Lexington Stakes @ Keeneland

[Badactor]

ODDS & ENTRIES

[1hooper]

That was their fifth race of the year. 4/16 1988. Forty Niner went on to run 13 times that year. Risen Star finished 3-1-1 in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont and was retired for $14 million stud duty,
Winning Colors Derby year.

[mysaladdays]

Very happy that Confidence Game will get a "conditioner" out of this. He needs this.

[Badactor]

[mysaladdays]

Reminder: this G3 1-1/16th race was won in 2022 by Tawny Port. Charismatic won it in 1999 and went on to win the KY Derby and Preakness and ran 3rd in the Belmont, and also won by and also won by Divining Rod (2015), G1 winner Collected (2016), Senior Investment (2017), and Owendale (2019), My Boy Jack (2018).

3 days from the race and I have no idea who is even running yet?

[Badactor]

Interesting...
PRAIRIE HAWK(S) supplements into the race.
(pay a little extra... expect a little more)
OVERNIGHTS

[shoes]

So Confidence Game did not enter.

[ozzy]

No Confidence Game and he will certainly be a toss for me in the Derby, trying to come in off something like 11 weeks off, not having raced since February 25th?? Unless the horse had an injury, needed time and is rounding back into form, I don't get it....I still wouldn't bet him off that scenario but this seesm nuts.

I don't get the angst over Disarm running in the Lexington either. He's had 2 lifetime starts and only one this year, 3 weeks ago in the LA Derby. He definitely needs the seasoning and experience, ran 3 weeks ago, and would have 3 weeks until the Derby. What's wrong with that? I feel like I am taking crazy pills listening to everyone spacing preps out and giving so much time in between starts. Without running on Lasix and the dehydration, knock out, that can come from doing so, horses should recover more quickly and be better suited physically to run more often (bleeders excluded). I know it's not en vogue and far from the current norm but it wasn't that long ago that nearly every major Derby prep was run on the same day, 3 weeks out with the Wood, Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, and Santa Anita Derby all running on the same day!!!

[cherokeescot]

I’m hoping for as many withdrawals as possible so my futures bet on Mandarin Hero is alive. Ozzy, soon be time to start the annual Derby Defectors thread.

[5wide]

Apr 12, 2023 18:50:00 GMT -5 ozzy said:

No Confidence Game and he will certainly be a toss for me in the Derby, trying to come in off something like 11 weeks off, not having raced since February 25th?? Unless the horse had an injury, needed time and is rounding back into form, I don't get it....I still wouldn't bet him off that scenario but this seesm nuts.

I don't get the angst over Disarm running in the Lexington either. He's had 2 lifetime starts and only one this year, 3 weeks ago in the LA Derby. He definitely needs the seasoning and experience, ran 3 weeks ago, and would have 3 weeks until the Derby. What's wrong with that? I feel like I am taking crazy pills listening to everyone spacing preps out and giving so much time in between starts. Without running on Lasix and the dehydration, knock out, that can come from doing so, horses should recover more quickly and be better suited physically to run more often (bleeders excluded). I know it's not en vogue and far from the current norm but it wasn't that long ago that nearly every major Derby prep was run on the same day, 3 weeks out with the Wood, Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, and Santa Anita Derby all running on the same day!!!

Nice to hear, I thought I was alone in this train of thought.

[mysaladdays]

Apr 12, 2023 18:58:10 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

I’m hoping for as many withdrawals as possible so my futures bet on Mandarin Hero is alive. Ozzy, soon be time to start the annual Derby Defectors thread.

 I was just thinking about Transect last week and so I'm curious to see how he will run.


I don't do futures but wish you the very best.  Mandarin Hero is my horse, I have to have one to root for for the KY Derby and he or Confidence Game were going to be "that" for me.   I am gutted about Confidence Game not going, but in a way, maybe it is a blessing.  I will have an opportunity to root for him in another race, ditto Mandarin Hero.  Right now I am also liking Hit Show. 


At any rate, Baffert entering a horse in the Lexington is his final chance to stick it to 'em.   He lost in court and now he's going to muck it up for everyone else, how spiteful.  The amount of points he has kept other horses from getting since the beginning of the TC trail is mounting, way up over 130 points now, maybe more.  

That US racing has condoned and allowed this, and there is really no *ban*.   He has been allowed to legally destroy the points distribution.   

They should have a logo for the Lexington with a middle finger to the fans and hard working barns.  As I read somebody already said:   "When US racing orders a firing squad --- they form a circle!"

I don't even care what anyone thinks about my opinion.  I hold to it, and am not the least bit embarrassed for saying so, that in no way is Baffert  "good for racing".    

I will probably pass the KY Derby like I did last year, even though I follow along and cap it, etc.   I can't give my money into what I am so opposed to.    Plenty of good races I can play in Aus, Japan, Hong Kong, UK, etc.   This was like the final straw for me.  It just feels like a gut punch. 

[tex]

For me if Disarm runs well and gets into the Derby he will be set up nicely. He does need the racing experience and conditioning. Talent (according to Asmussen he is loaded with) is not enough. Leaving him off tickets if runs well and gets in would be the wrong move IMO.

[mysaladdays]

I'm not SOLD on Disarm, despite that he needs points. I think Denington and Prairie Hawk may be good longshots in this race

play w/First Mission, Arabian Lion, Disarm, Transect, Reinvest  under.

Yes, I am inlcuding Transect.  They keep mentioning the gotham, the horse HATED that slop there.  I don't toss horses based on one race. 

[Deleted]

i am OVERTHEMOON that prarie hawk is in this...i can't check my tvg account but i'm pretty sure i have a fb on him at like 80-1 (there're a few "prarie" horselets(TM)). the points system is a modern contraption that has ZERO to do with racing...that's been my opinion for the duration and i'mstickin2it

[UpInClass]

Transect is SCRATCHED.

[UpInClass]

[Badactor]

[mysaladdays]

Apr 12, 2023 18:50:00 GMT -5 ozzy said:

No Confidence Game and he will certainly be a toss for me in the Derby, trying to come in off something like 11 weeks off, not having raced since February 25th?? Unless the horse had an injury, needed time and is rounding back into form, I don't get it....I still wouldn't bet him off that scenario but this seesm nuts.

I don't get the angst over Disarm running in the Lexington either. He's had 2 lifetime starts and only one this year, 3 weeks ago in the LA Derby. He definitely needs the seasoning and experience, ran 3 weeks ago, and would have 3 weeks until the Derby. What's wrong with that? I feel like I am taking crazy pills listening to everyone spacing preps out and giving so much time in between starts. Without running on Lasix and the dehydration, knock out, that can come from doing so, horses should recover more quickly and be better suited physically to run more often (bleeders excluded). I know it's not en vogue and far from the current norm but it wasn't that long ago that nearly every major Derby prep was run on the same day, 3 weeks out with the Wood, Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, and Santa Anita Derby all running on the same day!!!

Well as far a Confidence Game, if you know Desormeaux, he has his own  unique manner of finding bloodstock and training.  He doesn't buy for the page, he buys, in his own words, "athletes".  This is the guy who purchased Texas Red for $17,000 and the horse won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and more than $1.7 million. He paid $110,000 for Exaggerator, who won about $3.5 million and the Preakness Stakes.  Remember Sonneteer? 112-1 odds in the Rebel Stakes......and 4th for the superfecta for the AR Derby that year that paid very well.


We all have our sweet spot, sort of like some of us will wait and find and play longshots. I make no bones that I have always been a Desormeaux fan, sort of like how I'm a Borel fan. Those cajuns..........   Yes, I'm a fangirl of his. 


"we don't buy pedigree.......we make pedigree" (2019)

louisianabred.blog/category/keith-desormeaux/

As for time between races, you may remember when Exaggerator came off the Belmont, Keith said the horse keeps his condition when everyone was wondering why Exaggerator went from 6/11 to 7/31 w/out a race, and little i the way of works............and indeed, he won the Haskell that year. Beating Nyquist and Gun Runner!! (on the other hand, it didn't work so well for the Travers......oh well).   I remember Colonel John, he wojuld lose condition practically *overnight*......trainer had such a hard time with him (another omni-surface runner by the way). 


I think it's good not to get too much into the "box" about what works just because it's traditional.   One thing i have always said, and then I was reading an interview with Keith (see below) and I was like YES YES YES!...... because my "horse racing tutor" 20+ years ago told me not to get too much into distinctions about surface, and I have always followed MANY omni-surface horses like I do? Hetaught me NOT to get overly drawn into surfaces. He taught me that fitness, stamina, and suitable muscling plays a much larger role in successfully changing surfaces than the surface itself (although he did saw a true synth- only horse bred for that has to love every inch of that stuff. ) But otherwise, he told me " Hand an apple to Sandy Coufax and he will strike you out. .. Hand a tree branch to Roberto Clemente and he will still double to right field. The athlete is preeminent, not the vagaries of the surface or the tools he or she uses. "



Honestly, I thought this was one of the wisest things anyone ever said, and I repeat it to myself and others, quite often. 

(IMHO it was Beyer who couldn't make his numbers work who got people into the idea that surfaces matter more than they actually do. Because of his own shortcomings capping certain surfaces.  I was never on that bandwagon though.  He never would have had Animal Kingdom......or many other omni surface horses. But that's another topic.)


And here, in an interview w/LA Times some years ago, Keith was basically saying the same thing......oh joy......I was delighted:   
From the LA Times:

“Over the years, I’ve developed a way to glean out these less expensive horses that have a lot of talent,” Desormeaux said. “It’s not that I buy whatever is cheap. The horses I buy have to fit the same criteria that I would use for a million-dollar horse. They have to have class, they have to look good and have the intangibles.” Desormeaux has discarded the traditional notion of separating dirt and turf horses. Five of My Boy Jack’s eight races have been on the turf. The surface is secondary. "

You cannot use traditonal ways of thinking when trying to figure out someone who doesn't live and die by those methods.  He is OLD SCHOOL.  He buys athletes that may have a conformation probem or 2........he works with the horses, he is a patient trainer, like graham motion and the other ones that get that label. 

$1.3 million purchase prices don't make a racehorse.  They make a horse who is going to earn in the breeding shed.  For the most part, I think desormeaux has his own gift just like other trainers do.   

This doesn't mean that I am using or not using Confidence Game.  Just want to say there is room in the world for people who have "their own way" of doing things and I'm always willing to look-see and learn something.   Many good trainers struggle in obscurity.   Big stakes races w/same 4 super-trainer names gets to me after a while, and I do quesiton whether that consists of serving up a "good product".    Esp. when they run merry go round races sometimes. 

[mysaladdays]

As for Disarm, he isn't fit. That is why I didn't use him 1st or 2nd on my "real" ticket in the Lexington. I figured he'd get 3rd, and he did. Hows he gonna run in the KY Derby against this bunch?    It's not just about how many prep races....they all need more or need less and some are later or slower to develop.  Seeing him run in the Lex, it was just obvious he didn't have the kind of fitness you need for KY Derby against this bunch.   Will he have it after an 8.5F race with 17 days left to go?


He has the right pedigree, he can go Belmont distance, leaving me to wonder why Asmussen doesn't just save him for the Belmont and give him some seasoning. Maybe owners are pushing. Belmont to me is an equally distinguished race......making Disarm run 9F and 8.5F prep races isn't in his best interst........just like it wasn't for a horse like Country HOuse who needed a lot longer to "get going". I see this all the time just don't feel like listing all the horses who never made the KY Derby gate off mostly 9F preps.   Heck, there are tons of true classic distance guys we may never see at all.   They don't get their opportunity.   But conversely, pushing youngsters who are not ready is a good way to ruin a young horse, too. 

[5wide]

Apr 17, 2023 1:32:57 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

As for Disarm, he isn't fit. That is why I didn't use him 1st or 2nd on my "real" ticket in the Lexington. I figured he'd get 3rd, and he did. Hows he gonna run in the KY Derby against this bunch?    It's not just about how many prep races....they all need more or need less and some are later or slower to develop.  Seeing him run in the Lex, it was just obvious he didn't have the kind of fitness you need for KY Derby against this bunch.   Will he have it after an 8.5F race with 17 days left to go?


He has the right pedigree, he can go Belmont distance, leaving me to wonder why Asmussen doesn't just save him for the Belmont and give him some seasoning. Maybe owners are pushing. Belmont to me is an equally distinguished race......making Disarm run 9F and 8.5F prep races isn't in his best interst........just like it wasn't for a horse like Country HOuse who needed a lot longer to "get going". I see this all the time just don't feel like listing all the horses who never made the KY Derby gate off mostly 9F preps.   Heck, there are tons of true classic distance guys we may never see at all.   They don't get their opportunity.   But conversely, pushing youngsters who are not ready is a good way to ruin a young horse, too. 

Speaking to Steve Byk on At the Races radio Monday, he said, “Disarm is going to benefit from the races that he has had. We have not gotten the best from him yet, and he will compete very well at any level. I’m extremely excited about getting him out in the mile and a quarter. I love how he came out of the (Lexington). We will try and keep our wits about us but feel good about him going into the Derby.”

www.horseracingnation.com/news/Kentucky_Derby_2023_Disarm_will_run_after_gaining_needed_points_123

[mysaladdays]

Disarm was off from 8/6/22 until 2/19/23.......was he mildly injured or what? Does anyone know, I don't remember. 6 months off for a horse planning on Derby Trail campaign......I don't even remember if he was TC nominated back then?

Again my personal thought is that getting a much needed conditioning race after not sticking w/a better planned campaign, if I owned I would save for The Belmont Stakes.  Of course if he won the Derby I would be eating my words.  

However, getting a much needed conditioning race is not the same as throwing a somewhat green horse into the chaos and calvary charge of the KY Derby.  Just seen too many youngsters kinda ruined like that.   


This doesn't affect my capping, I have not done my capping yet.  I just am voicing my *concerns*.   


OTOH he has always run ITM, so talent is there in spades for sure.  I also have an angle about horses who started first race in June or July of year before the derby.  Would have to revisit the stats on that, but I don't like that his was in JUNE.   I like maiden race not before Sept 1st.  

[Deleted]

Speaking to Steve Byk on At the Races radio Monday, he said, “Disarm is going to benefit from the races that he has had. We have not gotten the best from him yet, and he will compete very well at any level...."

who is he?

[5wide]

Apr 17, 2023 17:57:55 GMT -5 @merasmag said:

Speaking to Steve Byk on At the Races radio Monday, he said, “Disarm is going to benefit from the races that he has had. We have not gotten the best from him yet, and he will compete very well at any level...."

who is he?

Asmussen

[Deleted]

the bulls'ers bs'er...i think he learnt from dwl
actually my favorite part of derby week---trying to dechiper trainer-speak

[Deleted]

"funny" how stevie b picks and chooses who to get all sanctimonious about
RIP NEHRO

for any "newbies":

tuesdayshorse.wordpress.com/2014/03/22/asmussen-the-torture-of-racehorses-and-agonizing-death-of-nehro/