BC Juv Turf 2022

[tenfurlongs]

REPLAYS:


Chantilly, Prix De Conde (GIII, 9F), Sep. 17th (Victoria Road)

Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/204/chantilly/2022-09-17/821859


Sandown, Solario Stakes (GIII, 7F), Aug. 20th (Silver Knott)



Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/54/sandown/2022-08-20/817751


Leopardstown, Killavullan Stakes (GIII, 7F), Oct. 15th (Cairo)



Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/187/leopardstown/2022-10-15/823710


Belmont @ Aqueduct, Pilgrim Stakes (GII, 8.5F), Oct. 2nd (Major Dude, I'm Very Busy, Lachaise, Battle of Normandy)



Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/BAQ100222USA9.pdf


Santa Anita, Zuma Beach Stakes (GIII, 8F), Oct. 9th (Packs a Wahlop)



Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SA100922USA10.pdf


Monmouth, Nownownow Stakes (BT, 8F), Sep. 17th (Webslinger, Oxymore)



Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=11&BorP=P&TID=MTH&CTRY=USA&DT=09/17/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB


Keeneland, Indian Summer Stakes (Listed, 5.5F), Oct. 9th (Mo Stash)



Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=6&BorP=P&TID=KEE&CTRY=USA&DT=10/09/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB


Keeneland, Bourbon Stakes (GII, 8.5F), Oct. 9th (Andthewinneris, Really Good, Reckoning Force)



Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE100922USA8.pdf


Belmont@Aqueduct, Futurity Stakes (GIII, 6F), Oct. 9th (Nagirroc)



Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=6&BorP=P&TID=BAQ&CTRY=USA&DT=10/09/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB



Top 2yo colts/geldings in UK/IRE-

Silver Knott- www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4420159/silver-knott/form

Victoria Road- www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4273958/victoria-road/form


Top 2yo colts/geldings in US/CAN-

Andthewinneris- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10787789&registry=T&rbt=TB

Battle of Normandy- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10779248&registry=T

I'm Very Busy- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10796810&registry=T

Lachaise- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10792136&registry=T&rbt=TB SCRATCHED

Major Dude- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10754302&registry=T&rbt=TB

Nagirroc- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10791859&registry=T

Packs a Wahlop- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10804290&registry=T

Really Good- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10743221&registry=T&rbt=TB

Reckoning Force- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10800916&registry=T&rbt=TB

Webslinger- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10815914&registry=T&rbt=TB

(AE) Mo Stash- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10774704&registry=T




Early speed: Nagirroc, Packs a Wahlop 

Closer: I'm Very Busy, Webslinger 


Form analysis:


Andthewinneris- Progressive in three turf tries sandwiched around a not-as-bad-as-it-looks dirt run behind Gulfport in the Bashford Manor at CD. Son of Oscar Performance won a turf sprint here on debut, closing with a rush impressively off a 46-half. First two-turn turf race was over good ground at the Spa, where he didn't stride out through the stretch but still ran a decent third in the GIII With Anticipation behind a Casse bomb and Shug's Battle of Normandy. Got firm ground but drew out in the twelve hole for the Bourbon Stakes back at Keeneland, once again showed a good turn of foot to blow by them all closing into a hot pace. He was 6-wide into the stretch and wanted to lug in, but Prat straightened him out. He'd benefit from Prat riding back, but he has other options including a Chad. I'm surprised that Romans isn't running Deer District in here, he was involved in the hot pace all the way around and still finished clear of the rest in second. Just had a best-of-99 bullet at CD. Maybe he's in an undercard race? On firm ground I think Andthewinneris has a real chance. Grade- B 

Trainer Wayne Catalano:
“If you look at it, we’ve already run over the track a couple of times." Catalano acknowledged that Andthewinneris might be downplayed by bettors because of a third-place finish Aug. 31 in the With Anticipation (G3) at Saratoga. He said that performance came with a legitimate excuse for a colt who is better suited to being a closer. “It rained pretty hard there,” he said. “The track was biased to speed. They went around there 1-2-3, and it was his first time around two turns. I thought that race set him up great for (the Bourbon), and it proved right.” Catalano said Joel Rosario will ride Andthewinneris, who had Flavien Prat aboard for the last two races.


Battle of Normandy- I know that Shug remarked that he liked this son of City of Light before his first start at the Spa, but I can't see him running back in this spot after his poor performance over yielding ground in the Pilgrim. I'm guessing that West Point wanted to have a runner on the Friday, perhaps. Maybe he disliked the going, but he did make a middle move into the turn and just flattened out. Maybe a return to firm ground could turn him around, but that's a tough nail to hang your hat on. Grade- C

No quotes.


I'm Very Busy- Strong finishes in both career efforts. Doesn't strike one as a turf runner based on pedigree, but he was favored at 8-5 on his debut at Saratoga so clearly Chad Brown knew what he had. In the Pilgrim Stakes, he ran up to eventual winner Major Dude like he was standing still, but then just couldn't get by that one. Not sure that he's good enough to win this, but he'd be hard to leave off your tickets. Grade- C 

No facetime from Chad. 


Lachaise- Another closer (and another son of Oscar Performance), he was flying from too far back but got third in the aforementioned Pilgrim. Before his Spa debut, owner Goichman said this was his best 2yo, way ahead of his other horses, and he won smartly at first asking. In the Pilgrim Stakes he was 5w into the clubhouse turn and 6w fanning into the homestretch. I'd bet he got a better sheets number than the first two finishers just based on that. If he draws inside, and can have a smooth go around the far turn, he could make some noise. Grade- C

Trainer Jorge Abreu:
“He’s doing very well,” said Abreu. “I thought he ran a really good race considering we had so much rain and he was so far behind. I wish I would have seen him a bit more forwardly placed, but that’s the way the race played out. I don’t think Jose did anything wrong. I think he’s got some good tactical speed where he doesn’t have to be way out of it back there,” Abreu said. “Now I know that if the turf is a little soft [at Keeneland], it won’t worry me.”


Major Dude- Bolt d'Oro is getting some turf runners, but this guy ran pretty well in three dirt tries before moving to turf, in the GII Pilgrim Stakes. By far the easiest trip of the top three finishers, I could see him being overbet on the strength of that victory. Not for or against, really. Grade- C

Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.:
“When he felt that horse (I'm Very Busy) he was game all the way to the wire.”

Trainer Todd Pletcher:
Pletcher said he thought I’m Very Busy was the most impressive 2-year-old turf maiden winner of the Saratoga meet and was naturally worried when he confronted Major Dude. “When I saw him revving up I said ‘Oh man, he’s got a real turn of foot," Pletcher said. “When he got to us, our colt re-engaged and found a little more.”



Nagirroc- Bought by Sol Kumin and company out of a MSW turf sprint at Horseshoe Indy where he finished second. Turned over to Graham Motion, he broke his maiden at Belmont going 6F, then ran at Baqueduct in the 6F Futurity where he necked Gaslight Dancer, which runs back in the BC Juv Turf Sprint. Pedigree says he will stretch out, Motion will have to get him to rate just a bit by post time. Grade- C

Asst. trainer Ian Wilson:
"He did exactly what we wanted. Last time, he was on the lead and we didn't feel like he needed to be on the lead (today)," Wilson said. "Manny got him settled behind horses and once he got some space to go, he went. Once he tipped him out and got somewhere to go, it seemed like he was moving well and moving comfortably. He got there and that's all that matters."


Packs a Wahlop- From many corners of the horse racing web I've been hearing talk about this guy, and I like him too. First off, I still can't figure why Jeff Mullins had him at GP in early June to run him on dirt (He was the 7-5 favorite. Not a FL-bred.) He had been purchased at OBS in April ($270K !), so maybe they just wanted a test drive before bringing him home to CA. It came up sloppy, so maybe that ruined the whole plan. Anyways, once he felt grass under his hooves he took off. His two GIII stakes wins were against big fields (14,11) and he just brushed them off like lint. Saw an interview at KEE with 'Big Money' Mike this morning, and he very happy with him. He makes his own trip if he breaks well, he can sit in behind the pace-setter(s) like Oxymore and Nagirroc, then head for home with a nice lead over the closers. Best chance of the US-based horses IMO. Grade- A 

Jockey Mike Smith:
“On top of such a big, beautiful stride, this horse is just so athletic,” said Smith. “He doesn't seem like a 2-year-old, I swear, he's four! He's naturally quick, with a very high cruising speed so he puts you right where you need to be.

Trainer Jeff Mullins:
“He's probably one of the best ones I've had my hands on for a while,” said Mullins. “When he was in Florida, he was doing things that were not normal. … Unfortunately, he hit a muddy track (at Gulfstream) and didn't really handle it that well. Once he hit the grass, I mean…(His form) may even transfer to the dirt, he's just a really nice horse.”


Really Good- Son of Hard Spun was third in two stakes races this fall, including the Bourbon last time at KEE where he couldn't gain ground on the top two in the stretch. Like me some Mike Maker in turf races, but this one seems a cut below this crowd. Grade- D 

No quotes. 


Reckoning Force- Joseph O'Brien finally got somebody to buy this horse after he won at Kentucky Downs. Ran up the track in the Bourbon, he's slow no matter what method/numbers you use. Grade- D

Nope.


Silver Knott- Charlie Appleby was quite adamant that this was his guy for this race after he won the one-mile Autumn Stakes (GIII) at Newmarket earlier this month. Progressive colt has won every race he's run in that didn't have Chaldean (GI Dewhurst Stakes-winner) in the field. Wants good-firm ground, seems the strongest of the three European entrants. Grade- A

Trainer Charlie Appleby:
"Silver Knott went into the race at Doncaster last time off the back of a smart performance at Sandown, but the ground had turned soft and he just couldn't go on it. The step up in trip was also key, and going back on a sound surface." Silver Knott has won 3 of 5 starts, two around right-handed turns, his most recent race a hard-fought win in the straight-course Autumn Stakes at Newmarket.


Victoria Road- Took five starts to break maiden, then reeled off two more in a row including a GIII 9F event around a RH bend at Chantilly last out. Beat Blue Rose Cen two back, so has some class about him. Not a typical Coolmore/Westerberg entrant, but could surprise. Grade- C

No quotes.


Webslinger- Good late run to take down the big $ Monmouth prep in September, already had a couple of good works at KEE. Nevertheless, IMO that MTH race was the weakest of the US preps. His running style could allow him to get a piece, but not a threat for the top spots. Grade- C

Jockey Dylan Davis:
“(Trainer) Mark (Casse) said he really liked this horse and that he was training well,” said Davis. “He just had a lot of trouble in his last start, in a sprint, and Mark felt he had a lot more to show. That was enough for me. I kept him covered up and was able to make that one run,” said Davis. “I thought there was a lot of speed on paper and they did go pretty fast early, but I was able to tuck him in. He was aggressive and on the bridle all the way around. I wanted him to learn a little by tucking him in."








Top selection(s)- Packs a Wahlop, Silver Knott

Contenders- Andthewinneris

Must use underneath- I'm Very Busy, Lachaise




Got an opinion, post it here!




TW

[tenfurlongs]

While going through the contenders in both the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf, one sire's name kept popping up in the pedigrees- Oscar Performance. He looks like he could turn into the next promising American turf sire. That would be fitting for a son of the late Kitten's Joy. From 71 foals in his first crop, he has 25 turf runners, 8 of whom are winners! He's first on the list of first-crop turf sires, ranked by earnings. He has an AWD (average winning distance) of 7.72 furlongs. 

I had forgotten that he tied the world-record for a mile on the turf, 1:32.13, in the Poker Stakes at Belmont Park in 2018.

www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=9&BorP=P&TID=BEL&CTRY=USA&DT=06/17/2018&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB

 

Oscar Performance race record- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9694239&registry=T&rbt=TB

First crop turf sires of 2022- www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred-breeding/sire-lists?year=2022&listType=c1&racingArea=nh&standingRegion=north-america&surface=turf&sortColumn=earnings

Sire page at Mill Ridge Farm- www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register/stallions/170569/oscar-performance


I'll be keeping an eye on his progeny for sure.


2021 Chart (DMR)- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=DMR&CTRY=USA&DT=11/05/2021&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB

2020 Chart (KEE)- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=7&BorP=P&TID=KEE&CTRY=USA&DT=11/06/2020&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB


TW

[cherokeescot]

Oct 9, 2022 9:05:16 GMT -5 tenfurlongs said:

Possible entries: Auguste Rodin, Silver Knott, Andthewinneris, Deer District, I'm Very Busy, Packs a Wahlop, Major Dude, Oxymore, Webslinger







TW

Is Mysterious Night out ? 

[tenfurlongs]

Oct 12, 2022 12:01:47 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

Oct 9, 2022 9:05:16 GMT -5 tenfurlongs said:

Possible entries: Auguste Rodin, Silver Knott, Andthewinneris, Deer District, I'm Very Busy, Packs a Wahlop, Major Dude, Oxymore, Webslinger







TW

Is Mysterious Night out ? 

From Planetsports, before last weekends' races:

...The Godolphin handler (Appleby) has an enviable strike-rate at the end-of-season global event and has won six Breeders' Cup races from just 11 runners. Three of those victories have come in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and he highlighted Silver Knott - who is due to contest Saturday's Autumn Stakes at Newmarket - as a possible to enhance that fine record. Sirenia Stakes scorer and Middle Park fourth Mischief Magic is another possible for the flight to the USA. He continued: "Silver Knott is a horse I would potentially take to America. Stepping up to a mile I think will suit him, he travels very well. "Mysterious Knight who won in Canada is a horse we'll contemplate going there with as well, but he's achieved his Group One status already and, while he hasn't been busy, he's had a few runs and is a horse we've very much got on our radar for next year."...


I think Charlie is convinced that Mysterious Night is his 2000 Guineas horse for next year, whichever country that might be (GB, FR). He's already a GI-winner, has six starts under his belt, so what is there to gain by running one more time? I'm pretty certain the horse is back in England already. He's bred to be a miler, and no more.

Once Silver Knott showed his mettle in the Autumn Stakes, he became a candidate to ship over for his GI win. He's kind of an in-between horse, probably up to 10F would suit him best, so his only shots to get a UK GI would be the St. James Palace, The Eclipse, or the Juddmonte. That's pretty deep water.

Flying Honours seems to be the logical 12F Derby horse for Godolphin. He might even be a St. Leger-type (14F), but that can wait.





TW

[tc]

Looks like Battle of Normandy may be running in this race.

Battle of Normandy is on course for the $1-million Juvenile Turf (G1). He finished second by a head in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga this summer following a debut maiden win.

[tenfurlongs]

Packs a Wahlop:

breederscup.attheraces.com/runner-profiles/packs-a-wahlop




TW

[tenfurlongs]

Friday 2yo BC races are done. I hope to have the other four races for Saturday finished by Monday.




TW

[mysaladdays]

Is this one not running? Was listed under Juvie Turf on BC site:

breederscup.com/horses/gaslight-dancer?tab=profile

[mysaladdays]

Oct 30, 2022 22:54:00 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Is this one not running? Was listed under Juvie Turf on BC site:

breederscup.com/horses/gaslight-dancer?tab=profile

okay I see he is going in the juvie turf sprint 
Too bad he's not going to dirt, I think he'd be much better over dirt. 

[ozzy]

I simply do not bet west coast sprinters on the Keeneland lawn. They will just have to beat me but usually the strategy tosses some low priced horses.

Two horse race for me in Silver Knott and Andthewinneris, with the later likely my pick given higher odds. Will use Really Good to spice up the tri.