Royal Ascot Wednesday

[mysaladdays]

Does anyone know what the ground/weather is supposed to be like on Wednesday? 


Not CRAZY about this particular card, yet find myself getting sucked into the Royal Hunt Club R5, despite the huge field,  because I find it so challenging, the odds will probably be spectacular,  and overall, I find this race somewhat impossible to cap.  Bring It On.  

I'm going to go for horses under 6 years old, and no more than 9st-5lb.  That was where I just decided to draw the line in the sand (based on a number of factors and history, esp. the weight consideration.  No horse over 9st-5lb has won this race in 20 years).  That allowed me to eliminate about half the field.  Now working on the ones I think can show up in an exotic. (sorry Reach for the Moon, Awaal, et. al. history says you won't win this one.)

For the Queens Vase R6 I like only 5 horses and still deciding on which to use for the Win, and/or which 3 to use for exotics:  Peking Opera, Circle of Fire, King George, Chesspiece, and St. Vincents Garden.   Gregory may be a lock but I can't use for the win at those odds.   

Not going to bother with Prince of Wales R4......6 horses (for $1.2 million I thought more would enter) but the heavy hitters scared them off I guess.  Too hard to find value in this one unless a surprise outcome. 

[tenfurlongs]

• 9.30am ET– Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) 5f 2yo fillies

Born To Rock and Tiger Belle are scratched. Many of these have had only one race, and horses can show the greatest improvement on their second outing, so 'upsets' happen frequently in these kinds of races. #14- Got to Love A Grey (8-1) is a daughter of Dark Angel with a pedigree that says she'll stretch out later on, but on debut at Nottingham she bolted up by six lengths over soft ground. Last time at York she took the Marygate Fillies S. (Listed) wire-to-wire, duplicating her first effort on good going that time. Karl Burke wins these races often, his sprint program works. #25- Relief Rally (10-1) is a daughter of sprint sire Kodiac from William Haggas. She has a very similar profile to Burke's filly. FWIW Crimson Advocate got the biggest performance figure in the field last out. Can a George Weaver-trained daughter of Nyquist really win a 5F race at the Royal meeting? 

EX- 14,25/1,3,12,14,21,25 



• 10.05am ET– Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) Old mile (round) 4up f&m

Al Agaila is out. #3- Crystal Caprice (6-1) is a Frankel filly for Stoute/Moore from the Rothchilds, had a nice series of races last summer including a win here, ran in two Listed races this year in order to keep her rating down, should be ready to fire best shot today. #9- Tarrabb (10-1) was third behind the top one at Ascot last September, ran a good AW second last month to shake off the rust. Owen Burrows is a very underrated trainer IMO, gets Buick aboard again.

EX- 3,9/3,6,9,16,17



• 10.40am ET– Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) 1m (straight) 4up f&m

Hard to go past the two favorites in here. #4- Jumbly (7-5) won a GIII here under Hollie Doyle last summer, then was a private purchase and turned over to Joseph O'Brien. She ran a career best when second in GII at the Curragh last month, will take some beating under Ryan Moore from PP2. #7- Prosperous Voyage (7-2) offers a chance for Frankie to right the ship today, he'd love to win this for his close friend Marc Chan. In fine fettle right now, turns back to a mile so Dettori has to get his fractions just right.

EX- 4,7/1,4,6,7,9



• 11.20am ET– Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) 1m 2f 4up

Quality field of six. I've been on #6- My Prospero (7-2) since his debut at Newmarket in 2021, he's my favorite horse-in-training. He couldn't quite get to Bay Bridge and Adayar in the Champion Stakes as a 3yo, but that was deep ground he hadn't tried previously. Prepped nicely in the one-mile Lockinge S. (GI) for this, he was always going to be a 10F older horse, the quest begins today. Haggas/Marquand in the Sunderland yellow.

WIN- 6


• 12.00pm ET– Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 1m (straight) 3up

The highweight, Migration, is scratched. Nearly ran out of toner printing this one, pen needs a refill too. #2- Tempus (20-1) really seems to like it here, was third in this race last year. Five pounds higher now courtesy of two GIII wins, but Hollie is back aboard and Tempus returns to the handicap ranks today. #10- Ghaly (10-1) has been off since last fall, but Saeed bin Suroor can get one ready off the bench, and the horse progressed smoothly through his limited 2022 campaign. Also thinking that #13- Astro King (8-1) and #8- Bless Him (20-1) can outperform at this venue over good ground. Throwing a bunch of money at this one, hoping to get at least one right.

WIN- 2  PL- 8  EX- 2,10/2,6,7,8,10,13,17,19,25


• 12.35am ET– Queen’s Vase (Group 2) 1m 6f 3yo

Whoever named their horse Steven Seagull was just wrong, in so many ways, it hurts my brain. Also, your horse couldn't win a Class 6 maiden at Chelmsford, maybe you should spot the horse in a more realistic place, such as the pony ride enclosure (I'm sure he's a nice gelding, just has idiot owners.) Time to find out which 3yos can be future stayers, and Melrose, Ebor, & Cup horses down the road. Undefeated #5- Gregory (8-5) makes third career start for the Gosdens/Dettori, son of Golden Horn seems the right type for this, hopefully he drifts up in price just a bit. #9- Peking Opera (8-1) Galileo colt has been progressive through three starts, won a Listed event at Navan on seasonal debut, still has to prove that he can see out the trip in Group company despite that victory at 13F. Spreading wide looking for a price underneath.

EX- 5,9/2,3,4,5,6,9,10,14


• 1.10pm ET- Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) 5f 2yo

Wesley Ward's Fandom is scratched. Added more paper to the printer too, sheesh. #3- Barnwell Boy (3-1) had an auspicious debut at Goodwood winning by open lengths going 6F, should be suited to this stiff 5F test. #15- Maximum Impact (5-1) looks to put Amo Racing and Kia Joorabchian on the scoreboard, won both starts including the Trial race here over the well-regarded Blue Point colt Action Point, which reopposes today. Also, despite being stuck out on a wing (PP26) for this #26- World of Darcy (15-1) was better than any horse not named Elite Status in the National Stakes last out, using as a saver and hoping he stays in the double-digits. Karl Burke has some serious 2yos this season. Spreading deep again, swinging for the fences.

EX- 3,15/1,3,5,7,9,15,20,23,26  WIN- 26


Good luck if you play, and you definitely should!!




TW

[1hooper]

Big morning line on the R7 Blue Point's.

[spiderjohn]

treading lighter today--not in love with these races either--like tomorrow better

yesterday 1st--was counting my expected winnings in my head when the 12 was passed at the wire--was loaded on 12 and of course a 12/all exacta wheel

race 1
Sticking with Amurikans here--Weaver's 9 was very good in FL easily beating a highly regarded Wesley---different game here, though I don't see any stars(yet...). Hoping to eventually score on these cluster bomb xboxes. Still like Frankie today--he should be more determined after yesterday,.
9 win
xbox 1-3-9-10-14-25

race 2
no clue---but since I will be watching...
xbox 1-3-6-9-12

race 3
Coming back with Dettori and #7 PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, though Joseph is high on #4 JUMBLY. 
7 win
tri pw 4-7/4-7/all
tri box 1-4-7-10

race 4I have done well with #6 MY PROSPERO also, and this might be his best distance.  Still a very tough spot.
6 win
tri pw 4/6/all

hope to be back later!
gl!

[turffan]

Slowing way down after yesterday's debacle.

Queen Mary - $2 WP on Betties Bay (4) and Crimson Advocate (9)
Kensington Palace $2 WP on Bellhaven (11)
Duke of Cambridge - Exacta key box Jumbly (4) with Prosperous Voyage (7), Random Harvest (9) and Rogue Millennium (10)
Price of Wales - Exacta key box Adayar (1) with Bay Bridge (2), Luxembourg (4) and My Prospero (6)
Royal Hunt Club - $2 WP on Dunum (17)
Queen's Vase -  Exact key box  Gregory (5) with Circe of Fire (3), Etna Rosso (4) and Peking Opera (9)

[cherokeescot]

Hoping Wesley Ward’s fortunes take a turn for the better today and going with Bundchen in the opener

[shoes]

Love the racing. Playing the first race as 14-3-1-25

edit- going to include 21 as well.

[5wide]

A few wp bets today
2.30 - Bundchen
3.05 - Tarrabb
3.40 - Queen Aminatu
4.20 - Adayar
5.00 - Awaal
5.35 - Chesspiece

Good luck.

[shoes]

Fantastic race.

[5wide]

WOw Joel and George get one. How great is that !

[cherokeescot]

Nice one Spider 🤑

[tenfurlongs]

Congratulations to Crimson Advocate and those who backed her! Nice hit for spider to start the day. I wonder who decided to try him on the grass, must be a physicality thing, he's out of a Derby winner and a dirt-sprinting SW mare. Gotta love it.

Also, just watched interview with Johnny V. after the race. George Weaver's wife Cindy was badly hurt last summer at Saratoga while exercising a horse, but she has rehabbed to the point where she was able to travel over to Ascot for the race! Wonderful news, so happy for those guys!


paulickreport.com/news/people/really-proud-of-her-11-months-after-brain-injury-cindy-weaver-will-accompany-husband-with-dual-royal-ascot-hopes/



TW

[spiderjohn]

I like today better already--used #9 in our contest!

guess that I will stick around

[spiderjohn]

Ms Harrington hits with a mega bomb and I dont have it--I hope my friends for whom she trains did

10f?
anyone?

[tenfurlongs]

Jun 21, 2023 9:16:34 GMT -5 spiderjohn said:

Ms Harrington hits with a mega bomb and I dont have it--I hope my friends for whom she trains did

10f?
anyone?

Couldn't use the winner off her last two efforts. MadameBlum really liked the runner up Don't Tell Claire. 

36-1 over 30-1 exacta paid $1364 for a buck. Ouch! That's why you play these races though.




TW

[mysaladdays]

Race 2 paid pretty amazing: $1.00 Trifecta 5/13/9 $13,793.30

[mysaladdays]

R3 my contest pick, Rogue Millenium won @10-1. I played w/p.

I also played a tri box 10, 9, 1 (10-1, 22-1, 3-1) .......but it came in 10-9-7 and I didn't play the exacta.


Congrats to turffan who did hit that exotic perfectly

[turffan]

Had 10-9-7 in exacta key box tied to the 4. Get nothing . Picked the wrong day to get cheap.

[mysaladdays]

I changed my mind at last minute on R4. Played it cheap, STRAIGHT....once I saw Luxembourg I was not impressed with him for a win anyway
COMPLETED:52150-17c0d RAS #4 $1 Trifecta 5, WT, 4, WT, 1 none $1.00
$154.50
+ $153.50

[eye123]

Jun 21, 2023 10:35:05 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

I changed my mind at last minute on R4. Played it cheap, STRAIGHT....once I saw Luxembourg I was not impressed with him for a win anyway
COMPLETED:52150-17c0d RAS #4 $1 Trifecta 5, WT, 4, WT, 1 none $1.00
$154.50
+ $153.50

[5wide]

Royal hunt cup , going 6 deep in a ex box 2,6,10,11,17,21

[5wide]

Jun 21, 2023 10:35:05 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

I changed my mind at last minute on R4. Played it cheap, STRAIGHT....once I saw Luxembourg I was not impressed with him for a win anyway
COMPLETED:52150-17c0d RAS #4 $1 Trifecta 5, WT, 4, WT, 1 none $1.00
$154.50
+ $153.50

nice ! keep it going .

[tenfurlongs]

Jun 21, 2023 10:35:05 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

I changed my mind at last minute on R4. Played it cheap, STRAIGHT....once I saw Luxembourg I was not impressed with him for a win anyway
COMPLETED:52150-17c0d RAS #4 $1 Trifecta 5, WT, 4, WT, 1 none $1.00
$154.50
+ $153.50

Wow, way to thread that needle! I guess the key to Mostahdaf is 10F on good-firm going. He just ran back to his Saudi race.




TW

[tenfurlongs]

R5- Went back in for EXBOX 2,8,25 and W/P on #25- Point Lynas (currently 29-1). 




TW

[eye123]

11, 13 / 7, 11, 13, 21 Swinger My lotto ticket  (I have no idea how many places out this wager plays)

[cherokeescot]

Exacta box 10,13,17,21

[shoes]

Well, there was your name play exacta.

[cherokeescot]

Jimi Hendrix knocks out Sonny Liston !

[shoes]

Spanky should have been all over it. Boxing and music.

[eye123]