Arkansas Derby Draw

[mysaladdays]

Looks to be a good race.   But I really thought they'd receive more than 11 horses, since many would be avoiding the FL Derby due to Forte, but he drew post #11 so he better have his running shoes on.   

The complete field for the Arkansas Derby from the rail with riders is:

Bourbon Bash, Mickaelle Michel; Interlock Empire, David Cabrera; Harlocap, Ricardo Santana Jr.; Two Eagles River, Nik Juarez; Airtime, Cristian Torres; Angel of Empire, Flavien Prat; Rocket Can, Junior Alvarado; Reincarnate, John Velazquez; King Russell, Rafael Bejarano; Red Route One, Tyler Gaffalione; and Kolomio, James Graham.


but was looking at the "probables/possibles" for the Bluegrass and that race is coming up with some excellent entrants!


  

[merasmag]

i have the superhighfive!

[Badactor]

ODDS & ENTRIES

[mysaladdays]

I just received the PPs (w/out odds) a few minutes ago. So I haven't actually capped the race. Just some things I noticed off a glance:

I have trouble figuring out shippers who only ran at SA or Delmar and then at Fairgrounds, coming to Oaklawn track. There really isn't much to go on, these tracks are so different. To my mind, Harlocap, for instance, can't close worth a darn, or at least, couldn't in the Risen Star, but I will have to go back and look at his other races. On futures PPs they have him a tad better than Eagles River, which, unless Amsussen has performed some kind of miracle on him since getting him last minute "just in time" for the Risen Star (like shoved into his barn the day before almost!) I don't think I can support.

I don't even think anyone in the barn knew anything about him, there were some interviewers asking and the word from the barn at that time was "we don't know, we just GOT the horse" blah blah blah. it's like just having a stray dog join your pack out of nowhere while you were out walking LOL

Handicapping this kind of scenario, you'd either need to be in the Asmussen barn OR have a crystal ball to know what he was doing with this horse since he got him, who ran pretty okay at SA (as a maiden) .......because what else is there to go on? And why was he transferred so quickly (obviously, the owner's decision I guess when they realized they couldn't make the KY Derby gate if they stuck with Baffert).

Then we have Airtime, who was claimed from John Ortiz, by "move-em-up" claimer trainer, Diodoro, who wins everything there is to win at Oaklawn on a non graded stakes day, and he commands the best rider at Oaklawn for this horse. I've talked many off Diodoro horses in G1 races in the past .........and have been right so far.   Not sure about this one, though, given that rider, and fact that it is a GaryMary West horse.

Kolomio is a Desormeaux who is keeping Graham aboard hoping to have the same racing luck he had with Confidence Game using a mostly Fairgrounds jockey. With a horse who has never set foot on this track, another California horse claimed from a Calif trainer.


There were a number of horses I expected to run in this, and that aren't. I am rather surprised and somewhat disappointed.

Also, did anyone notice, over 1/2 the horses in this race won't even be 3 years old until April? yet have aleady run 6 races? (No wonder there is nothing left of them after running the KY Derby. That's too much racing for my tastes for young developing musculoskeletons. )  2 isn't enough, but 6 going on 7 seems like too much.  Maybe sweet spot is 4-5? What do you guys think on this subject?

[5wide]

Was all set to go with Rocket Can, but then saw the trouble line on Reincarnate and watched the replay of the Rebel. He got caught flat footed in the gate, so was 3rd to last most of the way (normally an e/p),crept closer from 3 furs out turning for home, by this time covered in mud, he started to make a move , weaving through horses, only to get checked and blocked, gathered himself and ran on for 3rd. He runs away with this if he breaks with the field .

#6 in the replay

[merasmag]

i got the sh5 in this race...lol...repeating myself

[mysaladdays]

If pace isn't fast (but I think it will be) Two Eagles River could also get a piece, but if the pace is really fast I think he will run out of the money.


Also of note, Rocket Can isn't running in the AR Derby in order to avoid Forte in Florida.  His owners are Arkansas business owners and wish to have their horse closer to home now that winter training down in FL is over.  

[Badactor]

UIC folks favoring so many different horses...
Should be a humdinger!

[merasmag]

i will prob go with jv's horselet(TM) for reasons stated above

[mysaladdays]

Certain sirelines tend to win this race historically, Mr Prospectors and Fappianos. A couple APIs here and there.

Only horses I really like in this are reincarnate and angel of empire.

Maybe put harlocap, interlock empire and bourbon bash in there for longshot filler. I think the pace will be too fast for Twin Rivers and I refuse to wager a claiming trainer like diordoro for a G1 race.

[UpInClass]