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Post by Badactor on Feb 19, 2023 22:33:06 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on Feb 19, 2023 22:36:00 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on Feb 21, 2023 0:36:40 GMT -5
1 Verifying - Geroux/Cox
2 Powerful - Castillo/Asmussen
3 Red Route One - Torres/Asmussen
4 Gun Pilot - Santana, Jr./Asmussen
5 Giant Mischief - I Ortiz, Jr./Cox
6 Reincarnate - Velazquez/Yakteen
7 Confidence Game - Graham/Desormeaux
8 Talladega - Prat/Brisset
9 Event Detail - Corrales/Lobo
10 Bourbon Bash - Michel/Lukas
11 Frosted Departure - Arrieta/McPeek
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Post by cherokeescot on Feb 22, 2023 14:22:57 GMT -5
Event Detail in a shocker !
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Post by tims70ar on Feb 22, 2023 15:24:23 GMT -5
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Post by tims70ar on Feb 22, 2023 16:05:57 GMT -5
Event Detail in a shocker !
"Main Win Contenders:
Although with just a maiden win to his credit, Event Detail has a lot of factors on his side coming into this year's Rebel Stakes." |
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Post by Badactor on Feb 22, 2023 18:53:52 GMT -5
Well, I'll be a Gun Runner's uncle.
Is that right?
Is Confidence Game uncle to the Gun Runners?
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Post by croicboy21 on Feb 22, 2023 21:43:27 GMT -5
I'm taking Talladega in a shocker. Hi Family. The Prodigal Son, CroixBoy, has returned...
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Post by cherokeescot on Feb 22, 2023 22:35:46 GMT -5
Event Detail in a shocker !
"Main Win Contenders:
Although with just a maiden win to his credit, Event Detail has a lot of factors on his side coming into this year's Rebel Stakes."There goes my 30-1 !!! |
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Post by merasmag on Feb 22, 2023 23:57:07 GMT -5
I'm taking Talladega in a shocker. Hi Family. The Prodigal Son, CroixBoy, has returned... i like also |
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 23, 2023 4:48:00 GMT -5
I like Gun Pilot, Confidence Game, Talaadega ---- and then usual suspects verifying and reincarnate.
Before I started looking at the race, one of the horses I WANTED to win was Red Route One. Using my *practical* capping skills, Asmussen has trained this one from the beginning as a *router*. Gets the services of Oaklawn's top rider, Christian Torres. Horse has a nice sustained rallying style, he did well against Arabian Knight on a sloppy (sealed) track at OP and ran 2nd. His race in the Street Sense was also on a sloppy(sealed) track, he got jostled around and came in 5th. In the BC Futurity he ran 3rd to Forte and Loggins, despite his 60-1-ish odds. Its supposed to rain on Saturday. (It seems to rain here daily almost in some form or another, I have a big rain coat investment because I like to stand around outside at the races!)
So, at 12-1, what's not to like? Hold the phone! I'll be breaking my own rules and getting off him!
I woke up this morning with a hunch on my brain and it probably makes no sense at all. But I decided to like Gun Pilot. He seems like the "fresh and improving horse" despite that he has very little under his belt to recommend him. He is a decent gate horse, and will keep better contact with the field given his running style. He is moving up in class and hasn't raced on a wet track though. But he seems very push-button and i have a feeling Asmussen has been training him to have a certain running style.
Confidence Game is a horse I've already expressed my love for his pedigree. I have followed him since his very first race. He's 83% ITM after 6 races. I have to include..it's now or never and I truly hope he makes it into the derby gate. He will probably go off at very high odds. Maybe Desormeaux can pull a Sonneteer here.
I remember when mcPeek's the Truth or Else ran 4th to Amercian Pharoah in the Rebel in 2015. I also remember giving out Un Ojo last year. Both of these remind me a lot of Telladega (I keep track of their quirins which change from race to race, so I actually had this one as an S type, not the E4 that Brisnet has assigned on basis of his last race.....I saw both his races at OP (14 days apart) and he was 4th betting choice, then favorite 14 days later. I write down running styles on my program and keep good records) He just reminds me of those other horses. They didn't pay $850K for no reason. Those Yes It's True horses have a lot of speed----this one gets it on the damside on their dam side. So I agree CroixBoy on Talladega as a bomb but you all know I always give my *reasoning* for picking horses so I don't look like I'm throwing darts.
Also worth a mention, I use pedigree in some races and if track is going to come up wet, In Reality...... Fabulous mud sire IMHO. And sire is Into Mischief. So that helped.
If you remember In Realty won 1st Florida Derby(G1), the Fountain of Youth and was 2nd Preakness S.(G1). (if you can't find an In Realtiy then a Rahy will do as well). Going even further back is Tim Tam and Known Fact, if you want to dive deep.
There were some other big longshots like Bourbon Dash and McPeeks Frosted Departure. The problem is they are already over-raced IHMO and won't be able to "take time off" this late before the derby season and they lose ground in the stretch. I have NO IDEA what Lobo's horse is all about. I wish I did. Brisnet has Giant Mischief as Class of the field, which makes no sense. He ran an ungraded stakes at RP and is a Cox is why, but he's been off 70 days. I can't back that.
So I will juggle some exotics tickets, stacked, and play these 3 with Verifying and Reincarnate. Sure was a great race back in 2017 when I left the Baffert horse, who I think was 4/5, off my ticket entirely. That was the year Malagacy won. Everyone I was at the track with thought I was nuts. . Of course they thought I was nuts with Un Ojo too. I play some pretty wild tickets at OP and do pretty okay.
So, I will read the writeup on Event Detail, I know nothing about this horse. Once in a while Lobo comes to OP but not very often.
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 23, 2023 16:33:47 GMT -5
ARK Derby falling at exactly the right place this year ... 3 weeks out........not too short, not too long, that is good scheduling on their part for those looking for a Derby horse to get last minute points, yes? Rebel Stakes rarely produces a derby winner but there are some who run ITM out of this race.
Went back to watch Smarty Jones today....winning the AR Derby on a wet track after winning the Rebel and the Southwest on dry/fast).
Then winning the KY Derby on slop.......that In Reality pedigree influence, up close.....Smarty Jones' BMS line, pedigree positive for slop, not perfect but also not a trailing indicator. Took me 2.5 decades to develop my wet track pedigree lists for OP.....not just for the stakes races though, since that is pretty much the only track I play. So I had to use Talladega for my longshot.
I remember Lobo now. He had Gayego, I was at Oaklawn the year he won the AR Derby! Good luck with Event Detail.
Will be intersting to see how Rosario rides on the undercard. Thankfully he's not on any of my Rebel horses. I made $$ last weekend by betting against him in every race.
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 24, 2023 8:13:01 GMT -5
Woke up today and thinking how I'm not impresssed with Verifying. Gets the #1 post, last figure was posted while on Lasix, I don't see him winning this race and I may delete him from my tri ticket or only use in3rd.
Can't back Giant Mischief because he's not a good gate horse, 70 days off, and I think he's running in this because he had to avoid the Risen Star distance, and Cox wasn't sure he oculd get 2 turns at 1-1/8.
Also noticed that Frosted Departure has only had 13 days off since July of 2022. He has either been racing, or posting works during this entire time, and this will be his 4th graded stakes.
(snark: heck, its taken Arabian Knight 16 days to recuperate from running in the Southwest stakes in order to just post a 3F work).
I think they are pushing for a win in a graded stakes and he doesn't have one yet, even after so much racing. This isn't a Derby Trail campaign. Even Lukas doesn't run this hard. Isn't the trainer also part owner of Frosted Departure? (Sherri McPeek) I find this to be a bit much for such a young horse ---- foaled in May 16, 2020.
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Post by maumeeriverangler on Feb 24, 2023 15:39:51 GMT -5
If I had to pick one it would be-- Reincarnate.
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,699
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Post by docd on Feb 24, 2023 18:17:58 GMT -5
Nice read MSD.I like the looks of Gun Pilot as well.Asmussen third off is a good angle.After what I saw today I think it's safe to say the surface will have some moisture in it.No worries with this one he's top and bottom bred for it.
GL
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 24, 2023 20:30:18 GMT -5
Nice read MSD.I like the looks of Gun Pilot as well.Asmussen third off is a good angle.After what I saw today I think it's safe to say the surface will have some moisture in it.No worries with this one he's top and bottom bred for it.
GL Hope so. At least run ITM. I don't really look at these 1-1/16th races as looking for a KY Derby winner though. I've watched Asmussen do this for years, and I'm sure other trainers, too......are not necessarily in it to win it, they will wait for the bigger point races. A race like The Rebel is early enough to just help them ferret out what needs to be done with the horses in their charge. What needs to be fixed, a snapshot of where they're at in late February of the TC year......and it's early enough to fix what they see needs fixing, before they move on to the longer races with bigger points. I think this race is just perfect for that, and I always called it a "snapshot in time" race. It fall in the perfect place. No shade on anyone elses picks, but I thought some of these things I was looking at may or may not help anybody but mainly I am always looking for ways to improve my game, get out of my own point of view, and learn something from others. So when I am perplexed, I asked for guidance. Otherwise, I don't learn. 1) I STILL can't figure out why Event Detail is being considered for a longshot winner by many of the talking heads. (I solidify my picks first, then on a relaxing day I have fun seeing what they have to say, for kicks.) So, Lobo is something like 0 for 27 in graded stakes on dirt. Maybe I missed one in there somewhere, and maybe he'll get lucky this year and win a graded stakes on (wet) dirt. All his are on turf and AW. Why I always tell newbies: You cannot just look at PPs.....if they say trainer has 11% , you have to dig for what they got that in, on what surfaces, in what kind of races, etc. I wish I could design a PP that tells you these things. Also who ran on slop. Without going behind the scenes you can't know these things, right? And this may be a reason newbies aren't attracted to our sport......it's actually a lot of work LOL and easier to just find a few Talking Heads you like and let them do the work for you. (I used to do that, then I got poor quick and learned fast). 2) Also looking at horses Giant Mischief beat, they are like 1 for 27 or something like that? I still think he was just avoiding the Risen Star distance and trying to pick up some points here, which is actually a genius placement on Cox's part, he is good at placement. However, did anyone notice Irad's record for graded stakes on dirt, in 2023? 1st in a G3 at Gulfstream, then 2nd in a G1, and 5th, 5th and 6th in three G3 races. The Pegasus was on Turf. The William L McNight Stakes was on Turf. The Sweetest Chant was on Turf. The Kitten's Joy was on Turf. The La Prevoyante was on Turf. Hope he can ride on the Oaklawn dirt surface. (I love watching sneaky trainers moves, taking the horse to the hinterlands of Indiana and Reminton to run on Lasix.....then off it in the bigger arenas. Its so darn intersting to keep track of these things and how some trainers are just very good at placing horses in certain spots, yes?) Interesting that Rosario is on the premises and no ride in this. Meanwhie: Bejarano ran ITM 5 races of 9 today. But he's been riding like that for the entire meet! Had historical wins in the Southwest and not one trainer used him for that race, either. Strange. Anyway, just providing this tidbit in case you like a horse on the undercard that Bejarnao is riding. |
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Post by Badactor on Feb 25, 2023 12:07:11 GMT -5
This is great reading... oh my goodness, thank you!
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Post by oriolegirl on Feb 25, 2023 15:36:11 GMT -5
I’m going with Red Route One in a mild upset. No shot against the wire to wire winner Arabian Knight. Should get some pace to close into.
Steve
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,382
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Post by 5wide on Feb 25, 2023 17:43:42 GMT -5
I’m going with Red Route One in a mild upset. No shot against the wire to wire winner Arabian Knight. Should get some pace to close into. Steve with you on Red Route One. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 25, 2023 18:37:56 GMT -5
I could not be HAPPIER about Confidence Game, every stakes race I've loved him, he finally pays me. 83% ITM career .......and goes off at 18-1?
Only had W/P wagers on him and gun pilot ....chickened out on an exotic for a race like this.
Pedigree wise, he is one of the few in this race who BELONGS in the KY Derby gate, IMHO.
Oh, and I almost did a "lasix free" tri box for entire career........that was the 7, 3, 6 and 2 but friend got it. Those were the only Lasix Free horses in the race (horses who have never been "shot up" with lasix since they set foot on the track) . Verifying was only one who didn't belong in that category.
So tell me why we need lasix........last years KY Derby Superfecta? All 4 were Lasix Free
Last year's Belmont Stakes winner? Lasix free.
We need to stop it with the needles.
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 25, 2023 19:12:51 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Desormeaux wins with a $25,000 purchase, for THAT pedigree. Quit giving those Candy Ride Gun Runners Lasix !! I remember when irwin and others were suggesting all that untouched (undrugged) South American blood (Lobo trains these types, too)....that South American Flow of Ecxellence ruled the early 1900's for foundation in North America. We need to get back to putting some stamina blood in the pedigrees.......remember that Reach The World had (remember him? He was magnificent and was just getting started the year he broke his seismoid and had to be euthanized). I loved that horse, Galileo on bottom, etc. I was going to bet the house on him if he ran www.pedigreequery.com/reach+the+world |
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Post by Badactor on Feb 25, 2023 19:57:35 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on Feb 25, 2023 20:04:03 GMT -5
Confidence Game $39.00 $13.20 $7.80
...that's a birdie -1 
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 25, 2023 22:51:44 GMT -5
Keith was so happy! Its so great to see people overcome with JOY. Can we hope that Confidence Game, who's dam is 1/2 to Zenyatta, runs anything like Queen Z did? Fingers crossed! He already beat Mott's Rocket Can, who many of us picked to win the Holy Bull (including me) so things are looking good because he certainly has enough tactical speed........seems less pace-dependent than Red Route, too. He was a cute little guy, with mom Eblouissante  just mad at myself that I got off RRO.......as in my orignal post, you can see I threw him over for Gun Pilot. I would have had the superfecta --- |
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