Learning from the past - Derma

[MorganEdge]

In 2001, Song and a Prayer set a record for the first half mile, Congaree and Point Break were close to the pace and couldn't hold on as Monarchos and Invisible Ink passed them in the stretch. The next year all the trainers told their jockeys, don't run with the speed and War Emblem went the first half mile in :47 and held on for the win. Last year, Summer is Tomorrow set an aggressive 45 and change pace for the half, and the closers once again picked up the pieces.

Will history repeat itself?  I'm betting yes and I will be on the Japanese horse Derma Sotogake to win the Derby from the front. I don't think the 17 post will hurt as horses 13-16 don't look eager to get involved up front, so he should have a good early path. I Will definitely have an exacta box on Derma Sotogake/Verifying to see if the two speed horses can wire this field.

Yes, I know about the history of Japanese horses and UAE Derby participants, but history holds until it doesn't (no gelding has ever one, no horse who hasn't won as a 2YO, etc,).

[5wide]

Very possible situation, but i think Kingbarns or Verifying will benefit most from a moderate pace.

[damascus]

I think this is a pretty fair analysis Morgan.  i have been thinking this is like a reverse chaos theory sort of the opposite of last year.  Here everyone will be very cautious the first 200 yards out not wanting to end up with the ridiculous pace of last year.  So i have been focused on identifying which horses can and will go for the lead and actually are capable of such.  So i end up with 

Verifying and Two Phils as my top two picks to win this outright.  I see both considering taking lead and easing off the throttle and at worst pressing.  Dont know if Derma is true front runner but i will expect him to be within 5 lengths of lead at all times.  Will use 2-4 spots.  Both Verifying and 2Phls come into the race with lifetime best Bris, Tgraph and Beyer numbers which are at or near top of the class.

Tapit Trice will be in super box on basis of his talent and being in peak form.  He has highest Trgraph # coming in.  Forte will be a top 5 finisher based on his body of work and he is just a talented individual.  Dont like him for top two spots though.

I also look for Reincarnate to be in top three and suspect, Johnny V will consider going to the lead should everyone else be too timid.  He has done it before and has to have a real confidence knowing what the race is all about.  Reincarnate is my super long shot to make the tri and super.  I will toss in Raise Cain for lower rung as well because i really like Gerrardo Corrales on longshots in KY.

Last one i see in super mix as longshot is Continuaar based solely on his trainer who pulled off stunning upset at breeders cup two years or so back at Santa anita.  i will buy a few more to fill out the 4th spot in super but will stick with those above for top 3 spots as noted.

i expect much slower pace this go round and believe on Derby day you rely on the best jocks especially those who are generally best riders in KY.

Dam


TRI   2,3/2,3,5,7,16/2,3,5,7,14,15,16,19

[Deleted]

2ps keeps moving up in my mind
signed,
chicago

[damascus]

Going to add Mandarin to the mix now as he ran a heckuva race in SA derby. Wont be an early pace factor but noteworthy that he is top Timeform US rating (tied with 2PHLS) in the race. Also very high beyer hmmm. Hope they keep Kaz on board for the Derby....

[ski]

I'm more clueless this year than usual boys...

[grommet]

Good stuff Morgan, interesting theory about the fast-paced Derbies "bouncing" the following year. I'm relying on honest enough fractions to set up Angel of Empire's turn of foot, but I'm compelled to use at least one forwardly-placed horse - I like the fact that Kingsbarns seems to be versatile and has shown he can handle large fields (Derma has as well). In the end I always toss the long-distance shippers. It may eventually bite me, but I'm going to make a UAE horse prove me wrong before I start considering them in the KY Derby.

[damascus]

This just keeps getting curiouser and curiouser. We are officially in the derby twilight zone. So here is a scenario that is a reverse chaos scenario. Last year was standard chaos where pace was suicidal, melted down leaving door open for most unexpected of long odds late runner.

So the reverse of this is an unduly slow non suicidal pace where horses are backing up like a marathon turf route. Instead of the unexpceted closer, here, appearing to snatch victory at the last second we have an unexpected front running type at long odds. Because of the ridiculously slow pace our winner is allowed to remain in contention. The winner is a horse that is not thought to be one of the obvious superior front runners but instead an overlooked runner at long odds. Could it be Rocket Can who fits that bill? Addiing blinkers before the Derby is a venture into the unknown. At 35-1 presently he is overlooked.

He has the highest Bris speed rating of any of the horses that have run at CDowns with a 96. Mott trains, Junior Alvarado rides so connections are very good. He has been running against Forte regularly in Florida and has been competitive. Last race in Arkansas he finished 4th but only 1/2 length out of second. Nobody was beating Angel that day.

From a Thorograph perspective he is not the highest number but has paired his top and appears to still have room to improve. Distance does not seem to be an issue. His numbers are competitive, his running lines appear competitive and his change to blinkers (normally somthing not well thought of coming into the derby) could be the key to unlock his best effort in this uncertain pace scenario.

For people who worry about the 17th post position, today's scratch of Skinner moved Rocket Can out of that spot into #16 hole.  Everything is falling into place. 

Last thing, it looks like this work after his last race probably with blinkers added is a good sign:

*13Apr CD 4f ft :46.3 B 1/34

I think i am on board seeing Mott get his first derby win not handed to him on an objection!   

[shoes]

It's good to see the Chicago guys posting.

[damascus]

Its that time of year, coming out of the woods.

[mysaladdays]

So I was at Oaklawn all day today.  I was yakking to a guy at the apron, and told him I liked the japanese horses and he pulled this out of his wallet and gave it to me.  (1000 yen = about $7.50)   Guess he had just gotten back from there. 

I guess I have to put a few singles on the Japanese horses since I take this as an omen