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BC Mile 2022
Oct 13, 2022 8:08:10 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 13, 2022 8:08:10 GMT -5
REPLAYS:
Woodbine, Mile Stakes (GI, 8F), Sep. 17th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=9&BorP=P&TID=WO&CTRY=CAN&DT=09/17/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Longchamp, Prix de la Foret (GI, 7F), Oct. 2nd
(note: this race caller gets a little, um, excited at times. Turn your volume down a few notches so the neighbors don't call the cops.)
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822984
Newmarket, Challenge Stakes (GII, 7F), Oct. 7th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/38/newmarket/2022-10-07/819768
Keeneland, First Lady Stakes (GI, 8F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE100822USA8.pdf
Keeneland, Turf Mile (GI, 8F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE100822USA10.pdf
Churchill Downs, Arlington Million (GI, 9F), Aug. 13th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=11&BorP=P&TID=CD&CTRY=USA&DT=08/13/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Saratoga, Fourstardave (GI, 8F), Aug. 13th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=08/13/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Early speed: Beyond Brilliant, Pogo, Smooth Like Strait
Closer: Domestic Spending, Ivar, Modern Games, Order of Australia
Form analysis:
Pogo- Fine season as a 6yo, winning a GII and two GIIIs after a sightseeing trip around the Middle East over the winter. He duked it out with Kinross three times at 7F, basically to a draw. He's a confirmed front runner, and should be forwardly placed in this. Clearly best at 7F, but has three wins at a mile. He figures to have company on the engine, and it's hard to see him holding off every one of the closers, but he's got a shot if the pace is moderate. Regular rider Kieran Shoemark voted with his butt and chose Dreamloper instead, can't blame him off that one's GI win last time. Grade- B
Shirl's Speight- Did win the Maker's Mark Mile (GI) here back in April, but has regressed since then. Finished seven lengths behind Modern Games in his last, and a similar finish seems likely today. Grade- C
Dreamloper- Won her first two 5yo starts over 9F including the GI Prix d'Ispahan, then faltered twice when tried at 10F. Dropped back to a mile, won the Prix du Moulin (GI) in a 'wow' performance over Order of Australia and The Revenant, the race where Coroebus unfortunately broke down. Two month break since, but she runs well fresh, her best race is as good or better than any of these. Watch out. Grade- A
Modern Games- Career record 12/6-3-1. Won the French Guineas on 3yo debut, found 10.5F too far next out, then finished fifth dropped back to 7F. Bailed out of France and ran a strong second to Baaeed in the Sussex GI at a mile, romped in the Woodbine Mile (GI) over Ivar, then settled for second in the 8F QEII (GI) at Ascot over ground he didn't care for. If he runs back to his Goodwood/Woodbine form he will be hard to beat with a clean trip. Grade- A
Smooth Like Strait- Should be sent to the front, trying to make Amarillo by morning (Hi Spanky!), but figures to have company from a couple other early speed types. He's very consistent, and doesn't fold in the stretch, you have to get by him. Can't endorse for the win, but he could easily be the speed that holds for second or third. Grade- C
Ivar- Deep closer was brought back as a 6yo to have one more crack at this; he was fourth, two lengths behind Order of Australia in 2020, then third by a length-and-a-half last year to Space Blues (and Smooth Like Strait.) Very honest horse makes his late run every time, if he wins I'll lose my vertical bets but I'd be happy for him. Grade- B
Beyond Brilliant- Adds even more pace to the event. He seems better suited to slightly longer distances, where his speed can be rationed out more tactically, but enters this off of a GII win at a mile. This will be his first race at a track not named Santa Anita or Del Mar. Grade- C
Regal Glory- 6yo mare has a 10/6-3-0 record the last two seasons, including a GI win and two GI seconds at KEE. Ultra-consistent mare couldn't reel in loose-on-the-lead stablemate In Italian last time, but that one goes elsewhere, and the pace figures to be contested in this one. With the three early speeds to her inside, she could drop over for a cozy stalking trip which she prefers. Beat her to win. Grade- A
Malavath- 3yo filly is best over soft going. Ran an admirable second behind Kinross going 7F in France last time, and she seems better suited to races shorter than 8F. Grade- C
Order of Australia- Brought back from an injury to race as a 5yo, winner of this race here in 2020 has rounded into form in last three races, including a close third to Annapolis and Ivar here at Keeneland last month. Not sure he can win this, but a placing remains a possibility. Grade- C
Annapolis- Progressive 3yo son of War Front sports a 7/5-2-0 record, including a C&D win in the Turf Mile four weeks ago first time against older, albeit with a perfect inside pocket trip. Hard to find fault with him, should be an even better 4yo miler. Grade- A
King Cause- Mike Maker got this 7yo running well over his last three starts, but he's overmatched against this group, drew poorly. Grade- D
Kinross- 5yo gelded son of Kingman has improved this year, and his last five were a tour-de-force, with two GI wins and two GIIs, mostly at 7F, but dropped back to six last time at Ascot. He wants soft ground to give his best, and a mile may test his ability to stay, but I'd hate to watch Dettori go sailing by everybody and not have him on top of some ticket. Grade- B
Domestic Spending- Heard that Chad was so distraught about the PP14 that he considered scratching. As good of a 4yo as he was, he's no faster than five of the others entered, and he seemed to flourish at distances beyond a mile. Grade- C
Top selection(s)- Dreamloper, Modern Games, Regal Glory, Annapolis
Contenders- Pogo, Ivar, Kinross
Must use underneath- Most of them.
Got an opinion, post it here!
TW
Woodbine, Mile Stakes (GI, 8F), Sep. 17th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=9&BorP=P&TID=WO&CTRY=CAN&DT=09/17/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Longchamp, Prix de la Foret (GI, 7F), Oct. 2nd
(note: this race caller gets a little, um, excited at times. Turn your volume down a few notches so the neighbors don't call the cops.)
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822984
Newmarket, Challenge Stakes (GII, 7F), Oct. 7th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/38/newmarket/2022-10-07/819768
Keeneland, First Lady Stakes (GI, 8F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE100822USA8.pdf
Keeneland, Turf Mile (GI, 8F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE100822USA10.pdf
Churchill Downs, Arlington Million (GI, 9F), Aug. 13th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=11&BorP=P&TID=CD&CTRY=USA&DT=08/13/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Saratoga, Fourstardave (GI, 8F), Aug. 13th
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=08/13/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Early speed: Beyond Brilliant, Pogo, Smooth Like Strait
Closer: Domestic Spending, Ivar, Modern Games, Order of Australia
Form analysis:
Pogo- Fine season as a 6yo, winning a GII and two GIIIs after a sightseeing trip around the Middle East over the winter. He duked it out with Kinross three times at 7F, basically to a draw. He's a confirmed front runner, and should be forwardly placed in this. Clearly best at 7F, but has three wins at a mile. He figures to have company on the engine, and it's hard to see him holding off every one of the closers, but he's got a shot if the pace is moderate. Regular rider Kieran Shoemark voted with his butt and chose Dreamloper instead, can't blame him off that one's GI win last time. Grade- B
Shirl's Speight- Did win the Maker's Mark Mile (GI) here back in April, but has regressed since then. Finished seven lengths behind Modern Games in his last, and a similar finish seems likely today. Grade- C
Dreamloper- Won her first two 5yo starts over 9F including the GI Prix d'Ispahan, then faltered twice when tried at 10F. Dropped back to a mile, won the Prix du Moulin (GI) in a 'wow' performance over Order of Australia and The Revenant, the race where Coroebus unfortunately broke down. Two month break since, but she runs well fresh, her best race is as good or better than any of these. Watch out. Grade- A
Modern Games- Career record 12/6-3-1. Won the French Guineas on 3yo debut, found 10.5F too far next out, then finished fifth dropped back to 7F. Bailed out of France and ran a strong second to Baaeed in the Sussex GI at a mile, romped in the Woodbine Mile (GI) over Ivar, then settled for second in the 8F QEII (GI) at Ascot over ground he didn't care for. If he runs back to his Goodwood/Woodbine form he will be hard to beat with a clean trip. Grade- A
Smooth Like Strait- Should be sent to the front, trying to make Amarillo by morning (Hi Spanky!), but figures to have company from a couple other early speed types. He's very consistent, and doesn't fold in the stretch, you have to get by him. Can't endorse for the win, but he could easily be the speed that holds for second or third. Grade- C
Ivar- Deep closer was brought back as a 6yo to have one more crack at this; he was fourth, two lengths behind Order of Australia in 2020, then third by a length-and-a-half last year to Space Blues (and Smooth Like Strait.) Very honest horse makes his late run every time, if he wins I'll lose my vertical bets but I'd be happy for him. Grade- B
Beyond Brilliant- Adds even more pace to the event. He seems better suited to slightly longer distances, where his speed can be rationed out more tactically, but enters this off of a GII win at a mile. This will be his first race at a track not named Santa Anita or Del Mar. Grade- C
Regal Glory- 6yo mare has a 10/6-3-0 record the last two seasons, including a GI win and two GI seconds at KEE. Ultra-consistent mare couldn't reel in loose-on-the-lead stablemate In Italian last time, but that one goes elsewhere, and the pace figures to be contested in this one. With the three early speeds to her inside, she could drop over for a cozy stalking trip which she prefers. Beat her to win. Grade- A
Malavath- 3yo filly is best over soft going. Ran an admirable second behind Kinross going 7F in France last time, and she seems better suited to races shorter than 8F. Grade- C
Order of Australia- Brought back from an injury to race as a 5yo, winner of this race here in 2020 has rounded into form in last three races, including a close third to Annapolis and Ivar here at Keeneland last month. Not sure he can win this, but a placing remains a possibility. Grade- C
Annapolis- Progressive 3yo son of War Front sports a 7/5-2-0 record, including a C&D win in the Turf Mile four weeks ago first time against older, albeit with a perfect inside pocket trip. Hard to find fault with him, should be an even better 4yo miler. Grade- A
King Cause- Mike Maker got this 7yo running well over his last three starts, but he's overmatched against this group, drew poorly. Grade- D
Kinross- 5yo gelded son of Kingman has improved this year, and his last five were a tour-de-force, with two GI wins and two GIIs, mostly at 7F, but dropped back to six last time at Ascot. He wants soft ground to give his best, and a mile may test his ability to stay, but I'd hate to watch Dettori go sailing by everybody and not have him on top of some ticket. Grade- B
Domestic Spending- Heard that Chad was so distraught about the PP14 that he considered scratching. As good of a 4yo as he was, he's no faster than five of the others entered, and he seemed to flourish at distances beyond a mile. Grade- C
Top selection(s)- Dreamloper, Modern Games, Regal Glory, Annapolis
Contenders- Pogo, Ivar, Kinross
Must use underneath- Most of them.
Got an opinion, post it here!
TW
