BC Fri A few long shots - maybe

[bobtailnag]

I looked at all the BC races for Friday and selected a long shot in each race. I looked for a logical reason each horse could pull it off. I'm not predicting these horses will win, only the chance I think each could. Bulletin in the 5th is really stretch.

R5 BC JuvTfSprnt

#4 Bulletin 10/1 What;s to like – Half the field are Euros, that should mean they have a better than 50/50 chance that one of them wins it. Bulletin has only one race under his belt and that was in the $75k Hollywood Beach stakes but did win it by 7 lengths while going doot-to-door. I wouldn't actually bet this horse at 10/1 but I suspect he'll be closer to 15/1. Soldiers Call at 9/2 looks like the best bet for me.


Race 6 BCFilTurf

#14 East 20/1 What's to like – There's only one filly in here with a ML under 6/1 and that's Newspaperofrecord 2/1. In a field of 14 with a number of very nice fillies in here, no way I put win money on 2/1. East is a daughter of the great Frankle and coming out of the 14-hole I'm pretty sure she won't get boxed in anytime during the race. She and #1 Concrete Rose are the only undefeated runners in here – both ate 2/2. Rose looks like a good play also but with her running style and coming out of the 1-hole there little chance she'll get the lead out of the gate and is it's very likely to get boxed in most of the race.

Race 7 BC Juv Fil

#8 Sippican Harbor 12/1 What's to like – There are 3 top speed types in here and I think one of those should win – assuming at least one of the jockey's will have the presence of mind to reign his filly in for a half mile or so. BUT, if none do then Sipp is the horse that has shown she can bring it late. Her win in the Spinaway proved that.


R8 BC Juv Turf

#2 Uncle Benny 15/1 What to like – In Benny's first race he wired the field but in his second race (6-fls) which was his first on the grass, he broke last of 10, was still last of 10, 7 lengths back and 8 wide after a half mile. In the final quarter mile he passed the entire field and won. You might be somewhat concerned about the lack of distance in those to races but his sire's AWD was 8.7Fs I don't think he'll be bothered much about the 1-1/16.

R9 BC Juv

#5 Well Defined 20/1 What's to like – Last two races were excellent. In Sept, in a $200,000 Rstakes he broke in top and let the entire race – except for the last 5 steps. But this month, in a $400,000 Rstakes going 1-1/16, in a 12 horse field, he broke on top and won for fun – by 8 lengths. For you speed number folks, both races earned triple digit figs and is the only horse in the field to show a triple digit fig. Mike Smith rides for Kathleen O'Connell. I can't believe that think he'll go off at 20/1.

[MorganEdge]

In the 5th, I'll take a flyer with Queen of Bermuda (20-1). With all the speed in the race she is an off the pace horse who can benefit if all the speed breaks down. Other races in Friday's card seem pretty chalky so playing some prices in this race may be the best chance for a large P3 or Tri payout.

Similarly in the 6th I might take a change with Varenka (20-1), has come from off the pace on a yielding course in two prior so might be able to slip into the tri in this one.

[eye123]

Bobtail: "what's to like"

Race 6 BCFilTurf

"#14 East 20/1 What's to like – There's only one filly in here with a ML under 6/1 and that's Newspaperofrecord 2/1. In a field of 14 with a number of very nice fillies in here, no way I put win money on 2/1. East is a daughter of the great Frankle and coming out of the 14-hole I'm pretty sure she won't get boxed in anytime during the race. She and #1 Concrete Rose are the only undefeated runners in here – both ate 2/2. Rose looks like a good play also but with her running style and coming out of the 1-hole there little chance she'll get the lead out of the gate and is it's very likely to get boxed in most of the race."


A clocker's comment on East (one minute into video)






...and five year stat on Chad Brown at CD.....(4 for 44) (Newspaperofrecord)


pbs.twimg.com/media/DqxBNKvWkAAdqTD.jpg:large


...at 20-1 I've seen worse shots, but a little more info then others have now

[bobtailnag]

The 3 things listed - breeding, pole position in a 14 horse race and the anticipation that an unbeaten filly with that breeding will continue to improve in this race. I don't know anything about the trainer but I know Jamie Spencer is one of the better riders over there.

[orioleboy]

Hey Bobtail. Nice handicapping. Three of your picks are mine as well. East, Sippican Harbor and Uncle Benny.
Good Luck
Steve

[bobtailnag]

Three of your horses just got the kiss of death! You'll need more than luck now.

[spiderjohn]

5th race
Brutal way to start a tough race card with changing conditions as it evolves. Probably playing win exactas and tris today, though I have ALL here in the middle leg of a hopefully live p3 of 1-2-8-9/ALL/1-4-5-6-13 hoping to start off with four digit hit---Otherwise playing #10 SO PERFECT to win or on top, hoping that she is the soft turf best of the O'Briens. #2 SOLDIERS CALL is hard to ignore, and I was watching when #5 BULLETIN made his debut in a minor stakes(amazing and geared down early @5f. #13 BIG DRINK OF WATER draws in late and could be a factor in the outcome. A riders' race imo, and the 2nd or 3rd Aidan runner can be like the 2nd Baffert runner(often in the winner's circle).


Race 6, 
Doesn't get any easier here---#1 CONCRETE ROSE calmly runs along and outfinishes everyone so far--odds seem low in this field. #6 NEWSPAPEROF RECORD looks super on paper and got a double thumbs up from Ozzy I believe, so on the ticket in a big way. Also using #4 JUST WONDERFUL, #5 LA PELOSA, #9 VARENKA, #13 MY GAL BETTY, and #14 EAST in a very broad and risky tri box hoping to score. Staying away from p3,4,5s other than a late p4 p5 group play.

7th Race
A lot of expected pace in the pps, hoping that #4 RESTLESS RIDER picks up the pieces and rolls by like her last win. #2 SERENGETI EMPRESS is the elephant in this room and will probably be 2-1 or less. #10 BELLAFINA is obvious, and I hear she is very good. She might also be hard hit on the board. There is value in the gimmicks if #2 or #10 don't win. #7 JAYWALK and #8 SIPPICAN HARBOR make my broad box tickets. I like the individual race approach today.

8th race
Hard separating #5 LINE OF DUTY(impressive late burst in last and a top shelf trainer/rider), #12 CURRENT(not my favorite turf sire, but grassy dam--he does it so easily) and #14 ANTHONY VAN DYCK(O'Brien/Moore). Also an eye on #2 UNCLE BENNY and #4 FORTY UNDER as lesser known USA runners.

9th race  
#4 TIGHT TEN hopefully extends my successful trend of picking spots where Asmussen and Santana hook up to shock the tote. #9 GAME WINNER fell in to a nice win last time, and could continue forward. #6 COMPLEXITY jumps out on paper if the freaky breeding holds together. My capping partners like #7 MIND CONTROL.

10TH race
Love a 5-ru...nner tri box of #5 SENIOR INVESTMENT, #7 BIG DOLLAR BILL, #8 HONORABLE DUTY, #9 TOAST OF NEW YORK and #10 ROCKETRY.
#5 to win in a boxcar shocker---seems to want a lot of distance, and he probably won't have a better opportunity..

I could also change my mind--add or drop any of these pending how the $$ is flowing

[UpInClass]

Great thread... thank you, Gentlemen
for the excellent handicapping and analysis!

HAPPY BREEDERS' CUP!

[spiderjohn]

imo Jamie Spencer over here from the 14-hole is a bad trip waiting to happen.
His dqs have cost me big time at Arlington

hope this doesn't mojo me

[elk]

R1 #6 DORODANSA had some trouble last time and was on short rest, her better races fit with these and she fired a bullet work since.
R2 #9 & #1a both fit the workout profile of high price 1st out winners. Would't leave either off the early pick 4/5 tickets.
R8 #2 UNCLE BENNY bred for turf but ran a very nice 9 on tgraph first out. paired up the 9 on turf last time on good going. won from the lead and from 12 back sprinting, should love the mile trip and will have plenty of options to find the best ground from the 2 hole.
R9 #7 MIND CONTROL ran a 7 first out then paired 5's on short rest. (fastest in the race each have run a 2) gets plenty of time and steady solid works, should move up with the added distance and has enough speed to work out a trip.