Southwest Stakes @ Oaklawn Park

[Badactor]

Is the next Kentucky Derby winner in this race?

These are the PROBABLES for the Southwest Stakes:

[Deleted]

no

[Badactor]

Jan 21, 2023 21:57:17 GMT -5 @merasmag said:

no

PS. Dear merasmag, you are soooooo WRONG! You'll see.

[Deleted]

lol...okiedokie
if i were betting it wood b protege-just bcuz

[eye123]

Corona Bolt looks interesting

[Badactor]

ODDS & ENTRIES

Interesting... Talamo opts for Jace's Road,

after winning last time out aboard Hit Show.

[1hooper]

Why would Lukas run Western Ghent in this spot?

[tims70ar]

1 - Sun Thunder
2 - Corona Bolt
3 - Jace's Road
4 - Western Ghent
5 - Frosted Departure
6 - Arabian Knight
7 - Red Route One
8 - Hit Show
9 - El Tomate

More info at Oaklawn

[tims70ar]

Red Route One

[Badactor]

I'm really looking forward to Saturday's Southwest...

this is the race where I reestablish my reputation

as one of the greatest handicappers of all time! (true story)

[Deleted]

waiting to bet who u pick...

[cherokeescot]

Waiting to hear who Steve Byk likes.

[bobtailnag]

Waiting for my wife to get off the throne.

[Deleted]

Jan 25, 2023 19:26:52 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

Waiting to hear who Steve Byk likes.

all

[mysaladdays]

I don't listen to ANY Talking Heads. Ever. I watch none of those shows nor listen to podcasts. I find I don't like to have my opinion influenced. I also never look at odds until I am DONE handicapping.......I either get PPs w/out them (early) or I cover them up while looking over a race.



The talking heads don't ever give great longshots......I've had some killer good 65-1+ horses in the past and I find I can't get horses like Country House, Super Steed in the Southwest, or Un Ojo in the Rebel (can't find my post where I picked him here) ......I think if you look at odds you might "get off" a horse you really like, and if you listen to other opinions because all of us are just as good as anyone else.





THat said, the Southwest has traditionally little bearing on the TC races most of the time, and the ones in the race this year have mostly run sprints so there is no telling how they will do stretching out a bit. 


What I do find interesting is that if you look at history of this race, Bejarano has won it more times than anyone except one other (a long time ago) and THIS SEASON he is riding like a banshee at Oaklawn (on 1/14 last time I looked he held the 2nd winningest rider at Oaklawn this season.............yet not one trainer is using him. I do find that strange!! He rides this track almost daily.



I paper-handicap oaklawn almost every day just for fun. it's only 7 miles from me. It is very hard track because the remix changes every year and I've kept track of running styles for at least 8 years now for different distances. And you have a TON of shippers, and the jockey colony changes a whole lot, too. (this year we have 4-5 female jockeys!) I also dislike the big graded stakes races as no matter what the weather, they will do as all tracks do.....roll it, seal it, and make it FAST. (faster than normal).



In the daily races, I am a longshot player. I play patterns. Like last week, Keannally shows up with a horse. He hardly EVER comes to Oaklawn. So, that jumped out at me, (trainer intent, why was this horse in this race?) and the horse won and paid big.





Anyway I looked over the Southwest card and 2 horses I like:

Red Route One 
I have never seen at OP, but Asmussen started him as a maiden at 1-1/16th. I like seeing that, when a trainer knows he has a router, and doesn't start 'em at 6.5 or 5.5.  This is the *real router* in this race.   He ran 3rd to Forte in BCFuturity and beat Instant Coffee as well as Two Phils and Frosted Departure.....these horses have come back to compliment him.   IF Asmussen has him right for this race, AND he doesn't have the kind of bad start he had in his last........ unless he's gone backwards I expect him to have even improved!

Hit Show - his race at OP he was a shoe-in, with a trainer who is 39% with beaten favorites, and he was getting first-time Lasix. There weren't any other trainers in that race who had a better record and he had the best last out speed, and indeed, he won. But I think Red Route One might have a better rally than him ......but Hit Show looks like a good horse to include on a ticket to my eye. 


Horses I can't get a bead -----like this one, related to Class.....Sun Thunder, who some like.  Sun Thunder beat a bunch of maidens at OP on 1st time lasix, but his late pace seems better than what the PPs have down for him.  However, I have the PPs for that race.  He was a $400K purchase and towered over the field, on breeding alone.  And went off as utter chalk as expected.    BRIS PPs had King Russell who ran 2nd at speed of 66 Last Out and a Late Pace of 73; They had Seas of Normandy who ran 3rd (who I used in a show wager) at speed fig 74 Last Out and a Late Pace of 70 on the PPs.  Sun Thunder towered over that field, went off as uber-chalk, so it was no surprise he won that race. I had averaged the Speed Last Race from Bris PPs for the field and it was only 69.9.     So.......... I still cannot properly access his class for the Southwest because of who he ran against.


-----Western Ghent was M/L 30-1 last out and went up over 50-1 at post in the Smarty Jones at OP, I threw him into my  superfecta because Torres is a killer good rider at OP. Horse starts off well but can never close the deal. Had he not gotten Torres that day I would not have used him at all.  On the other hand, be on the lookout for some of Lukas's young horses, he's been bringing in some rather startling results, esp. with new female rider French-born jockey Mickaëlle Michel.  I love that Lukas will always give fledling and new riders mounts.....he has always seemed very generous in that regard.   he also has a good eye for horse flesh.   But this one has no chance.  I don't begrudge Lukas running horses in stakes because he has always over-raced his horses and dances all the dances.   He loves the lifestyle, and he's not getitng any younger, so he should go ahead and participate AFAIC.   Unlike Jack van Berg (RIP, loved that guy!) who had a change in consciousness about how to train horses and put the horse first as he matured, that isn't going to happen wtih Lukas.  He is always going to race what is in his barn. 

-----Frosted Departure - ran a sprint in last against 4 other speedy horses. I had him 4th, he ran 1st. He was more of an EP/1 running style but I guess since he won equibase has him as an E/P6 now. The sprint before that, I had him 3rd as an E/P3, cuz he seemed to have a closing kick. He ran 4th and there was no kick. The routes he ran before these at CD and Keen he did not run ITM. I don't think McPeek had him figured out yet but he looks like a sprinter and I would use him 1st or 2nd in a 7F race since he's run 9 times now.  I can't support here. 

Any of the others I have no idea about, I am not familiar with them.  I have no idea what Bolt will do.  I am not sold on him or the Baffert horse. 

[mysaladdays]

P.S. Bad thing about Oaklawn in daily races, I just skip races Diordoro is in. He wins everything, move em up guy.

Best "Oaklawn riders" are Bejarano (23% w  55% ITM) then Torres, Arrieta,  Santana (23%/48%), and Nic Juarez.

Bad thing about Red Route One - Asmussen isn't winning lately. I mean 5%-7%. He's about 8th on the trainer list right now.   Cox is about 4th. Diordoro is 1st then Hartman (42%) and Moquett (28%). So it's been weird so far this year.  Maybe some of them got new feed guys or something. 

[Deleted]

the fact that jv is skipping pegasus day to ride in the sw is good enuf for me. he also has another good mount the next day for baffert-so...whatevah

[Badactor]

Jan 27, 2023 1:35:31 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

I don't listen to ANY Talking Heads. Ever. I watch none of those shows nor listen to podcasts. I find I don't like to have my opinion influenced. I also never look at odds until I am DONE handicapping.......I either get PPs w/out them (early) or I cover them up while looking over a race.



The talking heads don't ever give great longshots......I've had some killer good 65-1+ horses in the past and I find I can't get horses like Country House, Super Steed in the Southwest, or Un Ojo in the Rebel (can't find my post where I picked him here) ......I think if you look at odds you might "get off" a horse you really like, and if you listen to other opinions because all of us are just as good as anyone else.





THat said, the Southwest has traditionally little bearing on the TC races most of the time, and the ones in the race this year have mostly run sprints so there is no telling how they will do stretching out a bit. 


What I do find interesting is that if you look at history of this race, Bejarano has won it more times than anyone except one other (a long time ago) and THIS SEASON he is riding like a banshee at Oaklawn (on 1/14 last time I looked he held the 2nd winningest rider at Oaklawn this season.............yet not one trainer is using him. I do find that strange!! He rides this track almost daily.



I paper-handicap oaklawn almost every day just for fun. it's only 7 miles from me. It is very hard track because the remix changes every year and I've kept track of running styles for at least 8 years now for different distances. And you have a TON of shippers, and the jockey colony changes a whole lot, too. (this year we have 4-5 female jockeys!) I also dislike the big graded stakes races as no matter what the weather, they will do as all tracks do.....roll it, seal it, and make it FAST. (faster than normal).



In the daily races, I am a longshot player. I play patterns. Like last week, Keannally shows up with a horse. He hardly EVER comes to Oaklawn. So, that jumped out at me, (trainer intent, why was this horse in this race?) and the horse won and paid big.





Anyway I looked over the Southwest card and 2 horses I like:

Red Route One 
I have never seen at OP, but Asmussen started him as a maiden at 1-1/16th. I like seeing that, when a trainer knows he has a router, and doesn't start 'em at 6.5 or 5.5.  This is the *real router* in this race.   He ran 3rd to Forte in BCFuturity and beat Instant Coffee as well as Two Phils and Frosted Departure.....these horses have come back to compliment him.   IF Asmussen has him right for this race, AND he doesn't have the kind of bad start he had in his last........ unless he's gone backwards I expect him to have even improved!

Hit Show - his race at OP he was a shoe-in, with a trainer who is 39% with beaten favorites, and he was getting first-time Lasix. There weren't any other trainers in that race who had a better record and he had the best last out speed, and indeed, he won. But I think Red Route One might have a better rally than him ......but Hit Show looks like a good horse to include on a ticket to my eye. 


Horses I can't get a bead -----like this one, related to Class.....Sun Thunder, who some like.  Sun Thunder beat a bunch of maidens at OP on 1st time lasix, but his late pace seems better than what the PPs have down for him.  However, I have the PPs for that race.  He was a $400K purchase and towered over the field, on breeding alone.  And went off as utter chalk as expected.    BRIS PPs had King Russell who ran 2nd at speed of 66 Last Out and a Late Pace of 73; They had Seas of Normandy who ran 3rd (who I used in a show wager) at speed fig 74 Last Out and a Late Pace of 70 on the PPs.  Sun Thunder towered over that field, went off as uber-chalk, so it was no surprise he won that race. I had averaged the Speed Last Race from Bris PPs for the field and it was only 69.9.     So.......... I still cannot properly access his class for the Southwest because of who he ran against.


-----Western Ghent was M/L 30-1 last out and went up over 50-1 at post in the Smarty Jones at OP, I threw him into my  superfecta because Torres is a killer good rider at OP. Horse starts off well but can never close the deal. Had he not gotten Torres that day I would not have used him at all.  On the other hand, be on the lookout for some of Lukas's young horses, he's been bringing in some rather startling results, esp. with new female rider French-born jockey Mickaëlle Michel.  I love that Lukas will always give fledling and new riders mounts.....he has always seemed very generous in that regard.   he also has a good eye for horse flesh.   But this one has no chance.  I don't begrudge Lukas running horses in stakes because he has always over-raced his horses and dances all the dances.   He loves the lifestyle, and he's not getitng any younger, so he should go ahead and participate AFAIC.   Unlike Jack van Berg (RIP, loved that guy!) who had a change in consciousness about how to train horses and put the horse first as he matured, that isn't going to happen wtih Lukas.  He is always going to race what is in his barn. 

-----Frosted Departure - ran a sprint in last against 4 other speedy horses. I had him 4th, he ran 1st. He was more of an EP/1 running style but I guess since he won equibase has him as an E/P6 now. The sprint before that, I had him 3rd as an E/P3, cuz he seemed to have a closing kick. He ran 4th and there was no kick. The routes he ran before these at CD and Keen he did not run ITM. I don't think McPeek had him figured out yet but he looks like a sprinter and I would use him 1st or 2nd in a 7F race since he's run 9 times now.  I can't support here. 

Any of the others I have no idea about, I am not familiar with them.  I have no idea what Bolt will do.  I am not sold on him or the Baffert horse. 

GREAT POST, 🐴🙂 mysaladdays!

[mysaladdays]

Jan 27, 2023 10:24:04 GMT -5 Badactor said:

Jan 27, 2023 1:35:31 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

GREAT POST, merasmag!🐴🙂

 Author of post you quoted mysaladdays.  (merasmag writes good posts, too! but not the one you quoted)

Weather here today was 57 degrees, sunny and dry.  NOAA for Sat for Hot Springs:  A 50 percent chance of showers. Increasing clouds, with a high near 53. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.


In AR, this could be afternoon showers, OR afternoon brief downpour as race is going off   LOL    Who will drop anchor if the track does get real wet, that's the question.  

 

[Badactor]

Bad's bad, mysaladdays... I fixed it.

[Deleted]

stop confusing me! c u lata gatas!

[Badactor]

"It's Saturday right now."

[mysaladdays]

I got a little teary eyed remembering so many of these Southwest Stakes races. Oaklawn is my jam so I like to share stuff from there.

I remember when Pletcher swooped in with One Liner. He had run 2 races in his entire life, both sprints. Lookin at Lee ran 3rd, who Asmussen trained similarly to Red Route One. Neither horse had ever run at Oaklawn at all. Petrov ran 2nd in that one after running 2nd in the Smarty Jones. One Liner could be Corona Bolt. or.....?

I don't think the Bris PPs get things right because there isn't enough *perspective*. For instance, I am starting to be a little suspicious about Red Route One's late pace figs. That 104 is a lot faster then any race other race he ever closed in.

Then we have the year Far Right won, w/Moquet with Mike Smith riding. He had just won the Smarty Jones Stakes previously. None of the horses he beat in that one run ITM in the Southwest, as predicted. A big longshot, Truth or Else, w/McPeek, came in 2nd at like 23-1 odds who had only run at New York tracks. And then 3rd, Lukas horse Mr. Z, the horse who was "supposed to win" and had top billing in Class, Backspeed, Prime Power.....highest across the board in everything in addition to killer high E1 and E2 ratings. his year that could be Arabian Knight but could also be Frosted Departure if you want to look at E1 and E2 ratings.

Then we had the year Suddenbreakingnews won. Worst race he ever ran, climbed out of the gate, looked like he was going to run last, and then came closing like a banshee. Whitmore, who we now know was a champion "sprinter extraordinaire", came in 2nd (a truly amazing horse in retrospect). Then for 3rd another 22-1 super longshot, American Dubai. Baffert had a horse in this one.......he ran 4th (Collected).

Should we expect at least ONE 20-1 or something LS here? It's happened enough times.

This is typical Oaklawn. A difficult assigment and a crapshoot. Most horses who mean anything in the TC races usually come out of the Rebel Stakes or Arkansas Derby. I just like to look back at races and how they turned out.

[Badactor]

Hit Show is scratched... gaaaaaaaaaawdammit!!!

[Badactor]

Why?

[tc]

Cancelled?

[Badactor]

OK... it's OK... everything's fine, no need to panic FFS!

Withers he goest I will go... @ Aqueduct next weekend.

[mysaladdays]

Baffert horse winning killed the value for me but I got the trifecta and made a profit so I guess that's okay. Will replace the losing wagers I made on the Pegasus.

COMPLETED:cb5b5-be42a OP #10 $0.50 Trifecta 6, 7, WT, 6, 7, WT, 2, 3, 5 none $3.00
$46.85
+ $43.85


I figured that LS would come in (Frosted Departure #5) One always does.

[Badactor]

[unusualpete]

Winner is fast but with v ugly movement.  96 bsf 1st time goin' a route.  justified was the same, but traveled better over the track.  w his weird action you fig he'll get just one more prep before kyd.