docd
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"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
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Post by docd on Apr 29, 2023 9:29:00 GMT -5
Disarm ?
what say you
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
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Post by shoes on Apr 29, 2023 10:42:55 GMT -5
We go through this every year, but think the answer depends in part on the definition. In my mind it is the horse that gets a ton of buzz and is bet down below his fair value and who at least retrospectively, was not a key contender. I'm a little sensitive to it because back in the day the forum, or at least Timmye, cited Ten Most Wanted as the quintessential wise guy horse (2003, I think), I disputed it then and still do. He was not the favorite had the trip from hell (was body-slammed from both sides, and lost all chance. He later validated that he was in fact a very good horse, coming hard at and just barely losing to Classic Empire in the Belmont (the horse that had been the Derby favorite), and finishing wellhead of Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide
As for Disarm, he is getting a decent amount of buzz, but think he still goes off a long shot of 20-1 or more. So far I'm not sure who would fit my definition. Dermo Sotogake has been getting a lot of attention, but much of that has been unfavorable. Some have suggested he could even be the second choice but I don't think he will be.
Tapit Trice has been getting a lot of favorable buzz, but I think he is absolutely a key contender.
Verifying? I don't know- fair amount of buzz. Will be interested to hear other's responses.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 29, 2023 12:10:50 GMT -5
I thought thought that Mage was the wise-guy horse, just based on what I am seeing around and about. Or like you say, Derma Sotogake.
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lure
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Post by lure on Apr 29, 2023 12:22:04 GMT -5
Disarm ?
what say you
I think Skinner or Mage are the wise guys |
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Post by merasmag on Apr 29, 2023 15:28:40 GMT -5
Disarm ?
what say you
I think Skinner or Mage are the wise guys lol...i ...well...know 0 about skinner but if i qualify as a wise-guy my pick is mage to b in the super and i expect him at this point to be there i truly don't want a formful derby i wood rather go down swinging |
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 29, 2023 21:28:01 GMT -5
Confidence Game earned a bullet for his workout Saturday at Churchill Downs. The breeze could be felt across the country even the day before, especially in Las Vegas.
Before he covered five furlongs in 59.0 seconds for the fastest of 54 such works, Confidence Game plunged from a best price of 40-1 to 22-1 on Saturday morning in the Nevada futures market for Kentucky Derby 2023.
“Yesterday afternoon we took solid action at a few numbers,” said Paul Zilm, the Circa Sports oddsmaker who incrementally took the son of Candy Ride from 40-1 to 12-1. “I can’t speak for the others, but ours was solely based on action.”
The Westgate SuperBook cut Confidence Game from 40-1 to 14-1. Caesars Sportsbook, which carries more liability since it was first to open Derby futures last fall, moved the Keith Desormeaux-trained colt from 30-1 to 22-1.
Training 10 weeks up to the Derby since he won the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn, Confidence Game went from 12th shortest to eighth among the top choices in Derby futures.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 30, 2023 8:59:44 GMT -5
Confidence Game is a real opinion divider. Unlikely that he will be a main play for me, But he is added to the rather long list of probably 6-8 that I plan to hook up on some Oaks/Derby doubles.
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 1, 2023 10:57:27 GMT -5
I think it will be Confidence Game and all for it! Get me better odds on others!!
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Post by mattcoll on May 4, 2023 10:15:35 GMT -5
Derma Sotogake
the confluence of recent japanese success, a soft pace, and no standouts in the field means this one goes off shorter than ML.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 4, 2023 10:21:31 GMT -5
Derma Sotogake the confluence of recent japanese success, a soft pace, and no standouts in the field means this one goes off shorter than ML. Think he will be 6 or 8-1. |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 4, 2023 12:19:12 GMT -5
Confidence Game is a real opinion divider. Unlikely that he will be a main play for me, But he is added to the rather long list of probably 6-8 that I plan to hook up on some Oaks/Derby doubles. I usually have a list of 6 horses that I mess around with in exotics for my KY Derby ticket. I always feel that is too many, but this year I may have to bump it up to 7 or 8.  You made me feel a little bit better about that, sharing your thoughts. |
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 6, 2023 7:37:42 GMT -5
$2.7 million in pool...
8-1 Derma
8-1 2Phils
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 6, 2023 7:44:32 GMT -5
Angel is favored in the Oaks/Derby will pays. Mattress Mack may have a hard decision to make, per the last 2 posts.
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Post by mysaladdays on May 6, 2023 20:08:26 GMT -5
Who DID Mattress Mack bet on?
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Post by merasmag on May 6, 2023 20:22:29 GMT -5
he bet on ttt and I bet on mage
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