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Post by oriolegirl on Nov 3, 2022 11:53:25 GMT -5
Here are the horses that look to be live longshots who can outrun their odds. They might not win, but for those of you who play tri’s and supers, they can spice up the payouts!!
Juvenile Turf Sprint - TYLER’S TRIBE - has an Iowa bred ever even hit the board in a BC race? This guy has speed and if he gets out quick he might not look back. Never been on turf but being by top new sire Sharp Azteca, I don’t see a problem.
Juvenile Fillies- GRAND LOVE - disappointed in the Pocahontas after a promising debut. Asmussen is high on her and she’s worth a shot at double digits.
Juvenile Fillies Turf - CAIRO CONSORT - is in top form but will be ignored at the windows.
PACKS A WAHLOP - going to be tough to beat Silver Knott. Might not be that big of a price but is worth using.
Good Luck
Steve
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Post by dblakers on Nov 3, 2022 12:41:48 GMT -5
If you like CAIRO CONSORT, Last Call who came 2nd to her and beat her may be with a look at 20-1 with Dettori up. Be a nice exacta
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Post by Badactor on Nov 3, 2022 12:43:48 GMT -5
This is perfect... folks can discuss their longshots here
then go to Tournament Talk and put in a contest play.
In order to win the (3) Over 10-1 prize,
players may post a little something here.
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Post by UpInClass on Nov 3, 2022 12:57:51 GMT -5
I can give a reason why I like one of my longshots..
RACE 1 #1 Double Thunder
One of two Runners I played
in the Kentucky Derby future book ..
he didn't make it to the derby but at
30-1 in Friday's opener, he has my interest.
Love your PACKS A WAHLOP, Steve!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 3, 2022 13:20:15 GMT -5
Juv Turf Sprint- I didn't know what to do with Tyler's Tribe, although I expect he could take to the turf on pedigree. I'm just not sure he's had enough experience on it to adapt yet. The four horses drawn PP 9-12 all want to blast away from there running, along with the two inside horses in PP 1-2. Meanwhile, #4- Dramatised (15-1) has Ryan Moore aboard, from Karl Burke, arguably the best 2yo trainer in GB, and #6- Persian Force (15-1) is ridden by Frankie Dettori for Richard Hannon, another top developer of young horses. They are both GII winners, and are ridden by jockeys which have ridden a lot in the States, and know the drill. If they go off at anything near the m/l odds, they are a big overlay IMO.
Juv Fillies- #2- You're My Girl (10-1) is interesting as inside speed with Johnny V. She's a NYB, but she handled the step up to GI in her second start, with a little more improvement she can be right there.
Juv Fillies Turf- Not a lot of early speed in this, with Meditate and Xigera drawn wide. #7- Spirit Gal (20-1) should be sent to clear his inside rivals, and although I don't fancy Ricky Santana on my turf runners, he is a good gate rider, and would just have to rate and steer, depending on what the other speed does. I'll have a small bunch of tickets, including win, ex, and tri with her on top. "Forget about the curveball, Ricky. Give him the heater."
Juv- I could see #8- Lost Ark (20-1) crashing the board from off the pace. He had a nightmare trip under Prat in the Futurity, got pinched back badly early, then had to steady as he began his run on the far turn. Gets Luis Saez for this, and his older half-sister Nest will be watching.
Juv Turf- #10- Webslinger (20-1) will be closing from off the pace, perhaps he can find some space and get a piece under Dylan Davis.
TW
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sbwest
UpInClass Member
Posts: 256
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Post by sbwest on Nov 3, 2022 14:16:13 GMT -5
Juvenile Turf Sprint - #8 American Apple - Rinse and repeat, shocked the world @ 47-1 in last race. Will be forwardly placed.
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Post by soundsofsaratoga on Nov 3, 2022 14:27:42 GMT -5
Race 7 atomically
Race 8 spirit gal
Race 10 major dude
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Post by spiderjohn on Nov 3, 2022 16:01:15 GMT -5
1–Double Thunder
2–No Guilt
3–Let My People Go
4–Welaka
5–claytonthelionheart
6–Persian Force
7–Sabra Tuff Grand Love
8–G Laurie
9–Hurricane J
10–Mo Stash
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Post by spiderjohn on Nov 3, 2022 16:01:39 GMT -5
1–Double Thunder
2–No Guilt
3–Let My People Go
4–Welaka
5–claytonthelionheart
6–Persian Force
7–Sabra Tuff Grand Love
8–G Laurie
9–Hurricane J
10–Mo Stash
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Post by damascus on Nov 3, 2022 20:37:18 GMT -5
Hey Spider is this subliminal capping……posting the picks twice! 😉
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2022 20:40:45 GMT -5
i agree on lost ark and hurricane j
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2022 20:41:50 GMT -5
This is perfect... folks can discuss their longshots here then go to Tournament Talk and put in a contest play. In order to win the (3) Over 10-1 prize, players may post a little something here. huh? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2022 20:56:26 GMT -5
r2-strikingly spun
r3-papa rocket
r4-#7
that's as far as i got
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Post by cindyloujazz on Nov 3, 2022 20:58:17 GMT -5
Okay, I'll join the party.
Juv turf Sprint: Oxymore
Juv Fillies: Alma Rosa, using under
Juv Filly turf: Spirit Gal
Juv: no picks
Juv turf: Nagirroc
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tc
UpInClass Member
Posts: 2,212
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Post by tc on Nov 3, 2022 21:01:16 GMT -5
Is it just me or does Stewart have a bit of a habit of bringing fillies/mares to the BC who go off at gigantic prices and always seem to outrun their odds?
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Post by spiderjohn on Nov 4, 2022 7:24:08 GMT -5
lol sorry Damascus—-human error
Spent the evening at dinner and after with euros connected to many of these
Will probably revise todays action soon
Interesting info
Great handicapping reads from many here
Lexington is well prepared and rocking!
Beautiful morning!
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Post by bitowisdom on Nov 4, 2022 8:02:08 GMT -5
Domestic Spending and Shirl's Spite should not be left out of the mix. Mishriff faced nothing but the best across the pond. ML of 6-1 on Echo Zulu is an early Christmas Gift. I would never use Nest as a single. Last, but far from being least. Can Flightline lose. Yes he can, because it is a horse-race. That is why we are fans. If he falters, for whatever reason I can't make a case, I believe his only threat is OLYMPIAD.
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,960
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Post by docd on Nov 4, 2022 8:33:07 GMT -5
my BC strategy....use all trained by
 KISS
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grommet
UpInClass Member
Posts: 319
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Post by grommet on Nov 4, 2022 8:42:33 GMT -5
No Webslinger for Spider?
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 4, 2022 8:43:30 GMT -5
lol sorry Damascus—-human error Spent the evening at dinner and after with euros connected to many of these Will probably revise todays action soon Interesting info Great handicapping reads from many here Lexington is well prepared and rocking! Beautiful morning! Enjoy the Cup experience spider! Keep us posted on the goings-on, you are our eyes and ears! Have good fortune the next two days. TW |
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tex
UpInClass Member
Posts: 297
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Post by tex on Nov 4, 2022 8:55:12 GMT -5
#14 Gaslight Dancer may take them wire to wire in the nightcap or set the table for the other Maker #7 Really Good.
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Post by spiderjohn on Nov 4, 2022 9:15:47 GMT -5
Serious positive buzz on speedboat beach today
Same for spirit gal in the 2yof turf—old trainer who can make it happen given a really nice expensive filly who Has responded
Many like Delight
A lot of confidence in Victoria road
STurday
Baffert maiden is rumored to be the second coming and may be 2/5
Echo Zulu is doing extremely well
High field princess is considered to be as goOd or better than any here—best of the euros
Tuesday will run very well
Hopefully good info and more to follow
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Post by spiderjohn on Nov 4, 2022 9:20:46 GMT -5
Updated hopefully live shots today
3– Call me Fast
8–Spirit Gal
P10–Victoria Road Mo Stash
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Post by mysaladdays on Nov 4, 2022 11:59:38 GMT -5
Friday Longshots: (more like BOMBS actually)
R4: Welaka
R6: Private Creed (consider throwing SharpAzaTack and Lady Hollyood into a deeper exotic)
R7: Vegas Magic
R8: Xigera or Pleasant Passage
R10: Victoria Park and Reckoning Force
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 12:13:54 GMT -5
Hopefully good info and more to follow  |
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Post by mysaladdays on Nov 4, 2022 12:51:50 GMT -5
Friday Longshots: (more like BOMBS actually) R4: Welaka Why?  Came in 2-9-10-6 I played: 2, 9, WT, 9, 10, WT, 6 (Welaka ran 4th) |
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Post by damascus on Nov 4, 2022 13:33:47 GMT -5
food for thought for those who like stats William Buick has 8 starts riding for Charlie Appleby presumably in the USA. Of those 8 he has 7 winners and 1 third place finish. I like those odds....... Buick is riding mischief magic in Keeneland 6th |
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 13:51:59 GMT -5
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Post by oriolegirl on Nov 4, 2022 13:52:30 GMT -5
I saw that!! One of the reasons I love him!😉
Steve
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 14:06:32 GMT -5
food for thought for those who like stats William Buick has 8 starts riding for Charlie Appleby presumably in the USA. Of those 8 he has 7 winners and 1 third place finish. I like those odds....... Buick is riding mischief magic in Keeneland 6th Fantastic!🐴❤️ |
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Came in 2-9-10-6