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BC Turf 2022
Oct 13, 2022 8:10:12 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 13, 2022 8:10:12 GMT -5
REPLAYS:
York, Juddmonte International Stakes (GI, 10F), Aug. 17th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/107/york/2022-08-17/813941
Saratoga, Sword Dancer Stakes (GI, 12F), Aug. 27th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=08/27/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Koln, Preis von Europa (GI, 12F), Sep. 25th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/226/cologne/2022-09-25/822272
Leopardstown, Irish Champions Stakes (GI, 10F), Sep. 10th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/187/leopardstown/2022-09-10/814134
Saratoga, Saratoga Derby Invitational (GI, 9.5F), Aug. 6th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=11&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=08/06/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Belmont @ Aqueduct, Jockey Club Derby Invitational (GI, 12F), Sep. 17th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=BAQ&CTRY=USA&DT=09/17/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Belmont @ Aqueduct, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (GI, 12F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/BAQ100822USA8.pdf
Kentucky Downs, Kentucky Turf Cup (GII, 12F), Sep. 10th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=KD&CTRY=USA&DT=09/10/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Del Mar, Del Mar Handicap (GII, 11F), Sep. 3rd
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=11&BorP=P&TID=DMR&CTRY=USA&DT=09/03/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Keeneland, Sycamore Stakes (GIII, 12F), Oct. 14th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=9&BorP=P&TID=DMR&CTRY=USA&DT=10/14/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Gavea, Grande Premio Brasil (GI, 12F), June 26th
Chart- www.twinspires.com/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-challenge/gran-premio-brasil
Early speed: Bye Bye Melvin, Channel Maker
Closer: Gold Phoenix, Master Piece, Nautilus, Rebel's Romance, Red Knight, War Like Goddess
Form analysis:
Bye Bye Melvin- Abbreviated season as a 5yo with only three starts since August, and reinvented as an early-speed horse. Solid N3X win at Saratoga, then towed the field around Aquemont in the Joe Hirsch Classic (GI) through honest fractions, outfinishing a quality group other than winner War Like Goddess. Will be sent to the front from rail draw, along with perennial front-runner Channel Maker assuming his pace pressing duties. Expecting him to retreat at the top of the stretch. Grade- D
War Like Goddess- Two-for-two at Keeneland, winning the GIII Bewitch Stakes each of the past two years in April. Peaked in the BC F&M Turf last year, finishing a close third behind Loves Only You after leading in the stretch. 3-for-4 this year including a victory over the boys in the Joe Hirsch last time, her only blemish being an impossible-to-close second behind Virginia Joy in a glacially-paced Flower Bowl at the Spa. Expecting Mott to have her at her best again for this race, but the American stayers division has been weak this year, so I'm not sure if she's quite as good this time around. She drew inside and gets Rosario back aboard, two plusses. Grade- B
Stone Age- 3yo Galileo colt has only managed two wins in twelve outings, both at 10F. Ran against the best in the UK/IRE in his last two, and wasn't embarrassed in either, especially when only beaten 3+ lengths by Bay Bridge in the Champion Stakes over ground that didn't suit him. Still has to prove himself going 12F, but a return to firmer going will help him, and Ryan Moore could get a nice trip from his inside draw. I'm somewhat surprised that he chose this one over Broome. Don't get caught out by this guy. Grade- B
Broome- 6yo has had an up and down kind of year, produced a solid GII win at Royal Ascot over Mostahdaf and Hurricane Lane, then shipped to the US where he ran on just too late for a close-up fourth in the Sword Dancer at the Spa. His last two were duds over soft ground including the Arc de Triomphe (GI) last time. Seems to go better on good-firm these days. Must point out that after a similar non-effort over heavy ground in the 2021 Arc, he shipped to Del Mar for this race, had Irad in the saddle, and made a furious late run to get the lead in the stretch only to get passed by Yibir late. Deja vu all over again? Will probably be featured on a few saver tickets in case he surprises, and he could. Grade- C
Rebel's Romance- After a failed attempt at a dirt career (he did win the UAE Derby), Appleby placed him on the turf at 12F and he hasn't looked back, winning four straight. Two GI wins in GER, which normally doesn't impress in the US, but he's the morning line favorite. Also taking note that William Buick has chosen his 3yo stablemate as his ride, interesting. Grade- B
Channel Maker- 8yo gelding makes his 49th start, maybe he gets pensioned from racing duties after this. Will be forwardly placed, and get swallowed up in the stretch. Grade- D
Nation's Pride- 3yo has four wins in six tries this season, only dud was in the Epsom Derby going 12F. Some horses just don't like the Epsom track. Answered the 12F question last time in the Jockey Club Derby (GIII), demolishing five overmatched 3yos. Still has yet to face his elders, and despite fast 'clock' times, he's yet to run particularly fast on the various ratings. He's also a smallish colt, and doesn't want to get in amongst horses. If you bet him to win, remember that he'll need to improve again to take this down. Grade- B
Master Piece- Deep closer is 0-for-two at 12F, has a lone GII win in the States, but did win an allowance race at KEE last year, so there's that. Overmatched. Grade- D
Gold Phoenix- Unproven at 12F, but consistently gets a check in every race. Managed to run down Master Piece (see above) in 11F Del Mar Handicap (GII) by head while getting five pounds, so there's that. Overmatched. Grade- D
Red Knight- Deep closer is 11/4-3-0 at 12F. 8yo gelding has had only three starts this year, winning at Colonial Downs before taking the GII KD Turf Cup by a nostril over Gufo (I still think Gufo won the bob.) Last out, his run in the Sycamore over C&D looked visually like strictly a prep, with the rider asking at the 3F pole, and Red Knight came sweeping up widest of all into contention, then continued to close into a blanket finish without having been asked for his best by the rider. Luis Saez takes the reigns for Maker, always a positive sign. Probably not the winner, but he could get a piece late at a big price. Don't ignore him. Grade C
Mishriff- By far the most accomplished horse in the field. Won the Juddmonte International (GI) last year, and was second there to Baaeed this season. His wheelhouse is 10F, but has a record of 4/1-1-1 at 12F, with a win in the Dubai Sheema Classic (GI) over Chrono Genesis and Loves Only You (2021 BC F&M Turf winner.) Also finished second to Adayar in the King George (GI) at Ascot going 12F. If any of those horses were in this they'd be the favorite. Wants good going to show his best. Draw a line through his last race in the Arc over deep ground, never ran a step. Frankie takes the mount for the Gosden yard. If he still has his form he can take this under skillful handling by Dettori, despite an outside draw. Grade- A
Nautilus- No.
Highland Chief- Won the Sycamore (GIII) over course and distance three weeks ago. Also won the GI Manhattan over Gufo earlier in the year. Nice horse, but a cut below many of these, and the draw did him zero favors. Grade- C
Top selection(s)- Mishriff
Contenders- War Like Goddess, Stone Age, Nations Pride, Rebel's Romance
Must use underneath- Broome, Red Knight
Got an opinion, post it here!
TW
York, Juddmonte International Stakes (GI, 10F), Aug. 17th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/107/york/2022-08-17/813941
Saratoga, Sword Dancer Stakes (GI, 12F), Aug. 27th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=08/27/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Koln, Preis von Europa (GI, 12F), Sep. 25th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/226/cologne/2022-09-25/822272
Leopardstown, Irish Champions Stakes (GI, 10F), Sep. 10th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/187/leopardstown/2022-09-10/814134
Saratoga, Saratoga Derby Invitational (GI, 9.5F), Aug. 6th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=11&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=08/06/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Belmont @ Aqueduct, Jockey Club Derby Invitational (GI, 12F), Sep. 17th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=BAQ&CTRY=USA&DT=09/17/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Belmont @ Aqueduct, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (GI, 12F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/BAQ100822USA8.pdf
Kentucky Downs, Kentucky Turf Cup (GII, 12F), Sep. 10th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=KD&CTRY=USA&DT=09/10/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Del Mar, Del Mar Handicap (GII, 11F), Sep. 3rd
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=11&BorP=P&TID=DMR&CTRY=USA&DT=09/03/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Keeneland, Sycamore Stakes (GIII, 12F), Oct. 14th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=9&BorP=P&TID=DMR&CTRY=USA&DT=10/14/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Gavea, Grande Premio Brasil (GI, 12F), June 26th
Chart- www.twinspires.com/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-challenge/gran-premio-brasil
Early speed: Bye Bye Melvin, Channel Maker
Closer: Gold Phoenix, Master Piece, Nautilus, Rebel's Romance, Red Knight, War Like Goddess
Form analysis:
Bye Bye Melvin- Abbreviated season as a 5yo with only three starts since August, and reinvented as an early-speed horse. Solid N3X win at Saratoga, then towed the field around Aquemont in the Joe Hirsch Classic (GI) through honest fractions, outfinishing a quality group other than winner War Like Goddess. Will be sent to the front from rail draw, along with perennial front-runner Channel Maker assuming his pace pressing duties. Expecting him to retreat at the top of the stretch. Grade- D
War Like Goddess- Two-for-two at Keeneland, winning the GIII Bewitch Stakes each of the past two years in April. Peaked in the BC F&M Turf last year, finishing a close third behind Loves Only You after leading in the stretch. 3-for-4 this year including a victory over the boys in the Joe Hirsch last time, her only blemish being an impossible-to-close second behind Virginia Joy in a glacially-paced Flower Bowl at the Spa. Expecting Mott to have her at her best again for this race, but the American stayers division has been weak this year, so I'm not sure if she's quite as good this time around. She drew inside and gets Rosario back aboard, two plusses. Grade- B
Stone Age- 3yo Galileo colt has only managed two wins in twelve outings, both at 10F. Ran against the best in the UK/IRE in his last two, and wasn't embarrassed in either, especially when only beaten 3+ lengths by Bay Bridge in the Champion Stakes over ground that didn't suit him. Still has to prove himself going 12F, but a return to firmer going will help him, and Ryan Moore could get a nice trip from his inside draw. I'm somewhat surprised that he chose this one over Broome. Don't get caught out by this guy. Grade- B
Broome- 6yo has had an up and down kind of year, produced a solid GII win at Royal Ascot over Mostahdaf and Hurricane Lane, then shipped to the US where he ran on just too late for a close-up fourth in the Sword Dancer at the Spa. His last two were duds over soft ground including the Arc de Triomphe (GI) last time. Seems to go better on good-firm these days. Must point out that after a similar non-effort over heavy ground in the 2021 Arc, he shipped to Del Mar for this race, had Irad in the saddle, and made a furious late run to get the lead in the stretch only to get passed by Yibir late. Deja vu all over again? Will probably be featured on a few saver tickets in case he surprises, and he could. Grade- C
Rebel's Romance- After a failed attempt at a dirt career (he did win the UAE Derby), Appleby placed him on the turf at 12F and he hasn't looked back, winning four straight. Two GI wins in GER, which normally doesn't impress in the US, but he's the morning line favorite. Also taking note that William Buick has chosen his 3yo stablemate as his ride, interesting. Grade- B
Channel Maker- 8yo gelding makes his 49th start, maybe he gets pensioned from racing duties after this. Will be forwardly placed, and get swallowed up in the stretch. Grade- D
Nation's Pride- 3yo has four wins in six tries this season, only dud was in the Epsom Derby going 12F. Some horses just don't like the Epsom track. Answered the 12F question last time in the Jockey Club Derby (GIII), demolishing five overmatched 3yos. Still has yet to face his elders, and despite fast 'clock' times, he's yet to run particularly fast on the various ratings. He's also a smallish colt, and doesn't want to get in amongst horses. If you bet him to win, remember that he'll need to improve again to take this down. Grade- B
Master Piece- Deep closer is 0-for-two at 12F, has a lone GII win in the States, but did win an allowance race at KEE last year, so there's that. Overmatched. Grade- D
Gold Phoenix- Unproven at 12F, but consistently gets a check in every race. Managed to run down Master Piece (see above) in 11F Del Mar Handicap (GII) by head while getting five pounds, so there's that. Overmatched. Grade- D
Red Knight- Deep closer is 11/4-3-0 at 12F. 8yo gelding has had only three starts this year, winning at Colonial Downs before taking the GII KD Turf Cup by a nostril over Gufo (I still think Gufo won the bob.) Last out, his run in the Sycamore over C&D looked visually like strictly a prep, with the rider asking at the 3F pole, and Red Knight came sweeping up widest of all into contention, then continued to close into a blanket finish without having been asked for his best by the rider. Luis Saez takes the reigns for Maker, always a positive sign. Probably not the winner, but he could get a piece late at a big price. Don't ignore him. Grade C
Mishriff- By far the most accomplished horse in the field. Won the Juddmonte International (GI) last year, and was second there to Baaeed this season. His wheelhouse is 10F, but has a record of 4/1-1-1 at 12F, with a win in the Dubai Sheema Classic (GI) over Chrono Genesis and Loves Only You (2021 BC F&M Turf winner.) Also finished second to Adayar in the King George (GI) at Ascot going 12F. If any of those horses were in this they'd be the favorite. Wants good going to show his best. Draw a line through his last race in the Arc over deep ground, never ran a step. Frankie takes the mount for the Gosden yard. If he still has his form he can take this under skillful handling by Dettori, despite an outside draw. Grade- A
Nautilus- No.
Highland Chief- Won the Sycamore (GIII) over course and distance three weeks ago. Also won the GI Manhattan over Gufo earlier in the year. Nice horse, but a cut below many of these, and the draw did him zero favors. Grade- C
Top selection(s)- Mishriff
Contenders- War Like Goddess, Stone Age, Nations Pride, Rebel's Romance
Must use underneath- Broome, Red Knight
Got an opinion, post it here!
TW
