2023 Derby Conduit Mares

[longshot]

Below is the Profile and the Speed & Stamina for the 2023 Derby entries

                               Profile

Forte-----------------11-2-5-1-11-------Speed--13--Stamina--12**

Practical Move--------6-5-5-11-4--------Speed--11--Stamina--15

Angel of Empire-------6-4-4-11-3--------Speed--10--Stamina--14

Tapit Trice-----------10-6-1-7-7---------Speed--16--Stamina--14**

Two Phil's------------4-4-8-8-5----------Speed--7---Stamina--13

Lord Miles------------9-2-4-8-8----------Speed--11--Stamina--16

Derma Sotogake------8-2-5-9-6----------Speed--10--Stamina--15

Kingsbarns-----------9-2-7-8-5----------Speed--11--Stamina--13

Raise Cain-----------9-2-5-4-7-----------Speed--11--Stamina--11**

Rocket Can----------5-7-7-8-2-----------Speed--12--Stamina--10**

Hit Show-------------6-2-4-6-8----------Speed--8---Stamina--14

Confidence Game----2-2-7-4-9-----------Speed-4---Stamina--13

Verifying------------9-1-6-7-6-----------Speed--10--Stamina-13

Sun Thunder--------5-9-6-7-4-----------Speed--14--Stamina--11**

Mage---------------7-8-2-9-8-----------Speed--15--Stamina--17

Disarm--------------7-3-5-9-6-----------Speed--10--Stamina--15

Continuar-----------4-6-3-12-5----------Speed--10--Stamina--17

Reincarnate---------6-5-5-7-8-----------Speed--11--Stamina--15

Jace's Road---------12-1-3-4-11---------Speed--13--Stamina--15

Skinner-------------6-5-0-6-11----------Speed--11--Stamina--17

Cyclone Mischief----6-7-4-7-4-----------Speed-13---Stamina--11**

**Does not qualify because of its Speed Rating being greater than or equal to its Stamina.
Only one Derby horse since 2000 has won the Derby with a Speed Rating Greater than or equal to its Stamina Rating and this was in 2020 when the Derby was run
in September instead of May. Only one horse has run second since 2000 with a Speed Rating greater than its Stamina Rating. Six horses have run third during this time.

No horse has run First or Second since 2000 with a number of 2 or less in its Profile in the Fourth wing of the Profile. Forte has a 10-2-5-1-11 .

If you would like a copy of the Conduit Mares Profile & Speed & Stamina of all horses in the money since 2000 send me a message with your email address and I'll sent it to you.

[shoes]

Is this from the old Steve Roman system or something else?

[1hooper]

Bill Lathrop developed a system to designate famous high performing mares with points related to sprint vs. stamina. A descendent of one or more of these mares will have a profile that is calulcated and shows how much influence the females in the anscestry have on their race ability.

[cherokeescot]

I can see that the first two numbers combine to make the Speed total and the last two for the Stamina but what does the third number represent ?

[ozzy]

This looks like the old system used to create the Dosage Index and CDI (center of distribution index if I recall correctly?).

I did look at dosage and seems odd compared to this as only Angel of Empire was an outlier at 9.00. Times have changed..

And this really doesn't help me narrow things pre-draw as currently, taking all numbers into account, I think Angel of Empire is the most likely winner. I want to bet Verifying and Two Phil's to be in the mix based on numbers (Two Phil's best last out, consistency, with Verifying as improving sort, trainign well, and ready to peak in 3rd start of the year. I am also drawn to Skinner for some reason and will likley only play in exactas and tris as covered in future wager at 45-1.

[bobtailnag]

I spent a little time in the Dosage system yesterday, always looking for an obscure long shot angle. None of the horses had any Professional" points, Raise Cain has 3 "Solid" points and Kingsbarns has 2.

I never thought of using it for fillies but Botanical has 2 "Solid" points and I think I'll drop a few coins there - you never can tell might happen.  Taxet has 1.

[bobtailnag]

Longshot - do you have an updated system for dosage?

FORTE (USA) dkb/br. C, 2020 {1-x} DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79 - 7 Starts, 6 Wins, 0 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: $2,409,830

[longshot]

No Bobtailnag I don't use the male Dosage any more since Dr Roman shut down. The system has not been updated for a long time.
That why I started with the female Conduit Mares.

[shoes]

May 1, 2023 11:53:37 GMT -5 longshot said:

No Bobtailnag I don't use the male Dosage any more since Dr Roman shut down. The system has not been updated for a long time.
That why I started with the female Conduit Mares.

Thanks long shot. Now that you mention it I heard that no new Chefs de race had been named in a long time, so I guess that no one took on the task of continuing/updating dosage. If true, to the extent that dosage is is still listed on the pedigree online thoroughbred database, that information is not really "accurate."?

[bobtailnag]

Shoes - hears the latest list of the new Chefs-de-race.



2019

Steve Miller, steward of the dosage pedigree analysis system, announced in October the designation of six new chefs-de-race—stallions whose progeny have shown compelling proclivities at specific distances.

Three years had passed since the last designations were announced that included Galileo , Cape Cross, and Pivotal . Such a long time between drinks annoys some breeders who believe stallions that deserve "chef" status need to be identified sooner. The pace, they believe, should be faster in the digital age.

Drain the Clock
Miller said he quite understands the desire for a quicker turnaround in designations that might provide marketing clout to a stallion, but the dosage system—to be most effective—isn't quick. It's founded on proven ability over time.

"People are always clamoring for a timetable. We really only add them when we need to," Miller said. "Now three years was a long time to leave it, but you don't want to rush it. We wait until we are almost compelled to put them on, and we know what kind of effect they are having on the breed."

The newest additions to the chefs-de-race roster are Darshaan (Solid), Dubawi (Intermediate/Solid), Fasliyev (Brilliant), Linamix (Classic/Solid), Shamardal (Intermediate/Classic), and Unbridled's Song (Intermediate).efs

[shoes]

thanks bobtail.

[cindyloujazz]

Thank you, longshot. This is very interesting information. I think I will change my wagers based on this and the thorogragh numbers.

[mysaladdays]

I was on a forum back when Bill Lathrop had already developed his Modern Conduit Mares system.  He often bantered back and forth about horses his system uncovered (Animal Kingdom being one).    That site is dead now.  I don't even know if Bill is still alive, but he aged out. 

 I learned from him and others how to read these profiles although I am still a fledgling and never received the final copy of his book, noow out of print.

He felt (rightly) that Steve Roman was doing for the sire side what somebody needed to do for the dam side.

What you can get out of this are things like, if the sire is speed dominant, then you would have to look on the female side to find the stamina to carry that speed at 10F.

And of course, vice versa. Sire side stamina has to have some speed influence on the mare side. 

On the female side (you can see that more clearly in the triads, i.e. certain traid configurations you just come to see, from repetition, of what works and what doesn't.  You usually want increaing numbers in a triad series).  And one thing is that usually a horse with more speed than stamina on the mare side of things do not Win KY Derbies. 

After a few years of looking at other Derby winners (need a subscription to pedigree query which is cheap to get the conduit mare profiles) and once you do that for a number of years even if you have no idea what you are doing, you do tend to see a "pattern emerge".  If you are someone who sees patterns 

Like anything, it's a tool. I use it somewhat, as well as the potent female families from the Lowe system. (there are lists of these for the Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont).   Who won and what female families are best.   Like 23-b is quite potent, so is Forte's 1-X.   It can't hurt to have as many tools in your toolshed as possible. 

Pretty sure I've discussed conduit mares profiles here in a few of my posts where i did use those numbers as examples of why I liked a horse.  

In the Roman theoretical system, horses with certain DI's (dosage indexes) do seem to have trouble finding the winner's circle.  Again, if you spend part of the year during racing's "down time" you can learn a lot by look at pedigrees and both sire and conduit mare profiles.   It's a good winter activity that will aid you.  


And bobtail is correct, Steve Miller is updating the conduits for the sire side.  If  you look on Ped query you will also see the drop down box next to Chefs List, Roman-Miller. 

But they also have the ANZ list, if you toggle that drop down, for horses like Winx, etc.  who do not race in the U.S. 

TO be honest, I stopped talking about any of this as many traditional handicappers were rude and bashed me, so I really try to stick with tradiitonal capping when making posts on thee wild west of the internet.   I understand not everyyone believes in every theory  (large heart, Rasmussen Factor, etc. )  I happen to think that certain pre-potent broodmare sires and such in a pedigree w/in 5 generations is something to be considered, as are Broodmare of the Year horses.   their successes can't be argued with and one has to think they are passing some of that down somewhere in the DNA.   

[mysaladdays]

Apr 30, 2023 19:46:57 GMT -5 longshot said:

Only one horse has run second since 2000 with a Speed Rating greater than its Stamina Rating. Six horses have run third during this time.

Correct. 

Since most prep races are 9F, horses with more speed than stamina do win prep races, and the present point system, while curing us of true "sprinters" hasn't really cured the ones that "hit the wall at 8.5-9F,  which is their truly comfortable distance and why they win prep races.  


I will however encourage you to go back to also using the roman sire-side dosage profile.  They really are updating it.   As I noted, if you have tons of speed in the mare side,  and not a lot of stamina in the sire side to balance that, you just end up with one of those "speedsters" who may hit the wall at 9F.    Ditto, the opposite, a ton of mare stamina not balanced by sire speed you will end up with a horse who can "run all day". but they may not get to the wire fast enough to hit the exotics (those are better left for the Belmont stakes). 

I think the sire/mare percentage would be about 60% to 40%, or maybe vice versa, but every horse is going to get SOMETHING from both sides of their bloodlines. 

[merasmag]

May 2, 2023 19:59:19 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Apr 30, 2023 19:46:57 GMT -5 longshot said:

Only one horse has run second since 2000 with a Speed Rating greater than its Stamina Rating. Six horses have run third during this time.

Correct. 

Since most prep races are 9F, horses with more speed than stamina do win prep races, and the present point system, while curing us of true "sprinters" hasn't really cured the ones that "hit the wall at 8.5-9F,  which is their truly comfortable distance and why they win prep races.  


I will however encourage you to go back to also using the roman sire-side dosage profile.  They really are updating it.   As I noted, if you have tons of speed in the mare side,  and not a lot of stamina in the sire side to balance that, you just end up with one of those "speedsters" who may hit the wall at 9F.    Ditto, the opposite, a ton of mare stamina not balanced by sire speed you will end up with a horse who can "run all day". but they may not get to the wire fast enough to hit the exotics (those are better left for the Belmont stakes). 

I think the sire/mare percentage would be about 60% to 40%, or maybe vice versa, but every horse is going to get SOMETHING from both sides of their bloodlines. 

yeah...my eyes have always glazed over reading about dosage, roman and inbreeding 3x to dr. fager etc. but your comment is relatively simple to grasp the concept of and sumthing that just seems common sense to me...i don't know why people use complicated formulas to say a horselet's daddy was fast or had a mother that was a mudder

etc.

[mysaladdays]

My eyes glaze over when I have to look at "splits" for 20 horses. In more than one race.

Then---------- after the race we get to hear stuff like "........and he just didn't get a clear path...." 

[merasmag]

i think charts show trouble lines 80% of the time
the other 20% i can live with these days
my vs has horselets in it that died 5 years ago
could be why my roi has gone down (possibly...lol)