by Prince of Monaco in the Best Pal, but I think he moved forward in his next race and should be ready to compete here.  I kind of wish that Prince of Monaco had another race under his belt after the Best Pal.  Baffert certainly knows his stable, but I have this nagging worry that PofM might not be as ready to run this distance as some of the others.  Could be wrong about that - he could be a winner also, just not as comfortable with him.  Finally, there is Timberlake, who I thought should have been a winner in the Hopeful and ran an impressive race in the Champagne.  In making horizontal bets, I'd probably include him.  I plaving vertical bets, I'd be just a little less likely to put him on top of the ticket than any of the other three.  In my opinion, just a little less likely to be the winner but definitely one to use underneath. 

Haven't even finished my first cup of morning coffee and this analysis might reflect that, but I wanted to keep the discussion moving along.  Should be a fun race to watch as we begin to think about next year's Derby contenders.

[cherokeescot]

I noted that Irad Ortiz is riding Noted (20-1) instead of Fierceness (6-1) and will be wagering according 😜

[jolyb]

Nov 1, 2023 19:03:42 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

I noted that Irad Ortiz is riding Noted (20-1) instead of Fierceness (6-1) and will be wagering according 😜

That was one of a number of reasons that caused me to leave Fierceness off of any of my tickets.  The training job that Todd performed was masterful, as was the amount of confidence that both he and Mike had to have an unexplainably bad effort in the Champagne and persevere to still run in the BC and then win so emphatically.  My picks were 2-3-4 and 5 behind him, pretty much in that order, but all were far behind.