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Post by elkurzhal on Nov 3, 2022 23:18:32 GMT -5
One great thing about doing this is it gives us all a little hedge on horses we wouldn’t otherwise be playing.
Also in case we do play a non-flightline ticket., I don’t think I’ve seen it mentioned here that happy saver missed training earlier this week with a quarter crack. Todd was hoping to get it patched and still run. He’s already the longest shot, and no foot no horse… I’d be good if the non-flightline uses just the other 6.
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 0:50:21 GMT -5
I'm so thrilled with how this is going...
Falling asleep to this, see you in the morning!
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 12:57:46 GMT -5
With the weather forecast tomorrow looking sad as sad can be, I seriously have doubts about the turf. 80% Rain...up to half inch, with 20 mile winds and gusts up to 40. Looking for a slew of scratches. An opportunity... to be brilliant. |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 4, 2022 13:04:04 GMT -5
With the weather forecast tomorrow looking sad as sad can be, I seriously have doubts about the turf. 80% Rain...up to half inch, with 20 mile winds and gusts up to 40. Looking for a slew of scratches. An opportunity... to be brilliant. Wait, what??? Where did that weather forecast come from? Not sure where you are seeing that. All six computer models I just looked at show little to no rainfall over central Kentucky into tomorrow evening. Tenth of an inch at most. Strong winds, early in the day, yes. Dubious. TW |
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Post by cherokeescot on Nov 4, 2022 13:16:55 GMT -5
I’m guessing BoW was looking at the wrong Lexington 😜
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
Posts: 836
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Post by ozzy on Nov 4, 2022 14:01:24 GMT -5
Seeing the pick 5 pool today I really think it’s worth playing tomorrow as a saver
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Post by cherokeescot on Nov 4, 2022 14:20:24 GMT -5
Seeing the pick 5 pool today I really think it’s worth playing tomorrow as a saver Sounds good . Can you come up with a $300 ticket |
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
Posts: 836
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Post by ozzy on Nov 4, 2022 15:39:35 GMT -5
Thought we did already above. Take the Pick 6 leg 1 out down to a Pick 5 and believe it is $224. Math is hard and that’s before bourbon so I could be off…
Could easily do a 3x6x4x4x2 for $288 for $.50 or single Flightline and go for $1.
Groupmeffort works for me.
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 16:24:46 GMT -5
I'll need both HIBs and American Theorem on the second ticket, which i won't really think about until we're set on our pk6... We can start a Second Ticket thread... but we're hitting the PK6!
Entirely new ticket is my thought, especially after we hit the 1st leg of our big bet.
What time in the morning will we be making the play...  we can meet for coffee before Mr. Hendry pushes all the right buttons.
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Post by merasmag on Nov 4, 2022 16:29:35 GMT -5
when will that ticket be posted? i plan to structure the day around it
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 17:33:11 GMT -5
"Now hold on a minute, Dell Lee..." badactor said to himself.
It's a question of which way to go.
When we hit the first leg of the Pick 6,
doubling down with the same picks in the Pick 5
is a strong move.
If for some reason the racing Gods
deny us the first leg of the Pick 6...
that Pick 5 singled to Flightline
may not be as attractive. Or maybe yes.
I'd just like everyone to remember to account for the chaos.
You may quote me.
Stay sharp everybody..
get a little rest after Friday Breeders Cup
and then back to work on Saturday. Giddy up!
I'm having an amazing amount of fun and I hope we win.
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Post by merasmag on Nov 4, 2022 17:49:50 GMT -5
"Now hold on a minute, Dell Lee..." badactor said to himself. It's a question of which way to go. When we hit the first leg of the Pick 6, doubling down with the same picks in the Pick 5 is a strong move. If for some reason the racing Gods deny us the first leg of the Pick 6... that Pick 5 singled to Flightline may not be as attractive. Or maybe yes. I'd just like everyone to remember to account for the chaos. You may quote me. Stay sharp everybody.. get a little rest after Friday Breeders Cup and then back to work on Saturday. Giddy up! I'm having an amazing amount of fun and I hope we win. i am quoting you. if we are out after the first leg it is a STRONG sign flightline should not be singled in any savers. jmho. |
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,115
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Post by shoes on Nov 4, 2022 18:14:13 GMT -5
For what its worth my idea of the back-up pick 4 or pick 5 was to go deep in the Classic, not to single Flightline again.
addendum: I also think we should commit to this back-up ticket and put it in before the Pick 6 starts and not allow the results of the first leg to impact the decision. As Elk pointed out, this is an effort to have ticket which gives a chance to hit if Flightline does not win AND Jackie's Warrier and/or Nest do not win- this is not to say that we would necessarily toss Jackie or Nest but that we would have alternates to both. IF Flightline and one of those 2 do not win, it will be a healthy payout, if none of the 3 win, it will be a really high pay-out and if one of the winners is double digit odds while also beating the 3 lowest priced favs, it might pay more than a pick 6 that involved the 3 shortest prices winning. Putting it in early also saves Bev from fretting about it or last minute reaching out for consensus.
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 21:35:33 GMT -5
I started a BCpk5 thread more along those lines... total spread in the Classic.
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Post by bertconvy on Nov 4, 2022 21:39:18 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 21:48:44 GMT -5
We now return to our UIC BC PK6 Project... already in progress. |
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
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Post by ozzy on Nov 4, 2022 22:05:04 GMT -5
My 2 cents…. No need to get cute, the goal is to pick winners no matter the price on the tote. Can’t get paid if you don’t pick the winners.
No Flightline fan personally at insanely low odds and can easily see zigging while everyone else zags. He is going to have to do something he has never done before and that is face a stiff challenge early, middle, and then hold off some serious horses running very fast late. However figs don’t lie and he should win by 5 here in track record time.
In the Sprint Jackie has a strong pace advantage and can’t ignore. I like Kimari as an alternate but can see Elite Power instead.
You can try to get cute in the Distaff but the Pletchers hold a strong edge over this field. Society loose on the lead is a concern, Clairiere could rebound so have to use protectively so I can see going 4 deep but don’t like it.
That’s 2x4x1 in 3 legs for $8. Money is made on the lawn with this wager and lots of ways to go. Going 4 deep in each is an option but see the Mile as the key and easily support go even deeper there. Euros in the F&M Turf and Turf for sure as see only In Italian or Moria able to compete against the 3,4,5. In the Turf muse the 2 Applebee runners. I personally like 13 and others like the 2.
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Post by Badactor on Nov 4, 2022 23:13:24 GMT -5
Thanks to ALL who posted on this thread...
I hear your beautiful minds working, working,
like "a tremendous machine."  ~ dell yount. |
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Post by merasmag on Nov 4, 2022 23:20:46 GMT -5
Thanks to ALL who posted on this thread...
I hear your beautiful minds working, working,
like "a tremendous machine." ~ dell yount. please dream up the winning ticket-then on to the 1.5 BILLION! |
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Post by goldandmyrrh on Nov 4, 2022 23:50:22 GMT -5
I like the idea of a back-up p5, and I agree with Shoes that it shouldn't be reactive to the result of Leg A in the p6. I think I've put in the least amount of time handicapping the card, plus I can count on one hand the number of multi-race wagers I've won since Breeder's Cup 1, but I did hit with a 2-2 double in my first live Breeders Cup wager in 1987, and maybe I'll hit in my last bet, for now. With that said my tix would be (1-9-10-11)-(1-2-9-11)-(2-4-6-11)-(1-3-4-6-8)-(3-5-6-7)-4 for $1280 in the P6. And (1-2-9-11)-(2-4-6-11)-(1-3-4-6-8)-(3-5-6-7)-(2-4-6) in the .50p5 for $480. gl to us all
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~ dell yount.