My KY Derby thoughts

[mysaladdays]

Toss from win spot: (special angle I use based on pedigree)
Mage, Angel of Empire, Two Phil's, Cyclone Mischief

Other special notes:
----If playing a superfecta, add King Russell to bottom of ticket, as the last horse to make the KY Derby gate often leaps onto a KY Derby ticket
--- Reincarnate got the same fast work Shug gave Code of Honor in 2019

Lasix free and/or homebred exotics ticket w/7 horses I like, no order yet:
Rocket Can - longshot bomber
Confidence Game
Disarm
Hit Show
Two Phil's
Mandarin Hero
Reincarnate

Special Gimmick Singles/Exactas I will play for cheap:
Exacta box that mirrors my Jockey contest picks: Derma + Reincarnate
Exacta box homebreds (there are only 2 homebreds in the KY Derby this year) : Hit Show/Disarm
My birthday horse: Mandarin Hero (foaled on my birthday)
My bomber longshot: Rocket Can

[damascus]

i am with you on Rocket Can, even more so now that Forte scratched. i had posted this in another unrelated chain so thought i would repost here and update it.

This just keeps getting curiouser and curiouser. We are officially in the derby twilight zone. So here is a scenario that is a reverse chaos scenario. Last year was standard chaos where pace was suicidal, melted down leaving door open for most unexpected of long odds late runner.

So the reverse of this is an unduly slow non suicidal pace where horses are backing up like a marathon turf route. Instead of the unexpceted closer, here, appearing to snatch victory at the last second we have an unexpected front running type at long odds. Because of the ridiculously slow pace our winner is allowed to remain in contention. The winner is a horse that is not thought to be one of the obvious superior front runners but instead an overlooked runner at long odds. Could it be Rocket Can who fits that bill? Addiing blinkers before the Derby is a typically a venture into the unknown. [BUT that certainly helped longshot winner Pretty Mischievous win in the Oaks yesterday!] its a 17% win and 47% in the money move when Mott does it first time.

At 35-1 presently he is overlooked.

He has the highest Bris speed rating of any of the horses that have run at CDowns with a 96. Mott trains, Junior Alvarado rides so connections are very good. He has been running against Forte regularly in Florida and has been competitive. Last race in Arkansas he finished 4th but only 1/2 length out of second. Nobody was beating Angel that day.

From a Thorograph perspective he is not the highest number but has paired his top and appears to still have room to improve. Distance does not seem to be an issue. His numbers are competitive, his running lines appear competitive and his change to blinkers (normally somthing not well thought of coming into the derby) could be the key to unlock his best effort in this uncertain pace scenario.

In the Kerry Thomas writeup, RC gets a favorable evaluation but there is a postscript premised upon the additon of blinkers which the author notes makes RC the X factor in this race.  Like many longshot gambles that payoff, it is the "trying something new" that elevates the horse and rewards the bettor.  I believe blinkers will allow RC to run a career best race.

For people who worry about the 17th post position, yesterday's scratch of Skinner moved Rocket Can out of that spot into #16 hole. With Forte out he is now in 15th spot. Everything is falling into place.

Last thing, it looks like this work after his last race probably with blinkers added is a good sign:

*13Apr CD 4f ft :46.3 B 1/34 followed up with a 59.85f. HIs works and his prior Bris numbers show he has an affinity for Cdowns. He is a horse that can run close to the pace and can carry his speed over a distance. He won the holy bull and was 2d to Forte in the Ftn of Youth. With Forte out, the new blinkers to give him more focus and sharpen his speed and a cagey jock on board coming from an outer post, Rocket is the sort of horse in this expected controlled early pace race who can be perfectly positioned and be there at the end.

I am on board seeing Mott get his first derby win not handed to him on an objection!

[mysaladdays]

Thanks for the information. I liked him before Forte scratched but you're right, better now.

My Derby rule is no horse less than 5-1 on top. I was wllling to grant FORTE a 4-1, but that's Forte. If Angel of Empire wins then I will let him beat me.

I am a little concerned about Disarm because he's really more of a "4 year old horse" but I like the homebreds so had to include him. Probably not ripe yet

Now that I have a little extra moolah, I might add Raise Cain, and Sun Thunder to bottom of a superfecta along with King Russell, but thinking I"m not playing a superfecta anyway, too much chaos in this race, and since I would only do it for 0.50 and not a dollar.