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Royal Ascot Tuesday
Jun 19, 2023 15:23:26 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 19, 2023 15:23:26 GMT -5
Historically I don't do very well betting at this meeting. I rely too heavily on short-priced favorites, and overlook horses that are rounding into a peak effort on the day. Still, it's the best race meet in the world IMO, bar none.
Tuesday 20th June 2023
• 9.30am – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) 1m (straight) 4up
I think this race goes to Godolphin, but it's just as likely to be #9- Native Trail (5-1) on top. My only concern with him is that he appears to be drawn away from the speed in the high posts. He was the 2yo champion in 2021, and until he stubbed his toe against Baaeed in the Juddmonte, he was the top 3yo for the blue brigade.#7- Modern Games (9-5) is a GI-winner in four different countries, is a deserving but not overwhelming favorite against a top-notch field. Two that I like at a price are #2- Berkshire Shadow (20-1) which has improved as a 4yo and was a very good third in the Lockinge S. (GI) last time, and #3- Cash (20-1) which has been sneakily progressive through his four turf starts and turns back to a mile after running a good fourth behind Hukum and Desert Crown at Sandown when last seen. Spreading wide, expecting an upset but maybe Native Trail will be the one.
EX- 7,9/2,3,4,5,7,8,9,12
• 10.05am – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) 6f 2yo
If #3- Asadna (5-2) or #17- River Tiber (8-5) run back to their last starts, or improve (likely), one of them should win. #4- Bobsleigh (20-1) ran a blinder at Epsom and should be running on late, while #12- Givemethebeatboys (6-1) won a GIII at the Curragh and with Frankie aboard he'll be well supported too.
EX- 3,17/3,4,8,9,10,12,17
• 10.40am – King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) 5f 3up
Five furlong dashes at Ascot are like kryptonite for me, but #12- Highfield Princess (2-1) has been very good to me and is the class of the field. #19- Dramatised (5-1) has been highly-progressive through five starts, and won the Queen Mary over C&D last year. 3yo filly has a big chance in here for Karl Burke, along with stablemate #18- Marshman (20-1) which can run into the frame at a big price.
EX- 12,19/4,12,15,18,19
• 11.20am – St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) Old mile (round) 3yo
K.I.S.S. race, either #1- Chaldean (2-1) or #8- Paddington (2-1) wins this. Dettori vs. Moore, Juddmonte vs. Coolmore. #7- Mostabshir (8-1) could split them for Shadwell, his novice win at York was visually impressive. I really want to like #6- Isaac Shelby (8-1) but I think he needs softer ground for his best.
EX- 1,8/1,6,7,8
• 12:00pm – Ascot Stakes (Handicap) 2m 4f 4up
20 runners going 2 1/2 miles, pack a lunch. #6- Ahorsewithnoname (8-1) is a lightly-raced 8YO (?) which has done little wrong when he's been on the track. Nicky Henderson can leg one up, and William Buick gets a very interesting spare ride. Why not? #17- Law of The Sea (15-1) looks like he found a new gig as a two-miler this year, could be rounding into best form and gets a few pounds from the top ones. Will probably be near the sharp end of the stick, but that can work in these marathons. Spreading very wide, hoping for a big score.
EX- 6,17/2,5,6,9,11,15,17,20
• 12.35pm – Wolferton Stakes (Listed) 1m 2f 4up
I've always liked #1- Buckaroo (7-1) from Joseph O'Brien, and that potent Fastnet Rock x Galileo cross in his breeding. His two races this year were excellent, over softer conditions than he'll see today, but 1/2 length behind Anmaat in a GI points him out. #9- Francesco Clemente (6-1) just missed to King of Conquest last time, should come on for that debut run. Ten furlongs on good ground is his jam. Would love to see Rab Havlin get a Royal Ascot win in the Peter Brant colors. #6- Cadillac (10-1) is not without a chance in here, ran a big one last out for George Boughey, top Aussie rider James McDonald does the steering. Also, just remember that #16- Solid Stone (10-1) is Derby-winner Desert Crown's workmate, drops in class today after a steady diet of Group races.
EX- 1,9/1,3,6,9,10,16
• 1.10pm – Copper Horse Stakes (Handicap) 1m 6f 4up
I've been following #2- Sam Cooke (15-1) for a while now, he's best on the top of the ground and looks like a big overlay at the m/l odds. Speaking of overlays, #9- Alright Sunshine (50-1) was fourth in this race last year, is only two pounds higher now and he gets back on the good ground he wants. Might need a race off the long break. Boxing in a small exacta with two others, but definitely win/place possibilities on those two.
EXBOX- 2,3,4,9 PL- 2,9
TW
Tuesday 20th June 2023
• 9.30am – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) 1m (straight) 4up
I think this race goes to Godolphin, but it's just as likely to be #9- Native Trail (5-1) on top. My only concern with him is that he appears to be drawn away from the speed in the high posts. He was the 2yo champion in 2021, and until he stubbed his toe against Baaeed in the Juddmonte, he was the top 3yo for the blue brigade.#7- Modern Games (9-5) is a GI-winner in four different countries, is a deserving but not overwhelming favorite against a top-notch field. Two that I like at a price are #2- Berkshire Shadow (20-1) which has improved as a 4yo and was a very good third in the Lockinge S. (GI) last time, and #3- Cash (20-1) which has been sneakily progressive through his four turf starts and turns back to a mile after running a good fourth behind Hukum and Desert Crown at Sandown when last seen. Spreading wide, expecting an upset but maybe Native Trail will be the one.
EX- 7,9/2,3,4,5,7,8,9,12
• 10.05am – Coventry Stakes (Group 2) 6f 2yo
If #3- Asadna (5-2) or #17- River Tiber (8-5) run back to their last starts, or improve (likely), one of them should win. #4- Bobsleigh (20-1) ran a blinder at Epsom and should be running on late, while #12- Givemethebeatboys (6-1) won a GIII at the Curragh and with Frankie aboard he'll be well supported too.
EX- 3,17/3,4,8,9,10,12,17
• 10.40am – King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) 5f 3up
Five furlong dashes at Ascot are like kryptonite for me, but #12- Highfield Princess (2-1) has been very good to me and is the class of the field. #19- Dramatised (5-1) has been highly-progressive through five starts, and won the Queen Mary over C&D last year. 3yo filly has a big chance in here for Karl Burke, along with stablemate #18- Marshman (20-1) which can run into the frame at a big price.
EX- 12,19/4,12,15,18,19
• 11.20am – St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) Old mile (round) 3yo
K.I.S.S. race, either #1- Chaldean (2-1) or #8- Paddington (2-1) wins this. Dettori vs. Moore, Juddmonte vs. Coolmore. #7- Mostabshir (8-1) could split them for Shadwell, his novice win at York was visually impressive. I really want to like #6- Isaac Shelby (8-1) but I think he needs softer ground for his best.
EX- 1,8/1,6,7,8
• 12:00pm – Ascot Stakes (Handicap) 2m 4f 4up
20 runners going 2 1/2 miles, pack a lunch. #6- Ahorsewithnoname (8-1) is a lightly-raced 8YO (?) which has done little wrong when he's been on the track. Nicky Henderson can leg one up, and William Buick gets a very interesting spare ride. Why not? #17- Law of The Sea (15-1) looks like he found a new gig as a two-miler this year, could be rounding into best form and gets a few pounds from the top ones. Will probably be near the sharp end of the stick, but that can work in these marathons. Spreading very wide, hoping for a big score.
EX- 6,17/2,5,6,9,11,15,17,20
• 12.35pm – Wolferton Stakes (Listed) 1m 2f 4up
I've always liked #1- Buckaroo (7-1) from Joseph O'Brien, and that potent Fastnet Rock x Galileo cross in his breeding. His two races this year were excellent, over softer conditions than he'll see today, but 1/2 length behind Anmaat in a GI points him out. #9- Francesco Clemente (6-1) just missed to King of Conquest last time, should come on for that debut run. Ten furlongs on good ground is his jam. Would love to see Rab Havlin get a Royal Ascot win in the Peter Brant colors. #6- Cadillac (10-1) is not without a chance in here, ran a big one last out for George Boughey, top Aussie rider James McDonald does the steering. Also, just remember that #16- Solid Stone (10-1) is Derby-winner Desert Crown's workmate, drops in class today after a steady diet of Group races.
EX- 1,9/1,3,6,9,10,16
• 1.10pm – Copper Horse Stakes (Handicap) 1m 6f 4up
I've been following #2- Sam Cooke (15-1) for a while now, he's best on the top of the ground and looks like a big overlay at the m/l odds. Speaking of overlays, #9- Alright Sunshine (50-1) was fourth in this race last year, is only two pounds higher now and he gets back on the good ground he wants. Might need a race off the long break. Boxing in a small exacta with two others, but definitely win/place possibilities on those two.
EXBOX- 2,3,4,9 PL- 2,9
TW
