Early Belmont thoughts

[mysaladdays]

Someone just sent me the updated *early* BRIS PPs.  
Kingsbarns, Reincarnate, Arabian Lion, Sun Thunder are no longer being considered for the Belmont Stakes. 

The following 11 horses are listed on these updated early PPs:

Edit:   06/05 for scratches

ANGEL OF EMPIRE
ARCANGELO
TAPIT TRICE
FORTE
TAPIT SHOES
PROVE WORTHY
HIT SHOW
NATIONAL TREASURE
RAISE CAIN
RED ROUTE ONE
IL MIRACOLO


Assuming a dry track, I have tossed Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire from my WIN spot (has nothing to do with using in exotics though).    

also on the chopping block for the win spot:
Arcangelo - will carry 8 extra pounds more than he ever has in any race.  This "may" prove significant in a 12F race, whereas in shorter race maybe not.  I will have to watch him on the surface before deciding.
Forte - strikes me as a Hofburg type.  Could win or run 2nd/3rd. 

Will have to know weather before proceeding. 

[mysaladdays]

Tapit Shoes for Cox is officially entered the Belmont today. Jose Ortiz will ride.
I believe that Prove Worthy for Pletcher is not "definite" yet.  I assume waiting for clearance re Forte.  I put these 2 horses in red today, 6/01. 


So here's what I got so far, if this helps anybody who is getting a head start on a little capping:  Edited 6/05 for scratches:


Angel of Empire / Flavien Prat / Brad Cox / Albaugh Family Stables

Arcangelo / Javier Castellano / Jena Antonucci / Blue Rose Farm

Forte / Irad Ortiz, Jr. / Todd Pletcher / Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable  

Hit Show / Manny Franco / Brad Cox / Gary and Mary West

Il Miracolo / Marcos Meneses / Antonio Sano / Alexandres

National Treasure / John Velazquez / Bob Baffert / SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan

Raise Cain / Junior Alvarado / Ben Colebrook / Andrew Warren & Rania Warren

Red Route One / Joel Rosario / Steve Asmussen / Winchell Thoroughbreds

Tapit Trice / Luis Saez / Todd Pletcher / Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable

Tapit Shoes /Jose Ortiz/ Brad Cox / Spendthrift Farm, Steve Landers Racing, Martin Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Ten Strike Racing, Jim Bakke, Titletown Racing, Kueber Racing, Big Easy Racing, Winners Win, and Michael Caruso

Prove Worthy/ no rider / Todd Pletcher /  Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable (not definite yet)

[shoes]

I am leaning to Angel Of Empire as my A, he ran very well in Kentucky and has now run very well on 4 different tracks. Finished well last out and probably sits closer to the pace if the pace is slow.

As B's I have Hit show who ran deceptively well in the Derby and is rested and ready, and Arcangelo. Mysalad's points about weight carried (plus first time 2 turns) are not inconsequential but he's improving and owns that stakes win at the track. The odds on both Hit Show and Arcangelo should be very good too.

By implication I am playing against Forte and Tapit Trice. Don't like the layoff for Forte and not sure about the distance for him. As for Tapit Trice, just not buying he has to win the Belmont because he's a Tapit and we've seen that movie before. This is a different movie! Or at least I'm playing it that way.

[merasmag]

I'm knot stopping my arcangelo train
at least knot this week...

[Badactor]

Jun 1, 2023 18:49:32 GMT -5 shoes said:

"deceptively well" and "rested and ready"

I like the cut of your jib, sir.

When I think Belmont, I think New York.
When I think New York, I think Broadway.
When I think Broadway, I think Hit Show.

Start spreading the news...

[merasmag]

lol...how much are we going to lower his odds? .00025?
please wait until the LAST possible minute peeps!

[mysaladdays]

Jun 1, 2023 18:49:32 GMT -5 shoes said:

As B's I have Hit show who ran deceptively well in the Derby and is rested and ready, and Arcangelo. Mysalad's points about weight carried (plus first time 2 turns) are not inconsequential but he's improving and owns that stakes win at the track. The odds on both Hit Show and Arcangelo should be very good too.

On pedigree alone, I am "tempted" to put arcangelo in all spots on my ticket......BUT....... just as some who had "foundation problems" with Mage, I feel the same way about Arcangelo.   His lack of foundation in combination with carrying so much more weight than he has ever carried just has me a bit shy to use him in the WIN spot.  This is 12F, not 9.5 or even 10. 

I think this is a really good field though, for 12F in June.  

[Badactor]

David's Kentucky Derby pics of my Belmont pick...
HIT SHOW --- 5th in the Derby - 1st in the Belmont?



Hoping the other horses & jockeys have a great view of HIT SHOW's back end at the finish!

[cherokeescot]

Forte with his customary pre Triple Crown race stumble 😳





At 2:17

[mysaladdays]

Hit Show looks like a monster to my eye. However, I would like to see a video workout of him AT Belmont.....do you think we will get one?

Also a photo of both Tapit Trice and Hit Show for comparison.

I am not really a Tapit Trice fan, certainly not for the win, although I wouldn't leave him off my ticket entirely, as I think the jockey/horse combo is perfect and I love his gallop-outs.

 
But right now I am liking these 3:  Hit Show, Raise Cain, maybe Arcangelo


Need to see more videos!

[Badactor]

How about some trainer talk?

[mysaladdays]

BTW, one of the best rides in the KY Derby was on Hit Show. very few jockeys and horses would have been able to overcome that #1 hole, not being a speed horse, where getting position matters in a race like the Derby.

I tend to look at trouble lines, and both he and Raise Cain had to "do more" than just run fast. The KY Derby requires a certain kind of horse, and it's not always the same kind of horse as the Belmont requires.

[merasmag]

Jun 4, 2023 11:28:21 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

Forte with his customary pre Triple Crown race stumble 😳





At 2:17

i've never pretended to have a great eye for works but sumx i can c things
he started to begin to stumble at 130 and slowed down considerably b4 the actual "stumble"
i think he will scratch and won't play him even if he doesn't

[mysaladdays]

My thoughts on Forte.....I have always LOVED Forte. That horse is nothing if not pure CLASS. I mean, I really love even seeing FORTE walking around.



I might say I am not happy with the way he's been managed, but I'm not a horse trainer and I do know that horses can go any which way over the course of a year. It's not easy peasy and managing horses of this caliber is a tough task. with many unforseen events along the way.   Racing has an element of luck to it, as well. . 


So many getting off him due to the meloxicam overage and then the bruised foot and now a long time since he has raced.

The funny part is that he may end up being "the value" in this race LOL

I truly wish Pletcher a lot of luck with him.   


I had a wonderful surgeon 9 years ago who saved my life,  He was chief of surgery.   I had to go back recently and he now has the most inept office staff I have ever dealt with.   Even his P.A. is awful.   I honestly think they don't know what is going on half the time.    Maybe Mr. Pletcher, with those overages pending in FL now, needs better barn staff.  It's possible, right?   Something isn't going smoothly 

[eye123]

Exacta wagering available     (period) .....cash your $2,5$,$10 exacta tickets at the $2,$5,$10 cashier windows.  (boy how times have changed  lol  )

[mysaladdays]

Jun 6, 2023 11:23:07 GMT -5 eye123 said:

View Attachment

This is so cool~

[merasmag]

official program 25cent (no cent key here)

[cherokeescot]

Who has got the best smoke numbers ?

[1hooper]

Jun 6, 2023 18:45:08 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

Who has got the best smoke numbers ?

Ramp up the clenbuterol testing.

[merasmag]

at this point i think they should just postpone it a week
if nbc will let them

[merasmag]

Jun 5, 2023 22:58:53 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

My thoughts on Forte.....I have always LOVED Forte. That horse is nothing if not pure CLASS. I mean, I really love even seeing FORTE walking around.



I might say I am not happy with the way he's been managed, but I'm not a horse trainer and I do know that horses can go any which way over the course of a year. It's not easy peasy and managing horses of this caliber is a tough task. with many unforseen events along the way.   Racing has an element of luck to it, as well. . 


So many getting off him due to the meloxicam overage and then the bruised foot and now a long time since he has raced.

The funny part is that he may end up being "the value" in this race LOL

I truly wish Pletcher a lot of luck with him.   


I had a wonderful surgeon 9 years ago who saved my life,  He was chief of surgery.   I had to go back recently and he now has the most inept office staff I have ever dealt with.   Even his P.A. is awful.   I honestly think they don't know what is going on half the time.    Maybe Mr. Pletcher, with those overages pending in FL now, needs better barn staff.  It's possible, right?   Something isn't going smoothly 

i go to 2 different mds in the same practice for different injuries and appendages. one sent me to the other to see if a certain knee mri warranted surgery, but the pa kept talking about my wrist and it takes very little to raise my hbp. it was obvious my knee doesn't require surgery but he did the injection the md i prefer could have done just as well. i told him to his face if i did have surgery i'd be afraid i'd wake up with wrist surgery instead of knee surgery...so he asked me 5x which knee he was injecting just to let me know he knew i said he was an a-hole...which is why i was so upset i got shuffled to him in the first place (i like giving NICE doctors my insurance millions)

[mysaladdays]

" it was obvious my knee doesn't require surgery but he did the injection the md i prefer could have done just as well. i told him to his face if i did have surgery i'd be afraid i'd wake up with wrist surgery instead of knee surgery"

I moved my reply to off topic so as not to clutter a horse racing topic but I think it's a good convo so I replied there. 

[merasmag]

www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/nyra-cancels-thursday-training/

[merasmag]

Jun 7, 2023 0:40:50 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

" it was obvious my knee doesn't require surgery but he did the injection the md i prefer could have done just as well. i told him to his face if i did have surgery i'd be afraid i'd wake up with wrist surgery instead of knee surgery"

I moved my reply to off topic so as not to clutter a horse racing topic but I think it's a good convo so I replied there. 

ummm...u were the one that put it under a racing topic
knot me

i think i will put a lidocaine patch on my knee now and start over 2morrow



I had a wonderful surgeon 9 years ago who saved my life, He was chief of surgery. I had to go back recently and he now has the most inept office staff I have ever dealt with. Even his P.A. is awful. I honestly think they don't know what is going on half the time. Maybe Mr. Pletcher, with those overages pending in FL now, needs better barn staff. It's possible, right? Something isn't going smoothly

[merasmag]

this race does knot count in my mind (r u around littlemind?...inside comment)
just the travel could be a nightmare
i guess people that look at the sun thru pollution don't care?

[turffan]

Sticking with Angel of Empire. Blinkers and slower pace should keep him closer and I still think he has the best kick especially when he doesn't have to negotiate an 18-horse field.

[merasmag]

sticking with the other a

[mysaladdays]

I don't have picks this year. Just thoughts. What is fun is to see how wrong or how right I am about stuff as I read my thoughts AFTER the race. I can play races any day of the week with odds of 5/2, 7/2, 3-1......I say go for the gusto for the Belmont.

Arcangelo - carrying 8 more pounds than he's ever carried going 2 turns for first time, further than he's ever run.. Beat a sprinter in last. He could be the 2nd coming like Rock Your World was supposed to be.....so much potential with that pedigree.

National Treasure - barely got by Blazing Sevens in the Preakness.

Angel of Empire - wins at tracks rolled hard as cement (CD KY Derby; Oaklawn AR Derby) so not sure how he will like the looser surface at . Adding blinks, even though he has been working in them, has me nervous. I also have questions about his stamina. But based on his workouts, you have to think he may clunk up but I'm on the fence using him unless I play a superfecta.

Forte - Everyone says he hasn't improved. My stance is that he doesn't have to. He was already the Class of the field before the KY Derby and too bad he didn't get to run there and show it. Rider has 2 wins and a place in this race in past. Only other riders with that kind of record is on Tapit Shoes (3 places) and Red Route One (2 wins, 1 place, 3 shows). Sore foot and stumbles may make him a play against for some. My gut tells me not to go for "oh look, new shiny" shooters, and to keep my loyalty. To to me looks like one of the most beautifully conformed horses I've seen in a long time.

Tapits: out of all the tapit descendants, I like these 2 the best:
Hit Show - ran a respectable 5th in the , then flattened out. His rider can and will do better this time, having a win and a show on this track in this race and the right pedigree. Ditto Tapit Shoes. I will make a few different tickets using them as keys.

Long shot bombers:
--Il Miracolo. Love his work leading up to this race, albeit at GP. Been waiting to see if his problem is similar to country house, i.e. he needs more distance and runs out of track. This is his chance. Isn't Sano known as the longshot king? A well known subscription clocker only gave out 2 four star works......he was one of them.
---Red Route One has done everything right, but has been failed by his trainer with equipment changes, and by his jockeys with poor rides. When he decides to close, he has a stellar turn of foot and I do not think AOE or Arcangelo could do better. His problem now is he's got Rosario on his back, who appears to be going thru something.

Will wait for post parade and final odds and have 3 different cheap tri tickets for this.
Hit Show, Tapit Shoes, Forte + feed in some longshots or Hit Show, Tapit Shoes, Tapit Trice + feed in some of my longshots

[eye123]

[merasmag]

Jun 9, 2023 17:01:33 GMT -5 merasmag said:

sticking with the other a

talk is cheap
winnerwinnerchickendinner

fajitas were grate!