BC Juv Turf Sprint 2022

[tenfurlongs]

REPLAYS:


Royal Ascot, Queen Mary Stakes (GII, 5F), Jun. 15th (Dramatised, Love Reigns, The Platinum Queen)



Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/2/ascot/2022-06-15/812631


Newmarket, Middle Park Stakes 2yo (GI, 6F), Sep. 24th (Persian Force, Mischief Magic)



Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/38/newmarket/2022-09-24/817908


Longchamp, Prix d'Arenberg (GIII, 5F), Sep. 1st (Lady Hollywood)



Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/211/longchamp/2022-09-01/820373


Longchamp, Prix de l'Abbaye 2up (GI, 5F), Oct. 2nd (The Platinum Queen)



Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822983


Belmont @ Aqueduct, Futurity Stakes (GIII, 6F), Oct. 9th (Gaslight Dancer)



Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/BAQ100922USA6.pdf


Keeneland, Indian Summer Stakes (Listed, 6F), Oct. 9th (Private Creed)



Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE100922USA6.pdf


Saratoga, Bolton Landing Stakes (Listed, 5 1/2F), Aug. 21st (Love Reigns)



Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=9&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=08/21/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB


Santa Anita, Speakeasy Stakes (Listed, 5F), Oct. 2nd (Speed Boat Beach)



Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SA100222USA5.pdf


Belmont @ Aqueduct, Matron Stakes (GIII, 6F), Oct. 8th (American Apple)



Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/BAQ100822USA6.pdf


Newmarket, Dewhurst Stakes (GI, 7F), Oct. 8th (Aesop's Fables)



Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/38/newmarket/2022-10-08/817913




Top 2yo sprinters in UK/IRE-

Aesop's Fables- www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4245943/aesops-fables/form SCRATCHED

Dramatised- www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4274169/dramatised/form

Lady Hollywood- www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4283978/lady-hollywood/form

Mischief Magic- www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4320831/mischief-magic/form

Persian Force- www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4175319/persian-force/form

The Platinum Queen- www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/4352817/the-platinum-queen/form


Top 2yo turf sprinters in US/CAN-

Love Reigns- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10832135&registry=T&rbt=TB

Private Creed- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10748167&registry=T

Speed Boat Beach- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10757534&registry=T

Tyler's Tribe- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10752788&registry=T

American Apple- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10786020&registry=T

Gaslight Dancer- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10808436&registry=T

Sharp Aza Tack- www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=10797230&registry=T




Early speed: Lady Hollywood, Love Reigns, Speed Boat Beach, The Platinum Queen, Tyler's Tribe (?), Sharp Aza Tack

Closer: Mischief Magic, Private Creed


Form Analysis:



American Apple- Shipped up from Kentucky to take the GIII Matron Stakes at 47-1 with a perfect pocket trip under Eric Cancel. I love that American Pharoah has turned out to be a capable turf sire, even getting sprinters. This filly would need to improve substantially to contend here. Grade- C

Trainer Daniel Leitch:
“We’ll probably go for the Breeders’ Cup,” Leitch said. “We know this is what she likes now. We’re stabled there so why not just walk her over instead of shipping her back up. She’s a filly going against the boys. If she runs good, it’s a big thing,” he added. “If not, we’ll go back against the fillies somewhere else. You have to go for it when you can.”


Dramatised- Brilliant on debut in April at Newmarket, then even better winning the Queen Mary (GII) at Royal Ascot. Off for two months, then couldn't quite see out the trip going 6F in York GII. Karl Burke is one of the best trainers in the world with 2yos, so if she's sound I'd expect improvement from the last effort. Interested to see who will ride. Grade- B

Trainer Karl Burke:
"It's fair to say she wasn't really pleasing us about a month or six weeks ago and we weren't sure which way we were going to go with her," Burke said. "But in the last two or three weeks she's really worked well and the last bit of the jigsaw was to take her away and see how she galloped round a bend and she did that exceptionally well. Dramatised and White Lavender worked round the bend after racing at Southwell and both worked very well, particularly Dramatised so it looks as though she'll take her chance in the Juvenile (Turf) Sprint as long as she's okay—you'd think that should suit her. Danny Tudhope rode her and was delighted with her."


Gaslight Dancer- City of Light colt (another young sire getting grass runners) was actually favored in the B@A Futurity off a big maiden victory at KD, held for second in a five-horse blanket finish. Injects more pace into this affair, not expecting him to be around late. Grade- D

No quotes.


Lady Hollywood- Beat males in French GIII last time after not seeing out the trip in the same York race as Dramatised. She's straightforward speed from the gate, so needs a good start and an uneventful trip, otherwise she could have too much to overcome. Grade- C 

Trainer Alice Haynes:
“We've been very fortunate to get this far,” Haynes said. “This is my first proper season training and to be having a runner at the Breeders' Cup is unbelievable. It's all very exciting. We hope for a good draw and that the rain stays away!” Lady Hollywood is scheduled to fly overseas on Saturday, Oct. 29, and take her first steps over the Keeneland soil on Tuesday, Nov. 1. After the race, Lady Hollywood holds an entry in the Fasig-Tipton November sale, and if she does not sell, the filly will remain stateside to pursue the more lucrative opportunities for 3-year-old turf sprinters.


Love Reigns- Course and distance winner in April debut. Solid fourth behind Dramatised at Royal Ascot, then easily dispatched a Listed group at Saratoga under a hands-and-heels ride from Irad Ortiz. Will need to improve again, but expecting that from Wesley Ward back at Keeneland. Certainly not a fast workout horse, regardless of 'dogs up.' Taking an optimistic view. Grade- B 

Trainer Wesley Ward:
“She's a nice filly. She came through today,” Ward said. “I'm looking forward to the Breeders' Cup at her home track at Keeneland, I'll tell you that. It was nice today that she rated kindly. She had been doing that in the morning, but morning and afternoon are two different animals. She certainly stamped herself here as our top prospect for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.”

Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.:
“They always train in behind some horses to teach them. Julio Garcia, his exercise rider, teaches them to settle and finish before they race."


Mischief Magic- Not your typical Godolphin horse, perhaps, by sprint sire Exceed and Excel out of an Elusive Quality mare. Sire did produce 2013 BC Juv Turf winner Outstrip for the boys in blue, so there's that. Won twice over good ground going 6F this summer, then they tried him around a bend, although it was RH on an AW course, but he won that GIII easily. Most recently a solid fourth behind Blackbeard, and just behind Persian Force, in the GI Middle Park Stakes. Hasn't run a bad one in five starts, but he still must prove himself at the top-level. Figures to be at the back early, which could work out with all the speed signed up. Grade- B

Trainer Charlie Appleby:
"He's got plenty of natural pace and he's definitely a player."

Jockey Pat Dobbs, after the AW stakes win:
“He didn’t jump brilliantly so I didn’t have much option but to drop in. I was always travelling but when I gave him a squeeze, there was plenty of horse left and we got there too soon. He’s got a very good turn of foot and we picked them off quickly. He’s got a good head on his shoulders. He’s relaxed and will get seven furlongs. I’m not sure how far he can go but he’s definitely going in the right direction.”


Persian Force- Won the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes at Doncaster on opening day of the flat season way back in March, and hasn't looked back. Career record 7/3-3-1. GII winner at Newmarket in July, then found only a few from Aidan O'Brien better than him in three GI races in IRE, FR, and GB. Battle-tested, consistent, high-class, has a top-shelf conditioner in Richard Hannon, and globetrotting owners with Amo Racing. Ticks every box. Grade- A

Trainer Richard Hannon:
"He will have a bit of work and is in great form. He won't need much and he will soon be on the plane to Kentucky. He ran a belter in the Middle Park until the last half a furlong. He has a great attitude and is by the best (sprint) stallion (Mehmas) we've seen for a long time. We've had mixed results with out juveniles in the States...but it looks like Persian Force is our best chance so far, and he'll be my first and last runner on grass in 2022."


Private Creed- The other likely closer on paper. Three-for-four lifetime, with a C&D win last time while turning back from 6.5F. Doesn't possess a quick turn-of-foot, but may find the race shape in his favor. Joel Rosario aboard would be a big plus also. Needs to get faster to contend for the win. Grade- C 

Trainer Steve Asmussen:
"(It) was a concern backing up in distance. He's a big horse. I did consult with Joel (Rosario) about which way to go with him as far as backing up to the 5 1/2 or going the two turns here, and just thought with where he's at with his physical development keeping him at one turn. That was obviously the correct (decision)."


Speed Boat Beach- Bayern colt ran a hole in the wind on dirt debut, but then seemed more ordinary while still winning comfortably in 5F SA turf stake. I think they ran him there knowing he wasn't ready for BC Juv at 8.5F, but there is no Juv dirt sprint to contest. I believe this is a dirt sprinter with a future if he stays sound. Grade- C

Trainer Bob Baffert:
“We filled one of the spots on the plane to Keeneland. I wasn't sure if he would like the turf or not. I told Juan (Hernandez) that if he doesn't like the turf, raise your right hand. He hopped at the start of the race. He was a little green and he kept switching leads. At the three-eighths pole, he became serious and took off. This horse has pretty serious speed.”


The Platinum Queen- Progressive filly was second to Highfield Princess when facing elders in the GI Nunthorpe Stakes, then went one better winning the GI Prix de l'Abbaye over 5F at Longchamp, holding a number of challengers safe. She was in receipt of buckets of weight in those races, but she'll still get 3lbs from the 2yo colts in this. Hollie Doyle aboard should insure maximum media interest in this initial BC race of the weekend. If the Middleham Park people win this, there will be bedlam in the winners circle. Grade- A

Trainer Richard Fahey:
“If I was to pick one out that would be suited to America she’d be very high on the agenda. She can go fast very easily and if I could pick I’d have some decent fast ground there. I remember when Oisin (Orr) broke the track record at Goodwood and I said ‘you were clocking big numbers there’ and he said ‘I could’ve gone quicker’ so she is the quickest we’ve had, but it’s hard to compare to the older sprinters."

Jockey Hollie Doyle, after the Prix de l'Abbaye win:
"She's done that brilliantly," said Doyle, whose mount was getting 21 pounds from most of the field. "She had a bit up her sleeve and had the race put to bed, but idled half a furlong out. Luckily, I had some company and she stuck her neck out again. Her biggest asset is her speed, and she was either going to go on this (soft) ground or wasn't, but thankfully it worked out well. All credit to Mr. Fahey, who is an exceptional trainer of this type of horse."

Long interview with Sporting Life: www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/watch-breeders-cup-2022-richard-fahey-qanda-on-the-platinum-queen-and-midnight-mile/204610


Tyler's Tribe- The X factor. Clearly the fastest dirt horse in Iowa this year, maybe ever. Turf is the question mark. His first work over the KEE grass was a bit of a fumble, with the horse jumping away from the 'dogs' and looking awkward out there. Would be a great story, but will wait for next workout before jumping ship. Grade- C

Trainer Tim Martin (at Keeneland):
“Kylee (Jordan) was comfortable with him out there. I was a little concerned when he bobbled a bit, but he was trying to jump the cones (on the course that were set up near the outer rail). Maybe he has a future as a jumper. I thought he did okay on it. That’s about what he always works. He doesn’t work fast. He’s not a fast work horse unless you’ve got company or ask him to.”


(AE) Sharp Aza Tack- Like Tyler's Tribe a son of Sharp Azteca, he blitzed a stakes field at MTH going 5F, before tiring late stretched out to 6.5F at KD. Would add even more early foot should he get into the race.



Top selection(s)- Persian Force, The Platinum Queen

Contenders- Dramatised, Love Reigns, Mischief Magic

Must use underneath- Private Creed, Speed Boat Beach




Got an opinion, post it here!




TW

[tenfurlongs]

I'm going to put together threads like this one for all seven BC turf races. Replays, charts, form/profiles, news, and eventually analysis. One-stop shopping so it's easy to find information in one place. If you have something to add, chime in.


2021 Chart (DMR)- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=6&BorP=P&TID=DMR&CTRY=USA&DT=11/05/2021&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB

2020 Chart (KEE)- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=6&BorP=P&TID=KEE&CTRY=USA&DT=11/06/2020&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB





TW

[tc]

Thank you for sharing, Tom.

I'm sure I speak for everyone on this board...you are amazing!

[elkurzhal]

Awesome Tom!!

[eye123]

[arsignman]

Fantastic !!

[tc]

Here is one that I don't think is listed above...a filly taking a shot?

Plans now call for American Apple to target the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint against males, scheduled for 5 ½ furlongs on Nov. 4 at Keeneland.

“I think she can really win it,” Leitch said, full of confidence in the speedy filly. “She’s a really nice filly, and she trains like a monster.

[tenfurlongs]

Lady Hollywood is shipping over for Alice Haynes & Amo Racing:


www.racingpost.com/news/breeders-cup-dream-for-alice-haynes-as-lady-hollywood-collects-prix-darenberg/576555

www.racingpost.com/news/latest/its-all-very-exciting-alice-haynes-preparing-first-breeders-cup-runner/584951

TW

[spiderjohn]

The buzz that I get from over there is about The Platinum Queen
tough group

Anyone else here ever go to Longchamp?
Spent a Saturday there long ago......

[1hooper]

Blackbeard will not be running at the Breeders' Cup next month and will instead be retired to Coolmore after the top-class juvenile was found to have a small chip in his knee after a Monday morning workout.

The son of No Nay Never won six of his eight starts this term and rattled off back-to-back Group 1 wins in the Prix Morny and Middle Park on his last two starts.

He was being trained with the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in mind, a race he was 5-2 favourite for.

[tenfurlongs]

Finished the first BC Friday race at the top of this thread. Waiting for the foreign horses to arrive and get through quarantine, will need to see how they look in the flesh before reevaluating. Please watch the replays and add your thoughts. 





TW 

[cherokeescot]

My concern here over the European horses that all their wins I believe have been on straight courses and this will be the first time they have encountered a turn.

[spiderjohn]

Agree with 10f's ranking though would move the Ward runner to the top line
Bev's concern is legit--trying to overcome a late start or adjustment is costly
Go Bears Go was a key runner for me last year

I like Wesley in here

[cherokeescot]

Brutal draw for The Platinum Queen at post position 12 going first time round a turn

[ozzy]

So so much speed signed on and as Bev mentioned, The Platinum Queen would have benefitted much more from an inside draw as said she pulls left at the start and will have plenty of room to make her own trouble. Treading lightly but why not Private Creed from off with Oxymore and Love Reins.